4-2-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brad Diamond
BDS..
NIT CHAMPIONSHIP
Play on: 20* (708) Penn State over Baylor
Make no mistake, the Bears have more natural talent than the group from Mount Nittany. However, can’t help using the Lions in this key spot for the Blue and White. Remember, Penn State has a huge contingent of graduates in the New York area as the Lions bring the largest Alumni base in the country. Home court advantage (?), you bet! Realize Baylor is far away from their Big-12 roots and they play against the most effective half-court unit thus far in the tourney. In addition, I fully expect a controlled effort from the Penn State guards to keep the Bears run and gun mindset under control. Finally, Baylor plays out of character this evening knowing they board at 1-7 ATS as a chalk in this price range. Finally, this could be a historic game for Penn State on the basketball court

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel

4/2/09
NBA
20* Featured Play: Denver Under 208 -110 (706)

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Senators/Bruins over 5.5

Game 2 - San Jose Sharks -145

Game 3 - Phoenix Coyotes -120

[Mr. IWS]

Beat Your Bookie

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Thursday


NCAA Basketball


100* Play Baylor (-4) over Penn State (NCAA)

Baylor is 12-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court the last 3 seasons
Baylor is 6-1 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days
Baylor is 15-5 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons


---------------------------------------------------------------------

Other Hoops & Hockey Plays


50* Play Utah (+5) over Denver (NBA)

30* Play Boston (-240) over Ottawa (NHL)

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Nuggets -5

NCAA:

1* Penn State +4

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets - Thursday April 2, 2009 10:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 208 (-110)

Ai Simulator 3* graded play Under Denver/Utah. AiS shows a 72% probability that 205 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 33-12 UNDER mark for 73% victories since 2003. Play under with home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 and is an explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season facing an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 89-41 UNDER for 69% victories since 1996. Play under with all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 and is a good shooting team shooting >=46% on the season facing an hot shooting opponent with 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots. Denver is a rock solid 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a victorious record - 2nd half of the season this season; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots in the 2nd half of the season this season. take the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

M@LINSKY

4- Denver -5

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover

Denver -4

Maybe the Jazz can prove worthy on the road, but I doubt it in this spot.Utah is 0-10 against the West's top nine teams when not playing in Salt Lake City. Denver is playing its best ball.The Nuggets are 9-1 in their last 10 games, 13-2 in their past 15 games at the Pepsi Center. They are precariously holding on to the No. 2 seed in the West.Denver has been eliminated in the first-round of the playoffs during each of the past five seasons. Each time the Nuggets had to open their playoff series on the road.They don't want that to happen again.Utah is 1-5 straight-up and against the spread in its last six away matchups. Its only road win during this span was versus Oklahoma City.Carmelo Anthony is heating up for the Nuggets, averaging 30.9 points in his last seven games.The Nuggets' confidence is up. They should be fully focused as their next three games are against the Clippers, Timberwolves and Thunder.

[Mr. IWS]

Doc s***** NBA's pick
Cleveland vs Washington => Under

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
utah/playmaker

[Mr. IWS]

Antony Dinero

UTAH at DENVER
Pick: OVER 209

Utah's last trip to Denver ended in a 117-97 loss on Jan. 25, even with Carmelo Anthony out with a broken hand. The Jazz simply struggle away from Salt Lake City, and are a little banged up and humbled after getting trounced in Portland. That will help them start well and focused against the Nuggets, but over the course of 48 minutes, look for Denver to disrupt the Jazz enough with ball pressure in the backcourt and solid rebounding up front to sail away with a convincing win. Take the Jazz and the over

[Mr. IWS]

Bill Marzano

Utah at Denver
Play: Denver -5

I really like Denver in this game @ home vs Utah...The Northwest Division-leading Nuggets are looking for the 5th win in a row and move closer to securing home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs...the second and seventh seeds are separated by just 2 1/2 games...Denver has won 9 of 10...they've won a season-high six straight and 13 of their L15...Utah has lost 5 of 6 on the road...the Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog....0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog...Denver is a LOCK

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Hockey

3 units on Ottawa +200
3 units on Anaheim +150
3 units on Los Angeles +105

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -7.5

The Sixers host the Bucks in an Eastern Conference clash in Philadelphia Thursday evening in a terrific scheduling spot.That occurs as Milwaukee takes to the road of a home game last night after having been on the road their previous four games. That's very favorable for the 76ers considering teams in this role are just 10-25 ATS if they own a win percentage of .475 or less and their opponent was home in its last game. Look for Philadelphia to improve to 14-5-1 ATS in this series when playing with same season revenge here tonight.Lay the points with the Sixers.

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - BAYLOR BEARS

As impressive as Penn State was in rocking Notre Dame on Tuesday, I don't think they will be able to do it again against the senior-laden Bears.

Yes, Penn State will have another 16 busloads or so of fans in the stands, but Baylor won't mind being in the "underdog" role here, as the Bears have been road-bound for quite some time, and they have come out of each roadie with the win.

Loved what I saw from the Bears on Tuesday night, as they just shredded San Diego State. You can see in their eyes they will not be satisfied without leaving NYC without this NIT title.

I have no issue laying a few points with Baylor tonight, as I suspect this one will be close for a while, but come final buzzer, the Bears will be wearing the crown both straight up, and against the spread.

Lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

4 Units Baylor -4

[Mr. IWS]

C-Stars Sports

5000 Units NIT Tournament Championship Game of the Year - Baylor/Penn St. UNDER the total
50 Units Milwaukee/Philadelphia UNDER the total
50 Units - NHL - Detroit over St. Louis
50 Units - NHL - San Jose/Edmonton UNDER the total

[Mr. IWS]

The prezz NA
Baylor -3.5 (-110) / 3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Eddie Roman

2500 Dollar Linesmakers Lament NBA Lock

Denver Nuggets -5 over Utah

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe


NBA Basketball
Jazz +5 over Nuggets

NCAA Basketball
Penn State +3.5 over Baylor

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers
Big Ticket - Wizards

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | NBA Sides
dime bet
706 DEN -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 705 UTA
Analysis: The Northwest division is in a wild race between Denver, Utah and Portland. These 3 teams have similar records and the pattern between them is that they can't win on the road. The Jazz, Nuggets and the Blazers are 19-0 SU at home against Northwest opponents and for this game I doubt that the Jazz can stop this trend.

The Jazz were spanked last game in Portland by 104-125 and they never were in the game. I remember that the Jazz was playing a back to back game, as they faced the Knicks in the previous day, so we might consider that it was a bad spot for them. However the Jazz simply struggle playing away from Salt Lake City no matter the circumstances. In fact they are 3-8 ATS & 1-10 SU as road underdogs against Western teams and it's important to say that the only win was in Memphis (they were shorthanded, so they were dogs) so technically speaking they are still winless on the road against Western top caliber teams. Why they can't compete on the road? The answer is pretty simple: they can't protect the paint and they are systematically outmuscled by their opponents. Despite having Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko available, the Jazz was outscored in the paint 38-50 by the Blazers. A deep look to the stats and the Jazz are ranked just 25th in points in the paint allowed per game allowing 42.4 ppg. Only the Thunder, Clippers, Kings, Knicks and the Warriors have worse numbers!! For some reason since the New Year, they are 0-7 ATS in those games.

The Nuggets meanwhile are rolling right now. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games and all pieces are falling together (Carmelo Anthony is heating up averaging 30.9 points in his last seven games). After a bad stretch the Nuggets showed some mental toughness winning back to back games on the road in New Orleans and in Dallas. The Jazz lead the series by 2-1 and this game will clinch the series, so this is an important game for Denver, as they don't want to lose the tiebreaker. Curiously the Nuggets are 3-0 ATS in those games and in the last game in Utah (already in March), the Nuggets were pretty competitive. They played in the previous night at home against the Blazers and the Jazz were in the middle of the best stretch of the season. Despite that the Nuggets led the game by 10 points at the halftime (47-37), they ran out of gas in the second half, feeling the effect of a back to back game.

I expect the Nuggets to roll tonight. They are playing better basketball right now and they won't have any kind of mercy of the Jazz. The spread is relatively short for this game. In the first three games between these teams the line was 8, 8 and 9.5 points, so having the chance to grab 4 points is a big deal for us. Take the Nuggets in here.

[Mr. IWS]

kirkwins.com
3* Baylor -4 vs Penn St.

3* Philadelphia -7.5 vs Milwaukee




The complimentary play record on the star basis is: 781-624 for point spread plays, and 0-1, -2 stars for moneyline plays.

The last 33 comp plays are 23-9-1 on games, and 69-26 (72.6%) on stars.

[Mr. IWS]

charlies 500* two team parlay over 198.5 76ers/Bucks and over 138 baylor/penn st
30* bucks +5
20* over 208 nuggets/jazz
20* penn state +3.5
10* under 196.5 cavs/wizards
10* free play jazz +5

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday's Card
10 Dime Penn State

10 Dime Jazz

10 Dime Jazz/Nuggets UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso Thurs
Kelso

20 Penn St
20 Under Penn St/Baylor

10 Nuggets

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Baylor
3 Nuggets

ATS Financial Package
3 76ers

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
5 76ers
50 PSU
50 PSU Under
100 Bucks Over
100 Nuggets Under
200 Wizards Under

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet

707 Baylor -3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 708 Penn St .
Analysis: Stan is Betting BAYLOR today. Stan notes that this Baylor team is on a mission as this team had high expectations coming into the season and then a mid season slump killed their momentum. They made a run at it during the Big 12 tournament beating Nebraska , Kansas and Texas before losing the Championship Game to Missouri . Now they are continuing their run in the NIT as they have rolled thru all opponents. Tonight they take down the NIT Championship as they win this game by 8-11 points. TAKE BAYLOR as STAN SHARP'S TRIPLE DIME NIT GAME OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

indiancowboy


4 Unit Play. #704. Take the Washington Wizards +10.5 over the Cleveland Cavs (Thursday @ 8pm). We are rolling along in the NBA as we have won 6 of 7 (6-1) in that stretch as we look to post a great April. It is no secret that these two teams hate each other. From the hard fouls of Haywood, to Deshawn Stevenson and Lebron having words, to the playoffs when these two teams met, these teams freaking hate each other. Washington actually beat this team by 3 the last time they played at home. We remember that game as we took Washington in that contest. The last 3 of 4 in this series has gone under and Wash has covered the last 3 of 4 in this series as well. Arenas is expected to be back for this game as well as Songaila as they are looking forward to this game. Washington played much better at home of late beating the Kings, losing to the Pistons by 2 (covering the spread), beating Charlotte by a bucket outright at home and losing to Chicago by 2 points at home as well. The wrench in this equation is Arenas as I think the Wiz play better without him the majority of the time, nevertheless, as a dog player, it is tough to ignore the Wiz here catching the 10.5. Who knows, prior to game time it could be even higher. We get the Underdog today, at home, who although does not have revenge as Cleveland does, still will look to play their best basketball as they are 3-1 ATS against this team the last 4 games and have covered both games against the Cavs this year. This is the biggest public play on the board with Cleveland and we are going against that. The Wiz have done well against the Pistons, Bulls, Bobcats and Pacers at home as Crittenton, Butler and Jamison are getting it done. For this game, Arenas and Songaila are both expected to be back. Arenas remember got his feet a bit wet in a game prior to this as he really wants to step for his team in this game - hopefully he doesn't ruin their chemistry. Nevertheless, with the total moving up by 5 points, this makes me think that the dog will be active today and I will ride the Wiz at home. The Cavs are 2-6 ATS as big favorites of late, 3-7 ATS as favorites of late and Underdog is 5-0 ATS in this series of late as well.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 138 between Baylor Bears & Penn State (Thursday @ 10pm est). If you wait a bit for this line, it might get up to 139 prior to game time as the public money comes in. I favor the Under here for several reasons as I have tracked these two teams through the NIT and this is why I took the Under between Notre Dame and Penn State the other day. Give both of these schools credit for making it this far. The bottom line here is you have a very good Penn State defense facing a very good Baylor offense. This is the NIT Championship of course. Baylor has consistently put up 70+ points in this NIT tournament including 74 against Georgetown, 84 against Virginia Tech, 74 against Auburn, 76 against San Diego State and now facing a Baylor team who they will likely put up 70+ as well. The last total closed at 138 as Baylor and San Diego State's final score was 76-62. What's impressive is that San Diego State was a top 40 team coming into that game and Baylor handled them with relative ease. What's interesting is that for Penn State to win this game, it needs to go Under. After all, when they won at Florida with their stifling defense, they won 71-62 (133) and beat Notre Dame 67-59 (126). Baylor has hit its stride late into the tournament but remember this team has had the goods to beat Arizona State, Providence and win the Big 12 Championship. For starters, I think that Penn State is a better defensive team than San Diego State so I do not expect Baylor to put up 76 points in this game. Penn State loves to control the pace of a game and that is why this team held Notre Dame to 59 points who is from the Big East (although ND was playing a ton of unders the last 11 or so games in the season) and held Florida to 62 points in Florida. So, Penn State will want to play a slower paced, and will provide plenty of defensive intensity. What else would you expect from a Big 10 team? I expect Baylor to try to speed it up, but let's not forget that Baylor is 10-2 to the Under when they face winning teams of 60% or more meaning they are not able to get up their shots as easy or run their offense as smoothly. I do not believe this game will be "reffed" tightly as they will let both teams be agressive on defense. The Underi s 4-1 for the Nittany Lions on neutral sites as well. I have this game at 133 in my calculations, so I will take the 5 point edge here for the Under overall.

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners

1* Penn State +4

Free Denver -4