4-15-09

[Mr. IWS]

Al

Our 3 selections include the 'over' in the Anaheim/Seattle game, the 'over' in the Baltimore/Texas game, and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Burns Hockey Under rangers under flyers under canucks

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 8* Getaway Day Super Total

The Red Sox opened last night's game by scoring three runs in the top of the first inning but starter Daisuke Matsuzaka then allowed five runs in the bottom half of the inning before leaving the game with arm fatigue (you think?). Boston's bullpen followed with 10 shutout innings but the Red Sox lost 6-5 on Travis Buck’s infield single with the bases loaded and two outs in the 12th. It marked the team's sixth loss in its last seven games, as the Red Sox already trail AL East-leading Baltimore by four games. The team is now on its second three-game losing streak of a season which is only eight games old. Five regulars are hitting .206 or lower and the pitching staff owns a team ERA of 5.40. What's going on here? Meanwhile, Oakland has totaled 14 runs in the first two games of this series and has now won five straight at home against Boston, going back to a sweep last May 23-2. Attempting to "put a lid" on the A's on Wednesday afternoon (short rest for both teams) will be veteran knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield. Wakefield never seems to go away but the record shows he hasn't had an ERA of under 4.00 in a season since going 11-5 (2.81) in 2002. He has started 30 or more games in FIVE of his last seasons (a testament to his toughness) but his ERA in that six-year span is 4.42. While his ERA was 3.50 in Fenway last season, it was 5.14 on the road. Recent history reveals that Wakefield has dropped seven straight road starts against AL West opponents, with a 7.51 ERA. He hasn't won in Oakland since 1999 and gave up EIGHT runs in five innings in his lone start there last year. The A's have scored 14 runs with 23 hits in the first two games of this series and last season, went 13-6 vs right-handed starters in home day games, averaging 5.1 RPG. Opposing Wakefield will be Oakland's highly touted 21-year-old left-hander, Brett Anderson. Anderson started last Friday at home vs the Mariners, allowing five ERs on seven hits in six innings of a 5-4 loss 5-4. All the runs came in the second inning, as the Mariners put together five hits. Anderson is joining Oakland’s rotation after making only six previous starts above Single-A. Remember, the Red Sox were 27-13 vs lefties last season, averaging 5.9 RPG. They'll be facing a lefty for the third straight time here in this series. The Red Sox struggled against Dallas Braden on Monday in an 8-2 loss but they chased Dana Eveland after 4.2 innings Tuesday, scoring five runs on eight hits. Expect plenty of scoring in today's game as well.

Getaway Day Super Total on Bos/Oak Over


Larry Ness' 9* PERFECT STORM

Micah Owings owns a lifetime batting average of .322 with five HRs and 21 RBI in his 118 ABs. We all know Owings can hit but the real question for the Reds is, can he pitch? Owings makes his Cincinnati mound debut tonight in Milwaukee. He was acquired last September in the trade that sent Adam Dunn to Arizona but was dealing with a strained shoulder and never took the mound. He went 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA in 2007 for the D'backs and 6-9 with a 5.93 ERA last season in 18 starts (team was 7-11). The Brewers will counter Ownings in this final game of a three-game series (Reds have won the first two) with newcomer Braden Looper. Looper signed with Milwaukee as a free agent but missed much of spring training because of a tight left oblique muscle. He allowed five hits while striking out four last Friday in his Milwaukee debut vs the Cubs, a game the Brewers won 4-3. Looper did not factor in the final decision but said his side feels fine, although he still didn't feel like he had his best stuff. Looper began his career with the Cards in 1998, then spent five years with the Marlins and two with the Mets before returning to St Louis in 2006. He went 9-3 with 3.56 ERA in 69 relief appearances that season, as the Cards won the World Series. Heading into the 2007 season, all 572 of his MLB appearances (1998-2006) had been out of the bullpen but the Cards converted him into a starter for that season. He went 12-12 with a 4.94 ERA in 2007 and then 12-14 (4.16) last year, although the team did win 10 of his 15 home starts in 2008. I like this guy and he'll face a Cincinnati team which was a pathetic 31-50 on the road last year (minus-$1,246). Let's also note that most of Cincy's road woes came against right-handers, as the Reds were 17-33 (minus-$1.285) vs them, scoring only 3.9 RPG. Pitching for St Louis last season, Looper went 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in four starts against the Reds (Cards were 3-1). The Brewers owned one of MLB's biggest home/away dichotomies in 2006 and 2007, going 99-63 at home but just 59-103 on the road. That changed somewhat last year, although NOT because the Brewers didn't play well in Miller Park (they did at 49-32) but rather because the team improved its road play (41-40). Milwaukee's improved road play was the main reason the Brewers reached the postseason for the first time since 1982 in 2008. The Brewers are off to a 2-6 start in '09, including 1-4 here at home, after losing the first two games of this series to the Reds. Milwaukee is batting just .217 as a team, with key players like Prince Fielder (.179) and Ryan Braun (.200) really struggling. However, those bats will 'wake up' soon and tonight is not a bad spot. Owings is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA lifetime in two career starts versus the Brewers (both in Milwaukee) and let's note that the Reds haven't swept the Brewers in a series at Milwaukee since July 11-13 of 2003. Let's review Cincy's road numbers from LY of 31-50 in all games and 17-33 vs right-handers plus Milwaukee's three-year home mark of 148-95 (.609) from 2006-08.

9* PERFECT STORM on the Mil Brewers


Larry Ness' 7* Pitching Mismatch

Enough was enough. It took 11 innings but the Twins finally beat the Blue Jays last night (3-2), ending a 10-game losing streak to Toronto. The Twins lost a one-game playoff with the White Sox last year for a postseason berth, a tie-breaker which would NOT have been needed had the Twins won just ONE of their six games with the Blue Jays in 2008. The Twins were a dominating 53-28 at home last year, winning more money (plus-$1,854) than any team NOT named the Rays in their home park. They will try and win tonight's third game of a four-game series with the Blue Jays, sending Scott Baker to the mound. Baker was just 17-20 with a 4.71 ERA from 2005 through 2007 in 48 starts (team was 25-23). However, the now 27-year-old went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA in a career-high 28 starts in 2008, as the Twins went 17-11. He ended 2008 going 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last six starts and was 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 12 home starts last season (Twins went 9-3!). Baker signed a $15.25 million, four-year contract last month and was named Minnesota's opening day starter. However, he developed some soreness in his shoulder on April 1 and Minnesota opted to place him on the 15-day DL. He was activated on Tuesday and is all set to go. However, he'll be facing a Toronto team which leads all of MLB with a team batting average of .303 and has scored a ML-high 56 runs (despite getting just seven hits and scoring only two runs last night). Baker did not face the Blue Jays last season but he owned a 3.72 ERA against them in three outings in 2007. Scott Richmond gets his second start of 2009 tonight for Toronto and it's only the SEVENTH start of his career. Richmond pitched four innings in a rain-shortened start at Cleveland on Friday (game was eventually completed with the Blue Jays winning 13-7), allowing five hits and three ERs. He struck out four and allowed two walks in the no-decision effort. One fantasy site reported that Richmond "didn't look half-bad in his debut against the Indians but wasn't overly impressive either." That's not exactly a 'ringing' endorsement. I 'LOVE' Baker over Richmond in this one, especially here in the Metrodome, where the Twins are so very tough.

7* Pitching Mismatch on the Min Twins

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NHL

Hockey (NHL)

UNDER canucks/blues

Game: St. Louis Blues vs. Vancouver Canucks Game Time: 4/15/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Canucks and Blues to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other four times during the regular season with three of those games finishing above the total. However, a look at the two games played here on the West Coast shows that Roberto Luongo (Vancouver's star goalie) didn't play in the first one. Luongo did play in the most recent game here and blanked the Blues, en route to a 3-0 Vancouver victory. In five home starts, as a Canuck, Luongo has never allowed the Blues to score more than two goals. Dating back to his days in Florida, Luongo has seen the UNDER go 9-5-2 his last 16 starts against St. Louis. The Canucks have seen the UNDER go 7-2 their last nine games, including 4-0 their last four. Luongo is off back to back shutouts and has allowed only one goal in his last three starts. St. Louis has a red hot goalie of its own. Indeed, Chris Mason closed out the season with a 1-0 shutout (his sixth) and has allowed just two goals in his past three games. Mason knows he's going to have to be at the top of his game if the Blues want to compete in this series and I expect him to continue his strong play. Luongo ended the regular season with a shutout streak of 145 minutes and 56 seconds. He hasn't given up a goal in more than a week. After the latest shutout, his ninth (a career high) of the season, the Canucks' star was quoted as saying: "We have to build off that. Going into the playoffs, we know there are going to be a lot of games like this that are tight and any mistake could decide the game. It's nice we have that playoff mentality already." With a pair of red hot goalies, I expect another tight low-scoring affair.
UNDER rangers/capitals

Game: New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals Game Time: 4/15/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Washington and New York to finish UNDER the total. It's true that the Capitals were a profitable 'over' team this season. However, it's also true that the Rangers were an equally profitable 'under' team. As noted in the Pittsburgh/Philly analysis, all eight of the opening games in last year's playoffs produced five goals or less. That included a 4-1 Rangers win on opening night. Tonight's total is listed at 5.5, which I feel is generous. A look at the recent series history shows that both of this year's meetings at New York finished above the total. However, the games here at Washington were a different story, as both stayed below the total. Those games had scores of 3-1 and 2-1. Looking back further and we find that seven of the last nine meetings between the Capitals and Rangers, here at Washington, have stayed below the total. I expect those numbers to improve this evening.
UNDER flyers/penguins

Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Game Time: 4/15/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Penguins and Flyers to finish UNDER the total. With all due respect to Sidney Crosby and co., I believe that six is too high an over/under line for a game on the opening night of the playoffs. Looking back to last year's NHL playoffs (04/09/08 and 04/10/08) and we find that NONE of the eight opening games finished with more than five combined goals. One of those games involved the Penguins, a 4-0 Pittsburgh win over Ottawa on "Opening Night." A look at the recent series history shows that the all three of this year's meetings at Philadelphia finished above the total. However, the games here at Pittsburgh were a different story, as two of three meetings finished below the total. The most recent game between these teams here was on 3/22 and saw the Flyers come away with a 3-1 win. Including that result, the Flyers have seen the UNDER go 10-3-1 this season when playing a road game with an over/under line of 5.5. Look for this one to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NBA

Basketball (NBA)

MEMPHIS

Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game Time: 4/15/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies Reason: I'm laying the points with MEMPHIS. In a normal situation, the Grizzlies wouldn't be favored over the Hawks, at least not by this many. This isn't a "normal" situation though. The Hawks are off a game last night and are playing their final road game of the regular season. More importantly, they're already locked into the fourth spot in the East and have absolutely nothing to play for here. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are playing their final home game (and final game overall) of the season and are motivated to close out the season with a big win for the home fans. Unlike some non-playoff teams, the Grizzlies have still been fighting down the stretch, particularly here at Memphis. In fact, they've won three of their last four games here. That includes a win over Dallas AND a double-digit blowout win against the Suns. The lone loss during that stretch was a 3-point heartbreaker vs. Portland. Overall, the Grizzlies are a profitable 7-2 ATS their last nine games. Looking back further and we find them at 23-12 ATS their last 35. I expect them to take this game more seriously than the Hawks and look for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Burns MLB

Baseball (MLB)

TIGERS

Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Game Time: 4/15/2009 1:05:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Tigers Reason: I'm laying the price with DETROIT. I feel that yesterday's postponement will work in the Tigers' favor, as they now send a much better pitcher (Armando Galarraga) to the mound. On the other hand, the White Sox will go with the same starter, Jose Contreras, that they were planning on using yesterday. While most pitchers don't like to have their routine altered, Contreras is a veteran, so that may not bother him that much. Either way, I believe that Contreras' better days are behind him and that he'll be outclassed by the younger Galarraga. Contreras had surgery for an elbow injury and wasn't even expected to be back this early in the season. He made it back earlier than expected but that's not necessarily going to be a good thing for the Sox. In his first start, Contreras allowed seven hits, four runs and three walks in five innings. That gives him a 7.20 ERA coming into this afternoon's game. Contreras did manage a somewhat respectable 4.54 ERA last season, going 7-6. However, he was 10-17 with a poor 5.57 ERA the previous season. Additionally, he really struggled vs. the Tigers last season, going 0-2 with a 7.13 ERA in three starts against them, including an 0-1 mark with an ugly 8.18 ERA in two starts at Comerica Park. In those games he gave up 23 hits and five walks in 11 innings. I played on Detroit in Galarraga's first start. Galarraga was excellent and the Tigers won by a score of 15-2. He held the Rangers to a single run on just five hits through seven complete innings, striking out eight along the way. Note that was an afternoon start and that Galarraga was 6-2 with a stellar 2.69 ERA in his afternoon starts last season. While the Tigers know all about Contreras, Galarraga will have the advantage of facing the Sox for the first time. Backed by a Tigers lineup which is averaging 7.7 runs per game here at home, look for him to build on his strong opening start and for the Tigers to close out the series with a victory. *Annihilator
DIAMONDBACKS

Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game Time: 4/15/2009 3:40:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. With this afternoon's line roughly in the pick'em range, naturally one could make a case for either team. Those arguing for St. Louis could point out that Cardinals have the better overall record (St. Louis is 6-3, Arizona is 3-5) and that Pineiro has been pitching well. Both those points are true. The Cards have been playing well as a team and Pineiro was strong in his first start. He even had a good spring. However, in my opinion, the case for the Diamondbacks is stronger. Arizona comes in with some momentum, having won last night's game in 10 innings. While the Diamondbacks are feeling pretty good about that victory, the Cards may be feeling a little deflated from the loss. Not only did they blow a 3-0 lead but they also lost starting pitcher Chris Carpenter to injury. As Tony Larussa acknowledged: "I'm not happy. I ain't going to fake it..." Garland goes for the Diamondbacks and he pitched well in his National League debut. Facing a tough Dodgers lineup, he allowed just three runs and five hits over seven complete innings. Having spent his career in the American League, many of the NL hitters aren't that familiar with Garland yet. Even Pujols has only ever had three at bats off him, going 0 for 3. Garland's lone start against the Cards came back in 2001. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks just saw Pineiro twice last September. Pineiro had an ugly 7.20 ERA in his lone start at Chase Field, giving up three home runs in five innings. Pineiro escaped with a no-decision but Arizona won by a score of 8-6. Also, before getting too excited about Pineiro's first start, keep in mind that he had a 5.15 ERA last season and that he hasn't had an ERA below 4.33 since 2003. Note that Pineiro's first start was a home game underneath the lights. Now, he's on the road and pitching during the afternoon. That's noteworthy as he was 1-3 with an awful 5.71 ERA in nine daytime starts last season. The Diamondbacks have dominated the Cards here at Arizona the last couple of seasons, going 9-2 the last 11 times that the teams played here. I expect them to build some positive momentum from yesterday's comeback and look for them to close out the series with another victory. *NL Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

CC----------------Pittsburgh
Mill---------------Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Wednesday ...

20 Dime Rockets - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

5 Dime Marlins -

5 Dime Mariners -

5 Dime Padres -



FREE - Clippers

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 7* NBA Triple Play Blockbuster

7* Dal Mavs.

7* Chicago Bulls

7* Portland Blazers