4-16-09

[Mr. IWS]

JEFFERSON-SPORTS EARLY RELEASE

MLB
TORONTO-138 (Halladay)

[Mr. IWS]

dailypowerratings

5* Toronto
5* NY Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan (-4.81u @1u/play YTD for hockey)

Money Line: 187 Anaheim Ducks

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Anaheim as the face San Jose slated to start at 10:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 76-57 mark making 45.6 units since 2003. Play on road dogs of +100 to +200 against the money line versus division opponents, off a road loss against a division rival. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 125-88 making 31.5 units since 2003. Play on any team against the money line off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season in the second half of the season. Here is a third system that has gone 75-71 making 28.6 units since 2003. Play against home favorites against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and playing with 3 or more days rest. San Jose is just 6-10 against the money line (-11.3 Units) against good offensive teams averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the 2nd half of the year this season; 5-10 against the money line (-15.0 Units) off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Anaheim is a solid 25-15 against the money line (+11.3 Units) in road games after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored over the last 3 seasons. Take Anaheim

[Mr. IWS]

Fred Wallin
Fred Wallin's MLB Total's Play of the Day
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Apr 16 10:10 PM)
Over 8.5 (-120.0)
Dodger Stadium is a big ballpark, but that won't matter in this matchup.. Zito is a shadow of himself and although Stults pitched well last week, he's extremely hittable and he'll be under pressure to keep his spot in the rotation.

Take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
over pitt-houston/playmaker

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* MLB WINS AGAIN LAST NIGHT! (70% WINNER INSIDE)

Pick # 1 Toronto Blue Jays / Minnesota Twins Under 7.5 -130

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - SAN DIEGO PADRES (Peavy over Maine)




20 DIMER - SAN DIEGO PADRES (Peavy over Maine) Jake Peavy has been reached for 6 runs in his 15 innings of work this spring, splitting a pair of starts. I have a feeling the righty is going to be ready to mow the Mets down in their new park this Thursday night, and I am all about this very nice price on the Padres, and their ace tonight. New York counters with John Maine, and if you ask me, while Maine is capable of shutting the Good Fathers down tonight, more than likely he is going to be hit by a San Diego team that has enjoyed this April, getting off to a 6-3 start. The Padres also play well when playing against the Mets, as they have split the first 2 at the new Citifield, and are now 12-5 overall against New York since the 2007 season. It is a small card this Thursday, but I do have the one winner on the diamond that will add more coin to our pockets! Take the Padres over the Mets.

[Mr. IWS]

DailyPowerRatings

5* Toronto
5* NY Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky $30.00
Ride Teddy's 100% perfect 10-0 hot streak one more time today, with this early start baseball guarantee. Cash an easy winner before dinner; a nice bankroll boost to fill your afternoon.


houston/pitt OVER 9.5

[Mr. IWS]

steve merrill


Florida Marlins /Atlanta Braves UNDER 9.0 / 5 units

Atlanta sends Kenshin Kawakami to the mound. The Japanese import is 1-0 this season after defeating the Nationals at home. He struck out eight and walked four in his six innings of work. This is the type of pitcher that the Marlins have trouble with as they have never faced him and the Florida hitters are strikeout prone.

Florida sends Anibal Sanchez to the mound and he looked strong in his season debut versus the Mets last Friday when Sanchez pitched five scoreless innings and allowed only four hits. Sanchez should have success again today against a Braves’ lineup that will be without Chipper Jones who is still dealing with a thumb injury. Brian McCann is hitting .364 against Sanchez, but the rest of the team struggles against him. Look for a pitcher's duel today as the bats are likely to still be asleep with this early daytime start.

Play UNDER as a 5 unit play.




Toronto Blue Jays /Minnesota Twins UNDER 7.5 / 5 units

A pair of aces take the mound in game four of the Twins and Blue Jays series in Minnesota. Toronto sends Roy Halladay to the mound and the ace is already 2-0 on the young season after shutting down the Indians and defeating the Tigers on opening day. Halladay is 7-0 against the Twins with an ERA of 2.71 and a fantastic WHIP of 0.935. Minnesota collectively hits only .228 against the righthander. If you take out Delmon Young's 6 for 11 against him, that average goes even lower. Minnesota is unlikely to have any success today as their offense is struggling and has scored three or less runs in six of the 10 games played so far this year.

The Twins send lefty Francisco Liriano to the mound. He's scuffled so far this season going 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA. Liriano lost 6-1 on opening day to Seattle and 8-0 to Chicago five days later. Despite the slow start, the potential is there for Liriano to shut down the Blue Jays. While he's never made a start against Toronto, the Blue Jays’ hitters have 16 at-bats against him managing only one hit by Vernon Wells. Liriano is a talented pitcher and will bounce back today. Both offenses will struggle and my power ratings predict just 6.8 total runs.

Play UNDER as a 5 unit play.



San Francisco Giants / Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8.0 / 7 units

These NL West rivals wrap up their series in LA with a pair of lefthanders taking the mound tonight. Barry Zito goes for the Giants after losing his first game of the season 7-3 to the Padres. The enigmatic lefty went only four innings giving up four runs on seven hits. He is 5-4 against Los Angeles with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.194. The Dodgers are extremely familiar with Zito and Matt Kemp hits .520, while Rafael Furcal checks in with a .429 average.

The Dodgers have scored 16 runs the past two nights and their offense should have success again this evening as Barry Zito struggled in April last year. The Dodgers have also crushed left-handed pitchers this season, batting .353 as a team versus LHP and averaging 12.9 runs per nine innings.

The Dodgers’ starter Eric Stults won his first start pitching well in 5.3 innings, giving up only one run, however Stults hasn’t had much success against San Francisco, going 0-1 with a terrible 6.23 ERA and a WHIP of 2.154. The Giants as a team hit .500 against the lefthander in 30 at-bats. Fred Lewis is 5 for 6, while Randy Winn is 2-for-4. The Giants have not had many looks at Stults, but when they do get him, they hit the guy around.

Play OVER as a 7 unit play.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

15 Dime Indians-Yankees Under

5 Dime Marlins

5 Dime White Sox-Rays Under

5 Dime Twins

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops

5* Toronto -128 **POD**
5* Chicago Cubs -108
5* NY Yankees -1.5 +100
4* Houston +116

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 04/16/09 - 1:05 PM ?N
double-dime bet ml914 NYY (+175) Bookmaker.com vs 913 CLE
Analysis:

** MLB 2* (2 TM) LATE STEAM PARLAY **



TEAM 1 : NY YANKEES -215



TEAM 2 : CHICAGO CUBS -110



2 UNITS to WIN +3.55 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

Keith Fredrick

Padres at Mets
Pick: Padres +115

Padres have been a thorn in the side of the Mets the last three years as even with yesterday's win the Amazins are just 5-10 against the Friars in the last 15 meetings. With that backdrop we see John Maine against Jake Peavy, and with Peavy having a "plus" in his column. Padre ace is 4-2 with a 3.32 career ERA against New York while Maine has allowed 13 hits and seven earned runs in 11.2 career innings of work against the Padres. Peavy as a dog...I am in!

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferrringo

5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Houston at Pittsburgh

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 L.A. Angels at Seattle

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Toronto at Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

C-Stars Sports

1000 Units Top Play Philadelphia over Washington
50 Units Giants/Dodgers OVER the total
50 Units Angels over Mariners
50 Units San Diego +125

[Mr. IWS]

tonyosports

The Toronto Blue Jays have definitely been one of baseball's hottest surprises so far during the week & a half-old new season. They will look to keep the good times rolling tonight in their 4-game finale at the Metrdome against the Minnesota Twins.

Toronto ace Roy Halladay (2-0, 3.86) will be opposed by Minnesota righthander Francisco Liriano (0-2, 6.94).

Over his 12-year career, Minnesota is the only AL team Halladay has never lost to, as he is 7-0 in 9 career starts with a 2.92 ERA & .217 opponents' batting average. (lowest among all opposing AL teams).

Liriano has just 1 previous appearence against Toronto, which was on April 5th, 2006.

In that game, Liriano pitched 2 scoreless innings from the bullpen during the Twins' 13-4 win.

I look for Halladay to have another dominating outing to help Toronto take 3 out of 4 in this series finale.

All BLUE JAYS.

The Chicago White Sox will face the Tampa Bay Rays tonight in a rematch of the 2008 ALDS, which Tampa won in 4 games.

Lefty John Danks (0-0, 0.00) will start for the White Sox while the Rays will go with righthander Joe Niemann (0-0, 10.13).

Danks has good career numbers against Tampa Bay, as he is 3-1 against them in 4 starts with a 2.96 ERA.

Niemann lost his only career start to Chicago on April 18th, 2008 as he gave up 8 runs (5 earned) on 5 hits in just 3 & 1/3 innings during the White Sox's 9-2 win.

Tampa will play tonight without Evan Longoria, who is away from the team due to a death in the family. Longoria is off to a scorching start as he ranks 5th in batting average (.441), leads the majors in home runs (5), & is tied for 2nd in the AL in runs batted in (12).

Look for the White Sox to take advantage of Longoria's absence & pick up a road win to snap their 5-game skid vs the Rays.

All WHITE SOX.

[Mr. IWS]

tonyosports

Guranteed To Win or Well Pay You back METS

[Mr. IWS]

Kirkwins

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Toronto
3 Florida
3 SD
3 SD under
3 Philly over

[Mr. IWS]

ANDRE GOMES

FLORIDA (7 - 1) at ATLANTA (5 - 3)
Thursday, 4/16/2009 7:10 PM ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. KENSHIN KAWAKAMI (R)

The Braves had a great start against the Phillies and then crushed the lowly Nationals in the last week… this fact makes them an overrated team for the present and for this contest the value is on the Marlins' side.

Japonese Kawakami takes the mound today and he made a quality start in his debut vs. the Nationals. However early on the game he didn't look so sharp and luckily for him it was against the dismal Nationals' offense otherwise Kawakami could have been in trouble. Well, the Marlins aren't the Nationals' and already in this series they batted .286 and .316 BA so I expect him to struggle facing a more potent lineup.

Meanwhile in the first start of the season Marlins' RHP Sanchez was solid against the Mets. He gave up four hits and three walks while striking out five in five scoreless innings. His command was phenomenal as 59 of 93 pitches were strikes and I expect Sanchez to perform fine today. Remember that slugger 3B Chipper Jones is out for this contest and catcher Brian Mccann is out as well so the Braves are without a considerable amount of power today. This is problematic for them as they struggled badly in the first two games of the series by batting only .133 and .188 BA.
Saying that I think that the wrong team is favored as the Marlins are the better team right now and the pitchers duel is slightly favorable for the Marlins as well. Take the Marlins in here


Pick: 2 units on Florida ML @ 2.18 on 5Dimes
Pick: 1 units on Florida RL -1.5 (Alternate Run Line) @ 2.80 The Greek




HOUSTON (2 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 4)
Thursday, 4/16/2009 12:35 PM RUSS ORTIZ (R) vs. JEFF KARSTENS (R)

The Astros' offense finally snapped their slump and scored 4 runs yesterday. It was a bad stretch of 4 consecutive games where they scored 3 or less runs but for today's game they are bringing some momentum and confidence…that's the consequences of winning. Today they send Russ Ortiz to the mound and he is underrated for this game. Ortiz had a relief appearance on April 8 after Moehler was knocked from the game in the second inning against the Cubs and Ortiz showed some stuff allowing three runs on four hits over three innings but striking out 6 Cubs' batters. Already in the spring training Ortiz impressed after going 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings! I expect him to perform fine today, he really wants a spot in the struggling Astro's rotations and he's doing for it.

Meanwhile the Pirates send Karstens to the mound. Karstens last season made 2 huge quality starts with a Pirates uniform but then he struggled badly the rest of the way. He didn't look sharp in the spring training. He has a stellar command however in the spring training he had 10SO and 8BB and definitively these numbers doesn't impress anyone. I think that the value is with the Astros in this contest. Ortiz can outduel Karstens and the Astros' offense will carry on yesterday's performance. Take the Astros in here.


Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on Houston ML @ 2.16 on Pinnacle




SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at LA DODGERS (6 - 3)
Thursday, 4/16/2009 10:10 PM BARRY ZITO (L) vs. ERIC STULTS (L)

Last night the Dodgers had some problems to beat the Giants and it wasn't any surprise for me as I had a bet on the Giants as Matt Cain is really in great form early in the season. Cain finished the game with a 2.08 ERA but the Dodgers still had 13 hits! Now the Giants send southpaw Barry Zito to the mound and there isn't any possible comparison between Cain and Zito.

Zito started awfully the season facing the Padres. He allowed four runs and seven hits and once again he is struggling in April like last season. This can be even worst for him as he faced the weak Padres' lineup…still he couldn't perform. Against a top class offense like the Dodgers I expect him to struggle even more. The Dodgers are red hot in this series with .395 and .371 BA and in the only game that they faced a LHP they crushed the Big Unit Randy Johnson with 7 runs and 8 hits in just 3 innings! The Dodgers have also crushed left-handed pitchers this season, batting .353 as a team versus LHP and averaging 12.9 runs per nine innings.This trend of the Dodgers vs. LHP is well documented as last season they were dominant vs. LHP when compared vs. RHP's.

Meanwhile the Dodgers send to the mound LHP Eric Stults who is coming from a good start. Stults allowed only one run over 5 1/3 innings @ Arizona while fanning 5 batters. He made a quality start last season when he faced the Giants allowing 2 runs in 4 innings but I have to say as well that at home Stults looked impressive with a 2.75 ERA and .197 BA allowed so we can expect a solid outing from him.

I like the Dodgers to roll tonight. They face a struggling LHP and this is great for them as Zito can't be compared to Matt Cain. Last night the Dodgers won by just one run in the 9th inning but today I expect a solid win. I was made a bet in the Over 4.5 runs for the Dodgers. I expect them to score at least 6/7 runs in this contest. Take the Dodgers in here.

Note: this is a double dime play so split the bet:

Pick: 2 units on LA Dodgers RL -1.5 @ 2.25 on Pinnacle
Pick: 2 units on LA Dodgers Over 4.5 (Team Total) @ 1.833 on Pinnacle

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Baseball
#907 - MLB - 2 units on Philadelphia -130
#910 - MLB - 2 units on NY Mets -123
#918 - MLB - 2 units on Minnesota +123

[Mr. IWS]

DWAYNE BRYANT

906 CHC (-111) Bookmaker.com vs 905 STL

Analysis:
The Cubs' Sean Marshall earned the team's fifth starting spot out of spring training and has not allowed a run in two relief appearances this season. After starting in his first two seasons, Marshall was the team's long reliever in 2008 and appeared in 34 games and made seven starts, finishing 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in his career against the Cardinals and took a win in his only start last season against St. Louis on July 6, giving up just one run over six innings.

St. Louis' Adam Wainwright is 1-3 with a 6.10 ERA in 15 lifetime appearances - six starts - against the Cubs.

The Cards' bullpen already has two blown saves to go along with a 4.70 ERA. The Cubs' pen owns a solid 3.00 ERA overall and a stellar 1.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home.

If you just look at the overall numbers, St. Louis (.296, 5.8 rpg) is hitting much better than the Cubs (.258, 5 rpg). But St. Louis is hitting just .239 (3.6 rpg) against lefty starters, while the Cubs are hitting .269 (5.4 rpg) against righty starters.

I'll take the Cubs with Marshall over St. Louis and Wainwright.


917 TOR (-140) BetUS vs 918 MIN

Analysis:
Roy Halladay allowed one run and five hits while striking out seven in seven innings to outpitch Cliff Lee in the Blue Jays' 5-4 win over the Indians on Saturday. "That's Doc," Toronto manager Cito Gaston said of the right-hander. "You kind of expect that out of him." Halladay is 7-0 with a 2.71 ERA in nine starts against the Twins.

That history doesn't bode well for the Twins, whose inconsistent offense was held to four hits Wednesday and has been outscored 22-11 by Toronto in this series. Justin Morneau is just 1-for-9 with three strikeouts against Halladay

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

04/16/2009

MLB Baseball
Mets -130 over Padres
Maine/Peavy

[Mr. IWS]

spartan | MLB Money Line
Thu, 04/16/09 - 7:10 PM ?T

double-dime bet
910 NYM (-125) vs 909 SDP
Analysis: A lot of folks will think they are getting an incredible value here with Jake Peavy taking the hill for the Padres as they continue their series against the Mets. I don't buy it, not for a minute. Actually to be candid I'm a big fan of Jake's. I watched both his early starts like a hawk and although it's not like he was getting blown u«p out there but I noticed a couple of things. He seemed to be having more trouble than usual keeping his heater down and the ball seemed a bit straighter than what you would typically see from him. John Maine is taking the ball for the Mets and although Maine can be maddening at times with his lack of consistencey I think this Padre lineup is tailor made for Maine. The Mets seem to be coming alive at the plate and I like laying the short number in this match up. The Padres always seem to struggle giving Jake the run support he'd like and I see Maine and the Mets getting us the job done here. I'm wagering on the home guys and tagging this baby a Double Star Release!

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Hockey
#59 - NHL - 3 units on Montreal +200
#64 - NHL - 3 units on Chicago -160

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Report

4* Chicago White Sox (Danks) -120 over Tampa Bay (Niemann)
Range: +100 to -140

3* L.A. Angels (Saunders) -140 over Seattle (Jakubauskas)
Range: -125 to -160

3* St. Louis (Wainwright) -105 over Chicago Cubs (Marshall)
Range: +115 to -125

[Mr. IWS]

Discount Sports Picks

5* Toronto (Halladay) -130 over Minnesota (Liriano)
5* Florida (Sanchez)/Atlanta (Kawakami) UNDER 9