SPX
08-07-2009, 05:34 PM
We'll see these guys throw down at UFC 102, as Krzysztof steps in for an injured Matt Hammill.
Let me start by saying that I think Vera is overrated. He is only win against top tier competition is a TKO over Frank Mir, who was known to be in a depressed physical and mental at the time due to his motorcycle accident. Beyond that, his record is filled with wins over good--but not great--fighters, and when he does fight an A level guy he loses, such as when he faced Tim Sylvia, Febricio Werdum and Keith Jardine.
With that said, Brandon Vera ONLY loses to top tier competition. (Some may question that Jardine is not top tier, but as inconsistent as he is, he has proven that he can beat anyone on any given night.) He is 13-3, and of those 3 losses, two could be classified as controversial. Many believe that his fight with Werdum was stopped early, as he seemed to be defending himself against Werdum's strikes and was in no real danger. And his loss to Jardine was a very close split decision, which most would agree could've gone either way. He has very good muay thai and, while he doesn't go out of his way to take fights to the ground, he's never lost a single fight by submission. By all accounts, he has an underrated ground game that allows him to stay out trouble while on the mat.
Let's consider Krzysztof Soszynski. He is 18-8-1 and comes to the UFC by way of TUF. He did well on the show, but was eventually defeated by Vinny Magalhaes in the semi-finals (and we know how well Vinny did in his post-TUF UFC showings). He has since gone on to garner UFC wins over Shane Primm, Brian Stann (for UFC LHW champ), and Andre Gusmao, all decent fighters but not even close to A-level. His recent wins bring him to a 6 fight winning streak on his professional record. He's demonstrated that he has heavy hands and knockout power and also submission skills. This is further evidenced by his win record, which includes 6 wins by KO, 8 by submission, and only 1 by decision. In short, he's a finisher.
I personally feel like this is a big step up for Krzysztof. He has losses to both Reese Andy and Mike Whitehead, both guys who Vera has beaten. I don't see him hold Vera down and slapping on his trademark kimura and I don't see him outpointing Vera either. He has a chance to win and that chance lies in a well-timed KO. Outside of that one possibility, however, I think Vera will handily win this fight. I don't see Soszynski going down easily, so I'm predicting that the fight goes the distance and he loses the fight by UD.
I think Vera easily wins this fight 70% of the time (-233) and so there's a lot of value in this line. I'll be going home after work today and dropping 1.5u on Vera because at -165 he's significantly underrated. Too many people are forgetting that his performances of late, though not mind blowing, have been against LHW contenders. And Krzysztof's wins have been against mid-level competition who will probably soon be served their walking papers.
Let me start by saying that I think Vera is overrated. He is only win against top tier competition is a TKO over Frank Mir, who was known to be in a depressed physical and mental at the time due to his motorcycle accident. Beyond that, his record is filled with wins over good--but not great--fighters, and when he does fight an A level guy he loses, such as when he faced Tim Sylvia, Febricio Werdum and Keith Jardine.
With that said, Brandon Vera ONLY loses to top tier competition. (Some may question that Jardine is not top tier, but as inconsistent as he is, he has proven that he can beat anyone on any given night.) He is 13-3, and of those 3 losses, two could be classified as controversial. Many believe that his fight with Werdum was stopped early, as he seemed to be defending himself against Werdum's strikes and was in no real danger. And his loss to Jardine was a very close split decision, which most would agree could've gone either way. He has very good muay thai and, while he doesn't go out of his way to take fights to the ground, he's never lost a single fight by submission. By all accounts, he has an underrated ground game that allows him to stay out trouble while on the mat.
Let's consider Krzysztof Soszynski. He is 18-8-1 and comes to the UFC by way of TUF. He did well on the show, but was eventually defeated by Vinny Magalhaes in the semi-finals (and we know how well Vinny did in his post-TUF UFC showings). He has since gone on to garner UFC wins over Shane Primm, Brian Stann (for UFC LHW champ), and Andre Gusmao, all decent fighters but not even close to A-level. His recent wins bring him to a 6 fight winning streak on his professional record. He's demonstrated that he has heavy hands and knockout power and also submission skills. This is further evidenced by his win record, which includes 6 wins by KO, 8 by submission, and only 1 by decision. In short, he's a finisher.
I personally feel like this is a big step up for Krzysztof. He has losses to both Reese Andy and Mike Whitehead, both guys who Vera has beaten. I don't see him hold Vera down and slapping on his trademark kimura and I don't see him outpointing Vera either. He has a chance to win and that chance lies in a well-timed KO. Outside of that one possibility, however, I think Vera will handily win this fight. I don't see Soszynski going down easily, so I'm predicting that the fight goes the distance and he loses the fight by UD.
I think Vera easily wins this fight 70% of the time (-233) and so there's a lot of value in this line. I'll be going home after work today and dropping 1.5u on Vera because at -165 he's significantly underrated. Too many people are forgetting that his performances of late, though not mind blowing, have been against LHW contenders. And Krzysztof's wins have been against mid-level competition who will probably soon be served their walking papers.