6-16-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

06-16-2009, 06:18 PM

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Rangers came into Minute Maid Park back on May 22-24 and left with a three-game sweep, outscoring the Astros 17-8. However, that's the last series Houston has lost. An 8-3 win Sunday in Arizona gave Houston its fifth straight series win, as the Astros have gone 11-5 in that span. The Rangers lost two of three at home to the Dodgers this past weekend, dropping to 2-4 in their current nine-game homestand (concludes with this three-game series with Texas). The Rangers have scored just 14 runs in the six games (2.33 per game), which is quite a 'power outage" from a team which has averaged 5.52 RPG in going 20-13 at home this year. The pitching matchup is a good one tonight, as Wandy Rodriguez goes against Kevin Millwood. Wandy Rodriguez has easily been Houston's best starting pitcher in '09 but despite his 2.82 ERA, he's just 5-5 in 13 starts (Astros are 8-5). Rodriguez had not allowed more than three ERs in any of his first 12 starts but then got hammered in back-to-back outings (9.2 IP / 19 hits / 12 ERs). He was back to his old self in his last outing though, going seven innings allowing five hits and one ER in a 2-1 Astros win over the Cubs last Wednesday (he got a no decision). However, Wandy is still a much better pitcher at home, than on the road. His home/away dichotomy has been drastic in the recent past and while it's much less so in '09, his home ERA is 2.15 this season (team is 5-2), while his road ERA is 3.74 (team is 3-3). Millwood had some excellent seasons for the Braves (quite a long time ago, now) but has been a disappointment as a free agent (Philly, Cleve and now Tex). However, Millwood has been superb in 2009, going 6-4 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts. He last had a sub-4.00 ERA back in 2005 for the Indians (2.86) but was only 9-11 that year. In his last three seasons with the Rangers, Millwood's ERA has been 4.86 but in '09, he's allowed three ERs or less in 10 of his 13 starts (six of last seven). In his last two outings he's allowed just one ER in 14.2 innings, winning 5-1 at Cleveland and 1-0 at home to Toronto. Millwood has made seven hone starts this year, going 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA (team is 5-2). Texas is 14-9 vs lefties in 2009 (averaging 5.4 RPG) and that includes an excellent 8-3 in home night games, where they've averaged 6.5 RPG. Rivalry Game of the Week 7* Tex Rangers.
Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Royals were an early season surprise, opening 18-11. However, the Royals then dropped 23 of their next 30 games before sweeping the Reds this past weekend in KC. The Royals are looking to build on their first three-game series sweep of the season, as they open a three-game series with the 27-37 D'backs, who are in last-place in the NL West. Arizona owns a .244 team BA (27th in MLB) and is coming off a 2-4 homestand, which leaves them 0-4-2 in its six series since taking two of three at Oakland from May 22-24. Doug Davis goes for the D'backs and Gil Meche for the Royals. They are similar in 2009 in that they've both pitched way better than their records would indicate. Davis has allowed two ERs or less in six of his last seven outings (3.32 ERA) but despite a 3.42 ERA on the season, is just 3-7 in 13 starts (team is 4-9). Meche has a 2.27 ERA over his last five starts but is only 1-1 with the team going 1-4. His ERA is 3.70 on the year but he's just 3-5 (Royals are 4-9). He's yet to win at home, going 0-3 with a 5.93 ERA (team is 1-5). However, let's point out that in his last three home starts, his ERA is a respectable 3.52 and that he's 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three career starts against Arizona (teams are 3-0). Meanwhile, Davis is 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA in eight starts against the Royals (teams are 4-4) and that includes an 0-1 mark with a 9.77 ERA in four starts at Kansas City. Las Vegas Insider on the KC Royals (8*).
: Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Dodgers have an awful interleague mark since the beginning of the 2006 season. In fact, they entered last weekend's series at Texas just 16-32 vs AL teams since the start of the 2006 season, having won only three of 16 series in that span. After dropping Friday's opener 6-0, they bounced back with a 3-1 victory on Saturday and a 6-3 win in Sunday's finale. Things are much different for LA this year, as the Dodgers remain MLB's best team with a 42-22 mark overall, including a ML-best 23-9 at home. LA is more than $700 better than any team vs the moneyline in '09, at plus-$1,738. The A's head to Dodger Stadium for a three-games series, off getting swept this past weekend in San Francisco vs the Giants, who are now 21-10 at home. Winning at Dodger Stadium will not come any easier with LA's great home mark (23-9), where the Dodgers have outscored their opponents on average, 4.97 RPG-to-3.31. The A's are batting a ML-low .235 and after winning seven straight games from June 2-8 (averaging 6.0 RPG), have promptly lost five of six, averaging only 2.5 runs. The A's are only 11-20 on the road, where they have scored an average of just 3.84 RPG, while allowing 5.58. Dallas Braden gets the start for Oakland. He was the team's Opening Day starter and is the only non-rookie in Oakland's rotation. He's pitched extremely well in '09, having allowed more than three ERs just once in 13 starts this season. However, he's just 5-5 (3.33 ERA) on the year with the A's going 6-7 in those 13 starts. Clayton Kershaw goes for LA and he's a talented young lefty as well. He's yet to develop any real consistency but big things are expected once Kershaw finds his rhythm. His last start was evidence of his inconsistency. He threw 83 pitches over just 2.2 innings (allowed three ERs, five hits and four walks) in the second-shortest of his 33 big league starts. Kershaw found himself in a bases-loaded, no-out jam after just 12 pitches, and the Padres were able to eke out two runs without a ball leaving the infield. Kershaw got the early hook in a game the Padres won 3-1 last Wednesday. Kershaw is 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 starts this year but while his ERA is 6.75 in six road starts, it's 2.25 in six home starts (team is 3-3). LA's home dominance matches up well vs Oakland's road woes very well and with two lefties on the mound, let's bring up each team's record against left-handers. The A's were just 10-18 on the road vs lefties last year (3.1 RPG) and are just 8-14 overall vs lefties this year (3.4 RPG), including 4-6 on the road. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 14-6 at home vs lefties in '09, averaging 5.8 RPG. Let's also note that the A's have opened interleague play 1-5 this year, so let's not get too concerned over LA's poor interleague mark the past three seasons. Bailout Blowout 7* LA Dodgers.