6-20-09

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns
9*sea
8*nym Und
5*cin

[Mr. IWS]

Root

CC---------------------------Milwaukee
Mill---------------------------Toronto
Billionaire-------------------Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* Daytime Dominator

My 20* Daytime Dominator is on the NY Mets at 4:10 ET.

Johan Santana first started making news in 2002, going 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA in 27 appearances (14 starts). His career in Minnesota lasted through 2007, with him winning Cy Young awards in both 2004 (20-6 with a 2.61 ERA / 265-54 K-W ratio) and 2006 (19-6 with a 2.77 ERA / 245-47 ratio). He came to the Mets in 2008 and it was "business as usual," going 16-7 with 2.53 ERA (206-63 ratio), as the Mets went 22-12 in his starts. All was just fine in 2009, as Santana was his "usual self" through the first two months of the season, posting a 7-2 mark with a 1.77 ERA through his first 10 starts, striking out 86 in 66 innings. Then came the month of June. He lost 3-1 at Pittsburgh on June 2 and then in his two most recent starts, was unrecognizable. In a June 9 start vs the Marlins, he got the win but allowed eight hits (four HRs!) and five ERs in seven innings. That was a Cy Young-effort compared to his start last Sunday at Yankee Stadium, where Santana was chased after three innings of a 15-0 loss, allowing nine hits (just one HR) and nine ERs over three innings. However, let's give hinm a break. He's been terrific here at Citi Field (he's 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in seven starts with a 53-11 ratio / Mets are 5-2). The Mets beat the Rays 5-3 last night and while New York has won back-to-back games just once since May 30, the Mets have pulled to within two games of the slumping Phillies in the NL East. The Mets take on Tampa's James Shields this afternoon and they have won 13 of their last 18 at their new ballpark. Shields was 12-8 (3.85 ERA) in 2007 and 14-8 (3.56 ERA) last year. He has however, been way more effective at home, with the Rays going 24-11 in his Tropicana Field starts those two seasons, while going only 14-16 in his road starts. He'll take a 5-5 mark into this game (3.52 ERA with the Rays going 6-8) and not much has changed with his road/home dichotomy. He's got a 3.07 home ERA, going 4-2 in eight starts (Rays are 5-3) but a 4.15 road ERA in six starts (he's 1-3 and the Rays, 1-5). The Rays have hardly been consistent recently, with winning streaks of four and six games plus two, three-game losing streaks, since dropping five in a row from May 24-28. They remain a disappointing 14-22 on the road this year and the Mets are now 19-11 at home in Citi Field. The 'old Santana' returns in this one.

Daytime Dominator 20* NY Mets.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

10 Dime Cubs Run Line - Ted Lilly comes into this one after picking up his 10th quality start in his last outing, against the Twins. The southpaw was imprssive in his domination of Minnesota, as he limited it to just two runs on nine hits over 7-2/3 innings, yet he missed on the win. He'll be extremely hungry to get that victory tonight. Lilly is 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in six home starts, while he's lasted six innings in each of those games. His strikeour-to-walk ratio is also a dandy, as he's struck out 38 at home while walking five over 42-2/3 innings, including his last start, in which he didn't walk a single batter. Going back to his days in the American League, he is 4-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 career games versus the Indians. Whether or not that matters remains to be seen, but tonight, as a Cub, he'll dominate once again.

10 Dime Red Sox Run Line - Ace Josh Beckett's run of seven straight quality starts came to an abrupt end in his last outing, as Philadelphia pounded out 11 hits and seven runs - six of them earned - in six frames. Good news, aside fromt he fact he'll want to avenge that loss, is he's 3-0 with a 3.55 ERA in six Fenway starts this season. Plus, opponents are hitting a slim .245 against him. This is good spot for him, against the Braves, as he's posted a career 2.45 ERA against them. And while he's limiting them to minimal damage, I expect the Red Sox lineup to light up their former teammate, Derek Lowe, who was tagged for seven earned runs and who lasted just 2-1/3 innings against the Orioles in his last start. Play the BoSox tonight.

10 Dime Orioles - This kid Brad Bergesen isn't too shabby. I know I've been riding the Phillies' young bucks when it's their turn to toes the slab, including J.A. Happ, but the Baltimore right-hander comes in after tossing his first career complete game, as he picked up his fourth win of the season by taking care of the Braves with ease. Bergesen tossed 112 pitches, gave up two earned runs on five hits and struck out three. My boy Happ has struggled inhis previous two starts (against the Mets and Red Sox), going 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA. Batters are hitting .302 against him in those two games, and I expect the Orioles to come in swinging tonight.

FREE - Mets