4-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Baseball
#952 - MLB - 3 units on Cincinnati +117
#963 - MLB - 3 units on LA Dodgers +113
#966 - MLB - 3 units on San Diego -121
#974 - MLB - 3 units on Cleveland -128
#975 - MLB - 3 units on Texas +110

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Hockey
#44 - NHL - 3 units on San Jose -210

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#520 - NBA - 3 units on New Orleans -4.5
#524 - NBA - 3 units on Miami -4
#526 - NBA - 3 units on Utah +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Report

4* L.A. Lakers -4 over Utah (NBA)
Range: -2.5 to -6

3* Houston (Hampton) -125 over Milwaukee (Suppan)
Range: -110 to -145

3* Florida (Volstad) -130 over Philadelphia (Park)
Range: -115 to -150

[Mr. IWS]

Elite Sports Picks

Kansas City (Davies) -115 over Detroit (Miner)

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
50 Dime ---- HEAT

20 Dime ---- LAKERS

MIAMI HEAT --- Absolutely love this play tonight. I've been waiting for this series to come back to Miami since it started, and it actually plays into our hands that Miami won game 2 the way they did.

After the Heat suffered a near 30-point beatdown in Game 1, they answered the call in Game 2 and scored 108 points in a 15-point win. Dwayne Wade looked as good as he has all season and led this team on the offensive and defensive end of the floor. You see, that's the difference here. Wade has the experience of playing in (and winning) an NBA Championship, and if he has to, he'll carry this team on his back to the next round. Atlanta is a nice, young team that really has no veteran leadership... no one they can rely on in crunch time.

But to be honest, one of the biggest reasons I like this game tonight is home court advantage. It's not often I back a team based as much on the home court as I'm doing tonight. But there's something about Miami and playing at home that I simply can't ignore. Not only has this team covered seven of their last ten home games, they've won 28 of 41 home contests and their average margin of victory in their last ten was nearly 10 PPG.

Miami's last home game vs. Atlanta this season (January 26th) was a 95-79 win completely dominated by the Heat in the second quarter. In this series, whoever wins the second quarter wins the game and wins big. It seems as if that's been the status quo in this series to date.

Do you trust Atlanta on the road, seriously? They are just 3-7 ATS in their last seven roadies and haven't competed in five of them. Their last two road wins came against lowly Toronto and Milwaukee and that's because neither of those teams play a lick of defense.

The Hawks don't have a single trend in their favor, dropping their last four ATS as a dog, six of their last seven after allowing 100+ points in the previous game, and four of their last five overall. Miami, meanwhile, has covered their last five home games vs. a team with a losing record on the road and five of their last six home games when giving between 1 and 5 points.

This one is all Heat and it's my favorite game of the playoffs thus far.

LAKERS --- Okay, the fun's over for Utah. It was a nice comeback win over LA in Game 3 but it took the Lakers completely falling apart in the fourth quarter to get Utah back in the game and eventually over the hump. The Lakers held a 64-51 third quarter lead with just a few minutes left, but allowed Utah back in the game with dismal shooting. That might happen on a rare occasion now and then, but it won't happen in back-to-back games. Not with the Lakers.

LA cruised to two easy wins at home, and despite slipping in the 4th quarter a few days ago, they're clearly the better team and won't let another win slip away from them. Pau Gasol won't miss six free throws and Kobe Bryant won't miss 19 shots and Utah won't be close in the fourth quarter.

Yes, I realize the Jazz are an impressive 33-8 at home, but I'm also aware the Lakers are 29-12 on the road and I know they'll come out with a new attitude after letting Game 3 get away.

The Lakers have covered five of their last seven as a favorite and six of their last eight in this round of the playoffs. Utah is a measly 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they don't play well on Saturdays (if you believe in that stuff).

Bottom line: the Lakers are better, and when you can get a #1 seed giving just a few points against an 8-seed, you take it. Lakers win 105-95 and get the easy cover tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers


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Nuggets 20* BigTicket!

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK FREEHOLD, NEW JERSEY WISE GUYS

25 DIME RELEASE

Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

Howie Feiner

Howie's 100 Dime NBA Western Conference Playoff Winner
L.A. Lakers (209) at Utah Jazz (+4') – 9:05 p.m.
Analysis By 3:00, ET
Utah Jazz (+4') 100 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
1000*s - New Orleans Hornets, Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota w/Slowey over Pavano Early start time has to favor the Hornets in this one, and the fact the Bugs lose this game, and they are toast also favors the team from the Big Easy.

As dominant as Denver was on their home floor, I doubt they will be able to make it translate on the road, at least not in this game.

Denver won the last series meeting in New Orleans, 101-88 back at the end of March, so taking the points would appear to be enticing, but you know how the NBA playoffs go, so my money is on the Hornets to get on board in the series with the win, and the cover this afternoon.

It's do-or-die for New Orleans, and I expect them to survive this critical game.

1000? - New Orleans Hornets - 1:00 pm

I think the linesmakers have a bit of a quandry here, as both games played in Atlanta were blowouts, the Hawks scoring the win in Game 1, the Heat returning the favor in Game 2.

I have a feeling this is game is going to be the game in which we see a tightly contested battle.

The Hawks were unable to break through on the playoff road last year against Boston, but the experience they gained in that seven game set was invaluable, and that should translate to a competitive effort in today's swing game.

Aside from D-Wade, this Miami team does not have a whole lot of veteran leadership, and you saw how that worked out for Chicago after they split the first pair in Boston earlier this week.

The Hawks have still won 7 of the last 10 meetings straight up, and getting points today they are the play.

1000? - Atlanta Hawks - 6:35 pm

On the diamond, I expect a wild one between Minnesota and Cleveland.

Both Kevin Slowey, and Carl Pavano pitched well their last time out, but their previous 2 starts left a lot to be desired, as both were hit pretty hard.

Both teams have yet to hit their stride, but I expect Minnesota to get things going before Cleveland does. The Twins took last night's game with ease, and I expect them to do some more damage tonight.

At a near pick, prefer to side with the Twins and Slowey, as I have seen enough of Pavano to know he could give up an 8-spot early in this game.

Take Minnesota

1000? - Minnesota w/Slowey over Pavano

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Pirates +105 over Padres
Duke/Hill

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

6* Mavs -4
10* Hornets/Nuggets under 198 (NBA Playoffs Total of the Year)

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports NBA

6 Units

Denver +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

charlie
nba. denver @ new orleans over 197 & atlanta+4 (500*).
nba. lakers-4' (30*)
nba. spurs @ dallas over 188 (20*)
nba. new orleans-4' (20*)
nba. atlanta @ miami under 186(10*)
nba. spurs+4' (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

10 units Mavericks
3 units Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Lakers
4 Hornets

ATS Financial
4 Mavs
3 Heat

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

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Game: Denver at New Orleans (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: First Half UNDER 99 -110
There is a contrast between these teams’ styles at home and on the road. Particularly in the situation that applies here as we have a top 10 offense against a top 10 defense. This should be a statement game for the Hornets, and their best statement can be made on the defensive end, where I expect them to come out playing very intensely. There is also a situation that is live for this game that shows when the total is in this range, a team off a 10+ point win that is well rested (five games or less in 14 days), has shown the first half to go UNDER to the tune of 46-17. That is 73% of the time. As a result, I will play the first-half UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Drew Gordon Today's Games...

1. 300,000? Hawks
2. 50,000? Royals

1. Hawks- You really think handicapping Game 3 is as easy as: "The Hawks are bad on the road, therefore the Heat will win at home." Guys, you can take all of those trends about the Hawks past road play and throw them out the window. If you know how terrible the Hawks have been on the road, then you better believe that Vegas knows this too. Consider: If Atlanta is so terrible on the road, then why are they only slight underdogs in this spot? I've told you once & I'll tell you again: Vegas is not in the business of handing out freebies!

So let's breakdown Game 2, and you'll see why a repeat performance by the Heat is unlikely. Wednesday's 108-93 wallop of the Hawks happened for three reasons: A. Dwayne Wade went bonkers, scoring 33 points on 11 of 20 shooting (which was expected after a terrible Game 1 effort). B. Joe Johnson played terrible, with just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting. And C. The Hawks ultra-athletic frontcourt got outplayed by a Heat frontline coming off an embarassing effort in Game 1.

While we can expect D. Wade to continue to play well, two things I don't see happening again are Joe Johnson playing poorly and the Hawks frontcourt getting outplayed. When Wade played like garbage in Game 1, I told you to expect him to come out highly motivated in Game 2 and he did... I'll tell you the same thing about Joe Johnson, as the Hawks star guard will not be held down two games in a row. Also, for O'Neal, Haslem, and the rest of the Heat forwards to outplay Smith, Williams and Horford is a disgrace, because we all know the Hawks are far more talented in their frontcourt. Sorry Heat-backers, but the truth is the truth, and I highly doubt we'll see that kind of effort out of Jermaine O'Neal two games in a row.

Finally, besides Dwayne Wade's outstanding effort, the Heat won Game 2 for one other reason: 3-point shooting. Rest-assured, as someone who's followed them very closely this season, the Heat cannot & will not repeat their 15 of 27 barrage from the 3-point line tonight. Guys, we're talking about a team that shoots 35% from long range on the season, so to expect them to shoot 22 percentage points higher (57% in Game 2) again tonight is ridiculous. In fact, I'm counting on the Heat to go "3-point happy" again tonight, and when the shots stop falling, the Hawks will reassert themselves as the superior TEAM in this series. Heat may have Wade, but Hawks are MUCH better team overall. Don't believe the hype, Altanta is the play Saturday night.

Take the Hawks plus the points over the Heat as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Royals- Although Davies was a little shaky early on in his last start, there's no question you give him the edge here in tonight's pitching match up. Despite the 5 walks in his last one, two of Davies' three starts this season have been quality efforts, and the fact he's posted a 2.89 ERA thus far only lends credence to the fact his turnaround last season was the for real. He lost all three starts against the Tigers last season, but look for a better outcome this time around.

It doesn't hurt that his counterpart Zach Miner is coming off an ugly ugly effort vs the White Sox, in which he allowed a whopping 8 runs in just 3 1/3 innings! True, we can all agree the cold weather has a lot to with that, but I'm not convinced that Miner is simply going to turn it around tonight. Yes, he had success against the Royals last season, but he did lose his last start against them, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings back in September.

While the Tigers continue to hit lefties well, their .265 average against righties is nothing to write home about, and they proved that by getting nowhere fast against Zach Greinke in yesterday's 6-1 loss! Of course, Greinke is a superior pitcher to Davies, but fact remains the Tigers do not hit righties particularly well. Also of note, the Royals offense should get a nice boost tonight from the return of Jose Guillen, who hasn't played since April 9th.

Bottom line, I'm looking for the Royals to build off yesterday's dominant effort by Greinke with another strong effort from Davies in this one. The Tigers have been unimpressive on the road (5-15 L20 away), while the Royals are an outstanding 9-0 in their L9 games as a home favorite! Kansas City takes care of business at Kauffman Saturday!

Take the Royals behind Davies over the Tigers and Miner in this MLB match up

[Mr. IWS]

JMKWINNERS


15* Denver Nuggets 1:00pm ET

10* New York Mets 1:10pm ET

10* Atlanta Hawks 6:30pm ET

15* Houston Astros 7:05pm ET

15* Minnesota Twins 7:05pm ET

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

Saturday's Card

10 Dime Hornets (1st Half)

10 Dime Spurs (1st Half)

10 Dime Spurs (Game)

[Mr. IWS]

Gameday sports

rare 5* game atlanta +4
2* san antonio +4-
2* new york yanks(burnette)

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners
10* Spurs +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

JAMIE TURSINI

Atlanta at Miami
Pick: Over 184.5

I think clearly that the oddsmakers have not caught up with this series. Game 2's 108-93 Miami win I think shows what type of scores we can expect from here on out in this series. Atlanta doesn't play any defense on the road. On average they lose 97.6 to 100.1 this season. Miami wins at home on average 100.8 to 96.6. There's too many offensive playmakers on both sides for this number to be so low. Play the over.

[Mr. IWS]

MTi Sports

Atlanta at Miami
Play: Atlanta +4

The Hawks were completely flat in game two, after their blowout win in game one. They should be ready here, while the Heat should be the team that comes out flat.Miami hot 58% from three-point range in game two, making 15-of-26. Dwyane Wade was 6-of-10 from the arc and Daquean Cook bested him, making 6-of-9 from long range off the bench.This is the kiss-of-death for the Heat. Miami is 0-9 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, failing to cover by an average of 13.7 ppg. More to the point, the Heat are 0-18-1 ATS when they are at home with rest off a game in which they attempted at least ten threes and made more than 45% of them. They lost each of their last 14 straight up, many times as a favorite.In addition, Miami is 0-6 ATS (-13.6 ppg) at home after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. Dwyane Wade, scored 33 points in game two, but he also committed five turnovers. This is relevant because the Heat are 0-8 ATS (-10.1 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Dwyane Wade had at least 5 turnovers. Miami is also 0-6 ATS (-12.1 ppg) at home after two away games in which Udonis Haslem took fewer than 10 shots in each and 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) at home after a win in which Mario Chalmers played fewer than 30 minutes.The Hawks are 5-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Josh Smith had a double-double. With the Hawks’ veteran leadership at the guard spots, they should get their home court advantage back right here.

MTi’s FORECAST: Atlanta 94 MIAMI 92

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferrrrringo-->Frigid cold!

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1-Unit Play. Take #951 Atlanta (-110) over Cincinnati
1.5-Unit Play. Take #964 Colorado (-120) over L.A. Dodgers
1-Unit Play. Take #966 San Diego (-130) over Pittsburgh


Today's Totals
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 L.A. Dodgers at Colorado
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Pittsburgh at San Diego
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Francisco at Arizona
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Washington at N.Y. Mets
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 N.Y. Yankees at Boston
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Seattle at L.A. Angels
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Toronto at White Sox
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago Cubs at St. Louis

[Mr. IWS]

Docs NHL

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Philadelphia and Calgary for 3 units each

[Mr. IWS]

indiancowboy

6 Unit Play (For yearly clients, this is a 5*). Take Under 196.5 between Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Hornets

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops

5* Yankees +131 **POD**
5* Angels OVER 9.5
5* Kansas City -113
4* Oakland +102

5* New Orleans UNDER 196.5
3* San Antonio +4.5
3* Utah Jazz +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

20* minn
20* sf ariz under
30* hous
50* wash mets over
50* cws
30* chi (nhl)
300* den n.o under

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK
5 over 11 Tex
4 Pitt
4 TB Rays

[Mr. IWS]

SquaresWanted

Sharp - Ivan LaFlare

Sport Picks for Saturday, April 25, 2009

LA Lakers vs Utah Jazz
10-Stacks Lakers (-4.5)
@ 5Dimes

Game 4 between the Lakers and the Jazz takes place tonight in Utah. Thursday night the Jazz stole the game away from the Lakers to force at least a game 5. Deron Williams last minute shoot saved a what might have been a sweep of the 8th seed Jazz. But tonight will be a different story. The Lakers will win a game in Utah. LA has played well going 29-12 on the road this season. Utah is a brutal enviroment, but nothing this ultra talented Laker team shouldn't handle. If you forgot, the Lakers broke the Cavs home winning streak handing them there first loss at home this season. Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant are on the same page. They have opportunity knocking at the door, and she wants to deliver an NBA Championship. Look for LAs bigs to play a major role tonight. Utah's Center Okur is not 100 percent and they will have trouble stopping Bynum and Gasol down low. Bynum was held back by foul problems in Game 3. He and Gasol will be the difference maker tonight as I predict they will go for about 30 points and 25 rebounds combined tonight. This is just too much of an inside presence. Kobe has matured and will let the big guys establish the inside early. The Jazz used all they had to beat the Laker in game 3. The gas tank is running on E. The home crowd will get the Jazz through the first 2 quarter but the Kobe Show will be seen in the 2nd half. The Lakers will win big tonight. Absolutely 0% Chance this series gets

[Mr. IWS]

ProPicksWeekly Premium Picks

Today's Picks

Saturday, April 25, 2009

10˜ Atlanta -122 ov CINCINNATI (1:00pm EST)
10˜ Chicago -106 ov ST. LOUIS (4:00pm EST)
10˜ HOUSTON -128 ov Milwaukee (7:00pm EST)
10˜ MINNESOTA +125 ov Cleveland (7:00pm EST)
10˜ KANSAS CITY -123 ov Detroit (7:00pm EST)
10˜ FLORIDA -137 ov PHILADELPHIA (7:00pm EST)
10˜ Denver +4.5 ov NEW ORLEANS (1:00pm EST)

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
over colorado and royals.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferrringo Today's Totals
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 L.A. Dodgers at Colorado
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Pittsburgh at San Diego
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Francisco at Arizona
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Washington at N.Y. Mets
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 N.Y. Yankees at Boston
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Seattle at L.A. Angels
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Toronto at White Sox
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago Cubs at St. Louis

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney


20 DIME DALLAS MAVERICKS - Not sure what the reasoning might be, other than which team is the higher seed, but how anyone is shocked at how this series is gone hasn’t paid close enough attention.



Dallas, undoubtedly, is the stronger team of these two, despite finishing beneath the Spurs in the Southwest. Honestly, have you watched this team execute on offense? It’s clicking, and that’s what matters when you’re at home. The catch is, this team is concentrating on defense, and completely shutting down the Spurs, since their offense is all they’ve got.



If Dallas comes out scoring, and the Spurs can’t match that intensity, it’s all over – plain and simple. And that’s what I am counting on. The team is shooting 47.3 percent from the field, an improvement over its regular-season percentage. And with that transition game working so well, the confidence grows as well.



I like the home chalk here.



5 DIME COLORADO ROCKIES (WITH Jimenez and McDonald) - A pitching rematch and I’ll take the home team here. James McDonald won’t know about the pitching in Coors Field, and will make too many mistakes over the zone.



Ubaldo Jimenez was rocked by the Dodgers once already, but on his home turf, he’ll be much more confident. Not much to say except I like the revenge factor, and I like our chances with a Rockies lineup teeing off on someone who has no clue about the rarified air.

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
NBA LA Lakers @ Utah 9:05 PM EST 20* Utah +4.5
MLB NY Yankees @ Boston 4:10 PM EST 20* Boston -140
NBA Denver @ New Orleans 1:05 PM EST 10* Denver +4.5
NBA San Antonio @ Dallas 4:05 PM EST 10* San Antonio +4.5
MLB Dodgers @ Colorado 8:10 PM EST 10* Dodgers +115
NBA Atlanta @ Miami 6:30 PM EST 10* Atlanta +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

ASA 4* N.O./Denv Under

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers
reg - Over 7.5 Padres

[Mr. IWS]

rob veno
20* over dallas

[Mr. IWS]

VR's SATURDAY NIGHT's WBC 168-pound TITLE FIGHT
3* FIGHT OF THE WEEK = JERMAIN "Bad Intentions" TAYLOR -125 over Carl Froc

Froch comes in as the Champion and has an undefeated record...the problem is, that record has been built without fighting quality opponents...In fact, this is an extremely huge jump in competition for him...While believe it or not, for Taylor this may very well be a much bigger drop in competition than many sports writers believe...

The bottom line here is that since going back to his long-time trainer, Taylor has looked great...He looks like the fighter who beat Hopkinsand was being touted as one of the Pound-for-Pound Best...Then, to try
and further his skills even more...Taylor made the mistake of switching trainers...And as much as I love Manny Stewart, these 2 just couldn't click and it was evident in each of his fights...

Stewart was attempting to change Taylor's style just a bit too much...and you can tell that he looked confused many times in the ring.

And after watching his fight with Lacy again last night...I can see the Jermain Taylor of old, the one who earned the name "Bad Intentions"...And getting this Title will be huge, as I have already heard that a possible TAYLOR vs MIRANDA mega fight may be on the horizon...

More importantly...this fight is taking place right here in the US (Foxwoods Casino in Conn)...and will be the 2nd time the Nottingham England Champ, is making the trip over to test his skills...and obviously cash in on his title defense...(The 1st was in Cali vs a "Club Fughter")

Although many have been able to make the transition with sucess (Calzaghe, Hatton, ect)...I believe Froch's handlers have made a HUGE error by not coming over at least 2 weeks prior to the fight, to get acclimated...

This really comes down to Taylor just being the much better...much more battle tested, fighter...And there is a reason the "Challenger" is the Favorite, over the "Champion"...Taylor will be able to use his jab
enough to make is difficult for Froch to get off...and

This may not be the easiest night for Taylor...but it's a night where he will re-claim a championship..

Let's go ahead and see if we can remain PERFECT on our 3* FIGHT BEST BETS...and lay a 3* BOMB on JERMAIN "BAD INTENTIONS" TAYLOR...to get the job done on Saturday Night...VR

I ADVISE THAT YOU PLACE THIS BET IMMEDIATELY...AFTER CONFIRMING IT LATE
LAST NIGHT (THURS)...I WAS ABLE TO BET TAYLOR -116 THROUGH MY PINNY
REP...ONLY TO WAKE UP THIS MORNING AND SEE THAT THEIR SITE HAS HIM UP
TO -123 ALREADY...AND AFTER SPEAKING TO SOME WISEGUYS, BOTH HERE IN
VEGAS AND BACK EAST...I CAN TELL YOU THAT MANY OF THEM WILL ALSO BE
TAKING A POSITION ON TAYLOR...WHICH WILL DEFINITALY MOVE THIS LINE UP
BEFORE FIGHT NIGHT !!

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
5 Dime - LA Lakers



Interesting line in tonight's game. Los Angeles toys with Utah in Games One and Two at home and in Thursday's Game Three is only a 1 1/2 to 2-point favorite. The Lakers rally from 10 points down early, blow a 13-point, third-quarter lead, and end up losing 88-86. Yet tonight in Game Four, the oddsmakers have price LA at around 4 1/2 points.



As I've noted many times here and in media appearances, the biggest mistake gamblers make is how they perceive lines. Always keep in mind the linemakers want two-sided action on the game; that's how they maximize their earnings. Obviously, the public is going to be on Los Angeles today because A) they're the Lakers and B) they're the favorite and basic human nature finds us always leaning toward the chalk. But clearly the oddsmakers are begging you, enticing you, to take the Jazz by dangling those generous points, nearly 2 1/2 more than Utah got in Game Three, a game it won.



With the exception of Lamar Odom (21 points, 14 rebounds) and Pau Gasol (20 points, 9 rebounds), the Lakers were awful in Game Three. Kobe shot 5-for-24 from the floor and scored only 18 points. Andrew Bynum (4 points, 2 rebounds) was nearly invisible, playing just seven minutes because of foul trouble. As a team, LA shot just 36.8% and got crushed on the boards 55-40.



All that being said, the Jazz needed a Deron Williams' jumper with 2.2 seconds to play and a monster game from Carlos Boozer (23 points, 22 rebounds) to escape with the home win.



There's a reason I stay away, generally speaking, from the third game of an NBA playoff series -- especially those where the road team is already up 2-0. I want to see how the favorite, the Lakers in this case, and the team playing in desperation, obviously the Jazz here, respond. But more importantly, I want to see how the game plays out so I can get an edge in Game Four.



The same way the oddsmakers are betting on the public being unable to resist the lure of those 4 1/2 points being dangled in their direction, I'm willing to bet that Kobe doesn't shoot 5-for-24 again, that the Lakers don't get hammered as badly on the boards (yes, they will get outrebounded, but not by 15), and LA realizes it does not want to have this series extended any further than need be with a tough Western Conference playoff schedule ahead of it.



The Jazz were a team that rarely played with much heart this season against favored opponents. They had a heartbeat on Thursday. I'm betting that even with the possible return of Mehmet Okur, who has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury, Utah is sent back to the critical care unit tonight by a decisive LA victory