7-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 35 Dime White Sox

White Sox at Royals
WHITE SOX - Earlier this season the Chicago White Sox couldn’t buy a win against the Kansas City Royals. But after a two-game set in early May, where the Royals picked up the sweep, the White Sox have owned Kansas City.

Since then, Chicago has gone 5-0 against the Royals and will add another to the win column today.

Consider that the Sox haven’t just been hot against Kansas City, they’ve just been hot overall. Over their last 18 games the the White Sox are 14-4. In that stretch, and going a little further, Chicago has been impressive on the road, going 15-4 its last 19 away from the Windy City.

On the other side, the Royals have been their typical selves. They’ve lost 4 straight and are just 4-12 their last 16 games.

Also keep in mind that on the mound Chicago will turn to Gavin Floyd, who has become one of their most reliable pitchers over the last month. Coming into today the White Sox have won 5 of his last 6 starts. In that 6-game stretch Floyd has allowed only 6 earned runs in 42 1/3 innings of work.

Floyd will continue his brilliance and the White Sox will continue their domination of the Royals. Take Chicago on the road in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
25 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS (With Halladay and Wang as listed pitchers)

10 Dime ---- BRAVES (With Hanson as listed pitcher)

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (with Halladay and Wang) --- This one comes down to one simple thing... starting pitching, and I'm telling you right now that Roy Halladay will go at least seven innings and the Blue Jays will win this game by at least two runs.

Halladay is having another solid season, winning 10 games while losing just two with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Halladay has struck out 95 hitters thus far, walking just 14, and even despite coming back from the 15-day DL, Halladay pitched six solid innings in his last outing vs. Tampa Bay. Though he didn't get the win, Halladay still only allowed two earned runs in those six innings but didn't get any run support. Halladay's career numbers against New York look like this: 16-5, a 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and an opponents' batting average again of just .236. 5 times in his career he's gone the complete 9 innings out of 31 starts and there's a good chance he could do that again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are also 21-7 in Halladay's last 28 starts vs. the Yankees. Numbers don't lie.

The Yankees counter with Chien-Ming Wang, and it goes without saying, he hasn't been good this year. Though he was decent in his very last outing (2 ERs in 5.1 innings pitched), his overall ERA (10.19) should tell you the story of how poorly Wang has pitched this year since coming off last year's devastating injury. The Yankees are still trying to find that 5th starter in the rotation, and so far the job belongs to Wang. The Yankees won game one of this series, 4-2, yesterday, which gives the Jays all the more reason to come out fighting today. Top play of the day on the Blue Jays over the Yankees.


ATLANTA BRAVES (with Hanson) --- Much like the Blue Jays, this play comes down to my man-crush on Tommy Hanson. Hanson has been absolutely untouchable in his last three starts and there's no reason for me to think the Nationals have enough firepower to counter that today.

17.1 innings pitched, no earned runs, and a total of nine hits in those three games. That's pretty masterful even for the most experienced pitcher. We're dealing with a rookie, and I believe that plays right into our hands today. The Nats have not seen Hanson yet this year, so the advantage (at least for this time around) has to fall in the hands of the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta won the first game of this series last night, 9-8, and have won their last four games (after dropping four straight).

John Lannan counters for the Nationals, and although he's been better lately, I'm not sold on the fact he can get the job done at home today. Lannan has faced the Braves twice already this season, dropping both games... one in Washington and one in Atlanta. Though his ERA is solid againt Atlanta, you can't ignore the fact he just can't figure out how to beat the Braves. My money is on the Braves this afternoon as your top bonus play of the day.

[Mr. IWS]

Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #1


BLUE JAYS @ YANKEES 1:05 ET
HALLADAY HAS BEEN UNHITTABLE 10-2 ON THE YEAR, 1-0 ALREADY AGAINST THE YANKEES THIS YEAR AND 16-5 LIFETIME. HE IS 4-0 ON THE ROAD AND HIS LAST 18 INNINGS HIS ERA IS 1.50. WANG 1-6 ON THE YEAR, 0-2 AT HOME AND HIS LAST 15 INNINGS HIS ERA 4.80 WILL NOT GET IT DONE HERE.
BLUE JAYS - 135 FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION






Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #2


BRAVES @ NATIONALS 1:05 ET
DON'T LOOK NOW BUT THE BRAVES HAVE THE BEST STARTING PITCHING IN THE NL EAST. HANSON IS ONE OF THE REASONS. HE IS 4-0 WITH A 2.48 ERA ON THE YEAR, HE IS 2-0 ON THE ROAD AND HIS LAST 17 INNINGS HE IS 3-0 WITH AN ERA OF 0.00. LANNAN HAS ONLY WON 6 OF HIS 16 STARTS AND HAS LOST TO THE BRAVES ALREADY THIS YEAR. HE WILL GET BEAT IN THIS SPOT.
BRAVES -135 FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION



Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #3

CARDS @ REDS 1:10 ET
FIRST PLACE CARDS WILL GET THIS ROAD "W" IN CINCY TODAY. THOMPSON OWNS THE REDS, 3-0 LIFETIME AND HE IS 2-1 ON THE ROAD THIS YEAR. OWINGS HAS ONLY WON 6 OF HIS 14 STARTS AND WILL NOT GET THE JOB DONE AGAINST ST LOUIS.
CARDS -110 FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Jake Timlin
Saturday's Action
400? Colorado Rockies -1 ½ Runs

Fireworks at Coors field, I look for the Rockies to make easy work of Arizona tonight.

With last night’s series opening 5-0 win the Rockies continue to be the hottest team in the league having won 22 of their last 27 games. Well thanks to pitching of Cook tonight I look for the Rockies to continue to dominate.

Aaron Cook hotter than hot is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.75 in his last five starts as the righty has only allowed 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts.

For Arizona, they counter having lost 12 of their last 14 games and throwing Yusmeiro Petit who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.03 in five starts on the season.

Flat out, no way do I see tonight’s game being close as Colorado’s pitching and offense is too good for Arizona to match.

In a blowout, go with the Rockies tonight at home.

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play 5 Dime - COLORADO ROCKIES (Cook) - 1 1/2 Runs over Arizona (Petit)

A lack of better choices has left Arizona in the position of starting Yusmeiro Petit tonight at Colorado. The righthander has been out since May 9 because of an inflamed shoulder and was less than sparkling in his rehab assignment, compiling a 6.89 ERA in five outings, allowing four homers in 15.2 innings. In fact, he was pulled from his most recent start on Tuesday in preparation for his return to the majors after allowing five hits and three runs -- two of which were earned -- in three innings of work.

Prior to landing on the disabled list, Petit had made five starts this season and the Diamondbacks had lost each outing as he allowed 37 baserunners in 22.2 innings with an ERA of 7.55. On of those starts was against the Rockies at home on April 21, a game in which he allowed eight hits and three runs in five innings of work. But the Colorado team Petit faced that day bears little resemblance to the one playing at Coors Field today.

Friday's 5-0 victory in the series opener raised Colorado's record to 22-5 in its last 27 games. Along the way, the Rockies have won six straight and 11 of 13 at home.

Colorado's Aaron Cook has won each of his last five starts, allowing just 31 hits and seven runs over 36 innings for an earned run average of 1.75. He'll be facing an Arizona club that's lost 11 of its last 13, including three in a row, a stretch in which the Diamondbacks have scored a total of two runs, getting shutout twice, lowering their major league-worst batting average to .242.

On the moneyline, Colorado is an overwhelming favorite. But on the Run Line, this game is priced at a virtual pick'em, making the Rockies an attractive wagering opportunity considering their recent run of success, Arizona's losing ways and inability to score, and the choice of starting pitchers by the Diamondbacks.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams 1000* - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings (1:10 pm), 500* - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller The Cardinals cooled down the Reds a little with the win last night, and I like them to do it once more this afternoon at Great American Ball Park with Brad Thompson on the hill.

Thompson sports 2 wins this year, and both of those wins have come away from home. Sure, he is not the "ace" of the St. Louis staff, but then again can you trust Micah Owings who seems to pitch well every other start?

Ownings is coming off a 6 inning, 1 run win at Cleveland, but the start before was shellacked for 6 runs in 6 innings in a loss at Toronto.

For the season Owings is 5-7 with a 4.85 ERA.

I will take my chances with Thompson getting some run support, and the Cards getting the "W".

1000? - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

The Marlins are right in the thick of it in the NL East, but the same can be said for the Pirates being right in the thick of it in the NL Central, and Pittsburgh did open the holiday weekend with the 7-4 win last night.

I will give the Bucs the play tonight in the underdog role, as Florida starter Andrew Miller still hasn't figured it out yet, and Pittsburgh did hang a loss on him back on April 20th, as the southpaw allowed 4 runs over his 5 innings of work that night.

Zach Duke has made 3 straight quality starts for Pittsburgh, and the fact is, the Pirates are now 4-0 in this year's season series against the Marlins.

Nice value with the Pirates this afternoon in South Florida.

500? - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!?

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker's 4th of July MLB Blowout - 12-2 Run!
Tom has quietly cashed 12 of his last 14 MLB selections and he's stepping out on Saturday with only one MLB best bet. Stryker has zeroed in on a high-octane offense prepared to explode and this solid best bet comes with the support of two incredible money-making team trends. Grab Tom's 4th of July MLB Blowout for $20.

TAMPABAY RAYS

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
over philly/playmaker

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG TOTAL

Game: Houston at San Francisco (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 +100

Tim Lincecum is rapidly positioning himself as one of the top starters in baseball. He is off an impressive 18-4 season and enters this one at 8-2. When you consider the fact that he has allowed just nine earned runs in his last eight starts, it becomes clear he has some extra special stuff. He has also allowed Houston just six total runs in his last four starts against them. Russ Ortiz has been no slouch either as he has allowed just 19 earned runs in his eight starts on the season and in no game has he allowed more than three. Houston has now played to a 17-5 mark to the under in their last 22 games posted as a dog. The Giants have under madness as well as they are now 25-11-3 to the under vs teams with a losing record. Runs certainly look to be hard to come by here and I'll back the UNDER in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman from Northcoast

4 1/2 white sox

3* atl under

3* houston

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker
double dime on the Twins -120

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Bruno Wins

Brewers +150
Cubs
Event Date: 07/04/2009
Event Time: 1 PM est
Play: Brewers +150 (looper & harden)
Score:
Comments: Saturday.....Baseball.....wager 100 Dimes to win 150 Dimes.....after winning 6 weeks in a row, last week we had a rare losing week & lost -225.5 dimes, we are up +146.5 dimes, if we win today we will be at +296.5 dimes for this week, we will have gotten it all back & them some, this is why you need to stay with your money management & never be fearful of betting after a losing week like last week, we just let your bookie borrow that money for a week, now its time for him to pay us some interest on that loan, & today is interest day!

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball
#951 - MLB - 3 units on Atlanta -124
#953 - MLB - 3 units on Milwaukee +148
#956 - MLB - 3 units on Cincinnati -102
#960 - MLB - 3 units on Philadelphia -138
#964 - MLB - 3 units on San Diego +140
maddux sports

[Mr. IWS]

R. Ferringo 7-4-09

2-Unit Play. Take #962 Florida (-140) over Pittsburgh (6 p.m., Saturday, July 4)


2-Unit Play. Take #968 Boston (-1.5, -110) over Seattle (1 p.m., Saturday, July 4)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #977 Tampa Bay (-135) over Texas (8 p.m., Saturday, July 4)


1-Unit Play. Take #953 Milwaukee (+150) over Chicago Cubs (1 p.m., Saturday, July 4)


1-Unit Play. Take #951 Atlanta (-130) over Washington (1 p.m., Saturday, July 4)


1-Unit Play. Take #963 L.A. Dodgers (-140) over San Diego (4 p.m., Saturday, July 4)


Today's Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Detroit at Minnesota (8 p.m., Saturday, July 4)

2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at Washington (1 p.m., Saturday, July 4)

2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Oakland at Cleveland (7 p.m., Saturday, July 4)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (4 p.m., Saturday, July 4)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Houston at San Francisco (4 p.m., Saturday, July 4)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 Seattle at Boston (1 p.m., Saturday, July 4)

[Mr. IWS]

THE PREZ - 5* BRAVES

[Mr. IWS]

Young Guns

4 1/2* Mets

3 Yankees Under

3* Cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
400 (First ever) LAA
100 CWS (Steam), ATL under
50 CLE, DET

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers

Cws/Kc under

[Mr. IWS]

Chris James Sports

4* Game of the Week Cubs/Brewers Under 9
2* Atlanta Braves -114


Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Selection: 4* Game of the Week Brewers/Cubs Under 9

I can't deny the numbers here. I couldn't feel more confident that we are on the right side of this today. The Brewers/Cubs square off in Game 3 of a 4 game set. The pitching matchup today features the Brewers Braden Looper who is 6-4 with a 4.90 ERA vs the Cubs Rich Harden who is 5-4 with a 4.57 ERA. Those numbers aren't great, but their numbers against each team are pretty overwhelming.

Braden Looper has faced the Cubs 9 times in his career with a 2.37 ERA. In 8 of 9 starts, Looper has give up 2 Earned Runs or less, with the other start allowing 4 Earned Runs. In his most recent start against the Cubs on 4/10 he went 5 innings allowing 5 hits and 1 ER. As far as Milwaukee's bullpen goes, they have some quality relief pitchers. Trevor Hoffman has had a sensational year posting a 1.93 ERA. Mark DiFelice is right behind him with a 1.97 ERA followed by Mitch Stetter with a 2.28 and Todd Coffey at 2.77.
Rich Harden has faced the Brewers only 3 times in his career but they have all been quality starts. Harden boasts a 1.50 ERA in those 3 starts. Harden opposed Looper in that start on 4/10 and he went 6 innings allowing only 3 hits and 1 Earned Run. In fact, in all starts against the Brewers Harden has only allowed a single earned run per game. The Cubs bullpen doesn't have the shutdown pitchers like Hoffman and DiFelice but as a whole they aren't far behind the Brewers.

The numbers at the plate really support this play. The Cubs are ranked 27th in the league for both Total Batting Average and Total Runs Scored. The Cubs are also ranked 27th in the league against Right-Handed Pitchers hitting only .246. The most shocking number of all is that the Cubs are only hitting .216, which is worst in the league, with runners in scoring position. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 24th in the league in Total Batting Average at .253. The Brewers are also hitting .253 on the year against Right Handers which is ranked 23rd in the league. The Brewers own the league's worst batting average during Day games this year at a pathetic .208. And while the Brewers aren't as bad as the Cubs with runners in scoring position, they aren't much better, ranked 24th in the league hitting .245.

I can't help but notice that both of these teams haven't had a day off in what seems like forever. The Brewers last day off was June 22nd and the Cubs was a week earlier on June 15th. In the midst of this long run for the Cubs they had a 10 game road trip travelling between 4 different cities before this current home stand with the Brewers.

Combining all of the information that I have present, I can't believe that this game goes over the posted total! Play the Under for our 4* MLB Game of the Week!

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman Sports

Top 6 Drivers to Win Daytona Saturday night!


The Sprint Cup boys move to Daytona this Saturday night for the 18th race of the season. Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5 mile Tri-Oval Restrictor Plate Track located in Daytona Beach, Florida. Here are my Top 6 drivers to win in Daytona this weekend. We still have to wait for Qualifying and Happy Hour before finalizing our Head to Head matchups. Daytona is normally a very good money track for us!! We are now 67% this year with our Head to Head Nascar matchups. For starters, I think Jeff Gordon has the best shot of winning this race. Gordon has 6 wins, 11 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10 finishes in his 33 starts here in Daytona. Gordon has an average finish of 15.1 here in Daytona. Jeff Gordon's average finish over the past 3 races is 4.3. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 3 top 10 finishes, which is best among all drivers. Next in line I would go with Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt has two wins, 6 Top 5 finishes and 11 Top 10 finishes in 19 starts here in Daytona. Earnhardt has an average finish of 14.3 here in Daytona, which is 3rd best among all active drivers. Past 2 years, Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 14.0. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 4 top 10 finishes. Then, back in my 3rd spot, I have to go with a sleeper in AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger has no wins, 1 Top 5 finishes and 1 Top 10 finishes in his 2 starts in Dayton. Allmendinger has an average finish of 22.5 here in Daytona. Allmendinger finished 3rd back in the Daytona 500, which was the first race of the season. Looking at my pick for the 4th spot we turn to Kurt Busch. Busch has no wins, 8 Top 5 finishes and 9 Top 10 finishes in his 17 starts in Daytona. Busch has an average finish of 17.9 in Daytona. Past 2 years, Kurt Busch's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 13.7. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 4 top 10 finishes. Kurt Busch's average finish over the past 3 races is 8.7. In 3 races, he has 0 wins and 2 top 10 finishes. Rounding out my Top 5 and sitting tied in the 5th position is David Ragan. Ragan has no wins, two Top 5 finishes and three Top 10 finishes in his 5 starts in Daytona. Ragan has an average finish of 14.0 in Daytona, which is 3rd best among all active drivers. Past 2 years, David Ragan's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 12.0. In 6 races, he has 0 wins and 4 top 10 finishes, which is the best among all drivers. My final driver, which tied for 5th place in my ratings, is Kyle Busch. Busch has 1 win, 4 Top 5 finishes and 4 Top 10 finishes in his 9 races in Daytona. Kyle Busch knows only one way to do it and that is mash it to the floor. Kyle Busch has an average finish of 18.4 here in Daytona. Kyle Busch's average finish at track type - RESTRICTOR PLATE TRACK is 14.5. In 6 races, he has 2 wins and 3 top 10 finishes. The odds for these drivers to win in Daytona currently at Bodog are:

#24 Jeff Gordon 7 to 1
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8 to 1
#44 AJ Allmendinger 100 to 1
#2 Kurt Busch 12 to 1
#6 David Ragan 30 to 1
#18 Kyle Busch 6 to 1

[Mr. IWS]

Betting as a Business

Washington +105 / Atlanta 1.5 Units

Like we told you last Sunday when we were on Boston over the Braves and Tommy Hanson, it's just a matter of time before Hanson's W/L record catches up to his overall numbers. The Braves are a perfect 5-0 in Hanson's starts this season but take a look at the numbers: He has a WHIP of 1.41 and ar ERA of 2.48... that's near impossible to do! That means he allows 12.69 base runners (via walk or hit) per 9 innings yet only allows 2.48 runs per 9 innings. And if you take his first start out of the equation (an 8-7 Atlanta win with Hanson giving up 6 hits and 6 ER's), in his 4 latest starts Hanson has pitched 23 innings giving up 18 hits and 16 walks but has only allowed a total of 2 runs!! So THAT"S a WHIP of 1.48 and an ERA of 1.28.... get the picture? Hanson's allowed an average of about 1 and a half base runners per inning over his last 4 starts (34 base runners... 23 innings) and has allowed just 2 to cross the plate... When the bottom falls out it's going to be ugly!

Of course we have to be concerned because today the Braves are playing the team with the worst record in baseball, but John Lannan as pitched well (5-5, 1.35 WHIP & 3.45 ERA) and as we've said before, even bad teams in MLB win 50 games in a season. &n! bsp;

Over 7 Runs (-120) Houston / San Francisco 1 Unit

Under 9 Runs (Even) Toronto / NY Yankees 1 Unit

Over 8.5 Runs (Even) Chicago WS / Kansas City 1 Unit

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES

15* White Sox/Royals UNDER 8.5

I like the under in the Royals vs the White Sox this afternoon. White Sox starter, Gavin Floyd has been on a tear, earning a 0.87 ERA in his last 3 starts, never giving up more than 1 earned run in any of those appearances. Meanwhile, KC starter, Luke Hochevar has pitched well at home this season, posting a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 4 starts at Kauffman. Expect a scrapy game with only a few runs.

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops

5* Washington +101 **POD**
5* Seattle +202
5* Houston +185
5* Arizona +180

[Mr. IWS]

VR

2*Braves Over 8.5
2* Reds
3* Rangers Over 10.5

[Mr. IWS]

INDIANCOWBOY

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 the Pittsburgh Pirates @ Florida Marlins

Let's take the Under in Florida today as the Pirates come into town. Zach Duke, the Clifton, Texas native rolls for the Bucks today as he comes off a 1-3 loss to the Cubs at home where he pitched very well but still fell short in 7 innings giving up 3 runs. Duke, who although is 8-6, has a 3.13 era and has been stellar with his control throughout the season. He has put together 4 straight and 7 of 8 quality starts and I expect him to have another strong outing today as he comes off a loss. Andrew Miller, another lefty and Florida native at that, has been a solid bounce-back pitcher after a non-quality start. He gave up 5 runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay in his last go around and lost 2-5 on the highway - which is similar to an outing that he had in Boston only to come back in his next game at Baltimore and give up 1 earned run in 7 innings. I look for both Miller and Duke to have a strong effort today as the Under is 8-1 for the Pirates as an Underdog and 6-0 for the Marlins following a loss - who are in the heat of a division race currently.