6-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

EXPERT: The Prezz
TITLE: 8* SAT BEST BET BLOWOUT **HUGE 12-0 RUN**
REASON FOR PICK:

8* EARLY PITCH BEST BET BLOWOUT
(905) MINNESOTA (SLOWEY) at (906) ST LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) 12:10 PM

Kevin Slowey left Friday's game after the sixth inning with tightness in his ribs. All reports, however, have Slowey felling fine with eight days between starts. Slowey threw a bullpen session Thursday and pronounced himself perfectly fit. The Twins right-hander has put a string of quality starts together that deserve recognition. He's easily the ace of a good Twins staff and he's done it a big differently than his career peripherals would have projected. Slowey hadn't walked more than two in any start this year, but tied a career high with four walks Friday against Houston while pitching through a stiff right side. His K/BB is still 4.8 with a BB/9 of just 1.5 and on extra days' rest this season, the righty is over-the-top good with a 5-0 record and 2.93 ERA. His despite the four walks in his last outing, his pinpoint control is even getting better, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s of 1.5/1.4/1.1, and his K/9 is an acceptable 6.3. As a fly ball pitcher, 47% FB%, he is susceptible to the longball, 12 home runs allowed in 72.2 innings, but his strong command limits the damage and pitching in new Busch fits his style perfectly.

Cards starter Todd Wellemeyer has only tossed one quality start in his last nine starts, and while he's been a victim of some bad luck, his velocity is down and his ability to get swings and misses is at a career low. A diluted New York Mets lineup slapped the right-hander for five runs, 10 hits and four walks in a 6-4 victory during his last start at pitcher friendly Citi Field. Wellemeyer was in trouble in almost all of his 5 2/3 innings, and though he often kept the Mets to a minimum — one run here, another there — he never looked comfortable. In his career Wellemeyer has been much better away from Busch, so a start today against a terrific group of left-handed bats makes the Cards starter a valued play-against. Wellemeyer has a near 9.00 ERA against left-handed hitters and 10.00 ERA with runners on base. His 22.50 ERA with runners in scoring position is explained by his drop in velocity and inability to create swings and misses.

The Twins are 16-5 against the money line versus a National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons and 24-9 overall against the money line in an inter-league games.

The favorable opening line (Twins -110) offers far too much value to pass up. Look for a second straight easy victory by the Twins and their ace today.

[Mr. IWS]

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009

PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL WINNER
Minnesota w/Slowey -115 1:10 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers
901 San Francisco +130

920 Houston Over 9.5 -110 - Big Ticket

[Mr. IWS]

Balfe

Phillies -120 over Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

EZWINNERS


***** 3 STAR SELECTION *****

Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros

Sport: MLB

Time: 6:05PM CST

Risk/Win: $345 to win $300

(919) Detroit Tigers -$115

(Action)

(Line from BetJamaica)


***** 2 STAR SELECTION *****

Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

Sport: MLB

Time: 3:05PM CST

Risk/Win: $200 to win $244

(907) Chicago Cubs +$122

(Action)

(Line from BetJamaica)


***** 1 STAR SELECTION *****

Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009

Game: San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers

Sport: MLB

Time: 7:05PM CST

Risk/Win: $100 to win $140

(925) San Diego Padres +$140

(Action)

[Mr. IWS]

1 OF WUNDERDOG MLB RUN LINE PLAYS

Game: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis +1.5 runs -160 (runline)

The Minnesota Twins will go with Kevin Slowey this afternoon against the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer. Solwey has a deck full of aces so far as he is 10-2 on the season despite an average ERA of 4.04. It is because the Twins have scored 5+ runs in 70% of his starts, which is considerably above what this team has done on the season. Slowey has not been good on the road, where despite the run support, the Twins are 1-3 in his last four road starts - pitching to a 5.06 ERA. The Twins have struggled to a 14-22 mark on the road this season, and when favored, are just 2-9. The Cards have struck big in interleague play against right-hand pitching where they stand 37-15 over their last 52 in this situation. Getting a run and a half against a team that has struggled on the road and a pitcher with misleading numbers, against a team cashing big in this spot has a ton of value. That puts me on the runline with the Cards.

[Mr. IWS]

The Consensus Group
BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS WINNER
Date: Saturday, June 27, 2009

Seattle

[Mr. IWS]

Gamehunter
2009 Record: 306-299, +55.7024 Casanovas
Friday: 4-5, -1.280 units

Better win today...tomorrow is Sunday! Weather is finally nice. Have a good day!


PHILADELPHIA -114 (1.75 UNITS)

ST. LOUIS +110 (2 UNITS)

ARIZONA +121 (1.75 UNITS)

HOUSTON +105 (1.75 UNITS)

OVER WASH/BALT 10 RUNS (-110) (1.75 UNITS)

CINCINNATI +130 (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER COL/OAK 8.5 RUNS +102 (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER SD/TEX 10.5 RUNS (+115) (1.5 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

The Millionaires Club

Texas

[Mr. IWS]

M@linksy

6* Angels
5* over Tor/Phil
4* Baltimore R/L

[Mr. IWS]

Yankee Capper
Saturday, June 27th


MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
Saturday, June 27th * 7:05pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Smash your book today! Guaranteed Grand Slam Plays Win or they're FREE!
Guaranteed Grand Slam Plays 5-1 Yesterday!
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -140

[Mr. IWS]

The Millionaires Club

Twins

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Merril

5 units angels
4 units giants over

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S EARLY MLB BEST BET WINNER!

Pick # 1 Minnesota Twins / St Louis Cardinals Under 9.0 -120

[Mr. IWS]

maddux bb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#908 - MLB - 3 units on Chicago White Sox -133
#910 - MLB - 3 units on Atlanta -131
#920 - MLB - 3 units on Houston +105

[Mr. IWS]

IndianCowboy

Sport: MLB Baseball

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks - Saturday June 27, 2009 4:10 pm

Pick: 4 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 9.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)

4 Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 between LA Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Saturday @ 4:10pm est). I love riding John Lackey when he comes to play after a loss and today is no different. Lackey lost to the Dodgers in his last start which was also a non-quality start as he gave up 4 runs in 8 innings and he looks to get back on track against the Dbacks. He has yet to hav back to back nonquality starts this year and consequently riding him on the road here makes sense. Davis pitched extremely well in his last outing as he gave up just 1 run in 7 inning at Seattle. But, despite pitching well, Davis is 0-1-2 in his last 3 starts as he looks for the "W" which has alluded him overall this year as he is 3-8 but with a solid 3.34 era. I look for both Davis and Lackey to pitch well today as each looks for a win and are on the bounce-back as the line of 9.5 is a bit high in my opinion for this contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Phillies Confirmed

50 Dime
Interleague
Oddsmaker Error

Phillies vs. Blue Jays
(1:05 pm start)

Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
50 Dime ---- PHILLIES (With Happ and Mills as listed pitchers)

PHILLIES --- A complete pitching mismatch and I'm all over it. This game is really the only game on the board today worth playing, and it starts early so don't get cheated. The Phillies are so overdue for a win it's not even funny, and with their dominant road record this season I have no problem asking you to step out a little bit this afternoon. Folks, these guys aren't the defending World Series champs for nothing, and every losing streak must come to an end. If you compare how well they've played on the road to what they've done at home, it's no contest. This team is still the best in baseball on the road, and facing a guy like Brad Mills today, this win is going to be all too easy.

Brad Mills is 5-11, 185 soaking wet and is making his second start of the season against a lineup like Philly... you know they are asking for trouble. What's more, the only start of his career came last week vs. this same Philly team and it was disastrous. Though he didn't earn a loss, he did surrender six hits and four earned runs (four walks) in just three and two-thirds innings. The Blue Jays did eventually end up winning the game (8-7) but it definitely had nothing to do with Mills' performance. You honestly can't expect a rookie pitcher like Mills to battle the defending champs for the second straight time and come out on top. It didn't happen the first time around and it's not going to happen today.

As for Philadelphia, they definitely left their bats in Philly as evidenced by one run in 9 innings vs. Toronto Friday night. Cole Hamels clearly didn't have his best outing, yet the Blue Jays didn't really take advantage of it until later in the game. Today, the Jays get to face J.A. Happ and his 3.47 ERA. Though he's never faced the Jays in his career, Happ has done rather well in Interleague games so far this year, holding both the Yankees and Orioles to two earned runs in at least six innings of work. He's not the ace of the staff, but he sure has filled in nicely when the other starters struggle. Happ's biggest problem this year has been control, walking 10 in the last two games, but according to reports there has been a minor tweak to his pitching mechanics that is supposed to help him improve his overall control.

Toronto has won six straight vs. Philly, dating back to last year, and you know how hard it is to keep a team down for long. The Phillies simply won't allow the Jays to continue this streak... not with as much pride as they have. The Phils are 20-7 in their last 27 games as a road favorite and 7-3 in Happ's last ten starts. The Jays are 1-5 in their last six Saturday games and 1-4 in games following another game in which they allowed 2 or fewer runs. Too many factors here in our favor and that's why I'm all over the Phillies to dominate from start to finish.

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan
Saturday's Winner ...


800? RANGERS RUN LINE - 1. The starting pitchers do not matter in this game. 2. The reference to "First Half" is in regards to the first half of the regular season - not the first half (first 5 innings) of the game.

Yes, I am coming right back with the Rangers for the second straight night, as the value is with this rejuvenated bunch. After finishing its series in the desert with the Diamondbacks by securing a 9-8 thriller Thursday night, last night’s blowout went exactly as I described it would.

So with the Padres playing their fifth straight road game in as many nights, and the fact they’ve now lost 18 of their last 25, this should be another beatdown for what is potentially one of the most explosive lineups in the league.

I knew damn well the Rangers found their offense in the desert and sure enough you saw how dialed in that lineup was last night, putting double digits up for us. As I told you last night, we’re dealing with one of the worst teams in the league – both offensively and defensively – so laying the run line in Arlington again shouldn’t be an issue, as I the Rangers blowing things out again.

Last night we pummeled Walter Silva, tonight we’re going to attack Kevin Correia, who is due to get shelled. I know he’s pitched well since June 6, but these Rangers are playing far too good to ignore when they’re swinging sticks.

Correia is 4-5 with a 4.26 ERA this season, and will continue his road woes. The right-hander is 1-3 on the road this season, and has an ERA of 4.56 with a suitcase in hand. I know he looked good against the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine on June 10, but that was during a time L.A. was struggling to put runs on the board. Again, we’re talking about one of the most lethal lineups in the league.

As I said yesterday, Texas led the majors with 901 runs last season, and this year’s team came into this series ranking 15th in the league before putting 12 on the board last night. It has a better record this season, it’s clearly frustrated with the fact it is scoring less than nearly a full run per game and the outbursts the last two nights tell me we’re about to see a nice little run by this team right up to the All-Star Break.

Once the lead is in hand, we’ll be banking on Derek Holland to shut this team down. And while I know the southpaw has struggled tremendously, and is now 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in his last five starts, remember that he’s going up against a Padres team that has a league-worst batting average of .234.

I told you last night I was picking my spots, and tonight is a perfect time for back-to-back blowouts in Arlington. Take the Rangers on the run line as they drill the visiting Padres once again, with no problem whatsoever.

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE TRIPLE DIME PLAY

MLB
Seattle vs. Dodgers
10:10 EST

When the Mariners send King Felix Hernandez to the mound in Los Angeles this evening they will do so knowing the King is 15-3 in his career team starts during the month of June. He is also 5-1 in his last six team starts with a super sharp 1.00 ERA. WIth Dodgers left hander Eric Milton just 5-13 in his last eighteen home team starts, look for Hernandez and the Mariners to come up big here tonight. Seattle with Hernandez versus Milton is our MLB Game of the Week. Play On: Seattle w/Hernandez vs Milton.

[Mr. IWS]

NICK PARSONS BIG EASY UNDERDOG


MLB
Detroit vs. Houston
7:05 EST

Their seven-game winning streak over, the Detroit Tigers now have two games left to reverse a losing trend in NL parks. Another defeat in Houston on Saturday would be their sixth in eight road games in interleague play, and the Astros will be looking for a third consecutive victory as they try to climb back into the crowded NL Central race. After Placido Polanco?s three-run home run gave the Tigers a 4-0 lead in the second inning, ace Justin Verlander and the bullpen faltered as the club?s division lead slipped to four games. It was the Tigers? fifth defeat in their last six road games after they lost series at Pittsburgh and St. Louis earlier this month. They are averaging 3.4 runs in seven games in NL parks; I expect another letdown this evening! Right-hander Alfredo Figaro enjoyed plenty of support in his major league debut last Saturday, getting the victory after allowing two runs in five innings of Detroit?s 9-5 win over Milwaukee. A cousin of Tigers closer Fernando Rodney, Figaro (1-0, 3.60 ERA) is filling the spot of the troubled Dontrelle Willis in the rotation; however I expect him to have trouble today. Houston (34-37) won without a home run Friday, improving to 15-9 since May 31 as Miguel Tejada?s sacrifice fly in the eighth snapped a 4-all tie. The Astros hope right-hander Felipe Paulino 1-4, 6.18) can help their ascent as he comes off the disabled list. The right-hander has a win in relief this year, but he was 0-4 in eight starts before straining his groin earlier this month; however he has been much better at Minute Maid Park, with one loss and a 3.96 ERA in five starts there and I expect him to continue this trend and pitch a gem today! It's interesting to note that Detroit is a sub par 16-17 (-2.2 units) when playing against a team with a losing record while the Astros are a decent 14-13 (+3.4 units) when the total is either 9 or 9 1/2! Great value and situation on the home team today; when taking into consideration all of the above factors I must highly recommend a play on the ASTROS!

[Mr. IWS]

LENNY DEL GENIO IL G.O.Y.

MLB
Anaheim vs. Arizona
4:10 EST

The Angels are on fire right now having outscored their last two opponents 23-6, including a 12-3 win yesterday here in Arizona. Take note that over the last two seasons, they are a perfect 8 for 8 when coming off BB wins by four runs or more. Also, this season they are 11-1 if they had six or more extra base hits last game. This is one of the most dominant teams in IL play overall winning 36 of its last 52 vs. the Senior Circuit. It took a few months for him to work himself back into form, but John Lackey has looked sharp this year with the exception of one bad game vs. Tampa Bay. Angels are 8-5 this season on the road vs. lefties, scoring more than five runs per game, so they should take care of soft tossing Doug Davis, who will have to rely on an Arizona offense that scores under four runs per game at home. LA Angels are our 25* IL Game of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5* Arizona +114 **POD**
5* Cubbies +116
5* 2 team parlay Atlanta/Seattle +205
5* San Diego +150
5* Colorado +127

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferrrringo

Take L.A. Angels (-125) over Arizona

Take St. Louis (-105) over Minnesota

Take N.Y. Yankees (-175) over N.Y. Mets

Take Detroit (-115) over Houston


Today's Totals

Take ‘Under’ 9.0 N.Y. Yankees at N.Y. Mets

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

MLB | Jun 27 '09 (4:10p)

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves:

Atlanta Braves -140

15* on Atlanta Braves -139

Take the Braves with Javier Vazquez on the mound Saturday. Vazquez has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Despite poor run support that has resulted in a5 5-6 record, he has still thrown well. This season he has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in just 99 innings. Over his last three starts, he has been incredible, earning a 1.99 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. He will need some run support on Saturday, but I believe he gets the job done against a Boston team that has not played very well on the road this season (20-18).



-= TOP PLAY =- MLB | Jun 27 '09 (7:05p)

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles:

Baltimore Orioles -1½+110

20* No Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +110

This should be an easy win for the Orioles over the Nationals the way that Jeremy Guthrie has been pitching for Baltimore. Over his last three starts, Guthrie has a 3.26 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Compare that to the Nationals' starter, Shairon Martis, who has struggle this season, particularly on the road where he has a 6.53 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. Baltimore opened up this series last night with an easy 11-1 victory. We can expect similar results tonight.

Take the runline as the moneyline is a little steep.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play. Take New York Liberty +7 over the Indiana Fever (Saturday @ 7pm est). These two teams just hooked up in what is essentially a home and home. The Liberty lost in overtime at home to the Fever and they have that revenge as they head on the road to Indiana. So, a fresh loss on their mind as they look for revenge on the highway. The Liberty have been playing better as they are 4-1 ATS of late and although the Fever have been hot, I love taking teams who come off a loss in a home and home contest as the same principle applies in the NBA for a cover - the team that just loss SU is likely to have an ATS cover in their next game of a home and home. I also look for this game to go over today (comp pick today) as New York likely is an active dog and consequently sends the total over as well. Thus, let's ride the Liberty with a sense of revenge today on the road as they have a decent shot of winning outright, but more importantly, to fall within the spread of seven this evening.

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp

Stan is Betting SAN DIEGO/TEXAS UNDER today 10.5

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

50* LAD under
50* LAA over
30* CINN over
20* SF
20* FL
20* HOU

100* steam - CHW/CHI under