4-7-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Memphis.

At 7:05pm our High Roller selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves 'over' the total.

At 8:10pm our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Minnesota Twins.

At 8:05pm our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros 'under' the total.

[Mr. IWS]

**EARLY** Ben Burns Afternoon Over/Under WINNER!
MLB - Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox 2:05 PM ET
under 8 *6

[Mr. IWS]

Burns Baseball

Baseball (MLB)

UNDER white sox / royals

Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Game Time: 4/7/2009 2:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Kansas City and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. With yesterday's game postponed, Meche and Buerhle get to square off against each other for this afternoon's "opener." I expect that to result in a "pitcher's duel." Buehrle, who has been one of the most consistent starters in the league over the last decade, was 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA against the Royals at home last season. He's seen the UNDER go 7-2-1 his last 10 starts against KC. Note that the Chicago southpaw has seen the UNDER go 12-6-1 his last 19 April starts. Buehrle goes up against Royals' ace Gil Meche, who has seen the UNDER go 3-1 his last four starts against the White Sox. The Royals have seen the UNDER go 78-60-6 their last 84 games against divisional opponents, including 2-0 their last two vs. the White Sox. Meche has pitched each of KC's last two season openers. He allowed just four runs in those games, while going 13 1/3 innings. Not surprisingly, both stayed below the total. Overall, he's seen the UNDER go 11-7 his last 18 April starts. On a chilly afternoon in Chicago, look for Meche and Buehrle to "cool" off the bats once again.
PADRES

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Game Time: 4/7/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Padres Reason: I'm laying the small price with SAN DIEGO. I lost with the Padres in yesterday's opener. Peavy pitched relatively well but the Padres didn't give any run support. What else is new? The Padres send another high-quality starter to the mound today, as Chris Young was an All-Star in 2007. This time, I expect the bats to provide him with significantly more run support. Former Padre Randy Wolf gets the call for the Dodgers. The veteran southpaw has a very poor 5.94 ERA as starter against the Padres. His last start against San Diego came when he was also a member of the Dodgers, in June of 2007. In that outing, he allowed eight hits, three walks and five runs in just five innings. While he finished last year on a high, note that Wolf has seen his various teams go just 8-12 his last 20 road starts in April, including 2-4 his last six. While Young missed a couple of months (due to getting hit in the face with a line drive) last season, he still finished with a respectable 3.96 ERA. He's even tougher than those stats reveal though. In fact, since the start of the 2006 season, opposing hitters are batting a mere .204 against him. How good is that? That's the best mark in the majors during that span, for any pitcher that has thrown a minimum of 300 innings. While the 6-foot-10 Young struggled in spring, that's not necessarily cause for concern as he's never fared well in spring training. As Young noted, "I feel good, and I get to go home..." Note that Young began last year by allowing just one run through 5 2/3 innings, en route to a 2-1 San Diego victory over Houston on 04/01. In fact, a closer look shows that he's allowed a mere five earned runs over this last five home starts in April, going 33 1/3 innings during that span. That's a 1.35 ERA! The price on this game has dropped substantially, which I feel provides us with excellent line value. I expect Young to get the better of Wolf this evening and look for the Padres to even up the series. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NBA

Basketball (NBA)

GRIZZLIES

Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game Time: 4/7/2009 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies Reason: I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. With the Blazers battling for playoff seeding and the Grizzlies playing strictly for pride, this game is more important to Portland. Don't tell that to the Grizzlies though, as they're currently playing some of their best basketball of the season. In fact, they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games, including an upset win over the Mavericks in their last game here at Memphis. Playing with "triple revenge," they'd love to keep that winning streak in tact for another day. While the Blazers certainly want to bounce back with a victory, I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot for them. They're coming off a big game (102-88 loss) at Houston and they've got another really big one (at San Antonio) on deck tomorrow, followed by a game vs. the Lakers after that. In other words, it should be easy to overlook the lowly Grizzlies. Note that the Blazers are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they played the front end of back to back games. In addition to potentially looking ahead, the Blazers are still feeling very happy just to be in the playoffs. After losing at Houston, Joel Przybilla commented: "Of course, we would have rather won, but we're still in the playoffs. For guys that have been here a while ?K through a lot of the downs, it's very gratifying for us to know we're going to get in the playoffs..." Note that Portland hasn't been nearly as strong on the road. Indeed, the Blazers are 31-7 at home but just 17-21 when playing away from the Rose Garden. The Grizzlies, who are now a highly profitable 20-10 ATS their last 30 games, are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they were coming off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. Look for them to keep their positive momentum going for another day, improving to 8-3-1 ATS the last dozen times that they played a home game with a total in the 190 to 194.5 range. *Best Bet
OVER raptors/hawks

Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 4/7/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Toronto and Atlanta to finish OVER the total. The Hawks are off a low-scoring (88-82) home loss vs. the Magic on Sunday. Facing a defensively-challenged Toronto team which is now offiically eliminated from playoff contention, they should be able to score significantly more points this evening. Despite Sunday's loss vs. the Knicks slipping beneath the total (still had 215 points) the Raptors have seen the OVER go 3-1 their last three home games and 7-4 their last 11 games here. The Raptors have reached triple-digits in five straight home games and in 10 of their last 12 here. However, they've also allowed opposing teams to score a minimum of 99 points in nine of those 12 games. The Raptors last four games here have all produced greater than 200 combined points and they've averaged a whopping 226.8. It's true that the Hawks can be pretty tough on the defensive side of the ball. However, their defense isn't typically as strong on the road, as it is in Atlanta. Indeed, they allow an average of only 92.7 at home but they allow a much higher 99.8 points when playing away from Atlanta. A closer look shows that the Hawks have allowed a minimum of 98 points in nine of the last 10 road games. Not surprsingly, four of their last five road games have finished above the total. The Raptors, who are currently very slight underdogs, have seen the OVER go 8-2 the last 10 times that they were coming off an upset loss. They've also seen the OVER go 4-2 this season when listed as home underdogs of three points or less. Meanwhile, we find the OVER go a perfect 4-0 when the Hawks were listed as road favorites of three points or less. Looking back a little further and we find the OVER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Hawks were in that role. Additionally, it's worth noting that the Hawks have seen the OVER go 37-16-1 the last 54 times that they faced a team with a losing record, during the second half of the season. I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than most are expecting with the OVER improving to 8-2 the last 10 times that the Hawks traveled to Toronto. *Blue Chip
BULLS

Game: New York Knicks vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 4/7/2009 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'm laying the points with CHICAGO. The Knicks managed to split their home and home series with the Raptors over the weekend. That doesn't mean that they're playing well though. Indeed, they're just 2-10 their last 12 games. Tonight, they'll face a Bulls team which is coming off a 9-point win over the Nets and which has now won four straight home games. Note that they won those games by an average of 10.5 points per game. Looking back further and we find the Bulls at an extremely impressive 11-1 their last 12 games here. The lone loss during that stretch came vs. the Lakers. Still looking to wrap up a playoff berth, I expect the Bulls recent homecourt dominance to continue this evening. These teams did split a pair of close games against each other in December and January. However, as evidenced by their recent winning streak at the United Center, the Bulls are currently playing a lot better now than they were then. While the Knicks score a ton of points, they give up even more. Heading into tonight's game, they're allowing 108.2 per game. The Bulls are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games against teams which average 99 or more points per game. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 18-9 ATS on the season, when matched up against a team which scores 99 or more. The recent win and cover vs. the Nets brought the the Bulls to an outstanding 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS their last home games played in the month of April. Look for them to improve on those stats here with a highly motivated effort leading to a double-digit victory. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Tuesday ...

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FREE - Memphis Grizzlies (See daily video for your analysis)

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman---------------------Seattle Mariners
Millionaire--------------------Atlanta hawks

[Mr. IWS]

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