Mr. IWS
05-02-2009, 07:39 AM
Big Al's Derby
#6 Friesan Fire
wager across the board,win,place,show
At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the #6 horse, Friesan Fire, and we recommend an "across the board" wager -- that is, three separate wagers on him to Win, Place and Show. The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is probably being talked about as much for who ISN'T here as who will be running. Notably absent from the 2009 version of the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports" is the best 2-Year-Old of 2008, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman, as well as the winner of the Florida Derby, Quality Road, and a superstar filly named Rachel Alexandra, who has opted for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. The latter is skipping the Derby even though many experts think that she may well be the best 3-year-old in the world (of any sex), and we can still remember that it was only one year ago that many people felt the same way about a filly named Eight Belles. But that horse met with a tragic end in the Derby when she broke both ankles after finishing second, and she had to be euthanized on the track. Larry Jones was the trainer of Eight Belles, and he is giving himself one final chance in 2009 to win the Derby with a colt named Friesan Fire. The Kentucky-based Jones, who does most of his racing out of the mid-Atlantic, has decided that he will be ending his horse operation, or at least as we have come to know it, after this season, and he will attempt to go out with a bang on the back of this impressive 3-year-old colt by AP Indy. Jones doesn't want to be best remembered for the Eight Belles tragedy -- after all, he did finish second to Street Sense in 2007 with a colt named Hard Spun -- so he's giving it one last shot with Friesan Fire and regular rider Gabriel Saez. Jones and Friesan Fire have one thing that the ill-fated Eight Belles and Hard Spun did not have: a relatively easy field with which to contend. Friesan Fire has done absolutely nothing wrong, having won three races in a row -- all graded stakes, and all on natural dirt -- and each one an improvement over the last. His most recent victory was the impressive seven-length runaway over a tough field in the Louisiana Derby. The only problem with that performance is that it came seven weeks ago and that is what most of his detractors have pointed to. But a 49-day layoff before the Derby is not a problem if the trainer knows how to condition his horse up to the first Saturday in May, and Jones has shown that he absolutely knows how to do this. He is following the same regimen with Friesan Fire that he undertook with Hard Spun and Eight Belles, and in this version of the Run for the Roses there is definitely no Street Sense or Big Brown to contend with at Churchill Downs. Friesan Fire was selected to start from the 6 hole, and this would appear to be a perfect spot for this stalking type of runner. He has enough tactical speed to stay close to the early pace (and there isn't a ton of early foot in this field), but also shows an explosive kick that should serve him well turning for home. He has been assigned morning line odds of 5-1, but with the layoff and the presence of horses trained by Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, and a few other big-name conditioners, don't be surprised if Friesan Fire floats up to 8-1 by post time. Regardless, this is one of the better bargains we've seen in a Derby, and the best since Giacomo won it at 50-1 odds. Take Friesan Fire "across the board." Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
#6 Friesan Fire
wager across the board,win,place,show
At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the #6 horse, Friesan Fire, and we recommend an "across the board" wager -- that is, three separate wagers on him to Win, Place and Show. The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is probably being talked about as much for who ISN'T here as who will be running. Notably absent from the 2009 version of the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports" is the best 2-Year-Old of 2008, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman, as well as the winner of the Florida Derby, Quality Road, and a superstar filly named Rachel Alexandra, who has opted for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. The latter is skipping the Derby even though many experts think that she may well be the best 3-year-old in the world (of any sex), and we can still remember that it was only one year ago that many people felt the same way about a filly named Eight Belles. But that horse met with a tragic end in the Derby when she broke both ankles after finishing second, and she had to be euthanized on the track. Larry Jones was the trainer of Eight Belles, and he is giving himself one final chance in 2009 to win the Derby with a colt named Friesan Fire. The Kentucky-based Jones, who does most of his racing out of the mid-Atlantic, has decided that he will be ending his horse operation, or at least as we have come to know it, after this season, and he will attempt to go out with a bang on the back of this impressive 3-year-old colt by AP Indy. Jones doesn't want to be best remembered for the Eight Belles tragedy -- after all, he did finish second to Street Sense in 2007 with a colt named Hard Spun -- so he's giving it one last shot with Friesan Fire and regular rider Gabriel Saez. Jones and Friesan Fire have one thing that the ill-fated Eight Belles and Hard Spun did not have: a relatively easy field with which to contend. Friesan Fire has done absolutely nothing wrong, having won three races in a row -- all graded stakes, and all on natural dirt -- and each one an improvement over the last. His most recent victory was the impressive seven-length runaway over a tough field in the Louisiana Derby. The only problem with that performance is that it came seven weeks ago and that is what most of his detractors have pointed to. But a 49-day layoff before the Derby is not a problem if the trainer knows how to condition his horse up to the first Saturday in May, and Jones has shown that he absolutely knows how to do this. He is following the same regimen with Friesan Fire that he undertook with Hard Spun and Eight Belles, and in this version of the Run for the Roses there is definitely no Street Sense or Big Brown to contend with at Churchill Downs. Friesan Fire was selected to start from the 6 hole, and this would appear to be a perfect spot for this stalking type of runner. He has enough tactical speed to stay close to the early pace (and there isn't a ton of early foot in this field), but also shows an explosive kick that should serve him well turning for home. He has been assigned morning line odds of 5-1, but with the layoff and the presence of horses trained by Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, and a few other big-name conditioners, don't be surprised if Friesan Fire floats up to 8-1 by post time. Regardless, this is one of the better bargains we've seen in a Derby, and the best since Giacomo won it at 50-1 odds. Take Friesan Fire "across the board." Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.