5-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

10* Hawks

9* Giants
7* Drays

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al Mcmordie

At 2:20pm our member selection is on the Florida Marlins and Chicago Cubs 'under' the total. Marlins ace Ricky Nolasco is glad that April is over and May is here so he can start anew. Nolasco had a month that he would rather forget in April, going 1-2 with a 6.92 ERA in five starts since being annointed this season as the opening day starter. Not only will Nolasco be looking at his sixth start as a chance to right himself with the beginning of a new month, but it is against the team through whose system he first came up with (Nolasco was traded from the Cubs minor league system to Florida in the Juan Pierre deal in 2005). It's been almost three years, but perhaps a start against Chicago is just what Nolasco needs as in his only other start against them (in May 2006), Nolasco threw seven strong innings, surrendering only one earned run. Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano has had back-to-back stellar starts with almost identical lines (three earned runs in seven innings) after stumbling badly against the Cardinals three starts back on April 17. Unlike Nolasco, Zambrano has had a very strong April and appears to be getting stronger, and his ERA is only high because of that one bad start against St. Louis. In this game at home, Zambrano will go for career win number 99 against a team that he has performed very well against in the past. Take the 'under'.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NBA

Basketball (NBA)

ATLANTA

Game: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 5/3/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm laying the points with ATLANTA. I've played on the Hawks in all three of their victories in this series while avoiding them in all three of their losses. With everything on the line, I feel that this will prove to be another excellent spot to back them. It's true that Dwayne Wade is among the best offensive players in the world. However, when playing away from Miami, his supporting cast often leaves a lot to be desired. Wade had 29 points in the last game here at Atlanta and the Heat still lost by 15. Additionally, note that the Heat are an awful 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS the last 18 times that they were coming off a double-digit victory. Overall, home teams are 4-2 SU/ATS in this series, each team going 2-1 SU/ATS on its homecourt. The Hawks are loaded with quality talent and have three players (Bibby, Johnson, Smith) all averaging greater than 15 points per game. I believe that they're the more "complete" team. They've been excellent at home the last few seasons and were 31-10 here in the regular season. They defeated the Celtics in all three games here last postseason, before losing in Game 7 at Boston. I expect them to have learned from that experience and for it to pay dividends here. The Hawks are 27-17-1 ATS the last 45 times that they were coming off a game in which they scored 85 points points or less. They average 98.5 points per game on this floor and allow 92.6. I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, on both ends of the floor. None of the games in the series have been close with the SU winner covering the spread in each. I expect that trend to continue with Atlanta being the team which emerges victorious. *Opening Rd GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Burns MLB



Baseball (MLB)

TAMPA BAY

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Time: 5/3/2009 1:35:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays Reason: I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. While they managed to win yesterday's game, wins at Tropicana Field have been few and far between for the Red Sox of late. Even with that victory, they're still just 4-13 their last 17 visits here, including 1-8 here last regular season. While he doesn't have great career stats vs. Boston, Shields was dominant in last season's regular season home starts against the Red Sox. Of course, that's not surprising given that he was 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 home starts last year. In two games here during the reg. season, he held the Sox to just two runs through 15 1/3 innings, striking out 12 while walking only two. Even though the Red Sox beat him here during the postseason, Shields still didn't pitch badly. In fact, he's allowed three earned runs or less in six straight home starts vs. Boston. This is just Shields' second home start this season. He won his first but wasnt' as sharp as he would have liked. He should be highly motivated to pick up where he left off last season, while looking to avenge a loss at Fenway from a few weeks ago. In his recent starts against Boston, Shields has been opposed by the likes of Beckett (twice in a row) and Matsuzaka. Not surprisingly, the Rays haven't been able to provide him with much run support in those games. However, today Shields will be opposed by struggling Brad Penny. Penny gave up seven runs (4 earned) in just 2 2/3 innings last time out. That gives him a terrible 10.80 ERA and 2.399 WHIP his last three stats. I expect Shields to get the better of Penny and look for the Rays to come away with the important victory. *Personal Favorite
SAN FRANCISCO

Game: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Game Time: 5/3/2009 4:05:00 PM Prediction: San Francisco Giants Reason: I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. Barry Zito's been among the league's most disappointing pitchers in recent seasons. The Giants had really high hopes for him and paid him big money. Last year, the former Oakland star got off to a terrible start and finished the season with a 10-17 record and an ugly 5.15 ERA. Zito, who was once 23-5, is better than that though and he's been showing signs that he's going to be better this year, at least when he pitches here at home. Last time out, Zito held the Dodgers to just five hits and three runs through 6 1/3 innings. He didn't receive the decision but the Giants earned the 5-4 win. He was even better in his previous start. In that outing, which was also here at home, he tossed seven shutout innings, limiting the Padres to six hits. Note that he had 5 K's and 0 walks. Unfortunately, for Zito, he didn't get any run support. The Giants won 1-0 but once again, he didn't get the decision. Either way, that gives him an impressive 2.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home, averaging better than six innings per start. Zito should finally get some run support this afternoon, as he'll be matched up against struggling Jason Hammel. Hammel, who struggled in the bullpen, has an awful 12.00 ERA and 3.33 WHIP. In his lone start, he gave up seven hits, three walks and five runs (4 earned) in just three innings. Hammel will be supported by a Colorado bullpen which entered the series with an ugly 5.43 ERA, including 5.44 on the road. That doesn't compare favorably to San Francisco's bullpen which entered the series with a 3.44 ERA at home. Zito has pitched very well vs. the Rockies over his career, posting a 2.57 ERA in seven starts against them. His team won five of those game. In his last three starts vs. the Rockies, he allowed just five earned runs through 23 innings, which is a 1.96 ERA. Look for the veteran southpaw, highly anxious to earn his first victory of the season, to deliver a highly motivated effort as the Giants grab the rubber game and win their fifth consecutive series. *NL GOW

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

CC---------------------Hawks
Mill--------------------Seattle
Insiders--------------St louis

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Pitching Mismatch of the Month-MLB (22-11 run the L15 days)
My 15* Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The Giants won the opener of this three-game series with the Rockies 3-2 on Friday but Colorado returned the favor Saturday afternoon, winning 5-1 (do the Giants EVER win with Cain on the mound?). The teams play the "rubber game" of the series on Sunday afternoon, with Barry Zito of the Giants looking for his initial win of 2009 and Jason Hammel going for the Rockies. I'll start with Hammel. He made 73 appearances (28 starts) with Tampa Bay from 2006-08, going 7-15 with a 6.12 ERA. He was acquired in a trade with Tampa on April 5 and will make his second consecutive start for the Rockies, after coming out of the bullpen in his first three appearances of 2009. He hardly inspired any confidence this past Monday in a home game with the Padres. Hammel allowed four ERs and seven hits while walking three in just three innings of a 12-7 loss. As for Zito, he's earned the tag of being one of the biggest free agent busts in recent memory. However, the Giants may just have finally figured out a way to get their money's worth from Zito. Zito was a disaster this season in his first two starts, allowing up 10 runs in nine innings. The Giants then turned to Pablo Sandoval to catch Zito in his third start of '09 (4/22 vs the Padres). Note that Sandoval caught Zito's final eight starts last year, when the left-hander went 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA (team was 6-2). He pitched seven scoreless innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 (10 inn) San Francisco win in that game. Zito then took a shutout into the seventh inning this past Monday against the Dodgers but was left with a no-decision. He allowed three runs on five hits and three walks in 6.1 innings, striking out two. The Giants haven't totally committed to making Sandoval Zito's personal catcher, but what are they waiting for? He will be behind the plate today and let's note that Zito's had excellent efforts vs the Rockies. He's 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in seven starts (teams are 5-2), allowing only 35 hits in 49 innings. Let's also remember that when the Rockies made their World Series run in 2007, they were 39-42 on the road, marking the franchise's best road record this decade. However, the Rockies are a pathetic 276-453 away from Coors Field since 2000, for a winning percentage (if you will pardon the pun) of .379. That does NOT include the team's 5-8 start away from Coors this year. The Giants may be just 11-11 overall but they are 9-4 at home, with the team's pitching staff holding opponents to only 2.77 RPG in the process. I haven't said this very often with Zito on the mound but facing Hammel, he does give the Giants a substantial pitching edge. Pitching Mismatch of the Month 15* SF Giants.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Daytime Dominator-MLB (22-11 run the L15 days)-Early
My 15* Daytime Dominator is on the TB Rays at 1:35 ET. The Rays opened a four-game home series with Boston on Thursday, having lost 11 of their previous 15 games. As for the Red Sox, they entered the series having won 12 of their previous 13 games, while averaging 7.5 RPG. Tampa won the first two games of the series by the combined scores of 19-2 but Boston scored six times in the first three innings of Saturday night's game and held on for a 10-6 victory. The Red Sox will now try and salvage a split of the four-games series at Tropicana Field, where they went 1-8 during last year's regular season. It should be noted that Boston wasn't the only team to have trouble at Tampa, as the Rays went 57-24 at home last year, easily winning more money than any team in MLB (plus-$2,701). The Rays are just 4-6 at home to open 2009 but with Shields on the mound, I like their chances. He came into his own in 2007, going 12-8 with a 3.85 ERA on a team which went just 66-96. Then last year, he went 14-8 with a 3.86 ERA. Including the postseason, Shields posted a 2.64 ERA in 21 home starts, as the Rays went 16-5. He's only made one home start this year (he did not pitch well although the Rays won) but the team has too like the way he's pitched away from home in 2009, posting a 3.00 ERA in four outings (team is a disappointing 1-3). Opposing Shields will be Brad Penny, whose first season in the AL is not going all that smoothly. He has had two solid starts this season against the Angels and Twins but he's also had two really, really bad starts against the Orioles and the Indians. Penny gave up seven runs (four earned) in just 2.2 innings of a 9-8 loss to Cleveland this past Tuesday, which snapped Boston's 11-game winning streak. Stick with the home team, behind Shields. Daytime Dominator 15* TB Rays.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (22-11 run the L15 days)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 2:05 ET. The D'backs were able to open the 2009 season by playing 18 of their first 21 games at home. Considering Arizona had gone a combined 98-64 (.605) at home in 2007 and 2008, the D'backs had reason to be optimistic they would start strong. However, that didn't happen, as Arizona went a very disappointing 8-10 at home and took a 9-12 overall mark into Thursday's game at Milwaukee, which began an eight-game road trip. Arizona lost on Thursday night 4-1, giving them a 1-3 road start to begin the 2009 season, as the D'backs were averaging a pathetic .075 RPG in those four road games, while compiling a .153 team batting average (18-of-118). Meanwhile, Thursday's win was Milwaukee's EIGHTH in its last nine, after getting off to a 4-9 start in '09. However, the D'backs have won the last two nights, due mostly to some solid pitching and Milwaukee's 'cold' bats. Arizona hasn't exactly "torn the cover off the ball," hitting .232 and scoring nine runs on Friday and Saturday. However, the Brewers have batted a pathetic .212 these last two games, while scoring just three runs. Milwaukee will now look to salvage a split of the four-game series on Sunday, with Dave Bush facing Yusmeiro Petit. Petit is 0-2 with an 8.62 ERA in 2009, after struggling through 3.2 innings on Tuesday in an 11-3 loss to the Cubs. He gave up seven ERs on eight hits with three walks and two strikeouts. Petit was a top pitching prospect at one point (he began his career with Florida back in 2006) but he's now really nothing more than long reliever and spot starter for the D'backs. He's starting here, only because Brandon Webb is injured. The Brewers had gone 99-63 (.611) during the 2006 and 2007 seasons in Miller Park but the team's road woes (59-103, .364) during that same two-year span, kept them a sub-.500 team. However, the Brewers went 41-40 on the road last year (49-32 at home), which allowed them to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. No pitcher on the team's staff has better mirrored the Milwaukee's home/away dichotomy these last three seasons, than Sunday's starting pitcher. Dave Bush posted a 33-31 record (4.57 ERA) from 2006 through 2008, with the Brewers going 46-47 in his 93 starts. However, note the home and away breakdowns. The Brewers were just 14-32 (5.58 ERA) in his road starts but 32-15 in his home outings (3.69 ERA). Bush has actually pitched better on the road to open 2009, with a 2.63 road ERA, compared to his 5.56 home ERA (two starts both home and away). However, his three-year mark is what I'm focusing on here. The D'backs still own MLB's lowest team batting average (.229) and I'm backing the home-loving Bush in this one. Weekend Wipeout Winner Mil Brewers.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Game 1 Showdown-NBA (Mavs/Nuggets)
My 15* play is on the Den Nuggets at 3:35 ET. The Nuggets fought hard all year to gain home court advantage in the early rounds (something they haven't had in 'forever!') and actually didn't clinch the Northwest Division (as well as the West's No. 2 seed) until the final day of the regular season. As for the Mavs, they had all sort of problems to open the season, starting 2-7 (0-4 at home). However, by beating the Rockets on the final day of the regular season, the Mavs' late-season surge moved them from the No. 8 seed (and almost certain elimination by the Lakers) to the No. 6 seed and a date with the Ginobili-less Spurs. The team's final regular season victory was win No. 50 of the season, the NINTH straight time the franchise had accomplished that. The Mavs eliminated the struggling Spurs 4-1 and will now meet the red-hot Nuggets, who dispatched the Hornets in five games, as well. The Nuggets were very impressive in the first round (won their four games by an average score of 112.3-to-81.5, while losing Game 3 only 95-93), ending a run of six straight opening round losses, which began back in 1995. Anthony (24.0-6.0-5.2) has been the team's leading scorer but Billups (22.6-4.0-7.4) has been the real "difference-maker." Also of note, has been the team's improved defense and all-around intensity, which has been missing in years past. This is the healthiest power forward Kenyon Martin's been in years, Nene has overcome his health issues to play great as an undersized center while Andersen (his off-the-court problems a thing of the past) has developed into a "cult hero" as well as a wonderful player off the bench. The Mavs are led by Nowitzkiand Howard up front plus the veteran PG Kidd and sixth man of the year Terry, in the backcourt. However, Nowitzki's scoring was down vs San Antonio, averaging just 19.2 PPG in that series, after averaging 25.9 PPG during the regular season. He ended the regular season with 20 points or more in each of his final 25 games but through the first four games with the Spurs, Nowitzki was shooting just 44.0 percent, including 0-of-7 on three-pointers. He 'exploded' in Game 5 for 31 points, making his lone three-point FG of the series. As for Terry, he shot just 34.7 percent through the first four games (7-of-21 on threes), before likewise playing well in Game 5 (19 points on 7-of-14 shooting). The Mavs didn't need their "A-Game" vs the Spurs but will vs the Nuggets. Dallas did make a late-season surge but the Mavs did most of their 'damage' at home. Dallas was just 4-11 SU (5-10 ATS) over its final 15 road games and went 0-for-4 vs the Nuggets during the regular season. Denver won 14 of its last 16 regular season games, before "going through the motions" of its regular season finale at Portland (had already wrapped up the division title and No. 2 seed). While the Mavs will be a tougher test than the Hornets, I don't see the Nuggets having much trouble in this first game. 15* Den Nuggets.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (Mia/Atl Game 7)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Heat at 1:05 ET. I called the Hawks out in Game 6, predicting that the team's antics in its Game 5 blowout win over the Heat was a sign of not only inexperience but overconfidence. The Hawks got was coming to them, as the Heat rolled to a 26-point win. I found it interesting that a team which owned so little playoff experience among its current members would be acting as if the Heat were somehow not worthy challengers. Atlanta paid dearly for that and now must regroup. I've said all season that I 'love ' Atlanta's backcourt duo of Johnson and Bibby (plus Murray as the team's third guard). I've also pointed out numerous times that Atlanta's young frontcourt of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Horford is the envy of most teams in the league. However, the Hawks do not have a player the caliber of Dwayne Wade (NBA's leading scorer this year, who had an MVP-like season). Wade, the MVP of the 2006 Finals, had 41 points in Game 6 and is surely capable of leading his team to a victory in this one. Isn't it odd that the franchise which last won an NBA title back in 1958 (while in St Louis) was dissing the franchise which won the 2006 NBA title, led by that year's Finals MVP? The Hawks enter this Game 7, far from healthy. Center Al Horford has a gimpy right ankle (sprained it in Game 5) and didn't play Friday. He's supposed to be back in the lineup on Sunday but who knows? As for Williams, a sprained right wrist kept him out of Games 3-5. He tried to play in Friday's Game 6 but stayed around for less than five minutes, missing his only shot. With Boston's Game 7 win over Chicago yesterday, NBA playoff history tells us that the home team has won 81 of the 99 previous Game 7s (that's 81.8 percent). However, the Hawks franchise owns a long-standing history of playoff failures. Consider this. Back in the 1969-70 season, the Hawks played their final season in the NBA's Western Conference. They won the conference that season, going 48-34. They opened the NBA playoffs (eight-team field back then) by beating the Bulls 4-1. Believe it or not, the franchise has not won a seven-game series, since! The Hawks got swept 4-0 by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals that year, the first of 14 consecutive losses in seven-game series by this franchise, including last year's loss to the Celtics in the opening round (Hawks lost at Boston in Game 7, 99-65). Of course, one could say that was then and this is now but I didn't like what I saw from this group of Atlanta players in Game 5 and the team was horrific in its 26-point loss in Game 6. This series has seen nothing but blowouts so far, as all games have been decided by 10 points or more with the average margin of victory being 20.2 PPG. However, I'm expecting a tight one here and I want the points. Las Vegas Insider Mia Heat.

Good Luck...Larry