7-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

ebb 3 unit (rare)
Atlanta Braves (-127) over Washington Nationals (3.0 Units) -
We have basically called this Braves game our Game of the Year. The Braves just swept the Phillies at home and throughout that whole series, they were able to hold the Phillies to just 7 runs in 3 games.

With that said, these Braves will have a great deal of confidence coming into today's game. They will be facing their third consecutive lefty and because they average about 2 more runs a game against lefties than they do against righties, we'd expect them to do quite well offensively.

The Nationals are a league's worst 5-20 in the first game of a series and they have to play today on the back of being swept on the road by the Marlins. The only good thing today is the fact that the Nationals have had a day of rest but because they are so horrible in the first game of a series, we don't expect that day off will do them much good.

These Braves are a steal at -127 considering they get to face a lefty, are fighting a team so poor in Game 1's, are off a sweep and facing a team that was swept.

Here's a system for you to gobble on. Road teams off a sweep and facing a team that was swept is [21-14, +9.7 units] if they swept a divisional rival. That issue is a key. If the team they swept was NOT a divisional rival, they would have gone [24-31, -7.7 units]. This is why we know it works... because you toggle one little detail and you wind up with completely different results.

And the reason is kind of simple. It is incredibly tough for a team to sweep their divisional rival... that was why we bet against these Braves yesterday. But for them to do so just proves they are such a great bet now.

Take this game action regardless of pitcher.

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S CFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!

Pick # 1 British Columbia Lions / Saskatchewan Roughriders Under 51.5 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

20 Dime ---- MARLINS

10 Dime ---- TIGERS

FLORIDA --- Much like my third straight 25-dime winner on St. Louis last night, I'm not enthralled by this pitching matchup tonight for either side, but I can't help but ignore how well the Marlins have been playing lately, especially at home, and the fact the Marlins are getting better starting pitching, better bullpen work, and timely hitting. This team has all of a sudden become a contender, again, in the National League East and are locked in a virtual tie with the Phillies on top of the division.

First things first. The Marlins have won eight straight games at home and 13 of their last 16 as the listed favorite while the Pirates have dropped 8 of their last 11 as an underdog. The Pirates are also atrocious away from PNC Park, dropping 26 of their 40 games on the road. Let's also not forget their 1-4 in their last five road games and 0-4 in their last four vs. a right-handed starter. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 12-2 in their last 14 as a home favorite and 8-2 in Volstad's last 10 starts when facing an opponent that allowed five or more runs in its previous game.

Chris Volstad has really settled down since his start in Boston (8 ER in 3.2 IP), tossing 12 innings of 10-hit ball, allowing five earned runs and nine strikeouts. Let's keep in mind, he's still a bit on the young side and he's clearly still working through some mechanical issues, but you can't argue with some of his recent starts. You also can't argue with his career 2.38 ERA in the month of July or the fact that batters are hitting just .228 against him in this month.

Charlie Morton counters tonight for the Pirates, and brings a respectable 4.09 ERA to the hill. What you probably don't know is that he's started against the Marlins three times already in his career, and his record is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, including a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Morton has started only three games this year, but those games were anywhere between 8 and 10 days from one another. That tells me they are only using him when someone gets hurt and the rotation gets out of whack. I may have never pitched in the Major Leagues, but I do know these starters need a little consistency and he's not getting it. June 10th, June 20th and June 28th... those are the dates of his starts this year. Is his arm really ready to start again this soon? We'll see... but I don't think he's going to go any further than the 5th inning tonight... and by that time the game should already be over.


DETROIT --- I'm going to back the Tigers in this spot tonight despite the fact the Twins do play better at home and the Tigers aren't very good on the road. We're getting a really good price and every so often it's worth it to take a shot on a road dog if the matchup seems right. Look, I understand all the trends are stacked against us tonight... the Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11 road games and 2-9 in their last 11 on field turf while the Twins are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, but one of the main reasons I like the Tigers tonight is the fact they are throwing a lefty the Twins have never seen before.

Lucas French has thrown just 3 innings all season, but the lefty hasn't allowed an earned run in those two outings and facing an aggressive Minnesota offense could be exactly what he needs to get ahead in the count early. Kevin Slowey toes the rubber for the Twins tonight, having been shelled in his last outing vs. St. Louis. Slowey lasted just 3 innings, allowing six hits and five earned runs in a 5-3 loss. The bullpen did their job after the third inning, but it was already too late. On paper, it definitely looks like I'm on the wrong side of this contest, but in the end you'll see the Twins have no answer for French and the Detroit Tigers.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Friday July 3, 2009 7:05 pm

Pick: 4 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Under 9 (-110)



4 Unit Play. Take the Under 9 between the Oakland A's @ Cleveland Indians (Friday @ 7:05pm est). This is a good spot for us to take an Under as the A's take on the Indians on the highway. For starters, Cahill, the California native comes off one of his worst starts of his young career (born in '88), as he gave up 7 runs to the Rockies at home as the A's fell short 9-11. Prior to that, this young man did not have a non-quality start in 8 of 9 starts and had his era go up to 4.23 after the Rockies start. I look for Cahill to bounce-back strong on the road as he has done in previous contests on the highway including giving up 0 runs in 5 innings at LA winning as a +149 dog. Huff came off pitching 8 scoreless innings at Pittsburgh where he did not yield a quality run, and he had a let down coming off that start as he gave up 6 runs at home to the Reds as the Indians ended up losing that game 1-8. I look for both of these pitchers to have a quality bounce-back today as the A's are 4-0 to the Under in their last 4 contests as Underdogs and the Under is 6-1 for the Indians in thier last 7 home games.

[Mr. IWS]

John Morrison

System Plays

7/3 Florida [A] Pittsburgh


7/3 Detroit [A] Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Dominic Fazzini

20 Dime -- Mariners (Hernandez) at RED SOX (Wakefield) under

NOTE: List only Hernandez and Wakefield as starting pitchers

Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54 ERA) is probably the hottest pitcher going these days.

The 23-year-old right-hander has allowed just five runs in his last 53 innings, and allowed one unearned run and four hits in eight innings Saturday in a 5-1 win over the Dodgers, striking out nine.

Hernandez has given up two earned runs or less in each of his last seven starts, going 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA.

His mound counterpart today, Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.18) has been pretty impressive himself. The 42-year-old right-hander pitched six scoreless innings Saturday against Atlanta, and went 4-0 with a 3.45 ERA in five June starts.

Wakefield hasn’t faced Seattle yet this year, but was 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts last season.

Hernandez also has had great success against Boston, going 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts, and he has tossed 15 shutout innings in two career starts at Fenway Park, including a one-hitter in 2007.

What does all this mean? It means there’s probably not going to be a whole lot of runs scored today. There’s only one way to go on this game. Take the under

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES

15* Blue Jays/Yankees UNDER 9.5

Take the under in today's early game between the Yankees and Blue Jays. These are two pretty potent offenses, playing in a stadium that has already become notorious for being easy to hit in, but I like these two starters to keep the runs to a minimum. Yankees' starter A.J. Burnett has finally transformed into the pitcher they thought they would get, going 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts. Toronto's starter, Brian Tallet, doesn't have great numbers on the who this year, but he does have a 3.54 ERA on the road this season and a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts.

[Mr. IWS]

Lou Panelli

20* MLB Tampa Bay -140(100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* MLB Dodgers -140
10* MLB Mets over 9.5
10* MLB Florida over 8.5
10* MLB Arizona over 9.5
10* MLB Oakland over 9

[Mr. IWS]

Vic Monte

500* Syndicate - Florida Marlins -150

[Mr. IWS]

Michael Cannon
Friday's Play...
20 Dime –

CARDINALS

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

Friday's Winners ...



200? FLORIDA MARLINS RUN LINE - Volstad over Morton - Nice little three-game streak after a home sweep of the Nationals, and after taking travel-Thursday off, Florida is going to dismantle a Pittsburgh team that was in a marathon of a make-up game yesterday at home against the Mets.



New York appeared to be freefalling earlier this week, and most certainly didn’t need to play a write-in game at PNC Park after a three-game set in Milwaukee, where they were outscored 16-10 and lost two of three. Nevertheless, the makeup of a June 3 rainout undoubtedly took a lot out of the Pirates, who would have rather had their first day off since June 22.



Now they’ll bring a bit of a skid into this one, having lost four of five and nine of 14, and play their 11th straight game in as many days, and 17th in 18 days against a red-hot team that has not only won three in a row, but 12 of 18 since mid-June.



I’m sending Chris Volstad to the hill tonight, and though he had been struggling throughout June, he looked like an entirely different pitcher his last two starts. In Tampa Bay, on Saturday, against the defending American League champs he turned in a blue-collar six innings but ended up with a no-decision. The 22-year-old right-hander surrendered just two runs and scattered five hits while striking out five. And let’s not forget prior to that he won right here at home against the Yankees.



He’s a much better choice than Pittsburgh’s Charlie Morton, who has been battling a nagging left hamstring strain that has limited from making regular starts in the rotation. And because of that injury the Pirates are cautious to push him deep into games. And since he made three starts against the Marlins last year and allowed 10 earned runs over 15 innings, I think I certainly have the edge in this matchup.



Florida will be revved up for this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it sweeps the Bucs too and runs the winning streak to six. With a West Coast trip coming up next week, the Marlins are a team to watch the next three days, beginning with this blowout winner right here.



50? DETROIT TIGERS - LIST French only - This is as close to Major League pitching debut as it gets, so even though Lucas French was called up last Sunday and has worked out of the bullpen twice and tossed a minimal three innings, I’m going to roll with the southpaw at this big price tonight.



The 23-year-old lefty has produced some workmanlike innings for the Tigers’ farm system, as he’s given up just four earned runs on 16 hits over 23 innings, while striking out 26 in his last three starts. Going back even further, French has lasted a minimum of 6-2/3 innings with two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. I’m taking a shot with this pup tonight, as I’ve built a nice little bankroll for the weekend and can afford to take a look at this kid at this price and with this rating.



NOTE: - Don't forget to subscribe to my Tweets on twitter.com, as I tweet along with you during some of the biggest sporting events, or at certain times of the week. I'll answer your questions or simply chat along with you as we watch baseball all summer long.



Then, in no time at all, it'll be time for preseason of the NFL; eventually, on game days, we'll talk football!!! Get the link to my Twitter page on MY HOMEPAGE of this website.

[Mr. IWS]

D_O_C Sports

3-Unit Play Take #902 Chicago Cubs (-1.5RL +110) over Milwaukee Brewers (2:20p.m.)

If the Cubs somehow win the final three games of this important series, no one will then say that Piniella and his Cubbies are lacking the “fire”. It could have you know. I am expecting Carlos Zambrano to be at the top of his game and Jeff Suppan to be very hittable today. It makes me look to the run-line to get a playable price. Possibly the only thing that may go the Brewers way today is Bob Uecker doing his rendition of “Take Me Out To The Ballgame” Probably worth watching. Cubs are on a mission.





3-Unit Play Take #918 New York Yankees (-1.5RL -110) over Toronto Jays (1:05p.m)

3-Unit Play Take #904 Florida Marlins (-1.5RL +110) over Pittsburgh Pirates (6:10p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Salinas
Tony Salinas Baseball
Friday, July 03, 2009
26*
Marlins {C.Volstad} (-160) over Pirates {C.Morton}
6:10 PM -- Dolphin Stadium
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 85.
25*
Braves {K.Kawakami} (-130) over Nationals {R.Detwiler}
6:35 PM -- Nationals Park
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.

[Mr. IWS]

Lou Panelli

20* MLB Tampa Bay -140(100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* MLB Dodgers -140
10* MLB Mets over 9.5
10* MLB Florida over 8.5
10* MLB Arizona over 9.5
10* MLB Oakland over 9

[Mr. IWS]

C-Star Sports



1000 Units Top Play - Florida

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops


5* Cincinnati +108 **POD**
5* Pittsburgh +150
5* Washington +109
5* Detroit +159
5* Baltimore +139

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

Cardinals Big Ticket

M's/Red Sox Under

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

100 Steam TB
100 CWS, ATL under
30 SFG, LAA
20 NYM

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp

TAKE METS/PHILLIES UNDER 10

Double dime

[Mr. IWS]

Gamehunter

washington +124 (1.5 units)

over pitt/fla 8.5 runs (-110) (1.75 units)

cincinnati +120 (1.5 units)

houston +108 (1.75 units)

under tor/yankees 9.5 runs (-108) (1.5 units)

cleveland -114 (2 units)

under det/minn 9 runs +118 (1.5 units)

baltimore +142 (1.5 units)

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | MLB Total Fri, 07/03/09 - 10:05 PM ?"

triple-dime bet 913 LOS / 914 SDP OVER 7.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
*** MLB 3* BEST (TOTAL) BET of the DAY ***

KURODA vs GAUDIN....UNDER 7.5 (-120)
sorry yall only 1 3 star best bet

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | MLB Total Fri, 07/03/09 - 10:05 PM ?"

triple-dime bet 913 LOS / 914 SDP Under 7.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
*** MLB 3* BEST (TOTAL) BET of the DAY ***



KURODA vs GAUDIN....UNDER 7.5 (-120)



Fellas, I went ahead and Uploaded this Selection even before the 2*s, because I know for fact that the Wiseguys have this Bet on their Radar as well...and the Runners should be Betting it UNDER sometime before 1st Pitch...



In fact, some Books have already gone to 7...which I would still bet because it could only turn a Win into a Push and not a Loss...But obviously, the Value would decrease due to the Key Number...



Fortunately, there is more than enough Bettors on the OVER to force many books to keep it at 7.5...But I was really hoping the Outfits wouldn't get involved so we could have possibly gotten this at 8...and maybe dropped a 4* on them...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Janus

3* on Dodgers/Rockies OVER 7.5
This total is set low because neither team has been playing that well offensively, but the starters in this match up make me like the over. San Diego starter, Chad Gaudin has a 5.11 ERA in 12 starts this season, including a 4.76 ERA at the usually-pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Dodgers starter, Hiroki Kuroda, has been solid on the road in 3 starts this season, but has a 4.71 ERA over his last 3 starts. I expect the Dodgers to bounce back on offense with an emotional boost from getting Manny Ramirez back in the lineup and I look at Kuroda to give up a handful of runs to the Padres. Take the over a 7.5 or better if you can get it.

3* on Tampa Bay Rays -135
Rays starter, Scott Kazimir has really struggled this season, but somehow Tampa Bay is still 6-4 over his 10 starts. That's a credit to both the Rays' offense and their relief pitching, each of which have been amongst the best in the league. The Ray's are hitting nearly .280 and scoring just under 6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, and their bullpen has posted a collective ERA of 3.33 with a record of 13-8. Kazmir just needs to put together a solid outing like he did in his last appearance against the Marlins, going 5 innings and giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits. If he can do that, the rest of the Rays will finish off the Rangers.

3* on Kansas City Royals -145
I'm looking to Zack Greinke to stop Chicago's six-game winning streak tonight. Greinke has been amazing the season, going 10-3 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 16 starts. He is currently 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA in 9 home starts, and though his numbers have elevated some in his last three starts, he is still 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The White Sox will have trouble finding runs against the Royals tonight.

5* Blue Chip Bet on St. Louis Cardinals -112
Take the Cards over the Reds tonight. Cincinnati starter, Homer Bailey, has long been touted as one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, however, each time he gets a call up from the Minors, he gets shelled. Bailey has two starts this season, and though he is 1-0, his ERA in those starts is 8.68 and his WHIP is 2.04. Meanwhile, Joel Pineiro has been a model of consistency for the Cardinals. His 6-9 record is very misleading, because Pineiro has just a 3.44 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts this season. In his last three starts, he's managed a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. I'll take the Cards against the struggling Bailey tonight.

3* on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9
Cincinnati starter, Homer Bailey, has long been touted as one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, however, each time he gets a call up from the Minors, he gets shelled. Bailey has two starts this season, and though he is 1-0, his ERA in those starts is 8.68 and his WHIP is 2.04. He puts so many runners on base, there will be a lot of opportunities for the Cardinals to score runs. St. Louis may come close to this number themselves and the Reds will tack a few on for good measure. ``

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex

Superplay: San Diego Under 7.5 -115 (914)

[Mr. IWS]

Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #1


METS +140 FOR A 25 DIME WINNER






Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #2


ROCKIES -125 FOR A 25 DIME WINNER




Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #3

RED SOX -120 FOR A 25 DIME WINNER

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker's NL Roundtripper Roast - 11-1 MLB Run!
Price: $20.00
ATLANTA BRAVES

[Mr. IWS]

Ras

Chicago/San Antonio (Under 144.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

4* Minn
1* Minn -1-1/2
3* Dodgers
2* Atlanta
1 1/2* Colorado
1 1/2* Florida
1 1/2 * Yankees R. L.
1* Mil

2 1/2* Oakland Under 9
2* St. Louis Under 9 1/2
2* Atlanta Under 9 1/2
2* Mil Under 9
1 1/2* Dodgers Under 7 1/2
1 1/2* Seattle Under 8 1/2
1 1/2* San Fran Under 8 1/2
1* Phils Under 10