4-17-09

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' NL Game of the Month

The Astros got shut out in consecutive games (totaled just seven hits) on Sunday (3-0 at St Louis) and Monday (7-0 at Pittsburgh), which dropped them to 1-6 to open the 2009 season. However, they've put together back-to-back wins with a 4-1 win on Wednesday and a 6-3 win on Thursday (both at Pittsburgh). Lance Berkman hit a tie-breaking three-run homer in the sixth inning in Thursday's win for the Astros. The Reds enter this game 4-4, losing their most recent game 9-3 at Milwaukee on Wednesday, after opening that three-game series with a 7-6 win on Monday and another victory on Tuesday (6-1). These teams open a four-game series tonight in Houston, with right-handers Cueto (Cin) and Oswalt (Hou) on the mound. The Reds were just 31-50 (minus-$1,246) on the road last year, including 17-33 (minus-$1,285) vs right-handers (averaged only 3.9 RPG). That's only part of Cincy's woes in this game. Roy Oswalt has absolutely 'OWNED' the Reds in his career, going 23-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 28 career games (26 starts) against them (Astros are 22-4 in those 26 starts). He suffered his only loss against the Reds back on April 28, 2006 and since then, has gone 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA over eight subsequent starts against Cincy. Just some quick notes regarding Oswalt's career, before getting to Cincy's starter, Johnny Cueto. Oswalt has been among MLB's finest pitchers since going 14-3 (2.73 ERA) in his first year with the team (2001). He was an Opening Day loser to Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs 4-2 in 2009, going seven innings, while allowing seven hits and three ERs. He then pitched poorly in St Louis on Saturday, allowing six runs and nine hits over six innings for the Astros in an 11-2 loss to the Cardinals. That outing was somewhat surprising, as he had a 1.83 ERA in five previous starts at the new Busch. He'll take a career 129-66 (3.15) mark into this game, which is a winning percentage of .662. It should also be noted that the Astros are an impressive 157-94 in all his starts (.625), with the breakdown being much more favorable at home (87-37 or .702) than it is on the road (70-57 or .551). That's more good news for the Astros. As for Cueto, he made a HUGE 'splash' last year (his rookie season) in his first two starts. He beat the D'backs in Cincy 3-2, going seven innings while allowing one hit and one ER and striking out 10 with no walks. In his next start at Milwaukee, he got a no-decision in a 3-2 loss, allowing five hits and two ERs in 6.1 innings (eight Ks and no walks). After two ML starts, Cueto was 1-0 with a 2.03, striking out 18 batters (with ZERO walks) in 13.1 innings. However, he finished the season 9-14 with 4.81 ERA in 31 starts (Reds were 12-19). That included an 0-3 mark with a 7.84 ERA in four starts vs the Astros (Reds lost all four games). Oswalt has yet to "hit his stride" in 2009 but what better team to do just that against, than the Reds? The Astros were 12-3 last year vs the Reds, plus Cueto's four starts vs Houston last year were a 'nightmare.'

NL Game of the Month on the Hou Astros

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS MLB

Baseball (MLB)

DIAMONDBACKS

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Game Time: 4/17/2009 10:15:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks Reason: I'm laying the price with ARIZONA. I typically don't play that much road "chalk," in any sport. However, every once in awhile, I feel that we can actually find strong value with the road favorite. I believe that this is one of those cases. Note that Arizona is 17-10 (+4) the last 27 times it was a road favorite in the -125 to -150 range. During the same stretch, the Giants were just 5-13 (-6.3) when listed as home underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. Haren goes for the visitors and he's already off to an 0-2 start. However, a closer look shows that he's been outstanding, recording a 2.08 ERA. As he noted: "I pride myself on being consistent, going out there every time and giving the team a chance. I've done that. I haven't gotten 'Ws,' but I'm where I need to be pitching-wise. You can't really measure a pitcher by wins and losses anyway. There's only so much I can control." Haren should finally get some run support this evening as he's matched up against Jonathan Sanchez. Like Haren, Sanchez (0-1) is still winless. Unlike Haren, he's made only one start and he got rocked. He lasted just 4 2/3 innings and gave up nine baserunners and five earned runs. That was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park vs. the light-hitting Padres, too. Note that Sanchez had a 5.01 ERA last year (5.88 in 2007!) and that he's 1-5 with an ugly 8.56 ERA and awful 2.012 WHIP in seven career starts versus Arizona. Of course, if Haren was pitching at home against Sanchez, he'd be a much higher-priced favorite. In fact, Haren was a bigger favorite than this in each of his last three home starts against the Giants and those games came against Cain (twice) and Lincecum, both of whom are much better than Sanchez. Haren was matched up against Sanchez once. That game came here last July and Arizona won by a score of 10-2. Including that result, Haren was 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA in four starts against the Giants last season. Look for him to continue his strong pitching this evening, only this time, look for it to lead to an Arizona victory. *NL Personal Favorite
TWINS

Game: Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 4/17/2009 8:10:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Twins Reason: I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Don't be fooled by their slow start. With their crew of high quality starters, the Angels remain the team to beat in the AL West. They showed that last night as Saunders held the Mariners to three hits and one run through seven complete innings, en route to a 5-1 LA victory. The Angels' problem is that they're not currently healthy. In fact, they're currently missing Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey AND Ervin Santana. That's opened the door for the likes of Dustin Moseley. He'll take the mound for the Halos for this evening's series opener at Minnesota. He'll be opposed by Nick Blackburn and I feel that gives an edge to Minnesota. Moseley has been fairly solid in his first two starts, going 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Note that both his starts came at home and that this will be his first on the road. Before getting too excited about Moseley's stats, keep in mind that he's still got an ugly 5.40 ERA in 63 Major League appearancess, 22 of them starts. He was 2-4 with a terrible 6.79 ERA last season with 10 of his 12 appearances coming as a starter. Opposing batters hit a whopping .343 against him in six road starts. Due to a sub-par outing his first time out, Blackburn's stats admittedly aren't that impressive yet. However, he was solid in his last start, allowing three runs in six complete innings vs. the White Sox. That's typically about what we came to expect from him, in terms of innings, as he averaged nearly six innings per start last season. In fact, he averaged greater than six innings per start when pitching at home. In 14 starts here, he was 8-3 with a stellar 2.95 ERA. Blackburn did lose his lone home start against the Angels, which came last April. However, that was hardly his fault. Indeed, he allowed just five hits and one run (6 K's, 1 walk) through seven complete innings. However, facing Saunders, the Twins couldn't provide any support and Blackburn got stuck with a 1-0 loss. With Moseley on the mound, he should get some runs to work with this time. While I expect the Twins to have an edge on the mound, I also like the scheduling situation. The Twins played here at Minnesota yesterday evening, losing to Roy Halladay and the Jays. Their game was already in the seventh inning before the first pitch in the Angels' game was even thrown. Off that late game, the Angels had to fly from Seattle all the way to Minnesota. Note that the Angels will also be without Vladimir Guerrero, as he returned to Los Angeles with a strained pectoral muscle, in order to see the team orthopedist. The Twins are 27-17 (+7.6) the the last 44 times that they played at home with a line ranging from +100 to -125. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 133-98 (+20.5) their last 241 in that role. I expect them to improve on those stats by starting this series off with a victory. *AL GOW

[Mr. IWS]

Ness

My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Fabulous Friday Total

Brewers/ Mets Over 9.5

[Mr. IWS]

big al,
At 8:05pm our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cincinnati Reds.

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman-------------------Toronto
Millionaire------------------Seattle
Insiders---------------------LA Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Friday ...

10 Dime Pirates - Not only did Florida awaken everyone to what it has to offer, by stuffing the Braves on their own field, but we saw Atlanta's offense pull a disappearing act. And now there's a chance Yunel Escobar will join Chipper Jones on the bench after straining an abdominal muscle. Jones is already out with a bruised thumb. Of course, there's not much to say about Pittsburgh's offense, as it is batting .178 and averaging 1.6 runs in its five losses. The good news is it is batting .353 and averaging 7.5 runs in its four wins. This one being at home, the Bucs are going to have plenty of confidence to break out offensively and stymie Atlanta. It's not impossible, as the Pirates won five of the teams' seven meetings last season, so let's bank on Paul Maholm to lead the Bucs to the win.



10 Dime Orioles - Three straight series wins, a 6-3 mark and now a weekend-set with an AL East rival that is 3-6. Thing is, the Red Sox are the ones with three wins, while Baltimore is the team that has been playing much better during the first couple of weeks. Baltimore started the campaign with series wins over AL East foes New York and Tampa Bay, and then took two of three from Texas this week. Why not keep it going against Boston? And I know the O's generally struggle at Fenway Park, but we're counting on Jeremy Guthrie. He's the only Baltimore starter to make it through six innings. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA thus far, while the O's are on winning runs of 7-2 in his last nine starts following a quality start, 6-2 when he pitches on five days's rest and 5-2 when he pitches in a series opener.



10 Dime Blue Jays - This offense has been quite impressive, wouldn't you say? After outscoring Minnesota 31-13 behind 56 hits in their third straight series win, the Jays are atop the bigs with 77 runs and 128 hits heading into the weekend. Perfect for us, as the Jays have dominated the Athletics of late, having won six straight in this series - including four in a row at Rogers Center. Coincidentally, Toronto's run against the A's has been because of offense, having outscored them 35-10 in the six wins. The Jays won the most recent series by a 21-9 tally. Game 1 could be ugly against young righty Josh Outman, who hasn't earned a decision yet, but does have a rather-high 6.23 ERA. Expect another breakout game by the Jays, as they'll chase Outman early.



5 Dime Dodgers - Five straight wins for the boys in blue, and it's been much in part to the balanced attack that has outscored opponents 37-10 during the streak. And at least five players have gotten a hit in each game, while at least three have driven in one run. That included last night's series finale against NL West-rival San Francisco, as the Dodgers watched seven different players record a hit. On top of that, Dodgers pitchers have allowed two runs or fewer in four of the five wins. And since the Dodgers won five of nine meetings at home against the Rockies last season, confidence will brew for this opener.



5 Dime Astros - Gotta like Houston-ace Roy Oswalt here, as the due theory kicks in thanks to his 0-2 start to the 2009 campaign, not to mention the generous 6.23 ERA he's posted. No time like the present for the right-hander, though, as Oswalt he's been near-perfect in his career against the Reds, sporting a 23-1 mark, along with a 2.47 ERA in 28 career games (26 of them being starts) against them. That remarkable record included an 8-0 mark with a 2.39 ERA in as many starts since suffering his lone loss to the Reds (in Cincinnati) almost three years ago. Even better, Oswalt has held the Reds to one run in each of his last three outings against them, while the Astros won 12 of 15 meetings with Cincy last season. This bonus winner is easy, as we take the 'Stros.



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