6-6-09 Belmont only

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

BELMONT PARK Race #5 at 1:50 PM Eastern

Top pick: #7 (PARC DES PRINCESS) - Brazilian import has been freshened-up by a solid California trainer (Paulo Lobo) who is spending his first season at Belmont Park. Lightly-raced runner ran strong in a pair last year when he first came from Brazil and was in the barn of Bob Frankel. Working nicely for his first race in almost seven weeks and he can either go to the front or rate just off the lead. The top pick, and at a square price.
2nd pick: #5 (Le Grand Cru) - Son of "Dynaformer" is lightly raced, improving, and in the barn of "Hall of Fame" trainer H. Allen Jerkens. Ran well last out in his first grass race when lasix was added for the attempt, and can factor here with any further improvement in his second on the infield.
3rd pick: #2 (Rock In Rage) - Brazilian-bred, but he raced in Argentina when in South America. Shadwell import is nicely bred and raced well in a pair at this level on the Keeneland turf earlier this year. Has a stalking style, draws the hedge, and is a win threat.
4th pick: #3 (Get Stormy) - Has the best last race of any entered, finishing second at this level here on May 20, going a mile. He's come back to work well since and will turnaround quickly for this (17 days) after being idle for seven weeks.

[Mr. IWS]

DREW ROSE 100 DIME

MINE THAT BIRD to win Belmont 2:1

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #6 - BELMONT PARK - 2:33 PM EASTERN POST
The True North Handicap
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE

#6 FABULOUS STRIKE
#1 BENNY THE BULL
#3 TWO STEP SALSA
#2 SILVER EDITION

The True north Handicap was named for the 1945 winner of the Fall Highweight Handicap. True North carried 140 pounds, most of it jockey Ted Atkinson, while covering the six furlongs in 1:08 4/5. It has been run at Belmont Park at the distance of six furlongs since its inception in 1979. Here in the 31st running of this stakes race, #6 FABULOUS STRIKE has won an impressive 11 of 16 in his career to date sprinting at, or about, 6.0 furlongs on the dirt and hit hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Ramon Dominguez has been in his irons on 8 previous occasions, hitting the board in 7, winning 5 times - Dominguez is back today for his 9th ride.

[Mr. IWS]

Battaglia ( PAID PICKS ):

Belmont Race #11
# 7 / 2 / 1 / 5

[Mr. IWS]

Dennis Macklin

Game: #6 at Belmont Stakes
Prediction: #6

Calvin Borel looks to make history in tomorrow?s 141st running of the Belmont as the first jockey to sweep the Triple Crown Races on different horses. Borel was brilliant in guiding Mine That Bird to a 50-1 upset win in the slop at the Derby then begged off ?The Bird? to cash the Preakness with super amazon Rachel Alexandra. Saturday, Borel is reunited with Mine That Bird and is the 2-1 favorite breaking from post seven.

DMack likes #6 Charitable Man to spring a minor upset and take down the Belmont trophy. Why ??? Several reasons.

Charitable Man was considered a top two-year-old and was thought to be a major player in this year?s Triple Crown before a minor fracture set his training back to where he was unable to compete in the Derby despite having enough money on his card to qualify.

Trained by the formidable Kiaran McLaughlin who won the Blemont with Jazil, Charitable Man was clearly short finishing seventh in the Blue Grass before crushing eight opponents in the Peter Pan. He?s a big horse with excellent tactical speed and ridden by the white-hot Alan Garcia.

Not much bad to say bad about Mine That Bird but the Triple Crown Trifecta is a real grind (War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown) and the recent history of the race has not been favorable to late closers. In fact, since 2000, just one horse worse than second with a quarter-mile to go went on to win the race and that horse was third and less then a length back.

IMO, hard to see Mine That Bird at least getting a piece so lets play Charitable Man to win and over a box of Miner?s Escape, Dunkirk, and Mine That Bird for your exotics.

[Mr. IWS]

Discreat Cat

Saturday, June 6, 2009

1-for-3 on Friday, with a winner on Roi Charmant ($7.80)

Belmont - Race 5

#3 Get Stormy (6/1 ml)

This horse ran a big race last out after being transferred back into the Thomas Bush stable, racing inside traffic along the rail while clearly well in hand before finally getting thru a small opening in the late stages and then kicking home strongly to just miss to the excellent prospect Pinckney Hall (whom i had given out that day). Appeared to improve off a similar two-week turnaround at Tampa Bay a couple of months ago as he opened up a 5-length lead in the stretch before losing the jockey (ouch!), and figures to like the squishy turf course here as his dam-sire is Kiri's Clown, a multiple graded stakes winner on the New York circuit some years back who enjoyed soft turf. Also note the win over a "good" Aqueduct course that was obviously quite deep, judging by the snail-like mile time of almost 1:40. Rider change here to Maragh, who according to the DRF sidebar has won 5-of-17 for Bush this year. Should run well.

Belmont - Race 7

#6 Modern Look (8/1 ml)

European import for Frankel had been training very well into her American debut back @ Santa Anita a couple of months ago, and went off @ 3/5 vs. a pretty good field. Showed sharp early speed from the outside post to gain position into the turn, then rated off the leader until making her move in the lane, finishing out pretty strongly despite getting passed by Dawn After Dawn (who most recently ran a close second in a Grade 2 stakes @ Churchill on Derby Day). More important than her lone American race however is the form she showed in Europe last year over soft ground, scoring 3 open-lengths wins with two of them coming in Group races. She also ran second over heavy ground in her prep for the French Thousand Guineas, where she finished reasonably close to the freakish fillies Zarkava and Goldikova, both of whom accomplished more as 3yo's than Rachel Alexandra has this year (they each beat males in Group One stakes, tougher males than Rachel has beaten). And finishing just ahead of Modern Look in third was none other than Halfway to Heaven, who went favored in the Breeders Cup F&M Turf last year (over today's 6/5 ml favorite Forever Together, coincidentally enough). So clearly Modern Look has a lot of talent, more than she showed in her American debut, and she also clearly likes the squishy stuff. Going a bit further, she appears to have worked in company with her multiple stakes winning barnmate Ventura back on May 10. Expecting an improved effort here, perhaps much improved, and she should offer an inflated price here thanks to her low Beyer figure. Figures for a good trip too, as she's drawn outside the pacesetters Raw Silk and Captain's Lover, and should have the jump on Forever Together into the lane.

Belmont - Race 9

#4 Funny Moon (8/1 ml)

Upwardly mobile Clement filly has won going away in two straight one-turn miles, the same setup she gets here. Rated very comfortably off the pace over the same Belmont surface last time before running right past Solo Piano into the lane, notable not just because Solo Piano returned to win next start, but also because Solo Piano was making her move to the lead at exactly the same time. Really an impressive burst of speed on the turn by Funny Moon there, and that should serve her well here as there figures to be a contested pace in front of her that should flatter her turn of foot. I also have to wonder why McLaughlin's stable rider Alan Garcia is staying off his regular mount Justwhistledixie (the 8/5 ml favorite here) in order to stay with Funny Moon. While it's true that Justwhistledixie was ridden by Leparoux last time, and he's back on board today, McLaughlin has only ridden Leparoux 5 times all year, while Garcia has won his last 3 starts aboard Justwhistledixie, two of those coming in stakes. Also remember that Justwhistledixie was scratched out of the Kentucky Oaks with some kind of injury. Could be Garcia knows something. Regardless of that though, Funny Moon figures to run a strong race here over a layout she's proven to like, the race sets up well pace-wise and she'll be an attractive price. Lots to like here.

Belmont - Race 9

#3 Mr. Hot Stuff (15/1 ml)

Tall, lanky colt has been crying out for distance all year long, and he gets it here in spades. The Derby looks to be a throwout (as it often is for many horses) due to the trouble he had at the break, the muddy track he may not have cared for, and the mammoth field that makes rallying from the back damn near impossible for some. Throw that race out and you get his California starts, where he looked fantastic breaking his maiden with a strong outside run before galloping out some 10-15 lengths in front of the field, and of course the two stakes tries where he came up short but was running on well enough late. In fact, i believe he should've run second in the SA Derby but Nakatani made a bonehead move and steered him towards the rail in the stretch, getting him caught behind horses with no room to run. I even saw a quote later where Nakatani said that he "gave him some education", which makes no sense at all considering they were trying to pick up enough graded earnings to make the Derby (it was believed at the time that he needed to run at least second). Long story short, Mr. Hot Stuff gets the good New York rider Prado here and should have every opportunity to extend that big stride of his over the spacious Belmont layout. There's also some possibility that the track may be a bit tiring due to the fact it's been raining cats and dogs the last couple of days, and though it'll be sunny on Saturday there's virtually zero wind in the forecast and the track may be a bit slow to dry. Impossible to say right now, but again it's a possibility. My main concern here is that there's very little speed in the race, and the Belmont tends to be won from near the front even in normal years. So Mr. Hot Stuff's deep-closing style definitely puts him at a disadvantage here. I'm hoping that will be cancelled out by the distance, which he's sure to relish, but i also believe that the pace will be extremely slow here as Garcia knows he holds a big pace edge with Charitable Man, and he'll be trying to take advantage of that by cruising along up front as slow as he can get away with (whether he's on the lead himself or sitting off Miner's Escape). That could cause the field to bunch up quite a bit as it did in the 2007 Belmont (replay on YouTube if you want to take a look), meaning that Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird and Mine That Bird may not be as far behind as you would expect. So Mr. Hot Stuff may not have to make up a tremendous amount of ground; it's difficult to say. In any case, the one thing i do know is that Mr. Hot Stuff will be completely ignored on the toteboard, i'm guessing 20/1 or higher. And i do think he'll come running late, it's just a matter of whether he can get there. Incidentally, i received a tip from a friend of mine that knows several horsemen in the midwest, and he tells me that Mr. Hot Stuff has been training very well at Keeneland in preparation for this race. And i know for a fact that Harty has had this race in mind for Mr. Hot Stuff for a very long time. Many positives here, tempered by the pace setup which unfortunately is out of our control. Worth a shot at the price though, more value here than anywhere else.

I also want to give special mention to Summer Bird, who also will be a very big price here and is very similar in running style (and perhaps talent) to Mr. Hot Stuff. Same issues with the pace, although i read an interesting quote from Kent Desormeaux where he made it abundantly clear that he's extremely cognizant of the Belmont pace scenario and it's effect on the outcome. He even went so far as to say (referring to Mine That Bird) "if he's way in the back he'll never catch us", which i found very interesting considering that Summer Bird comes from way behind himself. So it sure sounds to me like Kent is going to be keeping Summer Bird somewhat close here, particularly if t he field is bunching up on a slow pace the way i think it might. Also note that Summer Bird is adding blinkers here, another indication that they want more speed. Don't be surprised if Summer Bird is much closer than usual, and i would not at all be surprised by a strong run from this colt. Both Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird are must-uses for exotics, if you guys are playing those (and i'm guessing you are). Hard to bet two horses to win in the same race, but at these prices they would make a viable entry while still offering a solid price. Really, i put these two in much the same boat with Mine That Bird, and the difference in their respective prices will be of course be night-and-day. Good luck on the race, let's get one of these guys into the winner's circle.

Hollywood - Race 8

#1 Noble Court (7/2 ml)

Extremely talented colt has one of the strongest late kicks on the local sprint scene, and could well appreciate this 7.5-furlong distance (worth noting he won around two turns over the super-deep[ Del Mar surface of 2007). Gets what should be an honest pace in front of him, runs consistently well off the layoff, and a repeat of his last race would be more than good enough.

Hollywood - Race 9

#5 Madeo (5/2 ml)

I don't have much doubt Madeo is the best horse in this race, it's just a matter of whether he can get the 1 1/4 miles. I thought he could get the distance in the Hollywood Derby (in fact i bet him that day), but that race was totally inconclusive as Mike Smith inexplicably took Madeo to the back of the pack and then just never moved on him (i still no idea what that was all about). Most recently, Madeo absolutely powered home thru the final sixteenth to run down Storm Military, who did everything he could to fight Madeo off after being allowed to coast along on extremely slow fractions, and was still unsuccessful. Just a sensational effort by Madeo to win that race, and you guys may remember that Mike Smith is off Mine That Bird today because he chose to honor his commitment to ride Madeo here (same owners as his main ride Zenyatta, probably being the real reason). In any case, Madeo proved last time that he can sit comfortably off slow fractions and then really pour it on late, and he'll likely get a slowish pace here due to the added distance. But if they're going fast up front, so much the better. Only real concern is that his powerful late kick may be softened up somewhat with the extra distance, but i do like his chances here, and i think Midships will pull enough money to make Madeo playable. Blossoming colt at hopefully a fair price.
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[Mr. IWS]

Doc sports 2009 Belmont Stakes Picks

2009 Belmont Stakes Picks

1st place horse - #7 Mine That Bird
2nd place horse - #1 Chocolate Candy
3rd place horse - #4 Summer Bird

$100 recommended bet

$4 Exacta on 7 with 1,2,4,6,8 = $20
$1 Trifecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $20
$1 Superfecta - 7 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 = $60

Mine That Bird is well set up to win this race - the pace won't be blistering and there is no clear front-runner, so he'll have the opportunity and the room to unleash a big late move under a very confident and red-hot Calvin Borel. There's not a ton of value in betting the Derby winner to win, though, because his already low win price will be bet down further. By keying him on top of an exacta, a trifecta and a superfecta we can look to maximize our potential return. It's an all or nothing approach, but that's the best way to go when you like a heavy favorite and aren't willing to settle for peanuts.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports