8-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Weston
WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 15 Dime Angels
5 Dime Cardinals

Analysis by 2:30 p.m. ET

[Mr. IWS]

Fazzini
Wednesday's play 15 Dime -- Braves (Jurrjens) -1 1/2 runs over METS (Parnell)

BRAVES
NOTE: List only Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher

Jair Jurrjens (9-8, 2.99 ERA) is one of the main reasons the Braves have been able to remain in the hunt for a playoff berth.

The right-hander has pitched better than his record indicates, however, and his last start was indicative of that, as he allowed two runs and five hits in seven innings Friday in a no-decision against Philadelphia.

Jurrjens has had good success vs. the Mets, however, going 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in five career starts against New York. He gave up just two hits in six scoreless innings on July 17 in his last outing against the NL East rivals.

Bobby Parnell (3-4, 3.50) will make his third straight start for the Mets after 54 relief appearances. The right-hander allowed three hits in six scoreless innings Friday against San Francisco.

Parnell has pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings in seven relief outings vs. Atlanta this season.

With New York's lineup being depleted of most of its real offensive threats, I just can't see the Mets scoring many runs today against Jurrjens. Take the Braves on the run line in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

st bernadine sports early plays
from another site

big time 12-2 run - cws/kc o-8.5
abats computer simulator - white sox +125

lillefty(paid and confirmed by me)
2* Kansas city

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

Wednesday's Card
5 Dime Diamondbacks-Phillies Under

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordans 3 small picks for today
Run Line Winners ...
100? PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (WITH Lee for sure going for Philly) - Point blank, I’m not ignoring the Cliff Lee revival in the City of Brotherly Love. He is in after eight strong innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field last Thursday, when Lee allowed six hits, one run and three walks while striking out eight. Since moving over to the National League from the Indians, the Cy Young southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in three starts for the Phillies.

He’s dominated foes, allowing 16 hits, three runs and six walks in 24 innings. He’s fanned 24 batters and opponents are hitting a bleak .193 against him. Here’s the irony, last season CC Sabathia was traded to Milwaukee, he went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his first three starts. He allowed 17 hits, six runs, five earned runs, one home run and six walks in 24 innings. He struck out 24 and opponents hit .205 against him. It must be a trade-thing, cause it’s working, and the Phils are this year’s beneficiary. Lay the run line, as Arizona gets nowhere and the Phils roll.

100? TAMPA BAY RAYS RUN LINE (WITH Niemann for sure going for Tampa) - I’ll bank on the defending American League champions tonight, as Jeff Niemann will be looking to turn things around as he comes in off another four-run outing as he was tagged for four runs in 5-1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Angels last Wednesday. He started the month of August surrendering just one run over eight innings to the Royals at the start of August, but the right-handed rookie has now given up four runs in back-to-back outings, and has a 6.17 ERA in those two starts.

I’ve watched the 26-year-old pitch, and he’s going to dominate the Orioles once again. He’s pretty familiar with the O’s, as this will be Niemann's fifth game – his fourth start - of his career against them -- the team he's faced the most; he's 3-1 with a 5.30 ERA against. Okay, so I don’t necessarily like the ERA, but I think I’ll be okay against Baltimore starter Chris Tillman. Lay the run line tonight for a blowout win.

100? TORONTO BLUE JAYS RUN LINE (WITH Halladay for sure going for Toronto) - Having settled back down since the trading deadline, Roy Halladay appears to be back to his old self again. He’s in off a Halladay-like dominating performance on Friday night, when he held the aforementioned Rays to a meager one earned run over eight innings for his second successive win. It also marked the Major League-leading 21st time in 23 starts this season the former Cy Young winner and 2009 candidate has logged at least seven frames.

Over his past two starts, the 32-year-old veteran is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Though he was 1-4 with a 3.16 ERA in his previous eight trips to the mound, he’s shed those doldrums and will come in with plenty of confidence in facing the Red Sox. In his lone start this season against Boston on July 19, Halladay turned in a complete-game victory.

It might be pricey to lay a run line against this team, but with Clay Buchholz on the hill, the Jays should have no trouble getting some runs in my opinion. They’re in revenge, as his first start in his return to the rotation was here in Rogers Centre, on July 17. He stifled them to one earned run over 5-2/3 innings and scattered just four hits for the win. The tide turns tonight. Lay the run line.

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports


Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
MLB Baseball
3 (***) Kansas City -135 ..Early Game 2:05 EST
3 (***) LA Angels -135

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman

3* LA Angels

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Craig Davis Wednesday's Lineup
100 DIME ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over MARINERS (With Snell)

Well, here it is. I've been waiting for this matchup since last week when Justin Verlander dominated the Boston Red Sox IN Fenway. After a few shaky outings, Verlander was clearly back to his dominating self and I know he can't wait to get back home to give the Tigers fans their money's worth. You see, the last time he pithed at Comerica, Verlander was absolutely abused by the Minnesota Twins to the tune of seven hits and five earned runs over six innings of work. Final Score: Twins 11 Tigers 0 --- That is very rare air for Verlander and will not happen again this year. Prior to that Verlander also allowed five earned runs, but this time it was over 8 innings of work in a 6-5 win over Baltimore. The thing about that start is... all five of those earned runs came in a very rough first inning. After that, Verlander was light's out for seven innings and kept the Tigers in the game long enough to scratch out a 1-run win. Tonight won't be that close, and Verlander won't allow five runs in the whole game, let alone one inning.

The Tigers won in dramatic fashion last night, beating the Mariners despite a fantastic effort from Mariners starter Felix Hernandez. It was a 1-1 tie into the eighth inning when the Mariners added two runs in the top of the 9th to take a 3-1 lead. Detroit, however, proceeded to score four in the bottom of the 8th and walked away with a 5-3 win. You see, it's that type of game that plays right into our hands tonight. Seattle is physically and emotionally beaten down. They could ill-afford to lose that game as it was one they had in the bag going to the bottom of that inning. Though they are three games over .500, they are way behind the Angels for the division lead and are losing any chance they have to get back into the Wild Card race. Detroit, on the other hand, is going to carry the momentum from that 8th inning over to the first few innings of tonight's contest. That win kept them three games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central and really gave them confidence and momentum for the rest of this series. Think about this... Rick Porcello was able to hold the Mariners to just one run over 5 2/3 innings of work... how much more do you think a guy like Justin Verlander can do to this struggling offense?

Seattle has scored three or fewer runs in six of their last seven games and now face possibly the best pitcher they've seen since their series with the Yankees (Sabathia and Burnett shut them down). Verlander's career numbers vs. Seattle are quite good, including a 6-2 record in 8 starts, a 3.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. In fact, in those eight games Verlander has surrendered just one home run, and that spans 54 innings. At home this season, Verlander has been virtually untouchable (and unbeatable), posting a very respectable 2.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and opponents are hitting barely over .200 against him at Comerica. His record is 7-1, with the lone loss coming in his last start vs. Minnesota. This guy is a gamer and you can bet he's out to do better than he did in his last start vs. Boston just to prove to the fans of the Motor City just how good he is.

For Seattle, they run out recently-acquired righty Ian Snell, formerly of the Pittsburgh Pirates, in an attempt to steal a game from the Tigers to keep their slim playoff chances alive. So, what can we say about Snell other than the fact he stinks and will likely be without a job at the end of the year. He was so bad in Pittsburgh (2-8, 5.36 ERA) that they allowed Seattle to acquire his services (along with Jack Wilson) for a handful of prospects. Since pitching for Seattle, Snell has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched for an ERA just slightly under 9. Control has been his biggest problem, walking 12 batters in those 13.1 innings since joining the Mariners, including 6 in 1.1 innings vs. the Rays. His three starts in the American League have all resulted in at least two-run Seattle losses (including 11-1 to the Yankees and 10-4 to Tampa) and tonight will be no different. He's 0-2 in his career vs. the Tigers and has won just two games in 18 starts this year... TWO!!! What's to make me think tonight will be any different? And get this... pitching coach Rick Adair is working with his delivery to "tweak" how soon he gets the ball out of his glove ready to throw in an attempt to help his control. Do you know what that does? That kills velocity... and that's not something you want to do against a home run hitting lineup like Detroit. I love it when I go against a pitcher who's in the process of messing with his mechanics... that means if he begins to struggle with these new mechanics, he's going to be playing mind games with himself as to whether or not he should go back to his old style of pitching. It honestly couldn't play out any more perfect for our side.

Back to Justin Verlander... he's not only trying to prove to the Tigers fans that his last home outing was a fluke, he's also gunning for 200 strikeouts in this game (currently sits at 194) so there's even extra motivation for him to get the job done. The Tigers are 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 starts as a big favorite (-200 or better), 15-6 in his last 21 starts vs. the AL West and 22-8 in their last 30 at home vs. a team with a winning record. Folks, this one is over before it starts. Verlander will not only dominate the first inning, he'll dominate the entire game and with Monday's day off, he could go the entire 9 innings. Tigers in a laugher, 9-2.

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF BENTON
Wednesday's MLB winners ... 15 DIME: CARDINALS (Wainwright) over Dodgers ... NOTE: List Adam Wainwright as the starting pitcher for St. Louis. If Wainwright does not start, this play is VOID!

5 DIME: Angels-Indians OVER the total. ... NOTE: Both Jered Weaver (Angels) and Jeremy Sowers (Indians) must start this game, or this play is VOID!


Cardinals

Let’s see if these numbers blow you away like they did me:

The St. Louis Cardinals are 17-8 when Adam Wainwright pitches this year, including 10-1 on the road. Going back to last season, they’ve won more than 70 percent of his starts overall (38-16); they’re 25-10 in his last 35 starts on foreign turf; they’re 18-5 the last 23 times he’s pitched as an underdog; 9-0 in his last nine as a road pup; and when Wainwright faces quality competition, the Cardinals are virtually unbeatable, winning 24 of his last 27 starts against winning teams.

Impressed? Not as much as you will be after reading this: Over his last 10 starts, Wainwright has given up two earned runs or fewer … 10 times in a row! During this span, he’s posted a 1.34 ERA, allowing a total of 11 runs in 74 innings, including yielding exactly one home run! He hasn’t walked a batter in his last three trips to the mound (covering 20 2/3 innings); he’s 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last four road starts; and it was just three weeks ago in St. Louis when he dominated the Dodgers 10-0, pitching eight scoreless innings. In fact, in his last three starts against the Dodgers spanning exactly two years, all Wainwright has done is give up a total of three runs in 24 innings (1.13 ERA).

So you’re probably wondering: How in the hell can Wainwright be an underdog tonight? Well, it’s because Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw is having a very nice year himself. However, the 21-year-old hasn’t exactly been dominant lately. He’s failed to make it out of the fifth inning in two of his last three outings, and the Dodgers have lost five straight games behind the kids. And even though Kershaw has been absolutely incredible at home this year (1.86 ERA), it hasn’t much mattered, as his record is just 3-3 at Dodger Stadium – and his team is just 7-6 in his 13 home starts.

Yes, Kershaw has enjoyed a lot of success against St. Louis in his brief career, giving up just three runs in three starts covering 21 innings. And yes, that includes eight shutout innings on July 29 in St. Louis. Yet despite that effort, the Dodgers STILL lost 3-2 in 15 innings, blowing 1-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth and a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the 11th.

Then again, losing to the Redbirds is something L.A. is very used to. Even after last night’s 7-3 victory, the Dodgers are still just 18-39 in the last 56 meetings and 4-9 the last 13 times they’ve hosted Pujols and Co.

Finally, before last night’s result, look at what these two teams had done in their previous 10 games: St. Louis was 9-1 (4-0 on the road), batting .326 as a team and had a 2.42 bullpen ERA. The Dodgers were 3-7 overall (0-4 at home), batting .238 as a team and had a 5.77 bullpen ERA.

I’m sorry, but there is just way too much to like about the Cardinals in this game, starting with Wainwright and ending with this very generous underdog price. St. Louis gets back on the winning track with a 4-1 victory.


Angels-Indians OVER the total

How Cleveland and Los Angeles stayed under the total last night was a miracle. First off, the score was 5-3 before the final out was recorded in the third inning. The teams combined for 25 hits, eight walks and one error. And both starters were out of the game by the 5 1/3 inning mark. So what happened? Well, the teams combined to leave a whopping 21 runners on base; they combined for three double plays; and individually, seven hitters left a total nine runners in scoring position with two outs.

In a nutshell: Neither squad could get a key hit, especially from the fourth inning on. Well, don’t expect that to happen again tonight. After all, when these teams met in Anaheim three weeks ago, they combined for 14, 13 and 12 runs in three games, with all three flying over the total. On top of that, the Angels – who are the most profitable “over” team in baseball – have stayed under the total in consecutive games just once since June 7! We’re talking a stretch of 63 games – or more than one-quarter of the season!

During this 63-game stretch, the “over” is 43-17-3 for the Angels, including 19-8-2 in their last 29 on the road, 16-6-1 in their last 23 games against the A.L. Central, and 18-5-2 in their last 24 on the road when the total is set at nine runs or higher! Then there’s Halos starter Jered Weaver. Not only is he coming off his ugliest outing of the season (eight runs allowed in 3 1/3 innings at Baltimre), but his team has now gone over the total in 10 of his last 11 starts overall, including five in a row on the road (where, by the way, Weaver now sports a 6.13 ERA). In fact, when Weaver starts on the road, the teams combine for an AVERAGE of 13 runs per game!

Yes, Indians starter Jeremy Sowers has been pitching better of late. But he still has an inflated 4.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP for the season. And he hasn’t faced a team lately that’s hitting like the Angels (.292 team average on the road, including .289 against lefties; .316 overall team average over a 10-game stretch prior to last night).

Look for the scoreboard to light up big time by the lake. Take this one OVER the posted price.

[Mr. IWS]

STU

CARDS @ DODGERS 10:10 ET
NO MATTER WHO PITCHES TONIGHT FOR THE DODGERS, ST LOUIS WILL WIN THIS GAME. ST LOUIS HAS WON 5 OF THEIR LAST 6 AND 9 OF THEIR LAST 11. THEY ARE BREATHING DOWN THE DODGERS NECKS FOR THE BEST RECORD IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE. QUIETLY ADAM WAINWRIGHT IS HAVING A CY YOUNG YEAR. 14-7 WITH AN ERA OF 2.62 AND HIS TEAM HAS WON 17 OF HIS 25 STARTS. HE IS 9-1 ON THE ROAD THIS YEAR. IN HIS LAST 20 INNINGS HE IS 2-1 WITH AN ERA OF 1.35. HE WILL GET HIS 10TH ROAD WIN OF THE YEAR TONIGHT.
ST LOUIS +120 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Alfred kelley's $5,000 bet of the day!!!

DETROIT TIGERS VS SEATTLE MARINERS- 6:05 P.M. CST

TAKE DETROIT TIGERS ON THE MONEY LINE.

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO'S HIGHROLLER MLB PICK for TODAY
Highrollers Baseball

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

15 Units Rockies {J.Marquis} (-1½ Runs, +100) over Nationals {C.Balester}

7:05 PM -- Nationals Park

Colorado Rockies (66-53) -1 ½ Runs -115 over WASHINGTON NATIONALS (43-76)

Pitching for Colorado: RH Jason Marquis (13-8, 3.55) Pitching for Washington: RH Collin Balester (1-2, 6.00) Rockies Trend Profile: Last 10: 6-4, Streak: Won 2, Road Record: 34-30, Against RHP: 46-35. Nationals Trend Profile: Last 10: 6-4, Streak: Lost 1, Home Record: 26-34, Against RHP: 34-58. Starting Time: 7:05 TV: Fox Sports Rocky Mountains, Mid-Atlantic Sports Network2 Comments: All the figures point to a blowout win for Colorado in this one. The Rockies bring a big-time power hitting game to Washington and are facing a pitcher who has a history of giving up the long ball, allowing five home runs through the first two innings of his last two starts and 21 in a major league career of 104 innings. Colorado starter Jason Marquis is at the top of his game right now and in his last eight starts has an E.R.A. of 2.37.
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Valentino
WEDNESDAY'S 25 DIME MLB WINNER ...
25 DIME -- DIAMONDBACKS (with Dan Haren as Arizona's starting pitcher)

NOTE: When making your wager, be sure to specify Dan Haren as Arizona's starting pitcher. If Haren fails to start this game, this will be a "no play"

As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more on a favorite than you have to or take back less than you can on an underdog!

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock

4*Cincy
4*St Louis

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker AAA Sports (COMP) 9-1 L10
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates - Pirates +1.5 (Gallardo/Maholm) -110
Game Date: 8/19/2009
Note: What is going on with these Brewers? They are, as we say in the Dugout "Stinking Up The Joint." Losers of their last 3 games and two of them to these Pirates. They are not only losing, they are losing badly. The Brewers, who had won 20 of 23 over Pittsburgh prior to this series own the majors' seventh worst record since July 1 at 16-23. And they are a Huge Favorite on the road? Well shoot myself!! The Pirate offense is coming around in a big way and they are having fun playing baseball. We have seen them hit 5 Homers in the first two games of the series and we have seen them POUND Righthanded pitching here at PNC to the tune of a .286 batting average all year. I do know that Maholm is struggling right now, but he has been much better at this park than on the road and he will be throwing at Milwaukee's weakest hitting point, verses lefties. Gallardo is a quality pitcher but it takes more than a starter to make a team and the fact is, the Brewers have won just 3 of his last 9 starts. As good as Yovani is, he does have control issues a lot and he has been having those lately with 7 BB's in his last 2 efforts. The Brewers are slowly, no they are fastly, seeing their Playoff Hopes go down the drain. There are some harsh words from the Milwaukee Press, and some Dugout problems as well with everybody pointing fingers at everyone. This Team is not in a good frame of mind. I am going to grab these 1.5 runs tonight and I feel right smart in doing so.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime.com Wednesday Plays MLB Baseball 100* Play Milwaukee (-165) over Pittsburgh (MLB TOP PLAY) Pittsburgh has lost 18 of the last 22 games and they have also lost 18 of the last 20 games as a home underdog of +150 to +200. Paul Maholm has lost 4 of the last 5 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.41. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50* Play Colorado (-170) over Washington (MLB BONUS PLAY) Colorado has won 4 consecutive games vs. Washington this season and they have also won 18 of the last 22 games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Colin Balester has lost 7 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is also 0-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 8.59. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50* Play Toronto (-160) over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY) Roy Halladay has won 20 of the last 28 games as a home favorite of -150 or higher and he is also 13-5 in all starts this season with an ERA of 2.65. Clay Bucholz has lost 12 of the last 15 road games and he has also lost 5 of the last 6 games when pitching on a Wednesday.

[Mr. IWS]

Doc's Sports

6 Unit Play. #929 Take New York -125 over Oakland (10:05 pm MLB.tv)

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Weston
WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 15 Dime Angels
5 Dime Cardinals

Angels at Indians
ANGELS - It was close, but the Angels got over on the Indians last night for their third straight win over the Tribe this season. Tonight, the Halos will make it four in a row.

Going back to last season the Angels have gone 6-3 their last 9 games against Cleveland.

Consider, too, Anaheim comes into this game on a roll, having won 7 of its last 8 games and is 14-5 its last 19 games overall.

The Indians, on the other hand, come into this game 9-17 their last 26 games at home.

Also consider that Cleveland scheduled starter Jeremy Sowers has been unlucky for the Indians. The team is just 3-6 his last 9 starts overall and is 3-6 at home with Sowers on the mound. The Indians have also lost each of his last three home starts.

On the other side, the Angels are 7-1 their last 8 games with tonight’s scheduled starter Jered Weaver on the mound.

Tonight, the Angels will get over once again with Weaver on the mound as they get their fourth straight win over Cleveland.


Cardinals at Dodgers
CARDINALS - After getting off to a blazing start this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been inconsistent and have struggled since the middle of July.

The Dodgers are just 9-14 their last 25 games and are just 3-7 their last 10 games at home, having lost 4 of their last 5 in Los Angeles. Tonight, the Dodgers will lose another game at home to the visiting Cardinals.

These two have split the first two games of this series, but for the year, St. Louis is still 4-2 against the Dodgers and is 10-4 its last 14 games against Los Angeles, going back the last few seasons.

Consider, too, the Dodgers come into this game having lost each of its last 5 games in which Clayton Kershaw has started, while the Cardinals have gone 7-2 their last 9 games in which scheduled starter Adam Wainwright has taken the mound.

St. Louis comes into this game having gone 9-2 its last 11 games and is 4-1 its last 5 games on the road. Tonight, the Cards will chalk up another win against the spiraling Dodgers.

[Mr. IWS]

Alex Smart

4* St. Louis Cardinals +110

The St. Louis Cardinals go head to head with the LA Dodgers in southern California tonight in a contest that Im betting favors the road underdog. The Cardinals starting pitcher, a viable Cy Young award candidate Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62 ERA), is one of MLB's most consistent starters, and when under rated by the lines makers is a very viable hurler to back as is evident by his teams 9-0 record as a road underdog. Wainwright is 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six on the outings and has seen his team win all 7 of his road starts at night this season. The right-hander's ERA and 149 strikeouts rank fifth in the NL in their respective categories. That is not a good omen for dodgers starting thrower Jayson Kershaw who has seen his team lose his last 5 starts thanks to a lack of run support. It must also be noted that the thrower was frustrated once again in his last meeting with the Cardinals on July 29, yielding four hits with seven strikeouts in eight innings of a 3-2, 15-inning loss.

Final notes & Key Trends: Cardinals are 9-4 L/13 meetings here in LA and are 35-16 in the L/51 overall confrontations. Wainwrights team when he starts against a winning team in the 2nd half of the season, dating back to last year is a
perfect 8-0.

Play on the St. Louis Cardinals - 4*

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
4 units Tampa Bay -240 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.7)

I keep saying this over like a broken record, but the oddsmakers can't make the Tampa lines at home chalky enough to take away the value. The Rays have been sizzling at home compiling an 83-34 mark as a home favorite and now also 69-24 vs a righthand pitcher at home. Rays also 47-13 at home with a posted total of 9-10.5 and with tonight's starter Jeff Niemann on the hill they are 10-1 in that spot. The Birds have been horrible on the road period, but as a dog of +201 or higher they are just 12-55. Looks like a chalky line, but taking a look at the numbers here says otherwise as a lot of four to one or better longterm situations in favor of the Rays, who I will back in this one.


Game: Seattle at Detroit
4 units Detroit -290 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.4)

All you had to see was what Justin Verlander did in his last game, especially late, to know this guy is zoned in and very strong right now. Verlander threw 123 pitches vs the Red Sox in his last outing and his final two pitches were fastballs, both clocked at 100 MPH! While he has struggled at times on the road this season, such has not been the case at home where he is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA with opposing batters hitting .205 against him. The Mariners Ian Snell is lost on the mound right now as his teams are just 4-14 on the season with him starting. That includes a horrible 1-9 on the road. It will take a minor miracle for the Tigers to lose this one and will play Detroit here.


Game: Boston at Toronto
3 units Boston +1.5 runs -160 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.9)

The Boston Red Sox have probably done a better job than any other team in baseball against Roy Halladay. What makes it an even more difficult position for the Blue Jays is they are a slumping team and even with Halladay on the mound they are just 3-7 in his last ten starts. The Red Sox have a winning record vs Halladay over the last three years and, for his career, Halladay has a 4.34 ERA against the Red Sox, a full run above his career average. Clay Buchholz has had success against the Blue Jays as he limited them to one run in 5.2 innings this year and in his last outing worked seven innings allowing one run. Red Sox really stepping up against top pitchers as they have turned in an 18-6 mark in their last 24 vs a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Going with the Red Sox here on the runline.


Game: Minnesota at Texas
3 units Minnesota +120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

The Twins could have really caved in last night trailing 5-1 heading into the sixth, but ended up winning easily 9-6 and have the momentum coming in here after a 16 hit explosion. The Twins began the season at 0-4 with Scott Baker on the hill, but since then they have been an impressive 12-7 and also 5-3 in his last eight road starts. The Rangers have not been successful in Kevin Millwood's last six starts where they are just 2-4 and things don't get much easier here. Millwood has had fits with the Twins as he has taken the goose-egg at 0-6 for his career with a 6.00 ERA allowing 82 hits in just 57 innings and walking 21 as well, so just about two base runners per inning. Texas bullpen overworked last night puts the Twins in a good spot here and I'll go with them.


Game: Minnesota at Texas
3 units Minnesota +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)

Looking at the track record the Twins have had against Kevin Millwood makes this one hard to pass up. Millwood has pitched the Rangers to just two wins in his last six starts, but now he faces the team that has had more success against him than any other. The Twins own Millwood and that is attested to by his career 0-6 mark, backed by an inflated ERA of six. He has allowed the Twins 82 hits in just 57 innings and adding in the walks makes for two base runners an inning. Getting +1.5 runs to go along with these numbers puts me on the runline with the Twins.


Game: New York Yankees at Oakland
5 units Oakland +120 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 6)

The Yankees will be in their most vulnerable spot as they call on newly acquired Chad Gaudin to face the A's tonight. Oakland is a team built around on base percentage and patient hitters, and since Gaudin walked 100 batters in an Oakland uniform in '07 in just 199 innings you know they will be taking a lot of pitches. Gaudin has already walked 57 in just 108 innings this season and his ERA was over five in the NL. The A's lost Brett Anderson's first six starts, but are now 7-2 in his last nine as he begins to figure things out and certainly is capable of a gem, more so than Gaudin. A's are playing well in the role of an underdog, winning six of their last seven and I'll go with them in this one.


Game: New York Yankees at Oakland
3 units Oakland +1.5 runs -140 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

The Yankees are light years beyond what the A's are this season interms of talent, but much closer when you consider the Yankees 34-27 road mark vs the A's 28-31 home mark. Put the A's pitcher with the best stuff on the hill vs the Yankees worst option that has not fared well and you have a situation that pushes the pendulum of value on the A's here and I will grab them on the runline in this one as well.

[Mr. IWS]

BOB BALFE

Angels/Indians Over 10.5
Weaver/Sowers

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan

100? PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (WITH Lee for sure going for Philly) - Point blank, I’m not ignoring the Cliff Lee revival in the City of Brotherly Love. He is in after eight strong innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field last Thursday, when Lee allowed six hits, one run and three walks while striking out eight. Since moving over to the National League from the Indians, the Cy Young southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in three starts for the Phillies.

He’s dominated foes, allowing 16 hits, three runs and six walks in 24 innings. He’s fanned 24 batters and opponents are hitting a bleak .193 against him. Here’s the irony, last season CC Sabathia was traded to Milwaukee, he went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his first three starts. He allowed 17 hits, six runs, five earned runs, one home run and six walks in 24 innings. He struck out 24 and opponents hit .205 against him. It must be a trade-thing, cause it’s working, and the Phils are this year’s beneficiary. Lay the run line, as Arizona gets nowhere and the Phils roll.

100? TAMPA BAY RAYS RUN LINE (WITH Niemann for sure going for Tampa) - I’ll bank on the defending American League champions tonight, as Jeff Niemann will be looking to turn things around as he comes in off another four-run outing as he was tagged for four runs in 5-1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Angels last Wednesday. He started the month of August surrendering just one run over eight innings to the Royals at the start of August, but the right-handed rookie has now given up four runs in back-to-back outings, and has a 6.17 ERA in those two starts.

I’ve watched the 26-year-old pitch, and he’s going to dominate the Orioles once again. He’s pretty familiar with the O’s, as this will be Niemann's fifth game – his fourth start - of his career against them -- the team he's faced the most; he's 3-1 with a 5.30 ERA against. Okay, so I don’t necessarily like the ERA, but I think I’ll be okay against Baltimore starter Chris Tillman. Lay the run line tonight for a blowout win.

100? TORONTO BLUE JAYS RUN LINE (WITH Halladay for sure going for Toronto) - Having settled back down since the trading deadline, Roy Halladay appears to be back to his old self again. He’s in off a Halladay-like dominating performance on Friday night, when he held the aforementioned Rays to a meager one earned run over eight innings for his second successive win. It also marked the Major League-leading 21st time in 23 starts this season the former Cy Young winner and 2009 candidate has logged at least seven frames.

Over his past two starts, the 32-year-old veteran is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Though he was 1-4 with a 3.16 ERA in his previous eight trips to the mound, he’s shed those doldrums and will come in with plenty of confidence in facing the Red Sox. In his lone start this season against Boston on July 19, Halladay turned in a complete-game victory.

It might be pricey to lay a run line against this team, but with Clay Buchholz on the hill, the Jays should have no trouble getting some runs in my opinion. They’re in revenge, as his first start in his return to the rotation was here in Rogers Centre, on July 17. He stifled them to one earned run over 5-2/3 innings and scattered just four hits for the win. The tide turns tonight. Lay the run line.

[Mr. IWS]

LT PROFITS

UNDER in all of these games

PHLIA 2 *
TBAY 2 *

TORONTO 5* GOY

[Mr. IWS]

SSG/********

Chicago v. San Diego 10pm
PICK: Cubs RL +100 (8*) Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

TONY BRUNO WINS

40x MINN TWINS

[Mr. IWS]

seabass 100* st louis, 300*angels, 400* cubs, 100* steam tigers run line

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES

Angels ML
Padres +1.5
Yankees ML

[Mr. IWS]

Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #919 L.A. Angels (-120) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
You all should know how I feel about Jeremy Sowers by now. The Angels are just a solid all-around team and they just happen to rock left-handed pitching. They are 35-16 overall against southpaws and are an automatic play against a lefty starter. The Angels are also 21-6 on the road and they are 13-3 in Jared Weaver's last 16 starts. In fact, the Angels are 5-2 in his last seven starts against the Tribe. This play should be rated much, much higher. But I respect how hard the Indians have been playing and I think something is a little off about the line. But not off enough to get me away.

2-Unit Play. Take #929 N.Y. Yankees (-135) over Oakland (10 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Here we are going to back the better team on the short line again. The Yankees are 10-2 in the last 12 games against the A's and they are 37-14 overall. If I see them at less than -160 I'm making a move on them. Why not? They have been wrecking people for the last two months. The Yankees have seen, and beaten, Brett Anderson this year. And after a strong start Anderson has posted a 5.51 ERA in his last five starts. Yankees eat up southpaws and I think they get the job done.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #905 Colorado (-155) over Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Just like the Yankees and Angels, the Rockies have been one of the best bets in sports over the last two months. They are a silly 46-22 in their last 68 games, so why wouldn't we be on them against the worst team in baseball? Rockies are 20-6 against the Nationals and 11-5 in Jason Marquis' last 16 starts.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #928 Texas (-130) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
I like the Rangers to win this series and that would require a strong performance out of Kevin Millwood today. I have held out for the Twins for weeks now, but the fact of the matter is that they suck. They are 5-12 in their last 17 and they have been one of the worst road teams in the league. Scott Baker has had all kinds of trouble this season and he is just 1-8 as an underdog (1-7 as a road dog). Kevin Millwood is 21-8 in his last 29 home starts, and facing a Twins lineup likely sans Justin Morneau I like him to get another 'W'.

1-Unit Play. Take #924 Tampa Bay (-1.5, -120) over Baltimore (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 hosting the O's and they are 24-8 overall. Baltimore just can't beat other A.L. East teams. All Jeff Niemann has done lately is win. He is 12-4 in his last 16 starts and has been one of Tampa's best pitchers this year. The Rays are 37-14 at home and the O's are just 7-21 overall.

1-Unit Play. Take #911 Florida (-110) over Houston (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Florida is staying hot. They are 10-2 in their last 12 games and they have a nice edge in the pitching matchup. This club is 27-9 as a favorite and they are 7-1 in their last eight against the Astros. I don't see them letting up after a nice win last night, and the Astros just continue to struggle against N.L. East teams.

1-Unit Play. Take #909 Atlanta (-175) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Braves pissed away a 4-0 lead last night. I don't get it, but I have no problem going against the Mets again today. The Mets are doing the quintessential "Bet on a team that just lost its best player" maneuver. But I'm going to ignore that and back Jair Jurrjens, who should dominate the Mets lineup tonight. Right now the Mets are basically the Pirates, only worse. Braves gotta get one of these games and I think Chipper Jones will victimize New York again.

Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Minnesota at Texas (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Seattle at Detroit (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.0 St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Francisco at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Arizona at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 L.A. Angels at Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso:

15 Units Rockies RL
10 Units Angels ML

[Mr. IWS]

VR

3* dodgers
2* reds

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

Orioles/Rays under

[Mr. IWS]

Stan sharp

2 dime t.b RL

[Mr. IWS]

tim trushel
under redsox/20*