4-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

Ness




My 15* play is on the Por Blazers at 9:35 ET. Both the Nuggets and Rockets entered this year's playoffs trying to end long postseason droughts. Both franchises had lost six consecutive first round series, Denver last advancing past the first round back in 1994, while Houston hadn't seen the second round since 1997. The Nuggets had little trouble dispatching the Hornets in this year's first round, clinching the series 4-1 last night, with an easy 107-86 victory. Does that mean it's Houston's turn (time) tonight? I wouldn't jump to any conclusions. The Nuggets are a much better team that the Rockets plus more importantly, the Blazers are a WAY better team than the Hornets, who were just awful in their series with Denver. The Rockets had a chance to close this series out Tuesday night but Houston trailed until the fourth quarter, when Yao Ming and Von Wafer made consecutive FGs to put the Rockets ahead 68-64. The Blazers tied it at 68, before extending the lead to 77-68 with 5:21 to go. Aaron Brooks made a hoop to close the Rockets to within 80-75 but that was as close as Houston would come. Roy took an IV before the game but scored 25 for the Blazers, while Aldridge had 25 as well, plus seven rebounds. The Rockets' Yao (15.6-10.8) has given Przybilla and Oden fits and Portland's concerns over the center has allowed Scola to lead Houston in scoring in this series (17.6-7.2). Brooks (15.8-4.8 APG), Artest (13.4-3.6-4.8) and Wafer (10.6) join Scola and Yao in double figures, with Battier (8.8-5.4) just missing out. The Rockets won 18 of their final 20 home games in the regular season (14-2 after the break) and with wins in Games 3 and 4 of this series, take an eight-game home winning streak into this game. The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center in Houston and the franchise has lost 10 of its last 11 road playoff games, overall. Also, history is squarely against the Blazers in trying to come back in this series, as they're trying to become just the NINTH team in NBA history (out of 185) to rally from a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game playoff series. However, how can one trust the Rockets? They failed to cover either of their Game 3 or 4 wins here at home in this series and while the team's Game 4 win broke a six-game losing streak in Game 4s for the franchise, that win came by just ONE point! The Rockets have lost Game 6s in each of the last two seasons (both to Utah) and while the Jazz have a much better recent playoff history than this current Blazer team, I like the make up of Portland. The team showed no "quit" in each of the first two games of this series played in Houston and responded like vets, in its Game 5 win at home two nights ago. I want the points. 15* Por Blazers.

My PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. The D'backs won the NL West in 2007 by one game with a 90-72 mark. However, last year's 82-80 mark left the team two games behind the Dodgers in the division, keeping the D'backs home for the postseason. Arizona's spring training facility is only hours outside of Phoenix and with the team playing 18 of its first 21 games in Chase Field (15 against NL West foes), the D'backs had hopes of getting off to a fast start (FYI...Arizona is just the fourth club since 1900 to play that many home games in the month of April!). The D'backs had gone 98-64 (.605) at home in 2007 and 2008, so there was little reason for expectations NOT to be high for a quick start. As the say goes, "the best laid plans...." The D'backs begin an eight-game road trip Thursday night in Milwaukee, just 9-12 on the season, after posting a very disappointing 8-10 home mark. Despite a 10-0 win on Wednesday afternoon vs the Cubs (D'backs had 10 hits and managed 10 walks, as well), the D'backs are batting a ML-low .229 and with 83 runs scored (3.95 per game), they are among MLB's lowest scoring teams as well. The Brewers had gone 99-63 (.611) during the 2006 and 2007 seasons in Miller Park but the team's road woes (59-103, .364) during that same two-year span, kept them a sub-.500 team. However, the Brewers went 41-40 on the road last year (49-32 at home), which allowed them to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. Both Sabathia and Sheets are no longer with the team plus Milwaukee opened the season not hitting the ball very well. It led to a 4-9 start but the Brewers have won seven of eight since, including a three-game home sweep of the previously surging Pirates. The starting pitchers for tonight are Max Scherzer for the D'backs and Jeff Suppan for the Brewers. Scherzer appeared in 16 games last year (seven starts), posting a 3.05 ERA but an 0-4 record. He had a 2.68 ERA in his seven starts but the team went 0-7. He's made three starts this year, going 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA. The team did break through with a win in his first outing but that only means that Arizona has been able to post a win in ONE of his 10 career starts. Jeff Suppan's story is much different. He began his career way back in 1995 with the Red Sox. He moved to Arizona, then KC and Pittsburgh, before coming back to Boston at the end of 2003. He didn't do well in that return and he signed with St Louis for the 2004 season. Suppan posted records of 16-9 (4.16) in 2004 and 16-10 (3.57) in '05, then fell off some in 2006 (12-7, 4.12). However, he pitched well in the postseason that season, as the Cards surprised everyone by winning the World Series. He used that to sign a big free agent deal with Milwaukee and he's gone 12-12 (4.62) and 10-10 (4.96) the last two seasons. Some may call him a disappointment but let me note that his 34 starts in 2007 and 31 last year, gave him 10 straight seasons with 30-plus starts. How many starting pitchers can make that claim, these days? He opened the year with two poor efforts but his ERA in his last two stats is 3.75. Arizona's hitting woes in 2009 are well documented (see above) plus let me note in the team's lone road series this year (April 17-19 in San Francisco), the D'backs played three consecutive 2-0 games with the Giants (losing twice). Doing the math, that means the D'backs scored a grand total of just two runs in the three games (0.67 per) and a check of the boxscores show the team went a collective 11-for-87, or .126! PERFECT STORM 20* Mil Brewers.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie

At 7:35 pm, our 5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year is on the Philly 76ers minus the points over Orlando, as Philly falls into 26-1, 32-6-3, and 52-13 ATS Systems of mine. But even though the Sixers' opponents' jerseys will say "Magic" on them, this won't be the Orlando team that won 59 games this year. Already missing Jameer Nelson, who suffered a season-ending injury a few months back, Orlando now will have to play without Courtney Lee and Dwight Howard. Lee was injured in Game 5, and Howard was suspended by the league for elbowing Samuel Dalembert, Philly's center. Without those players in uniform, this Magic squad will be a shell of its former self tonight. In sports, teams often perform well without key players. Sometimes, others step up their game, or their opponents might succumb to complaceny, and not give their best efforts. However, we KNOW that won't be the case tonight with the Sixers. One can rest assured that Philly won't "take it easy" on Orlando just because Howard will be in street clothes -- not with Philly's post-season life on the line. The 76ers have covered four of their first five vs. Orlando in these playoffs and, as I mentioned, fall into several of my best systems tonight. Let's take a quick look at our 32-6-3 ATS angle. Here, what we want to do is play on any .401 (or better) home favorite of more than 4 points off a 9-point (or worse) road loss, if it's matched up against a .679 (or better) foe off a 9-point (or better) home win. And if our foe is off back-to-back wins, then our 32-6-3 angle zooms to 25-1 SU and 21-2-3 ATS. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big 5* play in NBA action on Thursday, or my Baseball Winners. And, of course, I'll also have my annual Kentucky Derby report for Saturday's big race.


At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Portland. Well, it looks like Tracy McGrady FINALLY will advance to the 2nd round of the Playoffs. Of course, the Rockets are doing it all with an injured McGrady in street clothes, so I'm sure his detractors are enjoying THAT. Without McGrady, the Rockets have actually played better this season. One reason is Luis Scola. The veteran Argentine has played great for Houston the entire season, and is leading the team in scoring in the Playoffs at 17.6 ppg. Indeed, the biggest difference between these two teams is the experience of Houston's key players. Ron Artest, Yao Ming and Scola have been through basketball wars in their careers (both in the NBA and in International play), while Portland's best players (Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden) are babies by comparison. Houston has dominated Portland at the Toyota Center, with wins in 12 of 13 games, and the Rockets have won eight straight at home, overall. Finally, Houston falls into some of my best Playoff systems, with records of 52-13, 116-68, and 77-39 ATS. Take the Rockets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year tonight or my annual Kentucky Derby report for Saturday's big race, as we look to continue our historical success in the Triple Crown races.


At 2:10pm our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals 'over' the total. Perhaps it was appropriate that the Jays took a big gamble when they brought up lefthander Brian Burres from the minors to replace injured starter Ricky Romero, since he was coming from the AAA team which happens to now be based in Las Vegas, however this appears to be a gamble that is not going to pay off for Toronto. Burres got beat up about as much as any lefthander could in his first start of '09 last Saturday when the White Sox battered him for six earned runs in just over four innings of work. We used the White Sox as our first 5* of the season in that game, as we knew Burres was in over his head. He clearly isn't ready to be back in the Majors (his numbers in Las Vegas weren't very good either), but the Jays don't have a lot of options right now. KC will hand the ball to Kyle Davies, and this is a great opportunity for the former top prospect to right himself after a very shaky outing of his own last Saturday against the Tigers. The only good news to come out of that start was that Davies cut his walks down from five (in his start previous to that) to just two, but everything else about his appearance was ugly. Of additional concern going into this game is the fact that of Davies' four starts, the two that have been poor (including the one last Saturday) were at home in Kauffman Stadium, the site of this afternoon's contest. The over is 10-3 in Toronto's last thirteen road games, and this one should be no different. Major League Total of the Week on the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my two 5* NBA plays today, or my Kentucky Derby report for Saturday's big race.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

7* KC

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

Getaway Day ANNIHILATOR (EARLY)

I'm playing on the Royals. It's true that the Jays, who lost 11-3 yesterday, have been great at "bouncing back." In fact, they haven't lost consecutive games yet this season. However, all good things must come to an end. That said, I expect the Jays to suffer their first "losing streak" of the season this afternoon.

Davies goes for the Royals and his overall numbers admittedly aren't all that impressive. However, that was the result of a single bad start in his last outing, which saw him allow seven runs. That hasn't been "normal" though and I expect him to bounce back with a much better effort this afternoon. Prior to that, Davies had a very solid 2.89 ERA, having allowed three earned runs or less in all three previous starts.

Looking back to last season and we find the Davies has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his last 18 starts and that his last start was the only one of those 18 games in which he allowed more than four earned runs. He'll have the advantage of starting against the Jays for the first time.

Burres goes for the Jays and that's not an overly pleasant thought for Toronto fans. You may recall that Burres, 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts vs. KC, went 13-18 with an ugly 5.88 ERA with Baltimore the past few years. I played against Burres in his last start (his first) noting that he was only in the rotation due to injuries to others. The Jays' new southpaw responded by getting rocked for six runs and seven hits (four walks, too) in just 4 1/3 innings. The Jays lost that game by a score of 10-2.

The Royals have been profitable as home favorites in this range the past few seasons. Look for Davies to get the better of Burres and for the Jays to suffer their first losing series of the season. *7 Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman-----------------Chi Bulls
Millionaire-----------------Chi Cubs
No Limit-------------------Houston Rockets

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

10-Dime Portland Trail Blazers

When you're in a do-or-die situation, like the Blazers are tonight, you tend to play your absolute best. I know youth has been a concern in this series, but the fact remains this is a Blazers team that is well-coached, that has scorers, that has paint presence and that quietly remained one of the top Western Conference teams throughout the 2008-09 campaign.

Houston could have wrapped this thing up the other night, in Game 5, especially when the Rockets opened the fourth quarter with a 7-0 run and had their largest lead of the game, 68-64. But showing plenty of poise, the Trail Blazers stared adversity - and elimination - in the face and emerged victorious after Houston's offense crumbled.

Portland's composure in that final period stemmed from its ability and willingness to attack gaps in Houston's defense, and that's the type of confidence it has no choice but to display if it wants to stave off elimination once again, and take this series back home for Game 7. The Blazers' aggressive ways created fouls and opened up their deadly shooters from the perimeter.

If Portland can do that in the first quarter tonight, it will silence the crowd and immediately steal the momentum for the game. That's what we want, as we're going to see both teams win two quarters apiece. Then it comes down to the final few minutes, and which team can play the best defense. I want the dog in this do-or-die contest.


Free pick - Chicago Bulls

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' #1 PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE MONTH!!
Cost: Free Pick ($50) Ungraded
Handicapper: Ben Burns
League: NBA
Event: Orlando Magic vs Philadelphia 76ers on 04/30/2009 at 4:35PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: I'm playing on Orlando and Philadelphia to finish OVER the total. I won with the Magic in Game 4 and before learning of the Dwight Howard suspension, my initial lean had been to back them again. While I do still think the Magic (also without Lee) have a chance, I'm not willing to play them without Howard. However, I do feel that his absence has created excellent value with the total. Since the first game finished above the total, we've seen four straight games finish 'under' the number in this series. I successfully played on last Thursday's game (Game 2) to finish below the number. However, that over/under number was in the 190s. Tonight's is significantly lower, the lowest of the series. Yes, Howard leads the Magic in scoring. However, he was also the league's best defensive player. Without his huge shot-clocking presence, I expect the 76'ers, who managed only 78 and 84 points the last two games, to have significantly more confidence on the offensive end and won't be surprised if they reach triple-digits for the first time in the series. As Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala noted of Howard: "I just know when I'm going to the basket, he's always there." Note that the 76'ers are still averaging better than 97 per game here at home. If the 76'ers score more points, as I expect them to do, that will force the Magic to try and keep pace. They've still got weapons on the offensive end of the floor. We saw Rashard Lewis come to life in the last game, scoring a series high 24 points. Turkoglu admittedly hasn't been at his best but he's more than capable (16.8 ppg this season, 19.5 last year) and with Howard out, I expect him to elevate his game. Redick will get a lot more time without Lee. He hasn't lived up to the hype that followed him out of college, but he's still a terrific shooter, capable of heating up from beyond the arc. Redick was quoted as saying: "I've got be aggressive now. They played off Courtney. It seems like they're still not really guarding the point guard or the two guard." Meanwhile, Alston should be able to be counted on for double-digits. He scored 14 last game, which is exactly his average for the season. The Magic have seen the OVER go 11-6-1 this season after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game. During the same stretch, the 76'ers have seen the OVER go 11-6-2 when coming off a double-digit loss. I expect a faster tempo and look for that to lead to the final combined score finishing above the total. *Playoff TOM.