7-31-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig's 5 star R/L Grand Slam Play



The Bottom Line:
TB -1.5 (+103): TB is 6-0 this year verse KC winning by more than three runs per game. If that is not enough try KC has lost 13 of last 16 games. Even better Ponson is pitching for KC and he has lost 12 of his last 13 starts with a plus 6 ERA. He is 6-3 with a 4.46 ERA in his last 13 starts against the Rays. He was 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three starts versus Tampa Bay last season. On the hill for TB young superstar Price goes and even though he has struggled on the road that has not been problem at home going 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA in five home starts this year. KC just can't score runs consistently and TB can put up runs with the best of them.

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan
Friday night winner ...


400? TAMPA BAY RAYS RUN LINE (WITH Price over Ponson) - Though David Price received a no-decision in his last start, he will be looking to avenge the dismal start, against Toronto, which rocked him for six runs on nine hits over three innings. Difference is, the Jays can hit the ball; the Royals can’t. And since the 23-year-old's biggest issues revolve around inconsistency with his fastball, I believe he’ll make the right adjustment in a comfort zone at Tropicana Field, where he is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six career appearances.

I know he often leaves his pitches in undesirable locations, which essentially weakens the effectiveness of his slider and changeup, but need I remind everyone he looked like the best pitcher on the field at times in the postseason last year? The left-hander is 1-2 with a 9.37 ERA in his last four outings, and this is the best opportunity to shake that funk and enjoy a successful outing.

The Royals, who are mired in ruts of 3-10 as an underdog and 14-37 on Friday nights, will be playing their fifth straight road game in as many days. Plus, they’re sending one of my favorite go-against pitchers to the hill … Sidney Ponson. Kansas City has lost 12 of the 13 appearances by Ponson, who is 1-6 with a 6.79 ERA.

Tampa Bay - which has won 22 of its last 29 meetings with the Royals, including all six meetings this season – is coming in steamed after losing two of three to the Yankees in what turned out to be an emotional series.

The Royals stumble into this one on a myriad of losing streaks, including 15-36 off a loss, 2-5 on the road, 1-8 against southpaws, 7-19 against winning teams and 6-22 after giving up five or more runs their last time out (they lost 7-3 in Baltimore yesterday). And when Ponson takes the mound, Kansas City is on losing streaks of 1-4 when he’s pitching on four days rest, 0-7 as an underdog and 1-7 overall.

With Tampa Bay, the winning runs include 7-3 versus the American League Central, 28-9 on Friday nights, 89-37 at the Trop and 4-1 when Price toes the home slab.

Lay the run line here, as Tampa Bay rolls to a blowout win over the road-weary Royals.

[Mr. IWS]

Dominic Fazzini
Friday's play 15 Dime -- Cubs (Harden) over MARLINS (Volstad)

CUBS
NOTE: List only Harden as Chicago's starting pitcher

Cubs right-hander Rich Harden (7-6, 4.55 ERA) has turned his season around.

After struggling for much of the first half, Harden is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed one hit – a Joey Votto solo homer -- in six innings with eight strikeouts against Cincinnati on Sunday.

Harden will be opposed by Marlins right-hander Chris Volstad (8-9, 4.44), who has struggled at home this year. He is 2-6 with a 5.57 ERA in his last nine outings at Land Shark Stadium.

In his last start, Volstad allowed four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings Sunday at Dodger Stadium. It was the third time in four outings that he has given up at least four runs.

The Cubs’ offense had trouble scoring runs much of the first half of the season, but that’s not the case anymore, as Chicago has scored in double figures four times in the last 11 games.

Harden has been solid on the road all season, going 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA in seven starts, and he has allowed just three runs over 20 innings in his last three outings away from Wrigley Field.

When Harden is on his game, he’s as good as any pitcher in baseball. Combine that with the way Chicago has been swinging the bats lately, and there’s only one way to go on this one. Take the Cubs.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney
Friday ... 10-Dime Blue Jays (WITH Richmond and Braden) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

10-Dime Padres -

10-Dime Phillies -1' Runs (WITH Blanton over Sadowski) -

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime 7 /31


MLB Baseball

100* Play Detroit (-135) over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY)

Cleveland has lost 8 of the last 9 games coming off four or more consecutive OVER the totals and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games. Cleveland has lost 17 of the last 26 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 3 consecutive games vs. Detroit at home. Fausto Carmona has lost 4 of the last 5 home games and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 19.65.



100* Play St. Louis (-165) over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 12 games when playing with a day off. Houston has lost 3 consecutive games vs. St. Louis on the road and Brian Moehler has an ERA of 5.16 in all games this season. St. Louis has won 13 of the last 17 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and Mitchell Boggs has won 8 of his last 10 games.



100* Play Texas (-160) over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)

Texas has won 8 of the last 10 games and they have also won 17 of the last 23 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Texas has won 18 of the last 26 games vs. division opponents and they have also won 16 of the last 22 home games vs. left-handed starting pitchers. Vicente Padilla has won 12 of the last 16 games vs. division opponents and he has also won 5 of the last 6 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs.


50* Play Colorado (-135) over Cincinnati (MLB BONUS PLAY)

Cincinnati has lost 9 of the last 10 games and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games vs. Colorado at home. Cincinnati has lost 17 of the last 26 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 20 of the last 30 games when batting .240 or worse over the last 15 games. Aaron Cook has won 5 consecutive games as a road favorite of -125 or higher and he is also 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 3.26.



CFL Football

50* Play British Columbia (-2) over Hamilton (CFL FOOTBALL PLAY)

British Columbia has won 21 of the last 27 games vs. Hamilton and they have also won 4 of the last 5 road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points. British Columbia has won 13 of the last 17 non-conference games and they have also won 17 of the last 22 games coming off an UNDER the total.



WNBA BASKETBALL


50* Play Minnesota (+4) over Detroit (WNBA HOOPS PLAY)

Minnesota has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games vs. Detroit and they have also covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games as an underdog of 6 points or less. Minnesota has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 non-conference games and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 12 games coming off a home loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Jake Timlin
Friday's Action
400? New York Mets

List both Hernandez & Davis as starting pitchers or this play is void

Back by 4 PM eastern with analysis.

[Mr. IWS]

Top Rank Sports

Florida -105 over Chicago Cubs

St. Louis -145 over Houston

Cleveland +120 over Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

Ferringo

2.5-Unit Play. Take #972 Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Kansas City (7:30 p.m., Friday, July 31)

2-Unit Play. Take #965 Philadelphia over San Francisco (10 p.m., Friday, July 31)

1-Unit Play. Take #965 Philadelphia (-1.5) over San Francisco (10 p.m., Friday, July 31)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Boston over Baltimore (7 p.m., Friday, July 31)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #953 Colorado over Cincinnati (7 p.m., Friday, July 31)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #958 N.Y. Mets over Arizona (7 p.m., Friday, July 31)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #977 N.Y. Yankees over Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Friday, July 31)


1-Unit Play. Take #951 Washington over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, July 31)


Today’s Totals

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 10.5 Seattle at Texas (8 p.m., Friday, July 31)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Arizona at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, July 31)

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates +115

It's hard to even consider backing the Nationals on the road as a favorite, under any circumstances. They have their best pitcher in John Lannon on the hill, but it begins and ends there. The Nats, even with Lannon on the mound are still just 3-6 in his nine starts on the road. The Nats have been the worst road team against righthand pitching, perhaps of all time. They come into this one with an 11-51 mark in their last 62 games - not numbers that exude confidence with a favorite. Russ Olendorf has been steadily improving for the Pirates as they have now won five straight home starts with him as a home dog. It looks like a live dog here, so I'll go with the Pirates here

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog 2009/07/31

Game: Arizona at New York Mets (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Mets -1.5 runs +180 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.6)

Game: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +130 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.6)

Game: Washington at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)

Game: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay -210 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.9)

Game: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs -110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: Seattle at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play.

Take the Over 158.5 between the Minnesota Lynx @ Detroit Shock (Friday @ 7:30pm est).

It's Friday night WNBA action, and there is just one game on tap. You've heard me write and say that whenever there is just one game on tap, the dog usually does well. Vegas has put a small line on Minneosta at Detroit today for several reasons. For starters, Minnesota comes off a loss to the Sparks at home, this is the same team that went to San Antonio coming off a loss and won Outright by 7 points, so Vegas looks for them to bounce-back as well. Having said that, Detroit has been sound lately winning 3 of their last 5 with four of those six games going into overtime. Detroit has been much better on the offensive end, but more importantly, I beleive they will be taken to the limit today. So, in short, it is the active dog/over theory that I advocate. Plus, as this is the only game on tap in Vegas today, I expect the public to have a trap set for them so to speak as well. The Over is 8-1 for the Lynx when playing on 2 days rest, the over is 7-0 in the last two meetings between these two teams and the Over is 5-1 for the Shock following a loss.

4 Unit Play.

Take Under 10.5 between the Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Friday @ 8pm est).

Padilla has been one of the best bounce-backs in the majors for some time and this year is no different. In fact, Vincente has pitched in 7 straight Unders and 8 of 10 Unders. The total has still yet to adjust to him as he continues to pitch in many unders as his era does not indicate his bounce-back capabilities. Vincente gave up 5 runs against the Twins in his last start and picked up a loss and I expect him to pitch well today as he bounces back and helps his squad continue to roll in the playoff chase. Vargas, an alum of Long Beach State, got ripped by Cleveland in his last start giving up 6 runs in 4 innings against the Indians. The young man was coming off 3 hits adn 5 scoreless innings against Baltimore prior to getting shelled in his last start. I feel that although he is likely to get hit by the Rangers lineup a bit, he will still pitch to the under as well as he bounces back from that terrible start. Keep in mind Seattle has many young hurlers that can take the place of this young man, so he needs a quality start today. The Under is 4-0 when Vargas pitches with 4 days of rest and the Under is 5-0 when Padilla starts with a total in this range. The Under is also 5-1in the last meetings head to head.

4 Unit Play.

Take Under 8 between the Toronto Bluejays @ Oakland A's (Friday @ 10pm est).

Scott Richmond comes off a solid outing, yet he still picked up the loss as he gave up 3 runs in 7 innings in his last start. He has pitched back to back quality starts and comes off 3 of 4 quailty starts. I expect him to pitch well today as he looks to bounce-back and albeit from a quality start, a loss nonetheless. Tack that on with the fact Braden comes off a loss at new Yankee Stadium giving up 7 runs in 5 innings, I expect him to bounce-back well today. Mind you, this is a similar situation when Braden gave up 6 runs in 5 innings against the Angels on 7/16 and came back the following start on 7/21 by giving up 2 runs in 7 innings to Minnesota. This is a similar situation and I expect him as well as Richmond to pitch quality starts today. The Under is 8-2 for the Bluejays following a loss and the Under is 10-2 when Braden starts as a favorite by this margin.

Good luck,
IC

[Mr. IWS]

Adam Meyer

[ Friday, July 31 2009 at 07:05:PM ]
Boston Red Sox
vs. Baltimore Orioles

Don’t expect much from either starting pitcher tonight. Boston’s John Smoltz is 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA since joining the Red Sox and was lit up by the Orioles in his last start for six runs and nine hits over five innings. On the other side, Baltimore’s starter Jeremy Guthrie has a 7.94 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox. But you can count on Boston’s two, six and number eight hitters. The trio of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis have combined for a .378 batting average with 27 RBI’s verses the Orioles. Put your money on the Red Sox -125 to win the series opener tonight.

PLAY: Boston Red Sox / -125 / 5 Units



Adam Meyer
[ Friday, July 31 2009 at 08:11:PM ]
New York Yankees
vs. Chicago White Sox

Riding last night’s ninth inning win the Chicago White Sox keep it rolling at home tonight against New York and Yankee starting pitcher Sergio Mitre who returns to the rotation for his second start since being called up from Triple-A. Mitre in for an injured Chien-Ming Wang, is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two career starts versus the White Sox. Chicago counters with starter Clayton Richard who is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last two starts. Put your money on the White Sox +110.

PLAY: Chicago White Sox / +110 / 2 Units



Adam Meyer
[ Friday, July 31 2009 at 10:05:PM ]
Milwaukee Brewers
vs. San Diego Padres

Well out of playoff contention, San Diego’s first three-game winning streak in more than two months is enough for me to pick the Padres in a series opening win against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. The “brew crew� just wrapped up a series with the Reds and had to scramble to avoid losing three of four to the only team in the NL worse than the Padres! The Reds can’t patch it together and the Padres keep it going. The pick tonight is San Diego +105.


PLAY: San Diego Padres / +105 / 3 Units

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Salinas Baseball

Friday, July 31, 2009


25* Nationals {J.Lannan} (-115) over Pirates {R.Ohlendorf}
7:05 PM -- PNC Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.


24* Rockies {A.Cook} (-155) over Reds {J.Lehr}
7:10 PM -- Great American Ball Park
Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.


23* Chicago Cubs {R.Harden} (-125) over Marlins {C.Volstad}
7:10 PM -- Dolphin Stadium
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

[Mr. IWS]

KikÃ* Sports

2* Mets

[Mr. IWS]

igz1 sports

Friday Card
MLB
3* Detroit RL -1.5 (+120) (Jackson)
3* Over 10 (-105) LA Angels (Santana) vs Minnesota (Blackburn)

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

100,000* MONSTER MONSTER LOCK Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:



1. 100,000? Red Sox

2. 50,000? Brewers





1. I am not going to at all try and defend the recent play from Terry Francona's Red Sox, save the last few innings yesterday, because it has been beyond brutal. Boston has regressed terribly over the past few weeks and it is a total possibility that they may not even make the playoffs, even with that last comeback win over the A's



John Smoltz gets the ball for Boston and he has been anything but good of late. The future Hall of Famer has struggled immensely and is not the same guy that was with the Braves, I fully understand that. But Smoltz was very solid in that game about a month ago at Camden Yards before the rains came and he had his win stolen from him because of the unreal Oriole 10-1 comeback where the birds prevailed 11-10. If there is ever a case that the baseball Gods or Karma or whatever you want to call it will even things up then this is it. I'm not saying that I handicap on those feelings at all because that is a bit silly but let's be honest here, Smoltz still has enough in the tank to be alright and the Red Sox are still the far superior team today with the much better bullpen.



Jeremy Guthie is alright. The righthander can be very good at times but he also can be pretty poor at times. In other words he is a feast or famine type hurler so you never fully know what is up with him. His last outing was bad in Fenway and I don't believe we will see a 180 today and watch Guthrie look anything above mediocre.



Look for Pedroia, Bay, Lowell, Big Papi, Ellsbury and the Sox to flex their muscles and take care of business here at this bargain basement price. We really are looking at a steal of a price as Boston wins this game a lot more than the oddsmaker seems to believe.







2. The Padres did play a little better in that last series in Cincinnati but don't let that fool you one bit as they flat out do not hit at home in PETCO Park. Besides Adrian Gonzalez there is very little talent and to get Fielder, Braun and the far more talented Brewers at this cheap cheap price is way too good to pass up.



Both Braden Looper and Chad Gaudin are decent enough Major Leaguers. Neither is great but when push comes to shove I'll take my chances on Looper. He has been better for sure as a starter then when he closed games for the Mets and is your typical six inning three run type of a guy which is definitely good enough with his high powered offense.



Obviously PETCO is a total pitchers' ballpark and with the Padres horrible offense I fully believe that Looper is going to have a really really solid outing and in the end that will be more than enough for the far better Brewers to do their thing.



San Diego is probably the worst team in all of baseball and to get the Brew Crew at this number, even away from Miller Park, is just fine with me!

[Mr. IWS]

LT Profits - 100% Confirmed.Won 6 Straight Days - 9-3 Last 12



Friday July 31st 2009
-- Major League Baseball --
7:05p
LT Profits
Detroit Tigers r969
-1.5 (115) / 2 units

MLB DETROIT TIGERS -1.5 +115 (Bet Jamaica – Fri., 7/31/09, 7:00 ET)

7:10p
LT Profits
Arizona Diamondbacks r957
New York Mets r958
u9.0 (-125) / 2 units

MLB DIAMONDBACKS/METS UNDER 9 -125 (Bet Jamaica – Fri., 7/31/09, 7:00 ET)

10:15p
LT Profits
Philadelphia Phillies r965
-1.5 (-110) / 2 units

MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 -110 ***MLB PLAY OF THE DAY*** (Bet Jamaica – Fri., 7/31/09, 10:15 ET) -

[Mr. IWS]

MTI Top 5 star play

5-Star LA Angels +140 over MINNESOTA - The Angels beat the Tribe 9-3 on Wednesday to get to 60-40 on the season. They are a significant dog here because Blackburn has great numbers at home and the Twins have won four straight. However, the Angels have scored at least six runs in nine of their last ten games and they are very tough to beat when they are putting up big numbers. The Angels have not lost this season on the road when they are off a 5+ run win, going a perfect 8-0.
The Angels are motivated by three things: when they facing a team on a winning streak, when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record and when they are a dog when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. All three are active here. The Halos are a best-in-league 32-14 vs a team that has won at least their last four games (o:streak>=4 and date>=20050501 and team) including 15-6 as a road DOG vs a team that has won at least their last three games. Also, LA is 9-4 since May as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record and a scintillating 15-3 as a DOG when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. Yikes!
Both these teams are off wire-to-wire wins. However, Minnesota is 0-6 as a favorite of more than 110 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and the Angels are 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a road series when they are off a win in which they never trailed, with two of the six wins as a dog.
Many squares will lay this big number citing the fact that Minnesota is 11-1 their last dozen when Nick Blackburn starts as a home favorite and Ervin Santana lasted only three and two-thirds in his last start, allowing six runs. However, this information does not give any line value because the linesmakers KNOW that Blackburn has been a good investment at home and they KNOW that Santana was bombed in his last start. Less well known is the fact that the Angels are a staggering 21-4 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start! They are 11-1 their last dozen in this situation and they have not lost in this spot this season. Finally, the Angels are a perfect 10-0 with Santana in the first game of a road series - including 3-0 this season. We give the Angels a significantly better than even chance at winning here and they are a BIG dog. We're playing LA on the adjusted run line (-1.5 runs at a big price).
MTi's FORECAST: LA ANGELS 8 Minnesota 3
Bigcheez is online now Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

MTi's CHEAP CHALK (4.5-Star)

4-Star NY METS -110 over Arizona - The Mets lost 4-2 in the nightcap yesterday to break a five-game winning streak. They led 1-0 after five, but the Rockies tied it up in the sixth and went on to win 4-2. We expect that they'll get right back to their winning ways tonight. The Mets are 8-1 since late April in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Their only loss was by a single run against the Yankees and Chamberlain as a 185 dog. More specifically, NY is 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead, winning each of the last four by multiple runs.
Hernandez has produced wins in two straight starts, going seven innings in each and allowing 2 and 3 runs respectively. The Mets are a reliable 5-0 since May at home when they won the last two games their starter started.
Arizona is off a 4-0 shutout of the Phillies and they send Doug Davis to the hill to face the Mets. The Diamondbacks are a huge money-burner in this spot. The Snakes are 0-19 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and their starter lasted more than six innings (team=Diamondbacks and D and po:BL=0 and p:SIP>6 and 20080524<=date) - including 0-10 THIS season.
In his last start, Doug Davis went six innings and allowed no runs in a 7-0 win over the Pirates. Well, Arizona is 0-5 THIS season when Doug Davis starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs.
The price is right.
MTi's FORECAST: NY METS 5 Arizona 2

[Mr. IWS]

MTi's FALSE FAVORITE (4.5-Star)

4-Star LA Dodgers +155 over ATLANTA - Both these teams won on the road in extra innings by scoring multiple runs in the top of the tenth. LA broke a four game losing streak yesterday with a 5-3 win over the Cardinals in ten innings and the Braves broke a 2-game losing streak with a 6-3 win in Florida in ten innings.
The Dodgers outhit the Cards 12-6 and this is a positive indicator. LA is 11-2 as a ROAD DOG after a win in which they had at least a dozen hits, including 8-1 THIS season and 5-0 their last five. In the first game of a series, the Dodgers are 8-1 THIS season when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits, including 4-0 if it is the first game of a road series.
The Dodgers put their game faces on when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record, going 14-8 as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record.
The obvious reason why the Dodgers are such a huge dog here is the pitching match-up. In his last start, Schmidt allowed five runs in three innings and the Dodgers lost 8-6 to the Marlins. In his two starts, he has received plenty of run support and we expect the Dodgers' bats to support him better than expected here. LA is a perfect 5-0 THIS SEASON when their starter went less than four innings in his last start, out-scoring their opponent by an average of 4.8 runs per game.
In Hanson's last start, the Braves were shut out 4-0 as a dog in Milwaukee. Atlanta, unlike the Dodgers, does poorly when their pitcher got little run support in his last start. The Braves are 5-15 since late April as a favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.
The Braves won Hansen's first five starts, but are 1-3 his last four. There is a good chance that this will be his first home loss, as LA is a solid 3-3 their last six as a 150+ dog.
MTi's FORECAST: LA Dodgers 4 ATLANTA 3

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Members Play

Atlanta Braves

[Mr. IWS]

Premier Capper

Twins and Angels Over 10 runs for 4 units

I will say this every time when we bet an over is that we need two struggling pitchers in a good spot to do it and I feel that we have that today in Minnesota. The starting pitching in this game is Santana (3-6 7.29 ERA) vs. Blackburn (8-5 3.82 ERA). Both pitchers just faced their opposing team last week in LA. Santana and Blackburn gave up 6 runs in 3.2 innings pitched. In Blackburn’s last 3 starts he has given up 17 runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Santana has been worse only having 2 quality starts in his last 9 games and giving up 5 ER or more in 7 outings. The Angels are 11-0 to the Over in their last 11 games against the AL Central and they are on a 23-6-1 run to the Over against a right handed starters. The Over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 starts against right handed starters. With two struggling starters on the hill and with the Angels scoring runs at over 7 runs a game their last 10 games themselves I see a big advantage to the Over today.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

30* NYM over
30* LAD
50* CHW
50* BOS

100* PITT

100* "steam" -COL

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Bruno Wins

10x Cubs (20-9)

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

20* No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115)

This is a game the Rays absolutely should win, and exactly the type of game they need to win to stay competitive in the AL Wildcard race. Sidney Ponson throws for the Royals tonight and this is a guy who is unreliable at best, particularly on the road. He's only thrown twice as the visitor this year, but in those games he has a 15.27 ERA and 2.87 WHIP. For the season, Ponson is 1-5 in 8 starts with a 5.68 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. On the other side of the diamond, the Rays throw David Price, who has been so-so for the most part, but who has thrown his best games at home this season. He is 3-1 on the year when throwing in Tampa with a 3.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Price will be aided by a Tampa Bay offense that out performs Kansas City in almost every category. The Rays hit .274 as a team at home this season, while scoring 5.6 runs per game, a huge reason why they have an impressive 31-17 home record. Meanwhile, the Royals see their batting average dip to .241 on the road and their runs per game drop to 3.5, which is probably why they are just 17-29 on the road this season. The moneyline is much to high, but the runline here is well worth the risk as the Rays should win this one handily.


15* on Chicago Cubs -126

Rich Harden has pitched incredibly well for the Cubs on the road this season, earning a 4-1 record with a 2.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is finally starting to look like the pitcher that the Cubs hoped he would be when they brought him over. Over his last three games he is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.53 WHIP, giving up just a total of 2 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. It's not just Harden that is stepping up his game for Chicago, the Cubs' offense is also picking up their pace. Over their last 7 games, the Cubs are hitting .310 as a team and scoring 7.6 runs per game, more than three runs per game more than they average on the season, and 2.6 more runs per game than the Marlins have scored over the past week. Harden and the Cubs stay hot with a win over Florida Friday night.

[Mr. IWS]

GoodFella | MLB RunLine Fri, 07/31/09 - 7:35 PM ';
double-dime bet 972 TAM -1.5 (-120) Bodog vs 971 KAN
Analysis:

-Price and Ponson both must start or no action guys-



-Price has been very solid at home, and this will be KC's 1st time seeing the you?ng left-hander tonight, advantage Price & the Rays there-



-Price is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six career appearances at Tropicana Field-



-Kansas City has lost 12 of the 13 starts by Ponson, who is 1-6 with a 6.79 ERA for the season-



-Ponson is a dreadful 0-2 on the road this season with a ERA of 15.27 and a WHIP of 2.872-



-Price is 3-1 in 5 starts at home this season, and has a very solid 3.04 ERA in those 5 home starts-

-KC has a PITIFUL bullpen & Tampa Bay has a clear cut bullpen advantage tonight-



-KC has a team Bullpen ERA of 4.96 and a WHIP of 1.523, while the Rays have a team bullpen ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.292-



-KC averages just 3.5 runs per game on the road and just 3.7 runs per game vs left-handed starters-



-Rays are 6-0 vs KC this season & KC is 1-8 their L/9 games vs left-handed starters-



-Here are the Rays (with 6 AB's or more) career #'s vs Ponson: Upton (7-12, .583 AVG, 2B) Crawford (8-36, .222 AVG, HR) Pena (5-12, .417 AVG, 2 2B's, HR) Zobrist (2-6, .333 AVG, HR) Navarro (3-11, .273 AVG) Gross (4-7, .571 AVG, 2B) Burrell (2-9, .222 AVG, HR) Kapler (5-16, .313 AVG, 2B)







-




GoodFella | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/31/09 - 7:05 PM ';
dime bet ml969 DET (-140) SportBet vs 970 CLE
Analysis:

-Jackson and Carmona both must start or no action-



-Carmona will be making his 1st big league start since June 4th at Minnesota....and Carmona for the season at home has these #'s: 5 starts, 0-3 record, 6.20 ERA, and a 1.946 WHIP-



-Jackson has been outstanding on the road this season: 11 starts, 3-4 record, 2.35 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.087-



-Jackson's 2 starts vs Cleveland this season: 2 starts, 2-0 record, 0.64 ERA, 14 IP, 1 ER, 9 hits, 3 BB, 11 K's-



-Detroit is just 1-7 their L/8 road games, but they are 7-2 vs Cleveland on the season, including 3-0 at Jacobs Field-



-Detroit holds clear cut advantage in the bullpen for the season & in both teams L/5 games: Cleveland team bullpen L/5 games: 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER, 12 hits.....Detroit team bullpen L/5 games: 2.13 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 12 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 hits, 8 BB-



-Detroit players career #'s vs Carmona: M.Cabrera (5-17, .294 AVG, 2 HR's) Granderson (12-27, .444 AVG, 3 2B's, 2 3B's, HR) Guillen (5-17, .294 AVG, HR) Inge (5-18, .278 AVG, 2 2B's) Santiago (3-11, .273 AVG) Thames is just (0-12) and Polanco is (3-13 2B)-



-Cleveland players career #'s vs Jackson: Cabrera (1-10, .100 AVG) Sizemore (3-17, .176 AVG, 2B) Victor Martinez (3-14, .214) Peralta (3-11, .273 AVG, HR) Shoppach (1-10, .100 AVG) Choo (3-2, .429 AVG, 2B) Haffner (3-7, .429 AVG, HR)-




GoodFella | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/31/09 - 7:10 PM ';
dime bet ml955 CHC (-120) SportBet vs 956 FLA
Analysis:

-Harden and Volstad both must start or no action-



-Cubs a RED HOT 6-1 their L/7 games & they have been smashing the baseball over that span-



-Harden L/3 starts= 2-0, 19 IP, 2 ER, 8 hits, 2 BB, 21 K's, 0.95 ERA & a WHIP of 0.526!!-



-Harden's last start on Sunday vs the Reds= 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 run, 0 BB, 8 K's-



-Harden on the road this season= 7 starts, 4-1 record, 2.03 ERA & a WHIP of 1.105-



-Volstad at home this season= 10 starts, 3-6 record, 5.24 ERA & a WHIP of 1.271-



-Volstad's last start on Sunday at Dodgers= 5 1/3 IP, 4 runs, 8 hits, 4 BB, 2 K's-



-Volstad L/3 starts= 18 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 19 hits, 9 BB, 9 K's, 4.42 ERA & a WHIP of 1.528-



-Cubs added 2 lefties to their bullpen recently from Pittsburgh, and they have a fairly rested bullpen due to blowing out the Astros a couple of games this week & I definitely see a bullpen edge for the Cubs tonight-

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
25 DIME ---- CARDINALS (with Boggs) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ASTROS (with Moehler)

Today is one of those strange days in Major League Baseball because the trade deadline is here. It's the day teams jockey for certain players in an attempt to either make themselves stronger for a playoff run or prepare for the future by acquiring prospects. The Cardinals have already made a big splash when they acquired OF Matt Holliday last weekend while the Astros (at the time of this writing) have yet to make a big move. To be honest, I don't think it's really going to matter because St. Louis simply doesn't lose to Houston at home. They've won the last five meetings with the Astros at home and seven of the last eight, winning with better starting pitching and better offense.

Tonight's starter, Mitchell Boggs, is a virtual unknown outside of the fantasy baseball world, but his work hasn't gone unnoticed. Boggs has four starts for the Cardinals this year, and although he's only 1-0 the team has won all four of his starts. He was sent back down to Triple-A Memphis back in May when the rotation became full again, but with Todd Wellemeyer on the disabled list, Boggs was called back up to make a crucial division start. Boggs is 3-0 in his last three starts at Class AAA Memphis. In 21 innings, he's allowed one run on 15 hits, with eight walks and 19 strikeouts.

Houston counters with Brian Moehler and his 5.26 ERA. Moehler's last start was at home vs. the Mets in which he lasted 4.1 innings, allowing eight hits and five earned runs in an 8-3 loss. Though he's won two of his last three starts, his 7-6 record just reiterates how average he really is. Average pitchers don't beat St. Louis at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals realize the importance of beating division rivals at home, especially when they're chasing the Chicago Cubs for the division lead. This one could get ugly... Cardinals in a rout.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 15 units

Rockies -155 v. Reds
Play the Rockies

[Mr. IWS]

Freddy Wills has just posted a guaranteed pick that you have a subscription to on sportsbetcapping

The pick is:

62.2% RUN 33-10 L53 3Dime plays! Steam Chalk Play $8!

[center]Match Up Starts (7:10 pm et)
3-DIME PLAY STEAM CHALK PLAY (62.2% RUN ON 3-DIME PLAYS 33-20 L53!)

The Bottom Line:
Take Rockies -155 3-DIME Steam Chalk Play
Rockies ran into a hot Mets team that got solid pitching. They were able to break out of their 25 inning scoreless streak and I think they will carry that into Cincinatti where former major leaguer (2006) relief pitcher Justin Lehr will take the mound. The 31 year old has a 3.37ERA with a 13-3 record in AAA and the way the Reds pitching has been of late it really can't hurt. Unfortunately for the Reds they will have to face Aaron Cook who has been briliant on the road this year with a 3.41 ERA, but in his last 5 road starts he has a 1.29 ERA.

Cook has a career ERA of 3.13 against the Reds, but they are struggling pretty bad as of late and I feel confidently that Cook will throw another gem on the road. After all the Reds are hitting just .250 and scoring 3.95 runs per 9 innings at home against RHP. The Reds are 8-21 in their last 29 games as under dog and 1-8 in their last 9 vs. RH starter. Like I said they have struggled big time particularly against RHP.

Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. RH starter and I do not think they'll need much here off Lehr


Freddy Wills has just posted a guaranteed pick that you have a subscription to on sportsbetcapping

The pick is:

4-Dime POD & **Bonus! (74-31 This Year!) $15 Guaranteed!

MATCH UP STARTS 7:10pm et
4-DIME MLB POD & 2-DIME BONUS
MLB Play of the Days (POD's):
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The Bottom Line:
Take Cubs -126 4-DIME POD (1-5scale)
Harden vs. Volstad here a pair of pitchers moving in opposite directions. Volstad 2-1 with a 4.42ERA in his last three and Harden 2-0 with a .53Whip and .95 ERA. If you know anything about Harden it is that when he gets hot he is one of the best RH pitchers in the game. Right now he is hot and it's because he has found his control. Just 2BB over his last 3 starts. He pitched at home where he has struggled all year against the Marlins and went just 3.2 IP gave up 6H and 4BB and 5ER. By the way the Cubs still won that game despite walking 9 batters that day.

More on Harden here because I absolutely find value on him here today. He does have a 2.03ERA on the road and a 2.23 ERA at night this year. In his last 3 road starts he has a .90ERA over 20IP. I expect a dominant performance here on Friday as he had a 1.76ERA against the Marlins prior to his poor performance in May. The Marlins have not been killing the ball either vs. RHP they have a .255 avg over their last 5 games with a BP ERA of 5.51. I'm pretty sure they are going to need the bullpen against a Cubs offense that is just on fire averaging 8 runs a game over their last 5 games with their own BP of 3.18. Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite and 14-3 overall the last 17 as a favorite -110 to -150. They are 6-1 in Hardens last 7 starts of Game 1's getting the Cubs off to a nice start.

Marlins Volstad has pitched decently but at home over his last 4 starts he has given up 17 ER in 20.2 now facing arguably one of the hottest hitting teams I'm taking my money and putting it on the Cubs with the better offense and better pitcher here tonight with some good value to boot. Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and they are 4-13 in their last 17 as a home dog.

2-Dime Bonus play Take Cubs -1.5 +135
Again whenever you have a hot pitcher and a hot offense vs. a cold pitcher and a just okay offense right now it's wise to take the run line as a small backup. I like it mainly because the Cubs have won 76% of their road wins by more than 1 run while the Marlins have lost 80% of their home losses by more than 1 run. It is a recipe for success here today.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

Tigers/Indians under

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner
2*BAL

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner-added
3*MINN

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/31/09 - 8:10 PM
triple-dime bet ml976 MIN (-155) Bodog vs 975 ANA
Analysis:
**** MLB 4* AL GAME of the MONTH ****

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman

4 Units METS
4 Units COLORADO R/L
4 Units DETROIT

[Mr. IWS]

malinsly

6* under Florida/Cubs
4* Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

Street Rosenthal


*200 Chicago Cubs -130
I am taking the Cubs for the Win tonight. I have the Cubs as 29-9 SU since 2008 as a favorite after a win and it is the first game of a series. Plus, I have a nice starter trend against Christopher Volstad that says he is 2-11 SU since 2008 at home and line less than 130 and he allowed less than 5 walks in his last start. Take the Away team for the win.

*200 St Louis Cardinals -174
Take the Cardinals for the win tonight. I have found several nice trends in the Cardinals favor. The Astros are 6-21 since 2006 season as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings. I have the Cardinals as 20-4 SU since 2005 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series. I have other trends in favor of a Cardinals win totaling 30-7 SU. Take the Cardinals and get the Win.

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports


Todays Selections
MLB Baseball
4 (****) Boston -125