5-8-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

05-08-2009, 05:28 PM

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

UNDER boston/orlando

Game: Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic Game Time: 5/8/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Orlando to finish UNDER the total. Each game of a playoff series typically has a different "feel" to it. While I successfully played on the 'over' in the last game, I have a "feeling" that this one will prove to be a "defensive battle." Game 2 was an entirely different situation from this one. For starters, it was in Boston - where the Celts have been sailing 'over' the total all season. Additionally, the champs were down 1-0 and, as they did in the same situation in the Chicago series, they responded with a big offensive outburst. While Boston played with urgency, the Magic rolled over, seemingly content with already having ensured the road split. Tonight's game has shifted to Orlando though and the series is tied 1-1. Both those factors are significant. While the Celtics were a highly profitable 'over' team at Boston, they were a profitable 'under' team, when playing on the road. For the season, the UNDER is 27-17 when they've played away from home. That includes a low-scoring (for that series) Game 3 vs. the Bulls - the first road game of that series, which was also tied 1-1 at the time. Note that Orlando was also tied at 1-1 in its first round matchup with Philadelphia and that Game 3 finished below the total. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that the Celtics traveled to Orlando. This season's two regular season meetings here finished with scores of 90-80 and 84-82. The Magic have seen 12 of their last 16 home games finish below the total. In their most recent game here, they limited the 76ers to a mere 78 points. The Celtics have seen the UNDER go 14-7 the last 21 times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. That includes a 5-2 mark in that role this season. During that stretch, the Magic have seen the UNDER go 7-2 when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect those numbers to improve this evening. *annihilator
HOUSTON

Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 5/8/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Houston Rockets Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. With the series tied 1-1 and shifting to Houston, naturally, this is a critical game for both teams. The Rockets "accomplished their mission" by earning a split at LA. However, they know that will be meaningless if they can't protect their homecourt. Meanwhile, the Lakers know that they can "undo the damage" which was done at LA and regain homecourt advantage by earning a victory tonight. With so much on the line and considering the physical nature of the two games at LA, this should be a very intense game. With such a small number, the majority of the betting public will surely be backing the visiting Lakers. However, I believe that the Rockets have an excellent shot at earning the victory. Note that the Lakers are an ugly 6-13 SU and ATS the last 19 times that they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. I backed the Lakers in Game 2, so I wasn't surprised that they ended up with a double-digit win. However, there was nothing "easy" about the victory, or at least not the cover. Earlier in the same day, the Magic, who had also won on the road in their opener, basically rolled over at Boston. They were seemingly already content to have won one road game. The Rockets had an entirely different mentality, as they played as if they were truly serious about trying to take a 2-0 lead back to Houston. The Lakers jumped out to early double-digit lead but the Rockets responded. By halftime, the teams were tied. It was a physical game filled with ejections, one which saw LA's Derek Fisher get suspended for tonight's game at Houston. Of course, that followed the Rockets' outright upset in Game 1. The Rockets won or tied all four quarters of that game, proving to the Lakers and themselves that they were for real. I backed the Rockets in that game, so I wasn't surprised to see them give the type of effort that they did. While Kobe and co. are still the steep favorites to win the series, of all the teams in the West, I felt (and feel) that the Rockets were (and are) their toughest matchup. The Rockets are tough. They're strong. They fight hard every game. They play excellent defense. They're not intimidated. When Yao Ming is on top of his game, as he was in Game 1 (28 pts, 10 rebounds) he presents that Lakers with a challenge that they don't get from other teams. I really get the sense that this is very important to Yao. When he banged his knee, he barely made a fuss about it. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "My knee feels fine, thanks for asking. There's no need to worry about it..." Ron Artest had this to say of his center: "He didn't even make it to the training room. Time was of essence. Every second, it was killing him not to be on the bench or on the floor. He came right out. I was so proud of him. He showed so much courage and knew that we needed him." With elbows flying and players like Ming going down and coming back, not to mention Battier bleeding heavily, the Rockets really seem to have bonded. They know that their teammates are giving it everything they have and that makes them want to do the same. On the other hand, Kobe and the Lakers almost seem to enjoy the fact that they're being challenged. Obviously, they know how important this game is but I still don't get the feeling that they view it as "urgently" as the Rockets do. Looking at some stats and we find that the Rockets are 36-8 at home on the season. That includes a perfect 3-0 mark here in the playoffs. They're also a terrific 11-1 SU (10-2 ATS) the last dozen times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. I expect them to bounce back and look for them to grab a 2-1 lead in the series. *2nd Rd GOY

Mr. IWS

05-08-2009, 05:28 PM

BURNS MLB

Baseball (MLB)

CINCINNATI

Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Time: 5/8/2009 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Reds Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Its true that the Reds are dealing with some 'issues,' as a few players are either injured and/or dealing with the flu. That didn't stop them from earning a 6-5 victory yesterday though. I expect the Reds to build some positive momentum from yesterday's win and look for them to get the job done with pitching. Cueto didn't fare too well against the Cardinals last season. However, he's been a MUCH better pitcher (1.65 ERA) so far this season and he's currently in exceptional form. In fact, Cueto's last three starts have seen him go 2-0 with a remarkable 0.41 ERA and 0.773 WHIP. He's averaged greater than seven innings per start, going a minimum of seven per start. Over that stretch, he's recorded a very impressive 17 K's to just two walks. In his last start, he went eight innings and recorded nine K's. While the Cards are tough, I expect Cueto to continue his success this evening. He was quoted as saying: "I want to go deep in the game. I'm working hard to be more consistent and that's the goal in every game." Pineiro is admittedly no slouch either. He's fared well vs. the Reds over his career and he also brings some solid stats to the table. However, he's not dominating the way that Cueto currently is, as evidenced by the fact that he's got just five K's to three walks over his last three starts. The Cards lost his last start by a score of 6-1. That was at Washington and the Nationals currently have the worst record in all of baseball. Including that result, the Cards are just 2-4 the last six times that Pineiro started on the road. The Reds come in with a solid 8-3 (+6.4) record against winning teams. With the line having fallen significantly from its opening number, I feel that they now provide us with excellent value. *Personal Favorite