UFC 101 bet

[Luke]

taking BJ Penn -234


2 units


GL everyone ::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Lets cash it!

[SPX]

Here's what I got:


Straight Bets

Penn VS Florian

I think that, while Florian is vastly improved, he's no BJ Penn. There's nowhere he can take the fight in which he'll have an advantage over Penn and therefore I considered Penn a real steal at -200.

* BJ Penn (-200): 2.5u to win 1.25u


Silva VS Griffin

Ultimately, I feel like this is Silva's fight to lose. I don't think moving up to 205 is going to have a measurable effect on his performance. However, at +300 I do see modest value in Griffin as he will have at least a small strength and size advantage and is known for pulling upsets. At -500, Silva was far too expensive, so I'm putting a small underdog bet on Griffin just in case.

* Forrest Griffin (+300): .25u to win .75u


McCrory VS Howard

Howard's an exciting prospect, but I think that McCrory's size, reach, and experience advantage will play out in his favor. Therefore, I'm dropping a unit on Barn Cat. I'm hoping he takes this fight in dominating fashion and Howard, with his 5' 7" frame, drops to LW where he is probably better suited. I do, however, think that Howard could pull the upset, as both his striking and ground game have looked good in past fights.

* Tamdan McCrory (-175): 1u to win .57u


Riddle VS Cramer

I was fortunate enough to get in on this when the line for Riddle was set at -165. He has since moved to -250 and for good reason, I think. I believe that Riddle has both an Octagon experience advantage (2 fights to 1) as well as an advantage in terms of pure skills. I expect Riddle to control this fight easily with his wrestling and GnP. Cramer has a chance, but only if they get into a stand up war and he lands either a KO shot or dazes Riddle and rushes in for a surprise TKO.

* Matt Riddle (-165): 1.5u to win .91u


Pellegrino VS Neer

Overall, I would have to give the advantage to Neer. I think that he has superior (and more powerful) striking and can probably stay away from Pellegrino's sub attempts. However, at +190 I think that Pellegrino is being underrated here and I've decided to go with the big underdog play. My hope is that Pellegrino will come into the cage in top form and will grind out the decision.

* Kurt Pellegrino (+190): 1u to win 1.9u


Sakara VS Leites

Leites is the heavy favorite here, and rightfully so. He's a far more accomplished fighter than Sakara, evidenced by the fact that his last fight was for the MW title. However, at +300 I've decided to go ahead and throw a small underdog bet on Sakara. If he can keep it standing, I think he has a legitimate chance to outstrike Leites. And if not, I'm hoping the reports of his improved ground game are correct. I expect that Leites will get the W here, but let's hear it for Alessio Sakara.

* Alessio Sakara (+300): .25u to win .75u



Parlays

Leites-Penn-Silva: .5u to win .49u (Just to hedge a little. . .)

Riddle-Sadollah-Penn: .25u to win .78u

[Mr. IWS]

SPX, I agree with all your picks man, GL today.

Ill be on Penn myself.

[SPX]

SPX, I agree with all your picks man, GL today.

Ill be on Penn myself.

What's up with this? Can't edit posts around here, ha ha? Anyway, add this one to the list. Forgot about it:


Almeida VS Grove

I have been very tentative about this fight. Most analysis that I've read has been very divided and no one seems to be able to agree who's going to win. Ultimately, I think that if Almeida can nullify Grove's reach and get him to the ground then he will be able to control the fight. If not, he may get picked apart. I'm going to go with a half-unit on Almeida, but I will admit that I don't feel extraordinarily confident in this one.

* Ricardo Almeida (-170): .5u to win .29u


And yes, good luck to all of us. I have more riding on Penn than anyone else fighting tonight so he needs to come through.

[Mr. IWS]

What's up with this? Can't edit posts around here, ha ha? Anyway, add this one to the list. Forgot about it:




You get like a 5 minute window to edit. We had a problem with a guy posting games, and then changing a couple of his picks after the games were over.

[Luke]

[quote="IWS Zak":3bcikket]
What's up with this? Can't edit posts around here, ha ha? Anyway, add this one to the list. Forgot about it:




You get like a 5 minute window to edit. We had a problem with a guy posting games, and then changing a couple of his picks after the games were over.[/quote:3bcikket]



::swifty:: I dont remeber this I always wondered about the editing too but never asked because it wasnt a big deal

[Luke]

BJ Penn ::moneybag::

1-0 +200 Great call Zak





Great call on the two dogs SPX ::clap::

,great night overall man .Welcome to the forum I hope you keep coming back you are a great asset to the MMA forum .I love your write ups and you had some great picks

[Mr. IWS]

Great job fellas!

[SPX]

Great call on the two dogs SPX ::clap::

,great night overall man .Welcome to the forum I hope you keep coming back you are a great asset to the MMA forum .I love your write ups and you had some great picks

Thanks, dude! I appreciated that.

Let's recap:

Florian vs Penn: +1.25u
Griffin vs Silva: -.25u
McCrory vs Howard: -1u
Riddle vs Cramer: +.91u
Sakara vs Leites: +.75u
Pellegrino vs Neer: +1.9u
Almeida vs Grove: +.29u

Leites-Penn-Silva: -.5u
Riddle-Sadollah-Penn: -.25u
Silva-Riddle-Neer: -.33u (through this in at the last minute as Neer was really worrying me)

Total: +2.8u


All in all, not too bad of a night. Penn made me nervous, as I actually had Kenny winning that fight up until the choke. And Griffin got owned. But one thing I do have to say is: THANK YOU, KURT PELLEGRINO! That was a great way to start the night and made me about twice as profitable as I otherwise would've been. Sakara also came through (and fucked one of my parlays up, but whatever), as did Riddle.

All in all, if I have any complaints it's my disappointment that McCrory didn't get the W. But I guess you can't win 'em all.

[Luke]

Great call on the two dogs SPX ::clap::

,great night overall man .Welcome to the forum I hope you keep coming back you are a great asset to the MMA forum .I love your write ups and you had some great picks

Thanks, dude! I appreciated that.

Let's recap:

Florian vs Penn: +1.25u
Griffin vs Silva: -.25u
McCrory vs Howard: -1u
Riddle vs Cramer: +.91u
Sakara vs Leites: +.75u
Pellegrino vs Neer: +1.9u
Almeida vs Grove: +.29u

Leites-Penn-Silva: -.5u
Riddle-Sadollah-Penn: -.25u
Silva-Riddle-Neer: -.33u (through this in at the last minute as Neer was really worrying me)

Total: +2.8u


All in all, not too bad of a night. Penn made me nervous, as I actually had Kenny winning that fight up until the choke. And Griffin got owned. But one thing I do have to say is: THANK YOU, KURT PELLEGRINO! That was a great way to start the night and made me about twice as profitable as I otherwise would've been. Sakara also came through (and fucked one of my parlays up, but whatever), as did Riddle.

All in all, if I have any complaints it's my disappointment that McCrory didn't get the W. But I guess you can't win 'em all.


::clap:: ::clap::
great job SPX