4-14-09

[Mr. IWS]

Big @l

Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

At 8:10pm our member selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Cleveland Indians. The Royals have to be excited about their young team, especially their pitching. At the top of their rotation they have Gil Meche and Zack Greinke and both have already pitched well this season, and perhaps most encouraging is that their #3 starter, righthander Kyle Davies has also looked impressive in his first start. This season it looks as though Davies may finally fulfill the promise that he brought with him into the league when he was a highly touted prospect coming up with the Braves in 2005. Davies is still relatively young (25) and last season was his most productive as he had career bests in wins (9) and ERA (4.06). Davies ended 2008 on a very strong note, going 4-1 in the month of September and he followed that up with a very strong Spring, then matched his career high with eight strikeouts in his season debut last Thursday. He pitches very well at home (two-thirds of his starts in 2008 came at Kauffman Stadium) and he did not disappoint the home crowd in most of those efforts while posting a sub-4 ERA there. KC almost reached the .500 mark against the Tribe in 2008 (8-10) and with the team they've assembled, nobody would be surprised if they take the season series against them in '09. The Indians avoided their worst start ever when they finally won their first game on Sunday, but chances are tougher times are still ahead for this group of under-achievers. Take the Royals.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

It's never wise to read too much into a single performance. That said, it's also important to know what's going on. In tonight's game, we've got a pitcher going for the Royals who was dominant in his opener against an Indians' pitcher who was absolutely rocked in his.

Pavano goes for the Indians and he lasted only a single inning in his first start. Remarkably, he allowed a whopping nine runs in that span, giving him an 81.00 ERA heading into tonight's game. Cleveland lost that game by a score of 12-8. While Pavano is certainly better than he showed, let's also remember that he hasn't had an ERA below 4.76 since 2004.

Davies goes for the Royals and he pitched seven shutout innings in his first start, allowing a mere three hits during that stretch, striking out eight along the way. KC won that game by a score of 2-1. You may recall that Davies closed out last season with three straight victories. That prompted Royals manager Trey Hillman to comment: "He's on the same roll that he finished August with, and went through September with...Very impressive."

Davies doesn't have very good career numbers vs. the Indians. However, he was tough in his lone start against them last season. In that game, he gave up just one run through five complete innings. The Royals won by a score of 4-2. On the other hand, Pavano struggled in his lone start against the Royals. He lasted 5 1/3 innings but gave up nine hits (2 hrs) and five runs.

With yesterday's series opening victory, the Royals are 4-3 on the season while the Indians are just 1-6, including 0-4 on the road. It's also worth noting that the Royals are now 13-7 (+3.4) the last 20 times they were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Consider a play on KC.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Detroit lost a 10-6 shootout yesterday, but I expect a quick bounce-back by the Tigers, who pounded southpaws in home day games a season ago. Detroit finished 2008 with a 6-2 mark in this situation, scoring an average of almost 5 1/2 runs per game. White Sox lefty John Danks sports a hefty 6.75 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .318 BAA in his two starts at Comerica Park...not a good sign considering how well the Tigers rip lefties at home in general. Detroit sends Rick Porcello to the bump today. The righty led the Florida State League in ERA last season (2.66) while sporting a strong 1.19 WHIP. He has developed a good, low-90s MPH sinker to go along with an incredible four-seam fastball. The 20-year old gave up four earned runs in five innings in his debut last week in Toronto. But he's back at home and I expect a winning result on Tuesday. He should get plenty of support (as mentioned above) and I'll back the Tigers with the youngster on the mound. I'm playing the underdog Tigers on Tuesday afternoon.

[Mr. IWS]

Al Angels(blowout) and Braves(gom)

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

76ERS

Game: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 4/14/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. I successfully played against the 76'ers in their most recent game, a 111-104 loss at Toronto. The majority of bettors favored Philly in that game which caused the line to move from pick'em to Philly -2 or -2.5. I believe that those bettors were just a game early though and that this will prove to be the spot in which to back the team from Philly. The 76'ers last game came against a Raptors team which was at full strength and which was playing its final home game. I thought the Raptors would treat the game seriously and they came through with their best home effort in April. Tonight's game is an entirely different situation though. This time, it's the 76'ers which are playing their final home game. This time, they'll be taking on a team which is not playing at full strength and which really shouldn't be all that concerned about winning. Sure, the Celtics would like to bounce back from the blowout loss at Cleveland with a win tonight. However, they're already locked into the #2 seed and they'd won six straight before that loss. Being the defending champions, they've got absolutely nothing to prove. Note that if the Celtics really want to close out the regular season on a high note, to gain some momentum for the playoffs, that they get to host the Wizards tomorrow night, the team with the worst record (by far) in the Eastern Conference. Let's take a quick look at the Orlando Magic game from last night, as it had some similarities to this one. The Magic were already locked into their playoff spot, just as Boston is. Like Boston, the Magic were coming off a loss. Also, like the Celtics, the Magic were dealing with some injuries and playing their final road game of the season. Already without Lewis and Turkolu, they also decided to give Howard the night off. The Magic responded by getting blown out by the lowly Bucks, getting scored 80-56 from the second quarter on. Orlando forward Tony Battie's post-game comments revealed the team's mindset, basically acknowledging that the loss meant nothing to them. "We got our starters some rest, we got our bench players some minutes. We'll be ready to go when it counts..." Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy didn't seem too concerned by the loss either. When asked about his decision to rest Howard, he responded: "I'm not kicking myself on the decision. I'm still convinced it was the best thing to do..." While teams always prefer winning to losing, I expect the Celtics, who are expected to again be without Garnett, to treat this game about as seriously as the Magic treated their game last night. On the other hand, this is a huge game for the 76'ers. For starters, they're playing with "triple-revenge," having lost all three games vs. the champs this season. The last one of those losses, the lone game here on Philly, came by a single point - so the 76'ers are itching for some payback. The 76'ers, currently in 7th, know that they could be facing the Celtics in the first round. They want to prove to the Celtics and to themselves that they can beat them. After all, if they can't beat them when the Celts don't even really care, what hope will they have of doing so next week. There are other factors which make this a very big game for Philadelphia. They've blown their shot at the fifth seed but the 76'ers could still finish in sixth. That's significant as they'd probably prefer to face the Magic instead of the Celtics. This is also their final home game of the regular season and all teams typically prefer to win those. Most importantly, the 76'ers badly need to get a win to restore their confidence. That's because they've lost five in a row. A loss tonight would give them a 6-game losing streak with their final game coming at Cleveland, a place where the Cavaliers own a 39-1 record. In other words, with a loss tonight, they could bring a 7-game losing streak into the playoffs. In fairness, a look at the 76'ers' 5-game losing streak shows that four of their losses came on the road. The only loss at home came against the team with the best record in the league(Cleveland) and the 76'ers played the Cavs tough for most of that game. I expect the 76'ers to be the "hungrier" team and I expect that to lead to them winning in convincing fashion. *TNT GOY


OVER Hawks/Heat

Game: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 4/14/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Hawks and Heat to finish OVER the total. These teams are both capable of turning up the defensive intensity and we're sure to see some quality "d" when they face each other in the playoffs next week. That said, they're also both very capable of putting up points and with tonight's game being essentially meaningless, I expect to see a bigger emphasis on offense than defense. The Hawks have seen three straight games finish above the total. Those games finished with 228, 218 and 240 points. The OVER is now 8-3 their last 11 games. The Heat have seen four of their last five games finish above the total. Their most recent game finished with 227 and their most recent road game finished with 197. Note that they've seen the OVER go 12-7-1 the last 20 times that they were coming off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. Even if some of the stars do get some extra rest, I look for tonight's final combined score to be higher than most are expecting. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS MLB

Baseball (MLB)

TWINS

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 4/14/2009 8:10:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Twins Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. The Jays have gotten off to a better start than the Twins and they took yesterday's series opener by a score of 8-6. I expect the Twins to have an edge on the mound this evening though and look for them to bounce back and even up the series. Romero goes for the Jays and he's got a 1-0 record. He was solid (3.00 ERA) but not spectacular (1.50 WHIP) in his first start, which was also his Major League debut. He allowed two runs through six innings, giving up seven hits and two walks. While that was a relatively impressive performance, it came at home. This will be Romero's first road start. I won't be surprised if we see a bit of an 'emotional letdown' from the rookie, after having been so fired up for his first start. Perkins goes for the Twins and he's got an 0-1 record. That's deceiving though, as he gave up just one run and five hits in eight complete innings in his lone start. Only two Mariners reached second base and Perkins retired 14 of the last 15 hitters he faced. Note that Perkins went 12-4 last season including 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 14 home starts. The Twins have been great at home the past couple of seasons and they've gone 50-34 during that stretch when playing a home game with an over/under line of nine or 9.5. Look for them to get back on track here, improving to 14-7 the last 21 times that Perkins took the mound. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

5 Dime Marlins

5 Dime Cardinals

5 Dime Angels

FREE - Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT


Chairman------------Milwaukee Brewers
Millionaire-----------Kansas City Royals
No Limit -------------Oakland A's

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Club-70 Play-MLB (75.6% situation)

My 20* Club-70 Play is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The Twins missed the postseason last year, losing a one-game playoff 1-0 at Chicago to the White Sox. If the Twins had won even ONE game vs Toronto last year (Blue Jays won the season series 6-0), the Twins would not have advanced to the postseason. The Blue Jays and Twins met for the first time in 2009 last night in Minnesota and it was deja vu all over again. Toronto's Travis Snider hit two HRs, including a go-ahead two-run shot in the eighth inning, as the Blue Jays rallied (Jays trailed 6-3 after five innings) to beat the Twins 8-6. The win was Toronto's 10th consecutive over Minnesota, which has now been outscored 22-7 during a current three-game losing streak. Unlike the 3-5 Twins, the Jays are off to a 6-2 start and will hand the ball to Ricky Romero. Romero outpitched Rick Porcello of Detroit last Thursday in a 6-2 win. It marked the first matchup of former first-round draft picks making their major league debuts against each other. He allowed two runs and seven hits in six innings, struck out five and walked two, throwing 93 pitches. Now, he?ll try to duplicate that success on the road. The Jays will be looking for their 11th straight win over the Twins but it's hard to ignore (despite Minnesota's shaky start) the team's 53-28 home mark last year, when the Twins won more money (plus-$1,854) in their home park than any team in MLB not named the Rays. It's also worth noting that Romero is a lefty and the Twins went 18-5 in home games vs left-handers, averaging 5.3 RPG (Twins are 1-0 vs lefties at home in '09). Toronto would love to rest its bullpen tonight, as its relievers combined to allow 10 ERs in 10.1 innings during the weekend's three-game series in Cleveland and after last night's game, has yielded 12 of its 13 runs on the season over the last four contests. Minnesota will counter Romero with a lefty of its own, Glen Perkins. Perkins made 23 appearances in 2006 and 2007, all out of the bullpen. However, all 26 of his appearances last season (was called up to the majors in early May and stayed the rest of the year) came as a starter and he went a solid 12-4 with a 4.41 ERA (team was 16-10 in his starts). Perkins gave up just one run and five hits over eight innings in his first start of the season last Thursday afternoon against Seattle. He struck out four but that wasn't quite good enough against Jarrod Washburn, who did not allow a run in eight innings of a 2-0 game. Seattle hit Perkins hard in the first inning. Endy Chavez lined out, Franklin Gutierrez missed a homer by about three feet and settled for a double and Mike Sweeney lined out to right field. Beltre followed with an RBI single for a 1-0 lead. However, the lefty settled down after that and never really ran into trouble. Only two Mariners reached second base and Perkins retired 14 of the last 15 hitters he faced. The Twins are counting on Perkins to pitch well again, as Minnesota pitchers have allowed 21 ERs for a 7.56 ERA over the team's three-game slide. Perkins will face a Toronto team which was just 5-12 vs left-handers last year in road night games, while averaging only 3.1 RPG. This will be the first lefty the Blue Jays have faced on the road in 2009. Going against the Blue Jays on the road vs lefties in night games last year gave bettors a 12-5 mark, while backing the Twins vs lefties at home since the beginning of last year gave bettors a 19-5 mark. That's a combined mark of 31-10, or 75.6 percent. Not bad.

Club-70 Play on the Min Twins.