5-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The postseason began back on April 18 but most believe these early rounds no more than the preliminaries for an "all but guaranteed" NBA Finals between LeBron and Kobe (Cavs vs Lakers). The Cavs toyed with the sad-sack Pistons, sweeping them in four games, all of which were 'covers.' The Lakers lost just once in their opening round series with the Jazz, 88-86 in Game 3 (blew a 13-point lead on a night when Kobe shot 5-of-24). While the Lakers were only 2-3 ATS in that series, note their other two ATS losses (along with that SU and ATS loss in Game 3) each came by less than a FG. LA is just fine (Utah is leaps and bounds better than Detroit at this point), although there remains a question surrounding how much Bynum (5.0-3.0) can contribute. Kobe (27.4-5.0-5.6) was typical Kobe vs Utah, while Gasol (18.4-9.0) and Odom (17.8-11.0) posted impressive numbers. Ariza (12.0-4.0-4.2), an outstanding defensive player, is starting to make real contributions on the offensive end and if that continues, LA will be tough to beat. As for the Rockets, they ended a stretch of six straight first round losses, beating the Blazers in six games. Yao (15.8-10.7) proved too much for the duo of Pryzbilla and Oden plus Portland's concern for him opened things up for the ever-improving Scola (16.2-6.7), who led the team in scoring in the first round. Artest (15.7-3.2), Brooks (15.3-4.3 APG), Wafer (9.7) and Battier (8.5-6.0) all played well, with Landry (4.8-3.0) and Lowry (4.8-3.3) rounding out the team's contributors. However, the Blazers were the youngest team of this year's 16-team playoff field and a matchup with LA is a "whole different story" for the Rockets. The Lakers won the season series 4-0, dominating the fourth quarter of each game. Kobe averaged 28.3 PPG and while Artest may THINK he's up to the challenge of "keeping Kobe in check," there's little "hard evidence" to support that claim (Battier will be asked to guard Kobe as well). The Lakers had three second-half "letdowns" against the Jazz. They let Utah 'sneak' back under the number in Game 2, blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 3 by two points and then in the Game 5 clincher, with subs in the game, saw a 22-point lead cut to six before winning 107-96. I expect a top-notch effort from LA here in Game 1, as they look to establish some dominance. Weekly Wipeout Winner LA Lakers.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

9* under magic
9* nationals
7* rockets
6* under royals
6* braves

[Mr. IWS]

Ness

My Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cards at 8:15 ET. The Cards are hitting .280 (5th-best in MLB) and averaging 5.60 RPG. The Phillies are not batting quite so high (.267) but they are outscoring the Cards, averaging 5.86 RPG. However, while the Cards lead the NL Central with a 17-8 mark (only LA's 18-8 mark is better in all of MLB), the defending champs are 12-10. It's not hard to find the reason for that. The Cards own MLB's second-best team ERA (3.57), while the Phillies come in at 5.64, ranking 27th in MLB and dead-last among NL teams. Philadelphia starters have been particularly ineffective, earning just four wins, posting a 6.71 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .329. Joe Blanton was scheduled to start against the Mets on Sunday but with the rainout, will face St Louis in the opener of this two-game series. He's 0-2 with an 8.41 ERA in four starts (team is 2-2) and hardly resembles the pitcher who did a solid job for the Philliea last year, after coming over from the A's in a mid-season trade. The Phillies won 12 of Blanton's 16 starts in 2008, including his 10-2 Game 4 win in the World Series. Kyle Lohse starts for the Cards. He was scratched from Sunday's scheduled start against the Washington Nationals because of wet weather and the game was eventually called anyway. Lohse was 27-19 back in 2002 and 2003 with the Twins but was a sub-500 pitcher over the next four years. However, he had a breakout season in 2008, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA (team was not quite as good as he was, going 18-15 in his starts). It earned him a new contract and he's 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts this year. Tonight, Lohse will be trying to open a season 4-0 for the first time in his nine-year career. Lohse is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five career starts vs the Phillies (teams are 3-2), including earning wins in BOTH of his starts against the eventual world champs, last year. The Cards are 10-3 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 5.85 RPG-to-3.92. Right now, the Cards own too many edges over the Phillies plus with this pitching matchup and in this venue (Busch), it's all Cards. Las Vegas Insider StL Cards.

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the LA Angels at 10:05 ET. A's manager Bob Geren trotted out this starting rotation at the beginning of the 2009 season. Dallas Braden was the team's Opening Day starter, followed by rookie Trevor Cahill, Dana Eveland, rookie Brett Anderson and Josh Outman. That group owned a combined 63 major league starts! However, Oakland's bullpen has been a team strength as MLB begins its fifth week. A's relievers own a 2.98 ERA, third-best in all of MLB. What the Angels wouldn't give for that kind of perormance from their bullpen. K-Rod is in New York and the Angels bullpen owns a ML-worst 7.66 ERA, going 1-8 while saving just six of 11 opportunities. OK, that's the bad news for the Angels. There are however, many excellent matchups for the Angels in this game with Oakland (first of a two-game set). I'll start with Oakland's starting pitcher tonight, rookie Brett Anderson. He's 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA in four starts this year (team is 0-4) and a blister forced him to leave his most recent start. He says it shouldn't be an issue, "It's still a little tender but it's getting better," but who knows? The Angels have only opened 4-5 vs left-handers this year but let's not forget that they were 34-16 vs lefties in 2008, including 17-8 on the road. Now to the Angels. Joe Saunders was scheduled to start yesterday in Yankee Stadium but the game was postponed. He can't be unpleased about missing the Yankees and instead, drawing the A's. As most regulars know, Saunders is a real favorite of mine. Here's a guy who was shuttled in and out of LA's rotation in 2006 and 2007, while constantly being called up from the minors and then sent down. However, he thrived in that role, going 15-8 (4.55 ERA) over those two seasons, with the Angels going 21-10 in his 31 starts. With injuries to Colon and Lackey at the beginning of last year, Saunders was given a regular spot in LA's rotation and DELIVERED! He went 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 31 starts, as the Angels went 23-8 (plus-$1,268) in those games, the 6th-best moneyline mark of any pitcher in MLB. Throw in his team's win in his Game 3 start of the ALDS at Fenway and the Angels went 12-4 in Saunders' home starts, as well as 12-4 in his road starts in 2009. John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL, so Saunders was actually LA's Opening Day starter in 2009, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings (allowed just three hits) in a 3-0 win over the A's. He's now 6-2 (3.90 ERA) all-time vs the A's in 10 career starts (Angels are 7-3). Saunders is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 2009 (five starts) and faces an Oakland team which ranks last in the AL in batting average (.239) and last in all of MLB in HRs (11).The A's did go 10-4 last year in night home games vs left-handers but averaged a pathetic 3.3 RPG. So far in 2009, the A's have not hit left-handers well at all, going 3-8 overall, when facing a left-handed starter. Oakland's lone edge in this game is in the bullpen and even that has been mitigated. The Angels didn't have to play yesterday, so at least their beleaguered bullpen is rested, while Oakland relievers (four) pitched eight innings in yesterday's 15-inning loss at Seattle. Oddsmaker's Error LA Angels.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

CC-------------------------Rockets
Mill-------------------------Braves
NL--------------------------Red Sox

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Monday ...

30 Dime - Orlando Magic to win the series

10 Dime - L.A. Lakers



Free pick - Over Magic/Celtics

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

HOUSTON

Game: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 5/4/2009 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Houston Rockets Reason: I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. The Lakers were the best team in the West again this year and they're certainly worthy of our respect. That said, they haven't been particularly good when laying points (37-40-1 ATS) this season and they're just 21-23 ATS at home. Additionally, the Lakers haven't played for a full week and they'll be taking on a Houston team which is currently playing excellent basketball. The Rockets come off a hard-fought series vs. a solid Portland team. The Rockets eventually proved to be the stronger team, "exorcising some playoff demons" at the same time. Having finally gotten out of first round and as heavy underdogs in this game and series, there's no longer any pressure. They're playing excellent defense and very sound "team basketball" overall. They last played on Thursday, giving them some time to heal some bumps and bruises, but not enough time to develop any rust. The Rockets are 10-6 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as underdogs and 14-6 their last 20 overall. They've won 16 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record and only two of their last nine games against the Lakers have resulted in losses of greater than six points. I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played with three or more day's rest between games. *Annihilator
UNDER orlando/boston

Game: Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics Game Time: 5/4/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Orlando and Boston to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Magic to finish 'over' the total in their Game 6 victory at Philadelphia. However, that was without Dwight Howard, the Defensive Player of the Year, in the lineup. Earlier in the series, with Howard patrolling the paint, I'd successfully played on the Magic to finish 'under' the number. Howard will be back in action tonight and I expect his presence to help lead to a low-scoring series opener. While I won with the Celtics in their Game 7 victory, I lost with the 'under' in the same game. That wasn't due to poor Boston defense though. Rather, it's because the officials decided to call the slightest of infractions. That led to a ton of trips to the free throw line and subsequently sent the final score above the number. The three previous Boston/Chicago games all finished in overtime but the Celtics most recent regulation game, prior to Game 7, had stayed below the total. While every year and series is different, it's interesting to note that Boston began the second round last season by playing a game which finished with a mere 148 points. That score fell below the total (181) by more than 30 points. Coincidentally, the Celtics were also coming off a 7-Game series, prior to that defensive battle. Looking at the season series between the Celts and the Magic and we find that every game had a "playoff feel." The first finished with 195 points, a 107-88 Boston victory. However, that was back in December. The three meetings in 2009 were all much lower-scoring, with none producing greater than 170 combined points. They finished with scores of 90-80, 86-79 and 84-82. Not surprisingly, all three games stayed below the total by double-digits. Looking back further and we find that eight of the past dozen meetings have dipped below the total. The Magic have seen the UNDER go 58-32-1 the past three seasons when coming off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. During that stretch, the Celts have seen the UNDER go 5-2 when listed as home favorites of three points or less. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS MLB

Baseball (MLB)

UNDER royals/whitesox

Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Game Time: 5/4/2009 8:10:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on KC and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. Greinke has been downright dominant for the Royals. After finally putting it all together at the end of last year, Greinke has begun this season by going 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP. One of his victories came against these same White Sox. Greinke allowed just three hits and struck out seven while tossing six shutout innings. The Royals won by a score of 2-0. Including that result, the UNDER is 4-1 in his five starts this season. Note that Greinke recently went 43 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. Greinke will face a Chicago lineup which is hitting just .252 vs. right-handers and averaging 4.2 runs against them. Colon's numbers are nowhere close to Greinke's. In fact, they're not very good at all. However, the veteran put it all together last time out and I expect him to build from that outing. In that start, vs. Seattle on 4/28, Colon held the Mariners to a single unearned run through seven complete innings. He gave up just four hits while striking out six and walking only one. That game finished with a score of 2-1, bringing the UNDER to 3-1 in his four starts this season. Colon is supported by a Chicago bullpen that has a combined 2.97 ERA on the road so far this season. He'll face a KC lineup which is hitting only .222 and averaging only four runs per game vs. right-handed starters. The Royals have already seen the UNDER go 7-3 this season when playing a game with a total of either eight or 8.5. I look for those numbers to improve as this evening's well-pitched affair also falls below the number. *blue chip
ATLANTA

Game: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Game Time: 5/4/2009 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Braves Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. While the Mets may have the better hitting lineup, I believe that the Braves will enjoy an advantage on the mound this evening. Maine pitched very well last time out. However, he'd been rocked in each of his previous two starts and he's got a 5.90 ERA on the road. The Mets lost both his road starts and are 1-3 in his four starts overall. Vazquez gave up five runs vs. St. Louis last time out. However, he still pitched eight complete innings (four of the runs came in the 5th inning when he had some bad breaks) and a look at his eight K's to one walk shows that he was throwing well. Bobby Cox said this of him: "He pitched great. I don't know if he can pitch any better." In fact, over his last three starts he has a very impressive 25 Ks to just three walks, recording a solid 2.70 ERA during that stretch. While he hasn't faced them in a few years, Vazquez has enjoyed a history of success against the Mets. He's got a very respectable 3.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 21 starts against them with his teams going a profitable 12-9. In his last three starts against them, he has a 2.37 ERA. On the other hand, Maine has struggled vs. Atlanta. In six starts against the Braves, he's just 2-3 with a poor 5.17 ERA and 1.596 WHIP. His most recent start vs. the Braves came here last May. Maine lasted just four innings and the Mets lost by a score of 6-1. Including that result, the Braves are 8-1 the last nine times that they hosted the Mets. Behind another quality effort from Vazquez, I look for them to continue that homefield series dominance this evening. *Divisional Mismatch
WASHINGTON

Game: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Game Time: 5/4/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Washington Nationals Reason: I'm laying the price with WASHINGTON. The Nationals aren't favored by this much very often. That said, given the pitching matchup, I believe that the price is actually quite reasonable. Lannan goes for the Nationals and he should be thrilled to get back home to Washington. Indeed, in two starts here, he has an outstanding 0.68 ERA and 0.825 WHIP, averaging nearly seven innings per start. Note that Lannan is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts vs. Houston, most recently earning a 8-3 win at Houston last May. In that game, he allowed just one earned run through six innings. Lannan will face an Astros lineup which comes in averaging just 3.4 runs and hitting .243 on the road. While Lannan hasn't gotten any run support in his previous home starts, he should get some this evening. That's because Brian Moehler goes for the visitors and he's seen better days. You may recall that I successfully played against Moehler in his last start, which was on 4/13 vs. the the Pirates. In that game, Moehler lasted a mere 2 1/3 innings, giving up five runs in that span. Moehler took the loss and the Pirates won by a score of 7-0. In his previous start, Moehler was even worse. In that outing, he allowed seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings. The Astros lost by a score of 11-6. Note that Moehler went on the disabled list after the loss from the Pirates and that this is his first start since. He would have probably preferred to have chosen a different opponent. While the Nationals (or the Expos before them) aren't typically regarded as one the league's more intimidating lineups, Moehler has had real trouble pitching against them. In fact, he's 1-4 (teams were 2-5) with an ugly 7.42 ERA in seven career starts against the Washington/Montreal franchise. His WHIP was a dreadful 2.044 through those seven games, meaning that he allowed more than two baserunners per inning. Assuming the weather holds up, I expect the Nationals to start this series off with a victory, providing Lannan with his first "W" on the season. *Personal Favorite