5-15-09

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Trapp

-=TOP PLAY=- MLB | May 15
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Cincinnati Reds -120

Rough free play loss yesterday ending our three game win streak. Today we go back to what got us the hot streak, MLB!! All trends and capping point to a very easy winner tonight. Lets get back on track!


Records


Cincinnati Reds 20-14, 13-5 away (Harang 3-3, 2.93 ERA)


San Diego Padres 13-22, 8-6 home (Correia 0-2, 5.34 ERA)



Betting Trends


SD are 7-19 in their last 26 overall.


Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.


Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.


Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.



Two teams headed in opposite directions: Reds 3 wins in a row, Padres lost 6 in a row!! Also Harang has been unbelievable this year for the Reds only giving up more than 2 runs twice out of seven starts. Early in the season the Reds were winning with dominating pitching but the last 6 games has seen the bats heat up averaging over 7 runs per game against several good pitchers in that string. Even better for Harang is that the Padres have been in a slump over the last month where they have only 4 wins out of 23 games and averaging less than three runs. Padres had to travel home late last night whereas the Reds were waiting for them in San Diego on an off day yesterday. A hot rested team verse a cold tired team, pretty easy capping. SCORE: REDS 6 - SD 1

[Mr. IWS]

Fred Wallin's Friday Total's Winner
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays (May 15 7:35 PM)
Over 9.0 (-125.0)
A bad week for ex Trojans as Reyes is capable of giving up nine runs by himself. Kazmir's ERA is almost 6.00

Over over over

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

MLB | May 15
Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers Oakland Athletics +130

Ryan nailed his last 3 10* Titan Plays and looks to continue this unbeaten streak with another DOG that is reinforced by winning information featuring strong proven angles and pitcher and bullpen detail that shows you why the wrong team is favored. Join him now for this easy DOG winner.

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Oakland as they face Detroit slated to start at 7:05 EST. Oakland is 175-129 (+48.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game since 1997. Detroit is 48-69 (-31.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 since 1997. Oakland is 24-42 (-17.8 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons. Leyland is 21-7 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. Oakland starter Anderson may 0-3, but he far better than that record would indicate. As is the case with 90% of pitchers he truly needs to work ahead in the count. Batters hit just 226 after an 0-1 count, 067 after an 0-2 count. Batters hit 326 after a 1-0 count. Another key advantage that he has it that Detroit has never faced him live. It is one thing to review scouting reports and watch video, but it is a completely different thing to actually face that pitcher. Take Oakland.

[Mr. IWS]

Vernon Croy

-=TOP PLAY=- MLB | May 15
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -165

Take the Tampa Bay Rays ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Rays have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight although Kazmir has struggled early this season. The Rays are 15-1 in their last 16 games when Kazmir has started as a favorite of -151 to -200 and the Rays are 36-5 in their last 41 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games after a loss and they are hitting .309 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging 6.4 rpg. I look for the Rays to give Kazmir plenty of run support tonight against Reyes who has an ERA of 10.38 over his last 7 games while allowing 22 hits over just 13 innings. The Indians are just 1-11 in their last 12 games in game 2 of a series and they are also just 3-14 in their last 17 games wining their previous game. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Friday night since this play is just over my personal -150 limit to make it a premium play.

[Mr. IWS]

charlie
mlb. reds @ san diego under 8 runs (500*).
mlb. washington+105 (30*)
mlb. florida-130 (20*)
mlb. yankees-130 (20*)
mlb. white sox+115 (10*)
mlb. cincinnati-120 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Sawyer

Pitching Surprise Play

At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan. The Phillies enter this series 16-16 overall after dropping a disappointing 5-3 ten inning affair with the Dodgers Thursday night. They meet a Nationals club that is 11-21 on the season. The Phillies will send out the right-handed veteran, Joe Blanton, to the mound. Blanton has posted some ugly numbers so far this season. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.60. Blanton had two outings in April where he could not get out of the 5th inning while allowing seven and six earned runs respectively. However, a look beyond these frontline numbers into some deeper sabermetric statistics suggests that Blanton should be achieving better results. A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where the balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is .290. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to have this number lower. Blanton currently has a BABIP of .343 this season which is high and "unlucky." What this tells us is that Blanton has been unfortunate in that many of the balls he has allowed in play are not being hit towards Philly fielders. He should not to expect that trend to continue since that is a bit a function of luck regarding where the defense happens to be positioned -- which, of course, will then decrease the number of hits he allows as well as then the number of runs he allows. Additionally, the Phillies lead the majors with just eight errors on the season. As time goes by, Blanton will benefit from these balls being hit towards the capable Philly fielders that back him up. Blanton's last two outings suggest he his already turning around his early season difficulties. On May 4th, he pitched six innings and allowed just one run on just four hits in a win at St. Louis. Then on May 9th, while giving up six runs in eight innings against the Braves, two of those runs came on an 8th inning homer he allowed. We are encouraged by the fact that he had five strikeouts with just one walk in that game. Furthermore, he averaged just 13.8 pitches per inning in that outing which suggests that, for much of the game, he was dominant. He compiled 110 pitches which were the most he has accumulated in one game all season -- which explains why stayed in the game through the eighth inning. Blanton is a solid strikeout pitcher. He averages 7.2 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.8:1 Strikeout pitchers with good control are the ones most likely to pitch themselves out of slumps. Not only can strikeout pitchers get themselves out of jams with their "stuff," but the credible threat of striking out a hitter compels batters to swing earlier in the count. When combined with a low-walk rate, strikeout pitchers gain control of the "chess match" between hitters and pitchers. This is a recipe for long term success. The veteran Blanton certainly has the repertoire to pitch well. In the second half of last season (when he was traded to the Phillies), Blanton was 4-0 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a very nice low opponent's batting average of just .251. He struck out 52 batters in 76 1/3 innings during that stretch. Blanton has also pitched much better away from Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park this season. On the road in two '09 starts, Blanton has a 1-1 record with a 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .250 in twelve innings. Given these peripheral numbers, we expect a strong performance "surprise" out of the Phillies' starter tonight.

The Nationals send out their ace, John Lannan, with his 2-3 record along with a 3.89 ERA. Lannan does have a high opponent's batting average of .282 along with a worrisome WHIP of 1.50 this season. Lannan is not a strikeout pitcher as he averages just 4.53 Ks per nine innings. Additionally, his K-to-Walk ration is 1.3:1 which is not very impressive since for every four strikeouts, Lannan averages three walks. In 2008, Lannan was 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA overall -- but his numbers at home were noticeably worse as he was just 4-9 with a 4.89 ERA. And, Lannan struggled against the Phillies last year as he was 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of a whopping .323 in 16 2/3 innings. Both of these offenses are good; the Nationals average 5.15 runs per game while the Phillies score 5.52 runs per game -- ranking 9th and 5th in the majors respectively. However, the Phillies averaged 4.94 runs per game last season to just the 3.98 average of the Nationals. Over the long run, the Philly crew of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino should out-hit Ryan Zimmerman and Co. this season. If this game goes to the bullpens, the Phillies should have the advantage as the Nationals have an extremely shaky bullpen; collectively, their pen has an ERA of 6.31 with a WHIP of 1.75 and over the last 22 1/2 innings their bullpen ERA jumps to 8.06.

Overall, Philadelphia is an excellent position to win the opening game of this series. Washington is just 16-37 over their last 53 games. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last eight meetings with the Nationals and 7-3 in their last ten games in Washington. Philly is 8-3 in their last eleven games on the road. And, the Phillies are 10-3 in their last thirteen games in games where Blanton starts. Furthermore, Washington is 10-45 versus the money line (-30.8 units) after four or more games on the road over the last two seasons. Finally, there is a strong 85% system against the money line (33-6 since 1997, +25.2 units) that looks to play on National League road favorites of at least -110 if they are sending a starting pitcher who has a WHIP between 1.55-1.65 while sporting a lineup that averages at least 3.5 extra-base hits a game. The defending National League Champions should knock around the Nationals' Lannan while their starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, should be primed to "surprise" with an excellent pitching performance. MLB Hollywood Insider Starting Pitcher Surprise on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG EARLY AFTERNOON PLAY

Game: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago Cubs -150 (moneyline)

The Chicago Cubs are beginning to get it going. Last season, they were the only National League team to win over 50 games at home, and they did it by a lot at 55. This season, they are 11-6 at home, and now 7-1 in their last eight outings at Wrigley. They have plated 49 runs in the eight games, or just over eight runs per game. Houston is a weak hitting team that found some success in the thin air and poor pitching in Colorado and in San Diego, who has dropped 19 of 23. They are a poor 5-16 as a +100 to +150 favorite, showing that they have trouble in these situations. The Cubs have been absolute murderers on teams with a losing record as they are now an awe inspiring 41-12 in their last 53 against them. That converts to 77.4% winners, enough for me to back Chicago in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

FERR RINGOO 5-15-09
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2-Unit Play. Take #966 San Francisco (-165) over N.Y. Mets (10 p.m., Friday, May 15)
1-Unit Play. Take #966 San Francisco (-1.5, +130) over N.Y. Mets (10 p.m., Friday, May 15)


2-Unit Play. Take #978 Kansas City (-1.5, -105) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Friday, May 15)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #974 Tampa Bay (-165) over Cleveland (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 15)
1-Unit Play. Take #974 Tampa Bay (-1.5, +115) over Cleveland (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 15)

1-Unit Play. Take #963 Cincinnati (-120) over San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, May 15)


1-Unit Play. Take #967 Minnesota (+115) over N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Friday, May 15)


1-Unit Play. Take #979 Boston (-155) over Seattle (10 p.m., Friday, May 15)

Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Friday, May 15)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 15)

[Mr. IWS]

GameHunter

2009 Record: 139-119, +50.8499 Quirks
Thursday: 3-4, -1.6725 units

Today I am due for one miracle win I do not deserve. Need one of my memorable Fridays from the past two seasons. Sorry, been too busy to answer everyone's questions. Good luck today.


HOUSTON +140 (1.75 UNITS)

COLORADO +105 (1.5 UNITS)

FLORIDA -130 (1.75 UNITS)

SAN DIEGO +117 (1.5 UNITS)

WHITE SOX +124 (1.25 UNITS)

OVER PHIL/WASH 9.5 RUNS (-105) (2 UNITS)

UNDER MILW/STL 8.5 RUNS (-105) (1.75 UNITS)

OVER MINN/YANKS 10 RUNS (-120) (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER WHITE SOX/TORONTO 8.5 RUNS (-110) (1.5 UNITS)

OVER CLE/TB 9.5 RUNS (-107) (2.25 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

M@LINSKY

3- Cubs
4- Cincy
4- Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup

25 Dime ---- Phillies-Nationals OVER

10 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS

PHILLY/WASHINGTON OVER --- To be honest, I was completely surprised to see this total as low as it is tonight. I truly believed it would come out around 10.5, but to see it at 9.5 is an absolute steal and I’m jumping all over it.

These two teams have already faced each other five times this season and the combined run total for both teams is 64 runs, or, over 10 per game. The Nats have already had 16 of their games finish OVER the total while the Phillies have pushed past the number 17 times in 30 games. What’s even more encouraging is what the Nationals have been doing lately. Listen to these recent final scores... 6-3, 9-7, 11-7, 10-8, 5-4, 2-1, 11-9… the list goes on and on. Something I noticed about this Nationals team early on was the fact they have a really good hitting lineup, but they just don’t have a lick of pitching. Shoot, their best pitcher might be a young prospect named Jordan Zimmerman who hasn’t really hit his stride yet.

Tonight’s pitcher, John Lannan, has already seen the Phillies once this year, allowing 9 hits and 3 ER in 5 innings of work, as the Phillies would eventually score 7 runs. What excites me most about this OVER play with Lannan on the hill is his WHIP (1.50). Every inning he pitches, you can just about guarantee at least one baserunner, and if you do that long enough to the Phillies lineup, they’re going to make you pay.

On the other side we have Joe Blanton and his inflated 6.82 WHIP and 1.60 WHIP. Blanton has seen the Nats twice already this season, and one of those games resulted in a 13-11 Phillies win. Blanton’s ERA vs. Washington in 2009 is 9.00 and his opponent’s batting average against is over .300. Bottom line: Joe Blanton isn’t very good right now and probably should account for at least 4 ER tonight.

Both of these teams have very potent offenses and there’s no reason to think this game stays under 10 runs. Play the OVER as your top play of the day.


TORONTO BLUE JAYS --- I’m not sure if you were with me on Sunday when I gave you my highest rated MLB play of the season, but it was on Toronto, and Brett Cecil was on the hill. Until he gets going a little bit more, we’re going to get GREAT prices when we back this guy. Oh sure, eventually he’ll be giving -150 and -160 when he pitches at home, but tonight the money line is basically even. That, my friend, is a steal.

Cecil has pitched just twice this year, and his team has won both games despite the fact that he’s only 1-0 himself. In his two starts, Cecil has been brilliant, going 14 total innings, allowing just one ER, 11 hits and two walks for a WHIP under 1.00. Not bad for a rookie, eh? And If his 0.64 ERA isn’t enough for you, what about the fact that he’s struck out six batters in each game and his pitch count per inning dropped from 16 to 13 from game 1 to game 2? So far so good for this 23-year-old.

Cecil will face John Danks tonight, and although he’s been very good so far this year, he hasn’t been as good as Cecil and is more than capable of imploding. Danks hasn’t seen the Blue Jays yet this season (but Toronto did still win two of three earlier this year), but in one appearance vs. the Blue Jays in 2008, Danks suffered a 5-2 loss. In 2007, Danks faced the Blue Jays just once (again) and was on the short end of a 4-3 score.

Toronto is the hottest hitting team in Major League Baseball and is thankful to see the Yankees leave the building. They welcome fresh blood this evening and I see no chance for the White Sox to pull off the win.

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops

5* 2 Teamer Kansas City/Atlanta +135 **POD**
5* Kansas City -1.5 +105
5* Boston -155
5* Boston OVER 9 -105
5* Florida -135

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers -- 4/5 winning nights.

954 Washington Over 9.5
974 Tampa Bay Over 9.5
976 Texas -120 (big ticket)

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* MLB O/U GAME OF THE NIGHT!
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres (May 15 10:05 PM)
Under 8.0 (100.0)
When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team - Last 3 years - Vs Non Division Opponent - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog - Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game - Coming off a 6 Game Road Trip; The UNDER is 21-12-4 for the Home Team (SD) in this spot L3Y.



When SAN DIEGO team played as a 100 to 120 Home Underdog - 1st game of a series - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a day game - Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game; The UNDER is 9-3-0 for the Padres in this role since ’97.

[Mr. IWS]

MATT RIVERS

75,000* ULTRA-RARE RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR Plus Bonus Locks
Your winners here are on:

1. 75,000? Royals minus 1 1/2 runs

2. 50,000? Mets

3. 50,000? Twins


1. Zach Greinke did just pick up his first loss on the season last time out but shoot, don't blame him. The Kansas City righthander threw a complete game (eight innings) in the 1-0 loss at Anaheim as he was outduled by Joe Saunders. The only run came on a sac fly in the third inning and I do not at all take anything negative away from Greinke in that loss as his dominance is still very much alive and well.

After starting the season now 6-1 and having an ERA at an unreal .51 I just do not see the mediocre at the very best Orioles being able to do all that much at all. Don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily mind the O's when a big dog at times because there is potential there with Roberts, Jones, Markakis and a few others but nobody has really been able to get to Greinke and when up against a pretty bad Adam Eaton I just do not see Baltimore doing nearly enough to compete today.

The Royals are a spunky team that can hit the ball and against Eaton should hit the ball. The O's right has been fairly awful this season. Yes he has had some success in the bigs in the past with the Phillies and Padres but right now the righty is bad and is light years behind his mound opponent.

Can you say 8-1? I can!



2. Tim Lincecum is the reigning Cy Young award winner and a guy with absolute lights out stuff. There is no doubt that he can completely shut down anybody, including these Mets, if he is on. Lincecum is clearly far superior when compared with Livan Hernandez but the Mets are still one of the better teams in all of baseball and are just a no-brainer at this price.

Delgado is banged up but with studs in Reyes, Wright and Beltran I wouldn't be too shocked if the New Yorkers were able to do some damage against Lincecum and it's not exactly like this poor Giant offense is all that scary. Plus Hernandez has actually been very good at times this season and also is a former Giant who should therefore be properly motivated tonight.

This is an old school baseball play. When you are getting such a great takeback when you have the better everything except for one variable, granted that is the most important variable as it is the starting pitcher, then it is no-brainer!

This is the kind of play that if I lose I just do not care because you have no choice but to play it. If Lincecum is not on then this is the steal of all steals!



3. I do admit that the Twins are not a "great value" here on the road in the Bronx as they're not getting all that much back in terms of price but to not have to lay money with the upside of Francisco Liraino against Phil Hughes is good enough for me.

I do realize that Liriano has struggled mightily at times this season (including the seven run debacle at Fenway) but take out that first start for Hughes and the young righty has been a total and complete mess. Hughes is supposed to be a young star but he truly has been anything but so far in his short Major League Career.

The Twins bats collectively are not great at all but Mauer and Morneau are scary as heck and there are others like Cuddyer and Kubel who are good. No they are not Arod or Teixeira good but Liriano can be an absolute stud and I'll therefore take my chances here for sure against what has been a pretty bad Yankee club.

Let's be honest here Joe Girardi's squad is well overrated and even with Rodriguez back have a lot of suspect pieces playing on a daily basis.

Look for Morneau to have a big game as usual and for Liriano to hold his own in a win

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex MLB

Superplay: Toronto Under 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin Rogers

Mets at Giants
Pick: Mets +161

The Mets had a huge ninth inning in last night's 7-4 victory over the Giants, scoring three times in their last at-bat to upend San Francisco. The Giants send out their ace Tim Lincecum tonight, but the Mets have had success against the reigning Cy Young Award winner, beating him twice in two outings. Lincecum has rebounded following a slow start to the season, picking up four consecutive wins, all quality starts. Livan Hernandez has found a spot in the Mets rotation, winning three starts despite an ERA of 4.81. However, Hernandez has one terrible start on his ledger, allowed 7 ER in 4.1 IP at St. Louis last month. Besides that, Hernandez is coming off back-to-back quality starts in wins over the Pirates and Braves. The Mets are a perfect 7-0 this season with the total between 8 and 8.5, and 7-1 L8 against right-handed starters. I'm a huge Lincecum fan, but facing this type of offense as a substantial favorite is not right. I'll back the Mets as a road dog to pick up their s

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Fan Appreciation Game Of The Week

Play On: Cincinnati w/Harang

When the Reds send Aaron Harang to the mound in San Diego this evening they will do so knowing he's been in commanding KW form with 7 walks and 35 strikeouts in his last six starts and 7 walks and 33 strikeouts in his last six road starts as well. He's also 4-1 with 3.25 ERA in the park at San Diego. Behind the steady serves of Harang, look for the Reds to improve to 8-3 on Fridays and for the Padres to dip to 4-11 on Fridays here tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4 Under 9 Boston Red Sox / Seattle

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner

961 MIL (-115) SportBet vs 962 STL
Analysis: Ò
** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

GALLARDO over Lohse

958 FLA (-140) SportBet vs 957 LOS
Analysis:
** MLB 2* PERSO?NAL PLAY **

VOLSTAD over Stults

955 COL (-105) Bodog vs 956 PIT
Analysis:
** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **


DE LA ROSA over Maholm

976 TEX (-125) SportBet vs 975 ANA
Analysis:
*** MLB 3* AL GAME of the WEEK ***

MILLWOOD over Saunders

978 KAN -1.5 (+105) Bookmaker.com vs 977 BAL
Analysis: ?
** MLB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

GREINKE -1.5 (RL) +105 over Eaton

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp

Philly -115

Double Dime