SPX
08-11-2009, 05:28 PM
When the line for this fight was first posted, money came pouring in on Cyborg and drive her line from -125 on Bodog to a high of -190. I decided to hang back and do a little more research before jumping in the waters.
Let’s consider the facts. . .
Records
Gina: 7-0, 3 wins via KO/TKO, 1 win via sub, 3 wins via UD
Cyborg: 7-1, 5 wins via KO/TKO, 2 wins via UD, 1 loss via sub
At first glance, it appears as if Cyborg is the more experienced fighter, if only by a single fight. However, while this is technically true, let's look as who each opponent has fought:
Carano's Opponents. . .
Kelly Kobold 16-3-1
Kaitlin Young 4-2
Tonya Evinger 7-3
Julie Kedzie 9-8
Elaina Maxwell 2-3
Rosi Sexton 10-1
Leiticia Pestova 0-2-0
All but two opponents have winning records, and Kobold and Sexton both have very impressive records. Most fighters have also had several fights.
Cyborg's Opponents. . .
Hitomi Akano 15-6-0
Yoko Takahashi 15-10-1
Shayna Baszler 9-6-0
Marise Vitoria 0-1-0
Elaine Santiago 0-2-0
Chris Schroeder 0-1-0
Vanessa Porto 8-3-0
Erica Paes 1-1-0
Porto's record is pretty good and Baszler's is decent. Takahashi's is slightly better than average. Akano's is very good. However, all of her other opponents had only one or two fights under their belt and losing records. Not only that, but Takahashi and Akano were undersized going into the fight. We all remember the shenanigans surrounding the Akano fought when Cyborg missed weight by 4.5 lbs, which probably translated into a good 15 or more pounds in actual weight advantage. Furthermore, Cyborg's one loss was against Paes. That's right, of her two fights, the single win is against Santos. It's true that she can only fight who is put in front of her, but her record raises as many questions as it answers.
Previous Fight Experience
Cristiane is often billed as a muay thai fighter, and this might as well be true. She trains with Chute Box, which is well known for their brawling MT style. However, she has never actually competed in an actual MT match. She went straight into MMA.
Carano was a successful MT competitor before she was an MMA competitor, garnering a 12-1-1 record. She then made the transition to MMA and is undefeated after 7 fights. By all accounts, she has far more fight experience and against higher-caliber competition.
Fight Analysis
Carano has looked very impressive, but not invincible in the four fights that I've been able to locate: Kobold, Young, Evinger, and Kedzie. She dominated Kobold and Kedzie. For a brief moment Evinger was able to get a good position on the ground, but Carano was able to reverse the position and choke her out at the end of the first. Her fight with young was pretty back and forth for the first round and half, but the last half of the second was all Carano, in which she began to batter her opponent at will and sink in an RNC. This may very well have resulted in her second win by submission if not for the bell. However, the fight still did not make it into the third as the doctor stopped it after looking at Young's face and it was declared a TKO for Gina.
I was only able to locate two of Cyborg's fights: Akano and Baszler. We know how the Akano fight went. Cyborg basically used her for target practice. She was very aggressive and completely dominated her opponent. But it's hard to say how impressive this is when you consider that Akano is a Judo fighter, with 12 of 15 wins by submission. She was not prepared to deal with Cyborg's striking and didn't have the size to get her opponent to the ground and secure the submission. In the Baszler fight, Cyborg showed very good striking and eventually put her away via TKO near the end of the 2nd. However, in order to get there Baszler engaged her in an extensive ground war in which Cyborg, while not looking completely out of her element, was clearly uncomfortable.
Conclusion
Ultimately, I feel like this is a fight in which either competitor can win. One thing I am sure of is that in past fights they have both used their superior size to bully their opponents around, something which neither should be able to do in their upcoming bout. In the end, it should come down to technical proficiency.
I think that Cyborg's biggest advantage is her aggression. If she can come in and put pressure on Carano from the beginning, then it may be too much for Gina to handle. Cyborg's striking also seems to be very precise. However, with her MT background, Gina's striking is also very good and she undoubtedly has an advantage in terms of experience. Furthermore, Gina has made it clear that she has been working on her ground game and of the two competitors she is the only one with a win via submission. If things get too hot on the feat, it's not inconceivable that she might exploit a Cyborg's known weakness and take the fight to the ground.
I believe that in the end Carano represents a better value than Cyborg. For that reason I dropped .75u on her at +155 and feel relatively good about my decision. The bettors have made her the underdog, but I'm not sure that she is.
Let’s consider the facts. . .
Records
Gina: 7-0, 3 wins via KO/TKO, 1 win via sub, 3 wins via UD
Cyborg: 7-1, 5 wins via KO/TKO, 2 wins via UD, 1 loss via sub
At first glance, it appears as if Cyborg is the more experienced fighter, if only by a single fight. However, while this is technically true, let's look as who each opponent has fought:
Carano's Opponents. . .
Kelly Kobold 16-3-1
Kaitlin Young 4-2
Tonya Evinger 7-3
Julie Kedzie 9-8
Elaina Maxwell 2-3
Rosi Sexton 10-1
Leiticia Pestova 0-2-0
All but two opponents have winning records, and Kobold and Sexton both have very impressive records. Most fighters have also had several fights.
Cyborg's Opponents. . .
Hitomi Akano 15-6-0
Yoko Takahashi 15-10-1
Shayna Baszler 9-6-0
Marise Vitoria 0-1-0
Elaine Santiago 0-2-0
Chris Schroeder 0-1-0
Vanessa Porto 8-3-0
Erica Paes 1-1-0
Porto's record is pretty good and Baszler's is decent. Takahashi's is slightly better than average. Akano's is very good. However, all of her other opponents had only one or two fights under their belt and losing records. Not only that, but Takahashi and Akano were undersized going into the fight. We all remember the shenanigans surrounding the Akano fought when Cyborg missed weight by 4.5 lbs, which probably translated into a good 15 or more pounds in actual weight advantage. Furthermore, Cyborg's one loss was against Paes. That's right, of her two fights, the single win is against Santos. It's true that she can only fight who is put in front of her, but her record raises as many questions as it answers.
Previous Fight Experience
Cristiane is often billed as a muay thai fighter, and this might as well be true. She trains with Chute Box, which is well known for their brawling MT style. However, she has never actually competed in an actual MT match. She went straight into MMA.
Carano was a successful MT competitor before she was an MMA competitor, garnering a 12-1-1 record. She then made the transition to MMA and is undefeated after 7 fights. By all accounts, she has far more fight experience and against higher-caliber competition.
Fight Analysis
Carano has looked very impressive, but not invincible in the four fights that I've been able to locate: Kobold, Young, Evinger, and Kedzie. She dominated Kobold and Kedzie. For a brief moment Evinger was able to get a good position on the ground, but Carano was able to reverse the position and choke her out at the end of the first. Her fight with young was pretty back and forth for the first round and half, but the last half of the second was all Carano, in which she began to batter her opponent at will and sink in an RNC. This may very well have resulted in her second win by submission if not for the bell. However, the fight still did not make it into the third as the doctor stopped it after looking at Young's face and it was declared a TKO for Gina.
I was only able to locate two of Cyborg's fights: Akano and Baszler. We know how the Akano fight went. Cyborg basically used her for target practice. She was very aggressive and completely dominated her opponent. But it's hard to say how impressive this is when you consider that Akano is a Judo fighter, with 12 of 15 wins by submission. She was not prepared to deal with Cyborg's striking and didn't have the size to get her opponent to the ground and secure the submission. In the Baszler fight, Cyborg showed very good striking and eventually put her away via TKO near the end of the 2nd. However, in order to get there Baszler engaged her in an extensive ground war in which Cyborg, while not looking completely out of her element, was clearly uncomfortable.
Conclusion
Ultimately, I feel like this is a fight in which either competitor can win. One thing I am sure of is that in past fights they have both used their superior size to bully their opponents around, something which neither should be able to do in their upcoming bout. In the end, it should come down to technical proficiency.
I think that Cyborg's biggest advantage is her aggression. If she can come in and put pressure on Carano from the beginning, then it may be too much for Gina to handle. Cyborg's striking also seems to be very precise. However, with her MT background, Gina's striking is also very good and she undoubtedly has an advantage in terms of experience. Furthermore, Gina has made it clear that she has been working on her ground game and of the two competitors she is the only one with a win via submission. If things get too hot on the feat, it's not inconceivable that she might exploit a Cyborg's known weakness and take the fight to the ground.
I believe that in the end Carano represents a better value than Cyborg. For that reason I dropped .75u on her at +155 and feel relatively good about my decision. The bettors have made her the underdog, but I'm not sure that she is.