6-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney

Thursday ...
20 DIME MILWAUKEE BREWERS (WITH Burns and Baker) - Analysis due back by Noon eastern



5 DIME L.A. DODGERS (WITH Billingsley) -



5 DIME TAMPA BAY RAYS (WITH Sonnanstine and Bastardo) -

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2009

5* Red Sox (918) at Nationals: The Washington Nationals have been rotten on defense (a league-high 64 errors) and a league-high 16 blown saves. They may have garnered some attention last week by taking two of three from the Yankees and Jays, but this is an awful team. We saw that in the opener of this series with an 11-3 Boston rout, feasting on the terrible Washington pen. The first-place Red Sox have a deep pen and are the best team in the AL. John Smoltz may make just his first start here, but I am not concerned with that, as the Sox pen is so strong. Justin Masterson, Okajima, Saito, DelCarmen and Papelbon could combined for 6-7 innings, if needed. Washington started the season 12-24 at home and starter Jordan Zimmermann allows more hits than innings pitched. In fact, the Nationals are 1-6 his last 7 starts, yet he is getting some respect with this number. I don't see it. Play the Red Sox


Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2009

5* NY Yankees (921) at Braves: Atlanta is a weak offensive club, ranked 21st in runs scored in baseball. This NY offense may have been in a rut the last week, but let's no kid ourselves: This is a deep and talented offensive lineup that will hit. Fourth place Atlanta is a .500 team at home, yet opened as a favorite here. The Yankees catch a break facing a struggling Atlanta pitcher Derek Lowe, who is 36 years old. His last three starts he has been awful with a 7.47 ERA. In face, despite having the reputation as an ace, especially after a hot April, the Braves are 1-4 his last five starts. NY lefty Andy Pettitte has been on a quiet role, 2-1 his last three starts with only four walks. The old veteran has been sharp with 17 strikeouts in those last 18 innings. In fact, all time he is 5-1 against Atlanta with a 3.13 ERA. Lowe may have pitched well against NY in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, but he still has a 6.06 ERA in 102 career innings against NY. Play the Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* MLB O/U GAME OF THE NIGHT! (80% CLUB STAT)

Pick # 1 Cincinnati Reds/ Toronto Blue Jays Over 8.5 -115

[Mr. IWS]

Drew Gordon
Today's Games... 1. 100,000? Rays
2. 50,000? Reds

1. Rays- Solid spot to back the Rays, as they look for redemption against their former World Series foe tonight at the Trop. There's a couple strong reasons to like Tampa Bay here, but let's start with the most obvious - the pitching match up.

Although rookie southpaw Antonio Bastardo was impressive in his debut, its gone all downhill from there. He's gotten tagged for 8 runs over his last 8 innings as a starter, and has looked every part a wet-behind-the-ears rookie in the process. He was better in his last start, lasting a career-high 7 innings, but things are going to be a lot tougher against a very good Rays offense tonight.

Speaking of the Rays offense, there's almost no comparison between the two clubs, at least in the short-term. The Phillies have struggled mightily at the plate in losing 9 of their last 11 games, and yesterday was a perfect example: 1 run on just 4 hits, wasting an excellent effort by Joe Blanton. The Rays on the other hand, have been great, batting .291 as a team over their last 10, and while they don't particularly hit lefties well at home, they still average 5.0 runs overall against them on the season.

The final piece of the puzzle is Andy Sonnanstine, who's flourished at the Trop, going 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA there this season. He's been terrible on the road (1-7, 8.22 ERA), but put him in friendly surroundings and he's been a totally different pitcher. He's allowed a grand total of 5 runs over his last 14 innings at home (two starts), and quite frankly, the Phillies offense is anything but dangerous right now.

Finally, not only are the Phillies just 2-6 in their last 8 meetings in Tampa, but the Rays have been excellent following a win (9-3 L12 in that spot) AND have been rock-solid as a favorite (10-4 L14 games as a fav)... So, underestimate the Rays at your own risk here! One final note, the Phillies pen is in total disarray, posting a disgusting 8.12 ERA over their L3 games, and while they're expected to activate Brad Lidge tonight, he's been anything but consistent this season. Rays roll at the Trop, getting a little redemption in the process!

Take the Rays behind Sonnanstine over the Phillies and Bastardo as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Reds- Nice spot to grab a little plus money behind the Reds and "road warrior" Johnny Cueto in this one. Cincy's stud righty is having a solid season, but he's been especially good on the highway, going 5-2 with a lockdown 1.53 ERA! True, he got roughed up at home in his last start by the White Sox, but that was after tossing 4 straight quality road starts, so let's cut him some slack! Look for Cueto to have a solid bounce back effort tonight.

Opposing Cueto is the Blue Jays rookie lefty Brett Cecil, who has been up-and-down this season. True, he looked good in his return to the Majors, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits over 7 innings at the Nationals, but c'mon guys, a lot of pitchers look good against the sorry-ass Nats! Cecil will have very little room for error vs Cueto, who's been a virtual lock for a quality effort every time he pitches on the road. That brings me to my next point...

Of course, we give the edge at the plate to the Blue Jays, who've had a far more potent offense than the Reds. But before you go unloading on Toronto, consider that the Reds do prefer to hit lefties over righties, batting .251 against southpaws as compared to just .240 against righties. Not only that, but Cincy is a solid 5-3 against lefty starters on the road. Cueto will have his work cut out for him against this Toronto offense, but make no mistake, the Reds will test Cecil early and often.

Bottom line, the Reds are desperate for a win, and Johnny Cueto is the man to go and get it for them, pitching where he's at his best - on the highway! Look for the Reds to come out sharp, as they try and avoid the sweep, and there's nothing like facing a vulnerable young lefty to help their cause. In the end, Cueto throws some cold water on the Blue Jays red-hot offense Thursday night!

Take the Reds behind Cueto over the Blue Jays and Cecil in this MLB match up

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

1000? - NY Yankees w/Pettitte over Lowe

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

No doubt the Red Sox know what they are doing starting John Smoltz tonight against Washington, as Smoltzie has owned the Nats from his long tenure in the senior circut, but I am not so sure Smoltz will be on target in this start tonight.

Boston has won 4 straight, and I feel they are about due for a loss in this spot, as Washington has been playing some competitive baseball, and starter Jordan Zimmerman has allowed just 4 runs over his last 17 innings of work but is 0-1 in those 3 starts.

Zimmerman deserves some support, and tonight against a pitched that hasn't started in almost a year, he will get that support.

Take the Nationals to spring the upset.

500? - Washington w/Zimmerman over Smoltz

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Trace Adams PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN - 500* - Baltimore w/Hill over West Baltimore has been cooled off, as the O's had come to Florida winners of 5 in a row, and now they have lost the first 2 of their 3 game set with the suddenly hot Marlins who are on a 4 game win streak.

I like Baltimore to salvage the series with the win tonight, as starter Rich Hill looked very solid in his last effort, a 7 inning, 2 run win at Philadelphia. Hill is 3-1 this season, and all 3 of the wins have come on the road, so why not make it 4-1 after tonight's start?

Sean West has struggled against the AL East, as he is 1-1 in 2 starts against Toronto, and New York, but he has allowed 9 runs in just 10 innings of work.

Baltimore avoids the sweep in this one.

PAY-AFTER-YOU-WIN
500? - Baltimore w/Hill over West

???NOTE: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!???

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
toronto/playmaker

[Mr. IWS]

IC

4 Unit Play. Take Washington Mystics -3.5 over Phoenix Mercury (Thursday @ 7pm est).

4 Unit Play. Take the Cincy Reds Under 8.5 @ Toronto Blue Jays (7pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Chris James Sports

2* Chicago Cubs -112

[Mr. IWS]

The Baseball Prophet

POD - Toronto Blue Jays -125

[Mr. IWS]

Jamie Tursini

St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets +110

As dominating as C.Carpenter has been I just don't think he should be the road favorite vs J.Santana.At home Santana is 5-2 with an ERA of 2.18 having allowed only 39 hits in 53.2 innings while striking out 56! Combine Santana with the struggles that the Cardinals have vs lefties. Who bat only .220 averaging only 2.75 runs on the road per 9 innings. And this is just a "live home dog" well worth taking.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

20* Det
20* KC

100* "steam" - Boston

[Mr. IWS]

Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #1


METS PICKEM FOR 100 DIME SELECTION
WILL BACK SANTANA HERE AS HE WILL GET HIS 9TH VICTORY FOR THE YEAR. HE IS 5-2 AT HOME AND 1-0 LIFETIME AGAINST THE CARDS. CARPENTER IS 1-3 LIFETIME AGAINST THE METS AND WILL LOSE TODAY.

Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #2


YANKEES PICKEM FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION
PETTITE WILL GET HIS 8TH WIN OF THE YEAR. HE IS 5-1 LIFETIME AGAINST THE BRAVES AND 4-1 ON THE ROAD THIS YEAR. LOWE IS 8-10 LIFETIME AGAINST THE YANKS AND IS 1-2 WITH AN ERA 7.80 THE LAST THREE STARTS. ALL YANKS HERE.

Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #3
RANGERS PICKEM FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION
FELDMAN KEEPS ROLLING ALONG. 5-2 SO FAR THIS YEAR. HIS TEAM IS 7-4 IN HIS ELEVEN STARTS AND HE IS 4-1 ON THE ROAD. GARLAND IS ONLY 4-7 SO FAR THIS YEAR, 5-8 LIFETIME AGAINST TEXAS AND 2-4 AT HOME THIS YEAR. TEXAS GETS THE WIN

[Mr. IWS]

KB HOOPS

5* Whitesoxs +136 **POD**
5* Kansas City +106
5* San Diego +168
5* Milwaukee +120
5* Washington +110
5* Pittsburgh +149

[Mr. IWS]

Maddux confirmed picks
#906 - MLB - 3 units on Chicago White Sox +135
#908 - MLB - 3 units on Houston -115
#916 - MLB - 3 units on Pittsburgh +147
#920 - MLB - 3 units on Tampa Bay -135
#926 - MLB - 3 units on Arizona -101

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
15* on Kansas City Royals +106

The Royals are the play over the Astros Thursday afternoon. Houston starter, Brain Moehler, has been a disaster at home this season. In 5 home starts, he is 0-3 with a 9.13 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. The Royals throw Brain Bannister, and despite a so-so performance on the road this season, he has pretty good numbers. He is 5-4 on the year, with a 3.77 ERA, including a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Houston is already down 0-2 in this 3 game series, and the Royals should complete the sweep tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays
20* on Reds/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5

The Under in the Reds/Blue Jays game today is the strongest play on the board, mostly due to the pitching match up between Johnny Cueto and Brett Cecil. Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season, earning a 2.55 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 14 starts. He's been simply dominant on the road this year, allowing only 9 earned runs in 53 innings pitched, a 1.53 ERA. Toronto starter, Brett Cecil, only has 2 starts at home this season, but has given up just 4 earned runs in 12 innings pitched, a 3.00 ERA. As long as both starting pitchers can throw near their potential, this game easily stays under the total, as both teams have very solid bullpens.

[Mr. IWS]

JEFFERSON-SPORTS

METS UNDER 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Salinas Baseball
Thursday, June 25, 2009
24*
Redsox {J.Smoltz} (-120) over Nationals {J.Zimmermann}
7:05 PM -- Nationals Park
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 90.
25*
Bluejays {B.Cecil} (-125) over Reds {J.Cueto}
7:07 PM -- Rogers Centre
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.
23*
Ny Yankees {A.Pettitte} (-110) over Braves {D.Lowe}
7:10 PM -- Turner Field

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers
1. Cubs
2. Phil/Rays over

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferrrrringo

Take Boston (-120) over Washington

Take L.A. Dodgers (-145) over Chicago White Sox


Today's Totals

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 N.Y. Yankees at Atlanta

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Cincinnati at Toronto

Take 'Under' 9.5 Chicago Cubs at Detroit

Take ‘Over’ 9.0 L.A. Dodgers at Chicago White Sox

Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Boston at Washington

Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Baltimore at Florida

Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Kansas City at Houston

Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

06/25/09
11:47 AM Smart Money MLB Wiseguys just hit #918 Washington.


06/25/09
11:55 AM Smart Money MLB Sharps backing the UNDER in #901 St. Louis.


06/25/09
12:25 PM Smart Money MLB Sharps just hit #910 Milwaukee.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

MLB
1:10 St. Louis Cards
2:05 LA Dodgers
2:05 KC Royals
7:05 Clev Indians (KEY BEST BET)
7:05 Bost. Redsox
7:10 Atl. Braves

[Mr. IWS]

Gerry Andino

20* MLB Texas -110(100 Dime BIG TICKET)
20* MLB Toronto -125
10* MLB KC over 9
10* MLB Mets under 7
10* MLB Boston -125
10* MLB Yankees over 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp

Florida -115

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

HoopsEdge

Phoenix +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Thursday's Lineup


60 Dime ---- INDIANS (With Lee and Ohlendorf as listed pitchers)



10 Dime ---- RANGERS (With Feldman as listed pitcher)



INDIANS (With Lee and Ohlendorf) --- Let me get this straight... we have Cliff Lee facing Ross Ohlendorf and we're only giving -155 or -160 on the money line? I couldn't have asked for a "bettor" day (pun intended). When I first saw this pitching matchup, I thought surely we'd have to go with the run line (because we don't ask our clients to play more than -160 on a selection) as I expected this number to come out around -185 or -190. To get this price is a steal, and just so you know, I WOULD have played this game on the run line... that's how confident I am in Cliff Lee shutting down the Pirates for six or seven innings, maybe more, tonight.



First, let's look at Lee before I get to Ohlendorf. Cliff Lee is a stud; a lefty stud. The guy was absolutely phenomenal last season and despite a slow start to this year, he's back on track to post similar numbers to what we saw in 2008. Please do not, under any circumstances, let his 4-6 record scare you. I'm not one who gets all caught up in wins and losses when it comes to starting pitchers because I don't believe that's a true gauge of his value. You have to look much deeper than W/L record to figure out if a pitcher is a quality player and just had bad run support or if his W/L record really is indicative of the type of player he really is. ERA, WHIP, K:BB ratio, etc. Those numbers, to me, are a much better indicator.



Lee's season ERA is 2.94, but you'd never know it looking at his record. However, a deeper look into his W/L record finds his last three losses weren't really because he pitched poorly, but more a matter of his offense completely falling apart. 6 innings and 3 ERs in a 3-1 loss to the Yankees; 8 innings and 1 ER in a 1-0 loss to the Tigers; 7 innings and 3 ERs in a 3-1 loss to the Tigers. That doesn't even count his last outing where he cruised for 7 innings vs. the Cubs, allowing just 3 ERs (1 ER through 6 innings) but watching his bullpen implode in the 8th and 9th and instead of earning a win, he suffered a no decision. That's just not normal baseball and I'm calling for things to turn around for Lee, starting tonight.



The best way for Lee to ensure a win this evening is to go as deep into the game as he possibly can. If you look at his last three wins, Lee has gone 9 innings, 8 innings and 7 innings and his pitch count never rose above 113. In fact, in his 9 inning, complete game win over St. Louis Lee pitched just 93 pitches, striking out 6 and allowing just three hits. With Pittsburgh not being a disciplined team at the plate, I don't expect Lee to go too deep into any count with any hitter. That's going to keep his pitch count down and keep him in the game longer.



As for Ohlendorf, well let me just say he's a trainwreck. Ohlendorf was a career relief pitcher with the Yankees and Pirates over the last two years before Pittsburgh decided to promote him to the rotation in 2009. Since he's become a starter, Ohlendorf's ERA is 4.94 but his record (6-6) is two wins better than Lee's. Part of the reason for Ohlendorf's high ERA is the fact he doesn't quite have the stamina to go deep into games. In fact, just once this year has he thrown more than 97 pitches and he averages less than 6 innings per start. That still doesn't take away from the fact he's allowing at least 3 ERs per contest or the fact he's allowed five or more in 3 of his last 7 starts.



After a 10-6 thrashing of the Indians last night, I can't believe the Pirates have it in them to score more than a few runs tonight. Cleveland should be able to get to Ohlendorf early and often, giving Lee more than enough run support. The Indians are 4-1 in their last five road starts when listed as a favorite of over -150 and 15-5 in Lee's last 20 Interleague starts. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 5-23 in their last 28 (1-8 in their last 9) Interleague games vs. a lefty and 0-5 in their last five games as a dog. This game is over by the 6th or 7th inning as the Indians rout the Pirates 7-2.



RANGERS (With Feldman as listed pitcher) For starters, Texas has taken six of the last seven from Arizona dating back to the 2000 season of Interleague play. On top of that, I just like Scott Feldman and I don't trust Arizona's offense to get on top of his fastball. Yes, I realize Feldman's ERA has crept above 4 for the first time since May 17th when it was 4.04. Two of Feldman's last three starts have been his two worst of the year, allowing four ERs to Toronto and five ERs to San Francisco in his last start. He did, however, shut down the Dodgers for five innings in between those two games, so it's not like he's lost it completely. He's run into a little hard luck... but it's nothing a great performance tonight can't cure. His ERA is still respectable and he's only walked one batter in his last two starts, helping his WHIP to improve while keeping runners off base.



To be honest, I don't care if Jon Garland starts tonight for Arizona or not because I don't think it's going to matter. As long as Dan Haren isn't the starting pitcher (which I know he's not going to be), I feel the Rangers are capable of winning this game. Texas' bats haven't come alive yet in the desert and are way overdue... and I believe tonight is the night we see them light up the Phoenix sky. The Rangers aer 12-3 in their last 15 games vs. a losing team and 4-0 in Feldman's last four starts vs. a team with a losing record. Like I said, I don't care who really throws tonight for Arizona because I'm counting on a Texas win regardless. Play the Rangers as your bonus play of the day.

[Mr. IWS]

EXPERT: David M@linsky
TITLE: 6* Top of the Ticket - Night
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #922 ATLANTA/NY YANKEES UNDER

The way that the ball has carried at new Yankee Stadium has obviously created some issues in terms of games being played there. Tonight we get to take advantage of those factors in a different direction, as both the New York offense, and starting pitcher Andy Pettitte, getting priced improperly here because of some of those performances in the Bronx.

In their first road trip in June, the Yankees scored eight runs in three games at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. They opened this trip with just 11 runs in four games prior to last night, and take that 8-4 win with a grain of salt – they did not score in three innings against Kenshin Kawakami, who had to leave early, and piled up those runs against the bottom of the Atlanta bullpen. Away from home this is only a good, no a great, offense, and they are going to have their hands full against Derek Lowe, who rebounded from a rare bad outing at Baltimore to pitch solidly in a road loss to Boston his last time out. Lowe has only allowed three home runs in 92.1 innings this season, and if you keep the Yankees from hitting the ball out of the park, this offense has trouble finding other ways to score.

Meanwhile Andy Pettitte’s 4.26 ERA does not paint the proper portrait here. Pettitte like all others has his issues with the new ballpark, where he has worked to a 5.77 tune, allowing nine home runs in 48.1 innings. But on the road he has been a razor-sharp 2.35, allowing only two homers in 38.1 frames, and his first outing of this trip was a sparker at Florida, with only one run on three hits over seven innings, a span in which he struck out seven while not walking a single batter. In terms of how the value shapes up, his six road starts have played Under to a 5-1 tune, with those games finishing a collective 19 runs below the Total, and with the only Over coming by just a half run.

Lowe and Pettitte are not the full story here – because of the way that this series has flowed, all key bullpen arms are available here; while Mariano Rivera did go 1.1 innings last night, it only required 19 pitches. That means that big innings are not easy to come by at any point vs. starters that do not allow homers or issue many walks, and solid late-inning arms that bring the same traits. With the 8.5’s available out there at no juice, or even a plus price in some key precincts, it makes it even easier to step up here.

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman Sports

4* PHILLIES
3* YANKEES
3* FLORIDA

WNBA

3* PHOENIX

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner

3* Tampa Bay Rays
2* Yanks

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe:

06/25/2009

MLB Baseball
Nationals +105 oer Red Sox
Zimermann/Smoltz

[Mr. IWS]

Dominic Fazzini Thursday's plays 20 Dime -- Rangers (Feldman) over DIAMONDBACKS (Garland)
5 Dime -- Royals (Bannister) over ASTROS (Moehler)

RANGERS
NOTE: List only Feldman and Garland as starting pitchers

The Rangers’ offense has been slumping, but an appointment with Jon Garland might be just what Texas needs to get well again.

Garland (4-7, 4.99 ERA) pitched seven shutout innings Friday against Seattle, but he is 5-8 with a 6.39 ERA in his career vs. the Rangers. With the Angels last season, Garland gave up 20 earned runs in 15 1/3 over three starts against Texas, and Chris Davis has two homers in five at-bats vs. Garland.

And the veteran right-hander, who hasn’t won since May 19, has been horrendous at Chase Field this year, at 2-4 with a 7.82 ERA, compared to having a 2.60 ERA in seven road starts.

Texas will start right-hander Scott Feldman (5-2, 4.02), who allowed a season-high five runs in six innings Friday at San Francisco in his last start. But after posting a 7.71 ERA in April, his ERA is 3.30 since then. And Feldman’s ERA as a starter is 3.18 after posting a 12.15 ERA in three relief appearances.

The Rangers are 5-1 in Feldman’s last six road starts, and 4-0 in his last four starts vs. teams with losing records. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Garland’s last six starts. And Arizona has lost 10 of its last 14 to the Rangers. Look for those trends to continue. Take Texas to gain the victory.

ROYALS
NOTE: List only Bannister and Moehler as starting pitchers

Brian Bannister started the season in the minors, but he has been pretty solid since being recalled by the Royals in late April.

Bannister (5-4, 3.89 ERA) had a couple of rough outings around the beginning of June, but has picked it up over his last three starts, with a 1-1 record and 1.29 ERA in 21 innings.

The K.C. right-hander will be opposed today by Astros right-hander Brian Moehler (4-4, 6.43), who has been terrible as of late. Moehler is 2-1 in his last three starts, but his ERA is 6.60 over 15 innings.

Bannister has shined brightly in day games, at 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings. And Moehler has been beyond bad at home (0-3, 9.13) and in day games (2-2, 8.35).

The Royals are 5-14 in their last 19 road games, but they are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague road games. And the Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 interleague games. Go with Kansas City.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

20* Balt
20* Tor
50* Philly
50* NYY/Atl over
100* Tex