Mr. IWS
04-13-2009, 12:42 PM
BURNS NBA
Basketball (NBA)
UNDER bulls/pistons
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons Game Time: 4/13/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Pistons and Bulls to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met three times this season and all three have finished above the total. However, the most recent of those games (3/24) would have finished below this evening's higher over/under number, as the final combined score came in at 190. Looking back a bit further and we find that five of the last eight meetings have finished with 190 or fewer combined points. Both teams are still jockeying for playoff positioning and I expect that to ensure that we see a solid effort from both defenses. The Bulls have seen six of their last nine road games finish below the total. While the Pistons have seen their last couple of games sneak above the number, they've still seen the UNDER go a profitable 24-14 (63%) the last 38 times that they played a home game where the total ranged between 195 and 199.5 points. The Pistons, who lost last month's meeting at Chicago, have also seen the UNDER go 57-39 the last few years when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go 19-13 when coming off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. I expect those numbers to improve this evening. *Blue Chip
OVER raptors/wizards
please check back for writeup
BUCKS
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 4/13/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm laying the small number with MILWAUKEE. Even casual fans know that the Magic have had a much better season than the Bucks. On the surface, they've also got more to play for. The Bucks are playing out the string while the Magic are looking to bounce back from back to back losses and looking to build some momentum for the postseason. So, why are the Bucks favored? Well, there are several reasons. For starters, the Bucks are playing at home and this is their final home game of the year. Also, the Magic are already locked into the third seed. Additionally, they're not healthy. While they've had plenty of time to deal with the loss of point guard Jameer Nelson, now they're also expected to be without both Lewis and Turkolu. Making matters even more difficult, they'll also likely see limited minutes from Dwight Howard, who played less than normal in Saturday's loss. The Bucks snapped a four-game losing streak with a convincing 115-98 win over Oklahoma City on Saturday with Richard Jefferson tying a season high with 35 points. That victory showed that they actually do care about finishing up strong. As forward Charlie Villanueva noted: "We're trying to finish the season out strong on a positive note. We're playing to win every game. We're not playing for the lottery, lottery balls, or anything like that." Non-playoff teams with that mindset are fully capable of elevating their play in their final home game. We saw the Raptors do so yesterday against a Philadelphia team which had much to play for and which, like Orlando, was also "looking to get back on track" and to build some playoff momentum. Last month's blowout loss notwithstanding, the Bucks, who play with "triple revenge," are a profitable 17-7 ATS and 19-5 SU the last 24 times that they were a host in this series. I expect them to build off Saturday's victory and to close out the home campaign with a big win and cover. *GOY
Basketball (NBA)
UNDER bulls/pistons
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons Game Time: 4/13/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Pistons and Bulls to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met three times this season and all three have finished above the total. However, the most recent of those games (3/24) would have finished below this evening's higher over/under number, as the final combined score came in at 190. Looking back a bit further and we find that five of the last eight meetings have finished with 190 or fewer combined points. Both teams are still jockeying for playoff positioning and I expect that to ensure that we see a solid effort from both defenses. The Bulls have seen six of their last nine road games finish below the total. While the Pistons have seen their last couple of games sneak above the number, they've still seen the UNDER go a profitable 24-14 (63%) the last 38 times that they played a home game where the total ranged between 195 and 199.5 points. The Pistons, who lost last month's meeting at Chicago, have also seen the UNDER go 57-39 the last few years when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. During that stretch, they've also seen the UNDER go 19-13 when coming off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. I expect those numbers to improve this evening. *Blue Chip
OVER raptors/wizards
please check back for writeup
BUCKS
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 4/13/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm laying the small number with MILWAUKEE. Even casual fans know that the Magic have had a much better season than the Bucks. On the surface, they've also got more to play for. The Bucks are playing out the string while the Magic are looking to bounce back from back to back losses and looking to build some momentum for the postseason. So, why are the Bucks favored? Well, there are several reasons. For starters, the Bucks are playing at home and this is their final home game of the year. Also, the Magic are already locked into the third seed. Additionally, they're not healthy. While they've had plenty of time to deal with the loss of point guard Jameer Nelson, now they're also expected to be without both Lewis and Turkolu. Making matters even more difficult, they'll also likely see limited minutes from Dwight Howard, who played less than normal in Saturday's loss. The Bucks snapped a four-game losing streak with a convincing 115-98 win over Oklahoma City on Saturday with Richard Jefferson tying a season high with 35 points. That victory showed that they actually do care about finishing up strong. As forward Charlie Villanueva noted: "We're trying to finish the season out strong on a positive note. We're playing to win every game. We're not playing for the lottery, lottery balls, or anything like that." Non-playoff teams with that mindset are fully capable of elevating their play in their final home game. We saw the Raptors do so yesterday against a Philadelphia team which had much to play for and which, like Orlando, was also "looking to get back on track" and to build some playoff momentum. Last month's blowout loss notwithstanding, the Bucks, who play with "triple revenge," are a profitable 17-7 ATS and 19-5 SU the last 24 times that they were a host in this series. I expect them to build off Saturday's victory and to close out the home campaign with a big win and cover. *GOY