5-12-09

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux Sports

Baseball
#901 - MLB - 3 units on St. Louis -115
#911 - MLB - 3 units on Houston +161
#916 - MLB - 3 units on San Francisco -133
#922 - MLB - 3 units on Toronto -138
#929 - MLB - 3 units on Boston +110

Basketball
#734 - NBA - 3 units on Boston -2

Today's Free Pick is LA Lakers -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Trapp

-=TOP PLAY=- NBA | May 12
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics Boston Celtics -2-110

Betting Trends

Magic are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Celtics are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games.

Magic are 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Boston.

Neither Teams trends are unbelievable so we will disregard them in this instance. Pure handicapping this game comes down to the end and the winning team will be the one that makes tough shots and comes up with a few defensive stops. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have not played well in this series and are due for huge breakout game. The heart of the champion and the home crowd will carry the Celtics to cover this one. Magic have played well in the playoffs but still rely on too many three point shots which Boston will take away in game 5. Orlando has not learned how to win close games yet and BOSTON has owned close games this year!!SCORE BOS 98 - ORL 92

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Freese

MLB | May 12
Was Nationals vs. Sfo Giants Sfo Giants -130

San Francisco is 7-3 in the last 10 home starts made by Matt Cain and they are 7-0 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Cain has allowed 2 or less runs in five of his six starts this year. The Giants are 19-7 their last 26 home games vs. righty starters. Washington is 16-35 their last 51 games as underdogs and they are 13-40 vs. winning teams. The Nationals are 15-48 their last 63 games as road underdogs and they are 16-35 on Tuesday. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO w/Cain

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

4* Magic +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore +120 (moneyline)

Andy Sonnanstine has not given the Rays the type of start they had hoped for and in general, the Rays are having a hard time duplicating what they did a year ago. Sonnanstine has never had a whole lot of success on the road where the Rays are just 10-10 since the beginning of their surge a year ago. Compare that to their 12-6 mark in his home starts. The Orioles have already notched a win against him this season, and Mark Hendrickson will get the ball for the Orioles. Hendrickson is more of an innings eater, but in actuality he has out-pitched Sonnanstine on the young season, so getting the Birds in plus money at home has redeemable value, so I'll back them here

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Weston

25 Dime Houston Rockets

10 Dime Celtics

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

Tuesday's Card

5 Dime Celtics (1st Half)



5 Dime Celtics



5 Dime Lakers (1st Half)

[Mr. IWS]

fairway jay 20* under celts.

[Mr. IWS]

FERINGO

4.5-Unit Play. Take #922 Toronto (-135) over N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

2-Unit Play. Take #901 St. Louis (-115) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)


2-Unit Play. Take #904 Philadelphia (-110) over L.A. Dodgers (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)


2-Unit Play. Take #926 Minnesota (-135) over Detroit (8 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Texas (-145) over Seattle (8 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)


Today's Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 Cincinnati at Arizona (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, May 12)

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex

MLB Superplay: San Francisco Under 8.5 -110 (916)

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG NBA
Game: Orlando at Boston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on First Half UNDER 96.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

The Magic and Celtics have exchanged blows through four games in what is turning out to be another very good series. Tonight they return to Boston, in what is now a best of three series. The tone of this game should remain intense and defensively-focused. That's been Boston's calling card over the last two years. Without KG in the lineup, this team is definitely giving up more points but they are tending to come in the second half when they are more worn down. We've been cashing with first-half UNDERs throughout the playoffs (12-3 on our 1HU picks so far) and this series has held form for us thus far. It has taken on a defensive mindset in the first half. Although the OVERs and UNDERs have split the game totals through four games, three of the four have produced 94 points or less in the first half. I expect more of the same with the defense cranked up early, with each team trying to break the will of the other. I think Orlando will also work the shot clock much more efficiently in this one as they jacked up 27 three pointers in game four, and simply were impatient on offense (but we still got the 1HU). Boston, despite shooting 53% in game four, only managed 95 points for the game. Orlando playoff games are averaging 93 first-half points. This season they are 25-15 UNDER in the first-half vs. a winning opponent and 12-3 UNDER when seeking revenge. Boston is 40-26 UNDER in the first-half this season following a win and 29-19 UNDER aftrer an ATS win. They are also 31-3 UNDER in the first-half this season when facing a team that averages 100+ ppg. I'll play this one UNDER in the first-half.

Game: Houston at Los Angeles Lakers (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on First Half UNDER 100.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

The Houston Rockets really stepped up last game in the absence of Yao Ming, who will miss the rest of the playoffs. The effort on the defensive end was instrumental in their rather easy and surprising win at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles, for all the offense they possess, has turned the corner defensively, having played 22 of their last 33 games to the UNDER, including five of their last seven playoff games. Last game they didn't play good defense and they have heard about it from their family, friends, media and fans over the past couple of days. That was an embarrassing performance and you can bet they are going to be much more inspired on that end of the floor in this game, especially out of the gate. The Lakers have met a lot of opposition against the Rockets, especially early. Without Yao, the Houston defensive effort seems to be even more focused. The team showed that they know they all need to step up. The Lakers have managed to score almost 30 points per game in the fourth quarter as they wear down the Rockets. But the first half has been very defensive with just one game reaching the century mark of the four played. Even the last two regular-season games the Lakers managed just 44 and 40 first-half points, making their six-gamefirst-half average just 44 points per game against the Rockets. Over the past two seasons, the Lakers are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER in the first half when the line is set between 98 and 101. They are also 19-7 UNDER in the first-half at home coming off a road loss. Houston, whose signature is defense, has played 101 of their last 156 games vs. teams at .700+ to the UNDER in the first-half. They are 20-9 UNDER in their last 29 games this season vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. Both teams are motivated to play tough defense early on here (for different reasons). I like the UNDER in the first-half.

[Mr. IWS]

ted servansky

3units texas
3units cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG NHL

Game: Boston at Carolina (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Carolina +1.5 goals -300 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 1.7)

I’m not sure many expected this Hurricanes’ team to go up 3-1 in the series vs. the Bruins, and they now get their first attempt to close out the series at home up three games to two. The Hurricanes have really been pouring it on at home as they are on a 16-2 home-ice run. That also shows them as being 17-1 if they were to be getting +1.5 goals on home ice in their last 18 - certainly showing some value on the puckline as they have already outscored the Bruins 7-3 in the two games played here. I certainly respect the Bruins, but even over their last 10 regular season games, they were just 3-7 on the road, and this Carolina team is showing to be a lot more difficult than the Canadiens team the Bruins steamrolled. It’s hard to play against a team that has rolled at home over their last 18 home tilts, but out of respect for the Bruins, I'll opt for the value of the puckline on the Hurricanes.

[Mr. IWS]

Joe Gaffney

MLB ONE SHOT ONE KILL!

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants (MLB) - 10:15 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -129 San Francisco Giants

Frisco is hot and they own the Nationals who are a bad on the road

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
pirates/playmaker
under giants/ reg.
toronto/reg.
orlando/playmaker
under lakers/reg.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Trace Adams 1000* - Boston Celtics, 500* - St. Louis w/Wellemeyer over Duke Big Baby Davis banged home the buzzer-beating jumper on Sunday that kept Boston out of a big series hole. I have a feeling that momentum is going to carry over tonight for the Celtics, and have a negative effect on the Magic.

Orlando is on a 2-6 spread slide their last 8 on the road, and with this series now down to a best-of-three, expect the home court to mean something tonight.

At this point of the season, I am not going to sit here and type out stats and trends ad nauseum, I am just going to tell you my feeling is the experience of the Celtics is going to win out in this critical game, and I am laying the small home wood with Boston in Game 5 tonight.

1000? - Boston Celtics

In baseball, have to lay some road wood with the Cardinals against a Pittsburgh team that has lost their last 8.

Included in that losing streak is a pair of losses last week in the Gateway City, as Zack Duke was scuffed up for 4 runs in 5 innings in taking his 2nd straight loss.

Todd Wellemeyer's last start was a 7 inning, 2 run win over the Bucs, and the righty is also 2-0 on the road this year with an under 2 ERA.

The Cards are 4-2 in this year's season series, and they do come to town have won 3 of their last 5.

Go with St. Louis.

500? - St. Louis w/Wellemeyer over Duke

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy 5-12-09

4U - "O" 10.5 Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Sterling

Orlando at Boston
Pick: Boston -2

Tonight is all about heart. Boston has it and Orlando doesn't. Boston with not as much talent is getting everything out of their talent and their two most important players are now PG Rondo and HC Rivers. If you match that up with Orlando in PG Alston and HC Vangundy then you see why Boston is the right side in this pivital game #5. Take Boston tonight minus the small spot.

[Mr. IWS]

JB sports

3 stars boston celtics
3 stars la lakers

[Mr. IWS]

M@LINSKY

4- lakers
4- cardinals
4-rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Canada

Hurricanes/Bruins over 5
Ducks +135

[Mr. IWS]

fairway jay

20* under celts

[Mr. IWS]

Fred Wallin
Fred Wallin's MLB Total's Play of the Month
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (May 12 7:05 PM)
Over 10.5 (-115.0)
You think there is a dearth of pitching in baseball? Well look no further than this matchup as both Hendrickson and Sonnanstine are fortunate to be in MLB rotations. Sonnanstine's job almost certainly is on the line in this game.


Take the Over and watch the fun

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3 Units Detroit / Anaheim Over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

GAMEHUNTER


2009 Record: 128-108, +50.0799 Hudlers
Monday: 1-1, +0.39 units

Still contemplating a few other games.....


WHITE SOX +138 (2 UNITS)

KANSAS CITY +123 (2 UNITS)

LA ANGELS -113 (2 UNITS)

ATLANTA +113 (1.75 UNITS)

PHILADELPHIA -107 (1.5 UNITS)

PITTSBURGH +106 (1.5 UNITS)

SAN DIEGO +134 (1.5 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

oc dooley

“1 UNIT” BASEBALL PERCENTAGE TOTAL (Braves at Mets UNDER 8’ in a 7:10 eastern start-------Jurrjens versus Pelfrey): Last night on ESPN we were supposed to be treated to a pitchers duel where Johan Santana and is SUB-ONE ERA were involved. Atlanta veteran Derek Lowe certainly did his job allowing just 2 runs in 6.2 quality innings of work, but the game still made it above the spot. One of the keys to this total is that last night’s spot of 7 runs has risen to 8’ runs this evening which gives us some value to work with. The bottom line is that Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens has the best ROAD ERA in the entire National League (excellent 1.84 overall ERA in the past 5 trips to the mound). I will admit that the Mets have supported Mike Pelfrey with 36 runs in his 5 starting assignments, but their lineup tonight is facing arguably Atlanta’s best hurler. The last time Jair Jurrjens took the mound, he permitted just THREE hits in 7 excellent innings. Note that the Braves offense has supported Jurrjens with only 9 runs in his last 5 starts combined and that offense may be without injured slugger Chipper Jones (elbow) for a second consecutive evening. Prior to last night, the Mets offense had plated a massive 32 runs in four games. But my database research indicates that the Mets are 31-12 UNDER since 1997 following 5 consecutive games where they played above the total. The Braves just happen to be 29-13 UNDER long term when off a “margin” victory of at least 4 runs. I will wrap this up with an UNDEFEATED angle which sees Atlanta 10-0 UNDER/ROAD the past two years after winning 5 times in a 7-game span. Do I hear 11-0 UNDER anyone?!