4-28-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

04-28-2009, 01:45 PM

Ness

My 20* play is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Blazers ended a five-year playoff drought this season, going 54-28 and claiming the West's No. 4 seed. However, Portland is the youngest team of the 16 playoff participants and there are 'whispers" that it's showing. Yao had 21 points and 12 rebounds in Houston's Game 4 win and is averaging 15.8 PPG and 10.5 RPG in the series. Portland's two-headed center combo of Pryzbilla (4.0-7.5) and Oden (6.2-4.0) has for the most part, been ineffective. The Rockets, who are looking to advance past the opening round of the playoffs for the first time since 1997 (Houston's lost all six of its postseason series since that year), have five other players joining Yao in averaging double figures. Scola (16.8-7.5) leads the team in playoff scoring, followed by Yao, Brooks (16.5-4.8 APG), Artest (14.2-3.5-4.8), Wafer (11.2) and Battier (10.0-5.8). Meanwhile, like in the regular season, the Blazers have been led by Roy (28.2-5.2-2.5) and Aldridge (16.5-8.2). However, unlike during the regular season, the Blazers are not getting enough contributions from their role players. Roy is battling the flu and Aldridge is fighting some elbow problems but both are expected to be just fine. Roy had a 42-point game in Portland's lone win this series (107-103 in Game 2) plus Aldridge added 27 and 12. That was also the only game in which Portland conatined Yao, holding him to just six FG attempts in 31-plus minutes (11 points / eight rebounds). I'm not ready to count Portland out just yet. The team was 34-7 SU (27-14 ATS) here in the Rose Garden during the regular season and it's hard to ignore the way the team fought back in both Games 3 and 4 in Houston to get 'covers' in both losses. While young, I've seen nothing from the Blazers which gives me any indication that they'll quit. There can be little doubt that the Rockets are determined to end their first-round fruststrations and doing it without T-Mac will only add 'icing.' However, when has anything ever come easily for this team in recent years? Houston's 89-88 Game 4 win snapped a six-game losing streak in Game 4s, which had coincided with its 0-6 record in first-round series since 1998. This just may be the year the team advances past the first round but I don't believe that Rockets will be celebrating tonight. Rather, I expect the Blazers will send this series back to Houston with a convincing win, which will then shift all the pressure back to the Rockets. 1st Round GOY 20* Por Blazers.

My 20* AL Game of the Month is on the LA Angels at 7:05 ET. The Angels owned MLB's best record in 2008 at 100-62, going 50-31 both home and away. The Angels have struggled so far in 2009 (just 7-11), and that's understandable. Starting pitchers John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL and then in the season's first week, Rick Adenhart was tragically killed in a car accident. However, I expect the Angels to be just fine. As for the Orioles, after opening with SIX wins in their first eight games, they are 3-8 in their last 11, following a 6-4 home loss last night to the Rangers. Arguably the main problem for the Angels this year has been the terrible performance by its bullpen. LA ranks last in the majors with a 7.24 bullpen ERA, as its relievers own a 1-6 record, have saved just four of eight opportunities and have allowed opponents to bat .327. The good news here is that Joe Saunders is tonight's starting pitcher and not much should be required of the team's relief staff. LA didn't play on Monday plus Weaver went seven innings on Sunday, meaning the shaky bullpen is at least, well-rested. Now back to Saunders, who is one of my favorites. Here's a guy who was shuttled in and out of LA's rotation in 2006 and 2007, while constantly being called up from the minors and then sent down. However, he thrived in that role, going 15-8 (4.55 ERA) over those two seasons, with the Angels going 21-10 in his 31 starts. With injuries to Colon and Lackey at the beginning of last year, Saunders was given a regular spot in LA's rotation and DELIVERED! He went 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 31 starts, as the Angels went 23-8 (plus-$1,268) in those games, the 6th-best moneyline mark of any pitcher in MLB. Throw in his team's win in his Game 3 start of the ALDS at Fenway and the Angels went 12-4 in Saunders' home starts, as well as 12-4 in his road starts in 2009. John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL, so Saunders was actually LA's Opening Day starter in 2009, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings (allowed just three hits) in a 3-0 win over the A's. Saunders went five innings in last Wednesday's game against the Tigers, allowing five ERs on seven hits while walking two and striking out one. He received a no decision for his efforts, as the game ended 12-10 in favor of the Tigers. However, Saunders came into Wednesday's game with a 2.18 ERA, so obviously, he was not on his game against the Tigers. Saunders has made five career starts vs the Orioles and despite a 4.40 ERA, is 4-0. The Angels have won all of Saunders' starts vs the Orioles, helping him out "big time" by scoring 35 runs in those games. He grew up 60 miles away from Baltimore, so this is sort of a homecoming. More good news comes LA's and Saunders' way in that Baltimore has really struggled vs left-handed starters and NOT just recently. From 2006-08, the Orioles went a pathetic 51-92 (.357) vs lefties and have opened 2009 at 1-3. Baltimore counters Saunders with Adam Eaton. Eaton used an 11-5 (4.27 ERA) 2005 season with the Padres (team was 16-6 and plus-$924 in his starts) to get a big free agent deal with the Rangers for 2006. He made just 13 starts that season, going 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA. He was 14-18 with a 4.89 ERA the last two years with the Phillies, who went 23-26 in his 49 starts. This guy is a stiff! He got 'rocked' in his first two starts this season for Baltimore (11.25 ERA) but took a four-hitter into the eighth inning to earn his first victory with the Orioles last Thursday against the White Sox (Baltimore won 6-2). He's 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA in three starts, allowing 23 hits and 12 ERs in just 15.1 innings. The Angels have dominated right-handers the last two seasons, going a combined 141-93 (.603) in 2007 and 2008. They may only be 5-7 vs righties this year but they've averaged 5.8 RPG. It's also important to note that the Baltimore bullpen is not much better than LA's, owning a 6.36 ERA. Plus, unlike LA's bullpen which is rested, Baltimore relievers are not. The Orioles have not had a starter last past the fifth inning in their last three games, forcing the bullpen to work 13.2 innings. The Angels 'love' to hit against righties and Eaton is "just what the doctor ordered." AL Game of the Month 20* LA Angels.

My Weekly Wipeout winner is on the StL Cards at 7:10 ET. The Cards own MLB's best record (14-6), as well as its best moneyline mark (plus-$675), which is a nice daily double. Joel Pineiro (4-0, 3.76) allowed two runs in 6.2 innings without walking a batter last night, as the Cards beat the Braves 3-2.The Braves opened 2009 at 5-1 but are now 9-10, after losing NINE of their last 13 games. Atlanta started 3-0 here at home but has now dropped four straight home games. It hasn't helped the team's psyche that in FOUR of seven home games this year, fewer than 20,00 fans have shown up at Turner Field. Kyle Lohse (3-0, 2.42 ERA) will try to join Pineiro at 4-0. Lohse was 27-19 back in 2002 and 2003 with the Twins but was a sub-500 pitcher over the next four years. However, he had a breakout season in 2008, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA (team was not quite as good as he was, going 18-15 in his starts). Lohse has pitched well to open 2009, although he injured his right knee while fielding a grounder during last Thursday's 12-8 win over the Mets (Lohse allowed eight hits in five innings but just two runs, one earned). He had an MRI and he has improved enough to make his scheduled start tonight. The Braves will counter with the left-handed Jo-Jo Reyes. Good efforts have been rare from Reyes. He was 2-2 witha 6.22 ERA in his rookie season of 2007, with the Braves going 3-7 (minus-$540) in his 10 starts. He was 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA in 23 appearances last year (22 starts), with the Braves going 7-15 (minus-$859). His first start this year didn't come until April 18 and he got 'rocked' at Pittsburgh, allowing seven hits, three walks and five ERs in five innings of a 10-0 loss. Believe it or not, Reyes has now dropped eight straight decisions dating to last June. He has a 7.82 ERA during the slide with opponents hitting .337 against him and the Braves going 1-13 in those contests (can't make this stuff up!). If all this wasn't enough, the Braves placed the newly acquired Garrett Anderson on the 15-day DL on 4/20 (quad) and then placed All Star catcher Brian McCann on the 15-day DL on 4/23 (eye). Weekly Wipeout Winner 15* StL Cards.

Good Luck...Larry