UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/156.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[Mr. IWS]

I wont be betting the event, but the I would lean towards Marquardt, and Nog.

[Luke]

I wont be betting the event, but the I would lean towards Marquardt, and Nog.


Without looking at tapes of previous fights before making a final decision my first opinion is NOG stands no chance of winning this fight.

While Couture is 46+ years old he fought a very good fight against Lesnar and would have beat him imo if he was 10 years younger and 20 pounds heavier. Randy is also smart enough not to get caught in a sub mission which is NOG's best chance to win.

Nog on the other and has looked like complete crap in his last two fights. He was totally dominated my Mir and was being completely dominated by Sylvia until he pulled off a submission. He also looked less than spectaular againt Herring from what I remember getting rocked bad once.

While both fighters are on the downside of their careers I just think NOG has been rocked way too many times over the years .I can see Randy taking Nog to the floor and ground and pounding him the whole fight

[SPX]

Without looking at tapes of previous fights before making a final decision my first opinion is NOG stands no chance of winning this fight.

While Couture is 46+ years old he fought a very good fight against Lesnar and would have beat him imo if he was 10 years younger and 20 pounds heavier. Randy is also smart enough not to get caught in a sub mission which is NOG's best chance to win.

Nog on the other and has looked like complete crap in his last two fights. He was totally dominated my Mir and was being completely dominated by Sylvia until he pulled off a submission. He also looked less than spectaular againt Herring from what I remember getting rocked bad once.

While both fighters are on the downside of their careers I just think NOG has been rocked way too many times over the years .I can see Randy taking Nog to the floor and ground and pounding him the whole fight

I agree with pretty much everything.

Nogueira is only 32 but looks and moves like he's 50. If he was smart then he'd have taken the Machida course and tried to take as little damage as possible, but instead he's always had a habit of blocking punches with his face. In the Herring fight he got rocked big time with a head kick and if Herring hadn't been so afraid of Nog's ground game and had pounced on him with all his might then that probably would've been the end of the fight. He let a golden opportunity go there, though. Then in the Sylvia fight, as you said, he was losing the fight until he pulled that sub out of nowhere.

As for the Mir fight, well, word on the street is that Nog was suffering from a staph infection and had no reason to even be in the cage. That's probably true, because the Nog who was in that cage didn't even look like the Nog who fought Herring and Sylvia. So I do expect a considerably better version of himself to go up against Couture. However, Couture looked pretty well on top of things in the Lesnar fight. He may not have looked like he did 10 years ago, but he looked like a coherent, skilled fighter. I'd give Couture the edge both in striking and wrestling. And like you said, he's smart enough to avoid Nog's subs.

[Luke]

Who do you guys think the betting favorite will be Nog or Randy? If its Randy I might bet it in the next day or two if you think it will be Nog I'm going to wait

[SPX]

Who do you guys think the betting favorite will be Nog or Randy? If its Randy I might bet it in the next day or two if you think it will be Nog I'm going to wait

I have little doubt it's going to be Randy, at least if you go off the chatter on Sherdog. That, plus the fact that casual bettors will be severely impacted by Nog's last performance. My guess is that the line's going to stay pretty much where it is for the most part, but you never know. There may be a group out there who are going to put a lot of stock in the staph infection and the fact that Nog is always able to pull subs out of nowhere and bring Couture's line down.

[Mr. IWS]

Odds are posted up top.

Coture is the fav.

[Luke]

Odds are posted up top.

Coture is the fav.


Nah I meant which way do you think people will puch the line? I actually found that this line opened at -200/+180 and people have bet Nog down to +160

[Mr. IWS]

Ah, I see.

I think they will bet Nog down.

[Luke]

Why is this only a 3 round fight???Is it because there is no title on the line?

[SPX]

Why is this only a 3 round fight???Is it because there is no title on the line?

Yeah, exactly. All non-title fights are 3 rounders.

[Luke]

I think Chris Tuchscherer is worth a look at +305.Gonzaga has done nothing his whole career besides one head kick to Cro Cop.He has lost 3 of 5 since then with the two wins being against no bodies.I think the price is high because Gonzaga is still living off he Cro Cop KO

[SPX]

I think Chris Tuchscherer is worth a look at +305.Gonzaga has done nothing his whole career besides one head kick to Cro Cop.He has lost 3 of 5 since then with the two wins being against no bodies.I think the price is high because Gonzaga is still living off he Cro Cop KO

Someone said something similar on another board I frequent. I really don't know anything about Tuchscherer, but I agree that Gonzaga has been questionable. Goodluck getting that +305 in the US, though. That's a Pinnacle line. You can get +295 through 5dimes. The best I can personally get is +285 from Bookmaker.

[Luke]

I think Chris Tuchscherer is worth a look at +305.Gonzaga has done nothing his whole career besides one head kick to Cro Cop.He has lost 3 of 5 since then with the two wins being against no bodies.I think the price is high because Gonzaga is still living off he Cro Cop KO

Someone said something similar on another board I frequent. I really don't know anything about Tuchscherer, but I agree that Gonzaga has been questionable. Goodluck getting that +305 in the US, though. That's a Pinnacle line. You can get +295 through 5dimes. The best I can personally get is +285 from Bookmaker.

I can probably get +330 at matchbook right now

[SPX]

I can probably get +330 at matchbook right now

Matchbook? Not familiar. What books do you guys use/recommend?

I have accounts with Bodog, Bookmaker/BetCRIS, and Sportsbook.

[Mr. IWS]

Bookmaker and sportsbook are the ones I use when I bet online. Probably over the last 6-7 months, Ive been using my local guy.

[Luke]

I can probably get +330 at matchbook right now

Matchbook? Not familiar. What books do you guys use/recommend?

I have accounts with Bodog, Bookmaker/BetCRIS, and Sportsbook.


I have sportsinteraction and matchbook.I only use sportsinteraction to bet dogs because they usually have high lines on favorites.You need to go check out matchbook.com they usually have 10 cent lines even on MMA and boxing meaning if Gonzaga is a -340 favorite you should be able to get Tuchscherer at +330 .I usually get way better lines at matchbook than any book is offering .

[SPX]

I have sportsinteraction and matchbook.I only use sportsinteraction to bet dogs because they usually have high lines on favorites.You need to go check out matchbook.com they usually have 10 cent lines even on MMA and boxing meaning if Gonzaga is a -340 favorite you should be able to get Tuchscherer at +330 .I usually get way better lines at matchbook than any book is offering .

I will look into it tonight. I always like options. I wonder why they aren't listed on bestfightodds.

[SPX]

Okay, so all bets are down and here's what I'm going with officially:

1u on Couture @ -185 to win .54u
1.5u on Jardine @ -175 to win .86u
1u on Marquardt @ -155 to win .65u
1.5u on Vera @ -165 to win .91u
.25u on Leben @ -150 to win .17u
.5u on Leben @ -145 to win .35u

Couture-Jardine-Marquardt-Vera-Leben Parlay -- .15u to win 1.49u

In a perfect world I'd take 4.97u off this event. I'll keep my fingers crossed!

[Mr. IWS]

The plays look solid bro. I would only disagree on Vera slightly and Couture, but not enough for me to make a wager, so I hope you hit them all.

[SPX]

The plays look solid bro. I would only disagree on Vera slightly and Couture, but not enough for me to make a wager, so I hope you hit them all.

I can envision a way that everyone one of these fights can go the other way. Couture and Marquardt could get submitted, Jardine could get bumrushed, Vera could get TKO/KOed, and Leben could get laid on and GnPd.

I don't feel super confident in any of these fights, but I feel relatively confident in all of them. Probably the one I have most doubts about is the Leben fight, hence the small bet.

[Luke]

Okay, so all bets are down and here's what I'm going with officially:

1u on Couture @ -185 to win .54u
1.5u on Jardine @ -175 to win .86u
1u on Marquardt @ -155 to win .65u
1.5u on Vera @ -165 to win .91u
.25u on Leben @ -150 to win .17u
.5u on Leben @ -145 to win .35u

Couture-Jardine-Marquardt-Vera-Leben Parlay -- .15u to win 1.49u

In a perfect world I'd take 4.97u off this event. I'll keep my fingers crossed!


Best of luck SPX

I really think you should check out mathcbook. Let me give you a couple of examples

Right now at matchbook

Couture is -160 instead of -185 from your book

Jardine -149 instead of -175.


Betting both at matchbook would win you .23 unit more if they both win .Now I know .23 unit is not a lot of money but you bet alot of fights and over the course of a year this can really add up to alot of money.



Dont think I'm trying to push matchbook on you because I'm not just trying to help you get the best odds and most money for you bets ::handshake::


Again GL I am still research/watching videos but I agree with you on most sides

[Luke]

I think Chris Tuchscherer is worth a look at +305.Gonzaga has done nothing his whole career besides one head kick to Cro Cop.He has lost 3 of 5 since then with the two wins being against no bodies.I think the price is high because Gonzaga is still living off he Cro Cop KO

Someone said something similar on another board I frequent. I really don't know anything about Tuchscherer, but I agree that Gonzaga has been questionable. Goodluck getting that +305 in the US, though. That's a Pinnacle line. You can get +295 through 5dimes. The best I can personally get is +285 from Bookmaker.


Line is up to +310 on matchbook for Tuchscherer .I fully expect by fight night that I will be able to get +340 to +350 on him

[SPX]

Line is up to +310 on matchbook for Tuchscherer .I fully expect by fight night that I will be able to get +340 to +350 on him

Went to Matchbook and it didn't look like a typical sportsbook. Is there something weird about it?

[Mr. IWS]

Looks like Nog's training camp isnt going too well. I dont know how true this is, but I still have a feeling in my gut that he will pull out the win. Not enough to bet on it thought....LOL



http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/8/22/99 ... ueiras-ufc (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/8/22/999035/is-antonio-rodrigo-nogueiras-ufc)

At the press conference call Nogueira emphasized that he is feeling the best he has in years:

"I'm 33 years old, and I have a lot to do in my career still," Nogueira said. "At least, I've got to fight a couple of more years.

"I know I'm still young and feel healthy. I still feel when I fight I'm very competitive. ... I'm in the best shape since 2005. I feel very good, and I did not feel like (that) in the last four years."

But rumors are swirling that his camp hasn't gone well and that he has been knocked out repeatedly in sparring sessions, a far cry from the iron-chinned Minotauro of old.

We will find out almost exactly one week from tonight. Personally, I'm hoping for the best Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira we've ever seen, but I just can't convince myself it's very likely.

The other question is this -- even if it is the best Big Nog we've ever seen, could that man beat Randy Couture? Perhaps if they had met ten years ago when Couture's submission defense game was much more limited. But in 2009, it's hard to draw a path to victory for Nogueira. He might be able to outpoint Couture on the feet, but he's never displayed KO power. There's no way he'll dominate the takedowns against Couture and it's highly unlikely he'll be able to sweep Randy from his back. That leaves the old hail mary triangle or arm bar from his back. But it's not 2003 and Randy ain't Mirko Cro Cop.

Video of Big Nog training in the full entry.

[SPX]

Hmm, interesting. Thanks for posting.

Looks like it might be time to drop another .5u on Couture.

[Luke]

Line is up to +310 on matchbook for Tuchscherer .I fully expect by fight night that I will be able to get +340 to +350 on him

Went to Matchbook and it didn't look like a typical sportsbook. Is there something weird about it?


Its not really a sports book its called an exchange .You have to put up offers and have someone take them .For example you want Tuchsherer at +350 for 100 profit you put that offer in and on matchbook it will say Gonzaga -350 for 350 .That is your bet and as soon as someone takes Gonzaga -350 for 350 you bet is placed .

Of course you dont have to put up any offers you can just take the ones that are already up and then it works just like a sports book.

Right now at matchbook the Tuchscherer -Gonzaga line looks like this

Tuchshere +310 500

Gonzaga -350 700 -365 730


That means someone wants Gonzaga at -310 for 500 profit and someone wants Tuchscherer at +350 for 200 and +365 for 200
Now you can take whatever is up already and get those odds but since the best you can get on Gonzaga is -350 I would put Tuchsherer is at about +335 and I gaurntee someone will take it because the bests odds on Zaga right now are -350 and when you place you offer of +335 up it will make the Zaga odds go to -335

It is a little confusing at first to figure out but when you get 20-25 cent better lines than anyone else its worth it

[SPX]

Maybe I'll look into Matchbook a bit more. Sounds interesting.

[SPX]

In light of recent rumors, I went ahead and dropped another .5u on Couture.

[Luke]

I would tend to believe everything in this acrticle because its the exact way I have been thinking of NOG.I dont know why everyone is saying he's only 33 .Age has nothing to do whether a fighter is old or not . Look at Eric Morales and Benard Hopkins in boxing . Morales was hit way too much in his career and by 31 he was a shot fighter .This is the same guy the beat Pacman in a uninamimus decision.Hopkins on the other hand is a defensive fighter and hasnt taken many shots in his career and is still a top fighter at 43
NOG hasnt looked good in his last 3 fights and should have lost all 3 .Fighters dont look bad for 3 fights and usually make combacks. I dont see why people believe NOG has something left at 33 but everyone will admit Wanderlei Silva who is also 33 is a shot fighter who has taken too many shots. NOG and Silva are two of the same fighters imo

[Mr. IWS]

Everything in my brain, and what I read on Nog tells me he is finished, but I just have this feeling in my guy he will pull this out.

[Luke]

Everything in my brain, and what I read on Nog tells me he is finished, but I just have this feeling in my guy he will pull this out.


Could be I have been dead wrong many times before

[Mr. IWS]

This is the Sherdog preview of Nog vs. Couture


Randy "The Natural" Couture.
Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

The Breakdown: Two of MMA’s heavyweight legends look to prove naysayers wrong one more time, as elder face smasher Couture takes on a suddenly shopworn Nogueira. Despite being just a few months removed from his 33rd birthday, Nogueira’s years of absorbing beatings like a Brazilian Jake LaMotta seemed to catch up with him when Frank Mir soundly trounced him at UFC 92. Couture is not coming off the fight of his life, either, as he failed to stop the centaur known as Brock Lesnar from claiming the heavyweight crown that once rested on his own head. With that said, Couture has not left his last few fights looking like a back-alley hospital patient.

With Mir having already written the script for starching Nogueira, watch for Couture to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and rely on his boxing from there. Whether or not playing the same tune as Mir works for Couture will depend on just how much of his old self Nogueira has rediscovered in his eight months away from the cage. In a sport where nostalgia runs deep but counts for little, Nogueira has to prove he still has something left to offer after already giving so much.

The X Factor: Lost in all the dismissive chatter about Nogueira is the fact that Couture is a 46-year-old man competing in a sport that skews younger than the cast of whatever atrocious teen-age drama the CW airs. Sooner or later, Couture is going to hit the same wall Brett Favre has already run into several times. How capable Nogueira is of sending him on his way remains anyone’s guess, but he’s proven everyone wrong countless times before.

***

The Bottom Line: Nogueira fans should start practicing their cringing, as Couture is going to turn this into a one-sided dirty boxing display that the Brazilian won’t be able to do much of anything about. No miracle submissions this time around, as Nogueira ends up getting saved by the referee’s sense of compassion but not before taking two rounds worth of Couture’s old-school bullying.

[SPX]

That's pretty much what I'm thinking too, but I am still afraid of that "miracle sub."