4-1-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

04-01-2009, 01:10 PM

Big Al

At 10:05 pm, on Wednesday, our 5* College Basketball Game of the Year is on the Texas El Paso Miners minus the points over Oregon State. Kudos to the Beavers, who entered the CBI Tournament with a record below .500. But they've won four straight games to reach the .500 mark (17-17) and their four wins were all as an underdog! In its last game, Oregon State defeated this UTEP team 75-69 at home, and now travels to El Paso for the 2nd game of this Championship series (if necessary, a 3rd game will also be played in El Paso). Will OSU make it five wins in a row tonight? According to my database, it's highly unlikely. First of all, teams playing with same-season revenge vs. non-conference foes off a win are 15-3 ATS in the NIT, CBI and CIT Tourneys since 1993. And, second, teams playing away from home are 0-17 ATS in post-season tourneys off three or more upset wins, if they won their last game by five or more points, and are matched up against a foe who is NOT off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. 5* Game of the Year on the Miners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Mr. IWS

04-01-2009, 06:22 PM

Dr Bob

2 Wednesday Best Bets.

Rotation #502 Orlando (-9 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -11.
Rotation #507 LA Lakers (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2.

3 Star Selection
***ORLANDO (-9 ½) over Toronto
04:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 502
Toronto is a 2 points worse than an average team in the 68 games that Chris Bosh has played and they’re even worse since their trade with Miami during the All-Star Break. Orlando is 8 points better than average with either Jameer Nelson (out for the season) or Rafer Alston, whom they acquired during the All-Star Break to fill the void at point after Nelson’ injury, in the lineup. Home court advantage when both teams are rested is 3 points, so Orlando should be favored by at least 13 points in this game (more if you only use Toronto’s games since acquiring Shawn Marion for O’Neal and Moon). The line is only 9 ½ points in this game perhaps because Toronto has won and covered in 4 consecutive games and appear to be “hot”. But, those 4 wins were not out of the ordinary for a Raptors team that tends to beat sub-par teams and is 14-11 ATS as a favorite of 2 points or more. That record may not seem that out of the ordinary, but it’s much better than Toronto’s 14-32-2 ATS record this season when not favored by 2 points or more. Toronto is just 3-20-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points against a team that had at least 1 night off between games and the Raptors apply to a negative 14-62-1 ATS big road underdog letdown situation that is based on their current winning streak. Toronto is also just 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after consecutive wins, including 0-11 ATS against teams with a win percentage of .650 or more. Orlando, meanwhile, is 45-21-2 ATS in two seasons under coach Stan Van Gundy when facing a team that is 3 games or more under .500. I’ll take Orlando in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.

3 Star Selection
***L.A. Lakers (-7) over MILWAUKEE
05:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 507
The Bucks are coming off a blowout victory over the Nets on Monday night, but Milwaukee is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games and they’re only 4-13-1 ATS following their last 18 victories (0-5 ATS recently). Milwaukee applies to a negative 29-78-2 ATS home letdown situation while the Lakers, who have lost two straight games, apply to a 101-40-3 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation. The Lakers are also 19-4 ATS in their last 24 road games laying 11 or less points against teams that are 2 games below .500 or worse. My ratings favor the Lakers by 7 ½ points, which is what the opening line was, so we have some line value on our side as well. Kobe Bryant has been feeling a little ill but his upset stomach should be less of an issue (or no issue) tonight and I’ll take the Lakers in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 ½ points.

Wednesday College Opinion
Oregon State at UTEP UNDER (134 ½)
I leaned with the Under in the first game of this CBI Tournament Championship series and Oregon State won 75-69 as the total went will over the posted line of 131 points. However, Oregon State made an incredible 60.5% of their shots and the teams combined for 51% shooting, which is not something that can be expected again. The pace of that game was only 2 possessions per team higher than I had projected and my math model predicts just 129 ½ total points in this game (127 ½ if it ends in regulation). If the pace of the game is the same in game 1 (2 possessions faster than expected) then the projected total would be 132 points in 40 minutes, so the game would still likely go under even if the higher than expected pace repeated itself. I’ll lean Under 133 points or more based on the line value.