Mr. IWS
04-18-2009, 09:39 AM
Larry Ness Saturday
Larry Ness' 7* Daytime Dominator-TV
The Cubs and Cards opened a four-game set at Wrigley on Thursday, with the Cards winning 7-4. The Cards led the Cubs by a run with one out in the eighth last night but then Alfonso Soriano (who already had struck out three times in the game) hit a two-run HR, helping rally the Cubs to an 8-7 win. The Cubs were an impressive 55-26 in Wrigley last year and I expect them to be very tough again in "the friendly confines." The third game of this series matches Kyle Lohse against Ryan Dempster. Both pitchers are coming off impressive 2008 seasons. Lohse was 13-8 and 14-11 for the Twins back in 2002 and 2003 but then posted four consecutive sub-.500 seasons. He had a re-birth in St Louis last year, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 33 starts. He's off to a terrific start in 2009. Lohse threw a career-best three-hitter last Sunday in a 3-0 shutout win over the Astros at St Louis. He retired 24 in a row after giving up a single on his first pitch. He's s 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, which is what the Cardinals expected of him after signing him to a four-year, $41 million deal last September. Sunday's win marked his fifth career shutout and just his seventh complete game. Lohse also won his first start this season against the Pirates and has allowed two earned runs and just eight hits this season in 16 innings. However, he'll face a Chicago lineup which was 40-20 at home last year vs right-handed starters and while Lohse posted a 3.32 home ERA in 2008, it was 4.43 in his 15 road starts. Ryan Dempster gets the call for Chicago. He was a starter in his early years with the Marlins but from 2005-07, was the Cubs' closer. He was converted back to a starter last year, with OUTSTANDING results. Dempster was 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 33 regular season starts for Chicago, as the Cubs went 22-11 in those games. Most impressively, he was 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 20 starts (team was 16-4 or 80 percent!) in Wrigley last year. Lohse has not pitched at Wrigley since 2007 (with the Phillies) and went 0-1 with a 6.38 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season, although the Cards did win his two no-decisions. Meanwhile, Dempster posted a 2.31 ERA in winning both home starts vs the Cardinals in 2008. The Cards are really depending on Lohse with Chris Carpenter on the DL (strained left ribcage) but there is nothing in his past which should lead anyone to believe that he's a "top of the rotation guy!" This is Dempster's first home start of 2009 and setting couldn't be better. It's a day game at Wrigley against the team's longtime rival (Cards) and it's on TV. The Cubs won 80% (16-4) of Dempster's home starts last year and have thrived at home vs right-handers (40-20 LY / 2-2 start TY).
Daytime Dominator on the Chi Cubs
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider - NBA
Is the news of Kevin Garnett likely being out for the entire postseason a 'death sentence' for the Celtics? One thing's for sure, it wasn't good news. I read a preview of this series somewhere in which the author said, "this year's Bulls actually remind me of last year’s Atlanta Hawks. They are young and athletic, plus they’ve struggled with questionable coaching." Well most may remember that the Hawks took the Celtics to seven games last year but it should also be pointed out that the Hawks "never came close" in any of the four games played in Boston, losing on average by 102.3 PPG-to-77.0! The Bulls enter having won 12 of their last 16 games but going just 9-7 ATS. The Bulls were an impressive 14-2 SU at home after the All Star break but were hardly a good road team this year, going 13-28 SU (although they did go a much more respectable 20-20-1 ATS). Deng (14.1-6.0) is out for the year but he was not having a good season. The acquisitions of Salmons (17.6-4.1) and Miller (11.8-7.4) have been HUGE, as the Bulls are 16-11 in the 27 games they've played in for them, including that strong 12-4 finish. Gordon (20.7-3.5-3.4) led the team in scoring, while backcourt partner Rose (16.8-3.9-6.3), is a virtual 'lock' for rookie-of-the-year. Hinrich (9.9-3.9 APG) missed 31 games because of an injury and for the first time since entering the league, failed to increase his scoring average from the previous season. Tyrus Thomas (10.8-6.4) and Joakim Noah (6.7-7.6) have both played well at times in Chicago's frontcourt, while Tim Thomas has averaged 8.1 PPG and 3.3 RPG in his 23 games with the Bulls (his THIRD team this season). The Bulls are NOT a good defensive team, allowing 102.5 PPG and the Celtics shot 48.6 percent as a team, the second-best mark in the NBA. Of course, Garnett's (15.8-8.5) absence is HUGE, especially on the defensive end, as the Celtics finished with the third-best scoring defense in the league (93.4) plus the league's top-ranked defensive FG percentage (43.1).Garnett will be missed but Perkins (8.5-8.1) will get capable help inside from Powe (7.7-4.9), Davis (7.0-4.0) and even Mikki Moore (4.8-4.4 in 23 games with Boston). Rondo (11.9-5.2-8.2) proved himself in last year's postseason plus the Celtics have House (8.5) and Tony Allen (7.6) available. Boston fans are hoping Rivers keeps Marbury on the bench! The two remaining members of Boston's "Big Three" are Pierce (20.5-5.6-3.6) and Ray Allen (18.2-3.5-2.8). Pierce should welcome the challenge of trying to "win without KG" and I expect a HUGE first game out of last year's Finals MVP. The Celtics were are 18-7 SU without Garnett but well under .500 ATS without him. That's the key in this series. Few think it likely that the Bulls will be able to get past the Celtics but can Boston cover the almost double-digit pointspread they face in this game? In betting the NBA playoffs, I believe one is best-served by not considering before the start of a series, which team will win but rather to evaluate things on a game-by-game basis, adjusting to the flow of the series. "Gut instinct" often plays a key role and my gut says lay the points with Boston in this one.
Las Vegas Insider Bos Celtics
Larry's 9* PERFECT STORM - NBA
The Mavs opened the year 2-7 (0-4 at home) but rallied down the stretch to finish with 50 wins, the ninth consecutive season in which they've reached that plateau, as well as marking the team's ninth straight postseason appearance. The Mavs' strong finish allowed them to move up into the No. 6 seed in the tightly-bunched West and lo and behold, look who is waiting for them in the first round. None other than the hated San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs clinched the Southwest Division title on the final day of the regular season and enter the postseason as the West's third seed. While Dallas will be in its ninth consecutive postseason, the Spurs own the longest active postseason streak of any team, with 12 consecutive playoff appearances. More importantly, while the Mavs have never won an NBA title, the Spurs own four titles ((99, 03, 05 and 07). This is a bitter rivalry, fueled by the Spurs success and the Mavs lack of it. The 2005-06 season may have been the worst for Dallas fans, as the Mavericks eliminated the Spurs in the second round that year, by winning a Game 7 overtime contest in San Antonio and then advancing to the franchise's first-ever NBA Finals. The Mavs took a 2-0 lead on the Heat that year but fell part, losing four straight games. I've heard from a number of people that they feel this is a good matchup for the Mavs. The Spurs are an aging team and with Ginobili unavailable, they may just be right. Conventional wisdom says that the Mavs should be able to get past the Ginobili-less Spurs in the first round but I'm not so sure. I sure don't like the Mavs in Game 1. They made a huge comeback vs the Rockets on Wednesday, to send the Rockets reeling to a 5th-seed, while clinching this matchup with the Spurs for themselves. However, the recent Rockets are known best for their inability to win important games, while the Spurs are known for winning the big ones. Nowitzki (25.9-8.4) comes in having scored at least 20 points in 24 straight games, Terry (19.6-3.4 APG) is arguably the league's best sixth-man, plus Howard (18.0-5.1) has been getting by just fine on his bum ankle, as long as he's not asked to play back-to-back games (not the case here, or in any game in this series). Kidd (9.0-6.2-6.7) has clearly lost a step (or two) but he was a team-leader down the stretch. Duncan (19.3-10.7) is one of the league's all-time greats and still has something left in the tank. Parker (22.0-6.9 APG) is WAY too quick for Kidd which has been a problem, as he has abused by most of the quicker point guards in the West (Parker is right there near the top of that list). Mason (11.8-3.1) and the 6-10 Matt B (8.2-4.8) have shot 41.1 percent and 44.0 percent respectively, from three-point range, as the Spurs have been at or near the top in three-point percentage all season (finished 3rd-best at 38.6). Finley (9.7) has done a solid job and I like the late addition of Gooden, who averaged 9.8-4.4 in his 19 games with the Spurs. The Spurs still are capable of playing great defense (93.3 PPG ranked them No. 2 in the league), while the Mavs rank 15 in PPG allowed (99). Winning in Dallas, where the Mavs won 32 of their final 37 home games, will not come easily for the aging Spurs (especially without Manu), so 'holding serve' here at home, will be a must. Are the Spurs up to the challenge of this year's postseason? I can't imagine them beating the Lakers but they are sure 'live' against any of the West's other teams. As for Dallas in this series, I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Popovich has seen his team eliminated in just ONE of his 11 previous first round series and I see little reason to expect his team to "bow out early" this year. Expect the Mavs to have somewhat of a let down off their huge comeback win on Wednesday and for at least this first game, the Spurs to "wake up the echoes," as I still a phrase from Note Dame.
PERFECT STORM on the SA Spurs
Larry Ness' 7* Daytime Dominator-TV
The Cubs and Cards opened a four-game set at Wrigley on Thursday, with the Cards winning 7-4. The Cards led the Cubs by a run with one out in the eighth last night but then Alfonso Soriano (who already had struck out three times in the game) hit a two-run HR, helping rally the Cubs to an 8-7 win. The Cubs were an impressive 55-26 in Wrigley last year and I expect them to be very tough again in "the friendly confines." The third game of this series matches Kyle Lohse against Ryan Dempster. Both pitchers are coming off impressive 2008 seasons. Lohse was 13-8 and 14-11 for the Twins back in 2002 and 2003 but then posted four consecutive sub-.500 seasons. He had a re-birth in St Louis last year, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 33 starts. He's off to a terrific start in 2009. Lohse threw a career-best three-hitter last Sunday in a 3-0 shutout win over the Astros at St Louis. He retired 24 in a row after giving up a single on his first pitch. He's s 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, which is what the Cardinals expected of him after signing him to a four-year, $41 million deal last September. Sunday's win marked his fifth career shutout and just his seventh complete game. Lohse also won his first start this season against the Pirates and has allowed two earned runs and just eight hits this season in 16 innings. However, he'll face a Chicago lineup which was 40-20 at home last year vs right-handed starters and while Lohse posted a 3.32 home ERA in 2008, it was 4.43 in his 15 road starts. Ryan Dempster gets the call for Chicago. He was a starter in his early years with the Marlins but from 2005-07, was the Cubs' closer. He was converted back to a starter last year, with OUTSTANDING results. Dempster was 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 33 regular season starts for Chicago, as the Cubs went 22-11 in those games. Most impressively, he was 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 20 starts (team was 16-4 or 80 percent!) in Wrigley last year. Lohse has not pitched at Wrigley since 2007 (with the Phillies) and went 0-1 with a 6.38 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season, although the Cards did win his two no-decisions. Meanwhile, Dempster posted a 2.31 ERA in winning both home starts vs the Cardinals in 2008. The Cards are really depending on Lohse with Chris Carpenter on the DL (strained left ribcage) but there is nothing in his past which should lead anyone to believe that he's a "top of the rotation guy!" This is Dempster's first home start of 2009 and setting couldn't be better. It's a day game at Wrigley against the team's longtime rival (Cards) and it's on TV. The Cubs won 80% (16-4) of Dempster's home starts last year and have thrived at home vs right-handers (40-20 LY / 2-2 start TY).
Daytime Dominator on the Chi Cubs
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider - NBA
Is the news of Kevin Garnett likely being out for the entire postseason a 'death sentence' for the Celtics? One thing's for sure, it wasn't good news. I read a preview of this series somewhere in which the author said, "this year's Bulls actually remind me of last year’s Atlanta Hawks. They are young and athletic, plus they’ve struggled with questionable coaching." Well most may remember that the Hawks took the Celtics to seven games last year but it should also be pointed out that the Hawks "never came close" in any of the four games played in Boston, losing on average by 102.3 PPG-to-77.0! The Bulls enter having won 12 of their last 16 games but going just 9-7 ATS. The Bulls were an impressive 14-2 SU at home after the All Star break but were hardly a good road team this year, going 13-28 SU (although they did go a much more respectable 20-20-1 ATS). Deng (14.1-6.0) is out for the year but he was not having a good season. The acquisitions of Salmons (17.6-4.1) and Miller (11.8-7.4) have been HUGE, as the Bulls are 16-11 in the 27 games they've played in for them, including that strong 12-4 finish. Gordon (20.7-3.5-3.4) led the team in scoring, while backcourt partner Rose (16.8-3.9-6.3), is a virtual 'lock' for rookie-of-the-year. Hinrich (9.9-3.9 APG) missed 31 games because of an injury and for the first time since entering the league, failed to increase his scoring average from the previous season. Tyrus Thomas (10.8-6.4) and Joakim Noah (6.7-7.6) have both played well at times in Chicago's frontcourt, while Tim Thomas has averaged 8.1 PPG and 3.3 RPG in his 23 games with the Bulls (his THIRD team this season). The Bulls are NOT a good defensive team, allowing 102.5 PPG and the Celtics shot 48.6 percent as a team, the second-best mark in the NBA. Of course, Garnett's (15.8-8.5) absence is HUGE, especially on the defensive end, as the Celtics finished with the third-best scoring defense in the league (93.4) plus the league's top-ranked defensive FG percentage (43.1).Garnett will be missed but Perkins (8.5-8.1) will get capable help inside from Powe (7.7-4.9), Davis (7.0-4.0) and even Mikki Moore (4.8-4.4 in 23 games with Boston). Rondo (11.9-5.2-8.2) proved himself in last year's postseason plus the Celtics have House (8.5) and Tony Allen (7.6) available. Boston fans are hoping Rivers keeps Marbury on the bench! The two remaining members of Boston's "Big Three" are Pierce (20.5-5.6-3.6) and Ray Allen (18.2-3.5-2.8). Pierce should welcome the challenge of trying to "win without KG" and I expect a HUGE first game out of last year's Finals MVP. The Celtics were are 18-7 SU without Garnett but well under .500 ATS without him. That's the key in this series. Few think it likely that the Bulls will be able to get past the Celtics but can Boston cover the almost double-digit pointspread they face in this game? In betting the NBA playoffs, I believe one is best-served by not considering before the start of a series, which team will win but rather to evaluate things on a game-by-game basis, adjusting to the flow of the series. "Gut instinct" often plays a key role and my gut says lay the points with Boston in this one.
Las Vegas Insider Bos Celtics
Larry's 9* PERFECT STORM - NBA
The Mavs opened the year 2-7 (0-4 at home) but rallied down the stretch to finish with 50 wins, the ninth consecutive season in which they've reached that plateau, as well as marking the team's ninth straight postseason appearance. The Mavs' strong finish allowed them to move up into the No. 6 seed in the tightly-bunched West and lo and behold, look who is waiting for them in the first round. None other than the hated San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs clinched the Southwest Division title on the final day of the regular season and enter the postseason as the West's third seed. While Dallas will be in its ninth consecutive postseason, the Spurs own the longest active postseason streak of any team, with 12 consecutive playoff appearances. More importantly, while the Mavs have never won an NBA title, the Spurs own four titles ((99, 03, 05 and 07). This is a bitter rivalry, fueled by the Spurs success and the Mavs lack of it. The 2005-06 season may have been the worst for Dallas fans, as the Mavericks eliminated the Spurs in the second round that year, by winning a Game 7 overtime contest in San Antonio and then advancing to the franchise's first-ever NBA Finals. The Mavs took a 2-0 lead on the Heat that year but fell part, losing four straight games. I've heard from a number of people that they feel this is a good matchup for the Mavs. The Spurs are an aging team and with Ginobili unavailable, they may just be right. Conventional wisdom says that the Mavs should be able to get past the Ginobili-less Spurs in the first round but I'm not so sure. I sure don't like the Mavs in Game 1. They made a huge comeback vs the Rockets on Wednesday, to send the Rockets reeling to a 5th-seed, while clinching this matchup with the Spurs for themselves. However, the recent Rockets are known best for their inability to win important games, while the Spurs are known for winning the big ones. Nowitzki (25.9-8.4) comes in having scored at least 20 points in 24 straight games, Terry (19.6-3.4 APG) is arguably the league's best sixth-man, plus Howard (18.0-5.1) has been getting by just fine on his bum ankle, as long as he's not asked to play back-to-back games (not the case here, or in any game in this series). Kidd (9.0-6.2-6.7) has clearly lost a step (or two) but he was a team-leader down the stretch. Duncan (19.3-10.7) is one of the league's all-time greats and still has something left in the tank. Parker (22.0-6.9 APG) is WAY too quick for Kidd which has been a problem, as he has abused by most of the quicker point guards in the West (Parker is right there near the top of that list). Mason (11.8-3.1) and the 6-10 Matt B (8.2-4.8) have shot 41.1 percent and 44.0 percent respectively, from three-point range, as the Spurs have been at or near the top in three-point percentage all season (finished 3rd-best at 38.6). Finley (9.7) has done a solid job and I like the late addition of Gooden, who averaged 9.8-4.4 in his 19 games with the Spurs. The Spurs still are capable of playing great defense (93.3 PPG ranked them No. 2 in the league), while the Mavs rank 15 in PPG allowed (99). Winning in Dallas, where the Mavs won 32 of their final 37 home games, will not come easily for the aging Spurs (especially without Manu), so 'holding serve' here at home, will be a must. Are the Spurs up to the challenge of this year's postseason? I can't imagine them beating the Lakers but they are sure 'live' against any of the West's other teams. As for Dallas in this series, I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Popovich has seen his team eliminated in just ONE of his 11 previous first round series and I see little reason to expect his team to "bow out early" this year. Expect the Mavs to have somewhat of a let down off their huge comeback win on Wednesday and for at least this first game, the Spurs to "wake up the echoes," as I still a phrase from Note Dame.
PERFECT STORM on the SA Spurs