4-8-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

04-08-2009, 02:15 PM

Larry Ness' 15* Daytime Dominator (5-2 MLB start in '09)
My 15* Daytime Dominator is on the Phi Phillies at 3:05 ET. The Phillies won the World Series last year for the first time since 1980. However, the team's title defense will be short-lived if the team which led the NL in HRs (214) last year and was tied for second in runs scored (799) can't hit any better than it's done in its first two games of 2009. The Phillies have lost back-to-back games to the Braves, 4-1 (Sunday) and 4-0 (Tuesday). In the process, they've managed just 10 hits (only three for extra-bases with zero HRs), collectively batting .154 (team hit ,255 last year). As for the Braves, after reaching 14 straight postseasons from 1991-2005, they lost 90 games last season for the first time since 1990, finishing fourth in the NL East while missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season. However, free-agent Derek Lowe threw eight shutout innings in his Braves debut on Sunday night, then Jair Jurrjens and four relievers combined on a six-hitter in the team?s 4-0 win last night. Kelly Johnson homered on the game?s first pitch, while Chipper Jones also hit his first HR of the year. Are the Braves back? Let's not get ahead of ourselves, as the Braves were just 29-52 on the road last year, losing $1,834 vs the moneyline (3rd-worst mark in all of MLB). The Braves will go for what would be a surprising three-game road sweep of the defending champs with Javier Vazquez (came to Atlanta in an off-season trade with the White Sox) on the mound. Vazquez?s best years came in the NL East with the Expos from 2001-03 but we've seen real swings in his performances lately. He went 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA for the White Sox in 2006, then bounced back to go 15-8 (3.74) in 2007. However, despite the White Sox making the postseason last year, Vazquez was 12-16 with a 4.67 ERA, with his 16 losses representing a career single-season high. The good news for Braves fans is that he finished spring training with a 2.66 ERA. The Phillies will counter with Joe Blanton. Blanton was 5-12 in 20 starts with Oakland last year but he was acquired from the A's by the Phils last July. The right-hander went 4-0 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 regular-season starts with Philadelphia (team was 9-4) and then was even better in the playoffs. He was 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts (Phils were 3-0), including a win in Game 4 of the World Series. I expect the big right-hander to fare well vs the Braves this afternoon, as the Braves were abysmal last season in road day games vs righties. The numbers speak for themselves, with Atlanta going 3-16 (minus-$1,425) while averaging 4.1 RPG in this situation. Of course, Blanton will need some run support to win but why shouldn't the Phils break out of their hitting slump here vs Vazquez. The veteran righty owned a 5.40 ERA in 18 road starts last year. Daytime Dominator 15* Phi Phillies.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Revenge Rout (5-2 MLB start)
My 15* Revenge Rout is on the Bos Red sox at 7:05 ET. The Red Sox and Rays season-opener was delayed one day by bad weather but on Tuesday the Red Sox beat the upstart Rays 5-3. Josh Beckett served notice "he's back," going seven innings while allowing just two hits and one run, with 10 Ks. Wednesday's second game of the series features Scott Kazmir (TB) and Jon Lester (Bos), two of the top young left-handed pitchers in MLB. Lester won the World Series clincher for Boston in 2007 and was superb in 2008, which was his first full season since recovering from lymphoma. He went 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, as the Red Sox went 22-11 (plus-$1,225) in his starts (his moneyline mark ranked 9th among MLB starters). To put Lester's fast start to his career in perspective, he's 27-8, which is a .771 winning percentage. It's the highest of any pitcher since 1900 with at least 25 decisions (not bad!). Scott Kazmir led Tampa Bay in ERA (3.49) for the fourth straight year, finishing 12-8 despite missing the season?s first month with a strained throwing elbow. Kazmir is 6-7 with a 3.68 ERA in 23 career starts vs the Red Sox including postseason (Rays are 12-11) but 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last seven outings against them including a pair of starts without a decision in the ALCS. Meanwhile, Lester was 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven regular-season starts vs Tampa Bay (Boston was 7-0), before he lost both of his starts against the Rays in the ALCS while posting a 4.97 ERA. It's payback time for Lester in this one and why won't he do just that? The Red Sox are 24-7 in his Fenway starts (including the postseason) since 2006, including a spectacular 15-3 (2.67 ERA) last year. The Rays were mediocre vs lefties in 2008 (26-24) and that includes an 11-14 record in night games, where they averaged 3.8 RPG. Meanwhile, the Red Sox went 27-13 vs lefties in 2008, including 17-6 at home (12-4 in night games at Fenway, averaging 6.9 RPG!). Revenge Rout 15* Bos Red Sox.

Good Luck...Larry