4-4-09

Brandon Lang

50 Dime Villanova

20 Dime Connecticut

FREE - Over Michigan State/Connecticut

Scott Spreitzer

Game: Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks Apr 4 2009 1:05PM
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
Reason: I'm taking the points with the Raptors on Saturday afternoon. Tough spot for New York. They're just 1-6 ATS as a favorite in their last seven tries. They may be less than 100% healthy for this one, also. Quentin Richardson and Larry Hughes are both listed as questionable with sprained ankles. But the main reason I'm siding with the Raptors is because of...the Raptors. Following back-to-back losses to Charlotte, Toronto came out on March 21 and said they're playing every game to win, rather than settle for the disappointing season they have incurred. Apparently, it was more than lip-service. The Raptors have won and covered five straight since March 22, by an average score of 112-to-100! The Knicks, meanwhile, look as though they're playing for the lottery. New York has dropped three straight and they're 1-9 in their last 10, overall. The Knicks have seemingly given up on the defensive end, allowing 110.2 ppg during the 10-game stretch. They have allowed their opponents to connect on 52.6% of their FGA in the nine losses. And it must be noted that a couple of those defeats came against the lowly Clippers and Kings. The Knicks have covered just 3 of their last 13 at home and I don't believe they should be favored in this one. I'll grab the points with the team that looks like they're still "in it to win it." The Raptors are my Saturday Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Chico1856]

Dr Bob FREE opinion

Saturday NCAA Analysis
Michigan State (+4) over Connecticut
The Big East is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers and the public during the post-season as Big East teams are just 11-15 ATS in post-season games against non-conference opponents this year (8-11 ATS in the NCAA Tournament) and the Big East is 77-82-1 ATS in all non-conference games this season. Connecticut has been one Big East team that has bucked that trend, as the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament so far, but Michigan State has played well too and my ratings only favor U Conn by 3 points without factoring in whatever advantage the Spartans may have for playing this game in nearby Detroit. Teams playing in their home state are a profitable 119-79 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but the advantage for Michigan State is not as much as it might be if this were not a Final Four game. The portion of a Final Four crowd that is not part of the 4 schools’ ticket allotment isn’t as localized as in the first two rounds or the regional rounds since the extra seats are more likely to be filled by corporate sponsors and people that have no affiliation with any of the participating schools. However, a good number of those tickets are likely to find themselves in the hands of Michigan State backers more so than Connecticut backers, so the Spartans are still likely to have the crowd advantage in this game. The line value favors Michigan State even without adding any advantage for playing in Detroit and Tom Izzo’s teams have a history of playing well in the NCAA Tournament (25-14-1 ATS) and the Spartans are 17-4-1 ATS in NCAA Tourament games when seeded #5 or better and not favored by 9 points or more. I’ll consider Michigan State a Strong Opinion at +4 or more (2-Star Best Bet at +5) and I’d lean with the Spartans at +3 ½ or +3. My predicted total is 133 points.

Villanova (+7) over North Carolina
Villanova presents an interesting match-up for North Carolina, as the Wildcats’ guard-heavy lineup should be able to penetrate the Tarheels defense while also taking advantage of North Carolina’s mediocre perimeter defense (34.3% 3-pointers allowed). The Cats may not have an answer for UNC All-Americaon Tyler Hansbrough, but Hansbrough isn’t quick enough to defend Villanova’s top scorer Dante Cunningham. The Wildcats have picked up their level of defense during the tournament in limiting a couple of very good offensive teams (UCLA and Pitt), but North Carolina is the best offensive team in the nation and good defensive teams haven’t had much success stopping the Tarheels’ attack this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 7 points using the entire season, but it’s clear that Villanova is better now than they were earlier in the season and using games since January would favor the Tarheels by just 5 ½ points. Underdogs of 7 points or more are 8-1 ATS in the national semifinals and I’ll lean with Villanova +7 points or more. My math predicted total is 159 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

3* Toronto

4'* UConn
3* NC

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Orlando. Like many NBA clubs, the Hawks play a lot better at home than they do on the road. Atlanta just dropped its fifth straight road game (104-92 at Boston), yet it is 29-9 at home in Philips Arena. Tonight, Orlando comes to town off its biggest win of the season -- a 116-87 dismantling of Cleveland, who has the best record in the league. This will be a tough game for Orlando to follow through and win, given its "perfect" game last night. And it also won't help matters that the Hawks will be playing this game with revenge from a 121-87 whitewash back in January. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Magic in this situation, but consider that teams playing with revenge from a 34-point (or worse) loss are an awesome 56-23 ATS if they're off a SU/ATS loss, and they are not an underdog of more than 13 points. And if our 'play-against' team (here, Orlando) is off a game which it covered by 7+ points, then our 56-23 stat zooms to 29-6 ATS. Finally, the Hawks are 11-2-1 ATS their last 14 at home. NBA Roadkill on Atlanta. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

PPP
3 michigan state under
3 atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman---------North Carolina
Millionaire--------Michigan St

[Mr. IWS]

Ness

20* Perfect Storm - UNC