patrickbrandt1
08-31-2009, 02:23 AM
After this weekends so-so prediction thread (7-4), I lost Maia, Aurelio, Jardine, and Couture, but I believe I had great explanations. So, in an effort to redeem myself, here you go with UFC 103! Heres my 102 predictions link as well: My UFC 102 Picks Column
Lean on me for your betting needs!!!!!! I am here to help and typically bet around a 75 percent clip.
Jason Brillz vs Elliot Marshall
After an upset vs Tim Boetsch at UFC 96, Brillz comes back to fight a decent grappler in TUF vet Elliot Marshall. Look for Marshall to be overmatched with the punishing takedown style that Brillz brings to the table. Brillz is simply too good a wrestler with too much control of Marshall’s posture. I do not see a sub being pulled off.It really is too bad that Brillz is not sold on fighting full time, because the former Nebraska wrestler is already one of the top wrestlers in the division, and he has decent sub defense to boot. He could be a decent threat to a lot of guys, as Boetsch was a former Lock Haven wrestler who had no answer. Brillz really isn’t a great finisher at this level, so look for a unanimous decision.
Vladimir Matsuyshenko vs Igor Pokrajac-
This could be an upset pick, but Matsushenko has been on an impressive role since his first set of UFC fights. In a battle of wrestlers, usually the fight stays standing. I think Matshshenko will upend this trend, and win a boring decision victory. I also think he will be the better wrestler than the Cro Cop fight team alum.
Nik Lentz vs Rafaello Olivera
A tough fight to call, I have to admit I have not seen much of Olivera. While Lentz holds a tough win over Drew Fickett, I have to say that Olivera’s win over Wigman Big Big is much more impressive strictly because that name is simply awesome. All picks aside, I have to watch some tape of both before I revise this prediction, but based on highlight videos alone, I think Lentz takes this with a good bout of top control. He trains on a daily basis with top wrestlers at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, and I think he will control this fight with top control.
Tomasz Drwal vs Drew McFederies-
McFederies is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC, and will stay around strictly because of his boom or bust status. However, he lacks the grappling to ever be competitive as a contender. Drwal is simply too well rounded- being technical in the standup and being a decent grappler (at least compared to McFederies). Drwal can take this to the ground and submit McFederies assuming he doesn’t beat him on the feet. Look for a Drwal submission or TKO.
Pick: Drwal
Paul Daley vs Brian Foster-
Daley is a UK draw with great kickboxing and a great nickname. “Semtex” is the African American version of Paul Taylor in a sense, lacking grappling but very exciting. Overall, Daley is going to overwhelm foster early and often, look for a KO victory for the dynamic standup of Daley, and cross your fingers for a Taylor vs Daley on short notice at UFC 105 in England, as Daley will not accrue much damage.
Pick: Daley
Jim Miller vs Thiago Tavares-
In the battle of Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu studs, Miller vs Tavares is a solid fight. The difference will be Miller’s dynamic top control, that has wilted the likes of Matt Wiman. Tavares for all his talent has had trouble maximizing it, and this will be no different. While I’m not convinced Miller submits him, he is a very solid 155 prospect. Look for Miller to look outstanding in a unanimous decision.
Pick: Miller
Cole Miller vs Efrain Escudaro-
Escudaro, last seasons TUF winner, looked excellent in his takedown game vs Phillpe Nover in the finale. Miller, always tough, has looked very good as of late, beating down Junie Browning and showing submission acumen against BJJ black belt Jorge Gurgel. I think Escudaro will have a tough time in this fight, and it really is a toss up. Should Miller stop the takedown, I think he wins this fight. Escudaro himself has a upper-echelon grappling game though, so I doubt Miller pulls a sub. His length and reach will give Escudaro problems in the standup, and I think you see a decision victory for Miller.
Tyson Griffin vs Hermes Franca
A solid fight, Franca’s Achilles heal has always been his wrestling. It cost him his title defense against Sean Sherk, constantly dominating the standup before wilting under Sherk’s top control. Griffin is quite solid in this department, and quite hard to submit, as Robert Drysdale has said on numerous occasions he rarely is able to tap Griffin. I’m also not convinced Franca will beat the very-sturdy Griffin in the standup. Look for a sterling unanimous decision victory for the Xtreme product.
Pick: Griffin
Josh Koscheck vs Frank Trigg
One of the first signings for the UFC’s senior tour, Trigg is back to fight another AKA standout, Josh Koscheck. I don’t see anyway that Trigg wins this fight, but Koscheck did lose in the standup to Paulo Thiago of all people. Overall, in a battle of two wrestlers, usually the fighter that wins in the standup is crowned. While Koscheck has become too complacent on his overhand right, Trigg will have nothing for him in this area, and Koscheck should look impressive in a resurgent 2nd round TKO.
Pick: Koscheck
Mike Swick vs Martin Kampmann-
In a battle to get slaughtered by perennial champion Georges St. Pierre, “Quick” and “The Hitman” square off. While I would favor St. Pierre should the UFC decide to scrap this fight and make it a tag team match against Swick and Kampmann, I favor Swick in this fight. Both have dropped down from middleweight and have been unbeaten, but I think the quickness that Swick has shown will be the difference. Both are decent in the grappling game, but I think Swick takes the standup. Kampmann is a good striker, but hardly possesses the knockout power that Swick possesses. I also think the takedown defense that Swick possesses will neutralize the ever-improving submission game that Kampmann has. Look for a unanimous decision for the AKA standout.
Pick: Swick
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Junior Dos Santos
Dos Santos has looked scary in his first two fights, landing a murderous set of uppercuts on Stefan Struve and Fabricio Werdum. Filipovic is a mystery, looking excellent against lesser opposition in Mustapha Al-Turk but looking terrible against Alistair Overeem, Cheick Kongo, and Gabrial Gonzaga in recent memories. The problem against Kongo was not the knees to the family jewels, but the fact that he is quite easy to bully for big strong heavyweights with powerful strkes. Overeem, Fedor, and Kongo have all taken care of this. Dos Santos comes straight forward, and I think the power he has will test Cro Cop’s chin. I also think the vaunted left head kick that Filipovic possesses is no longer a secret, and thus he will be prone to bad fights. Look for Dos Santos to finish this fight by bullying Mirko, setting him up as yet another excellent prospect in this division.
PICK: Dos Santos
Rich Franklin vs Vitor Belfort-
Belfort debuts to regain some of his lost UFC glory. The Phenom has had mixed results in the UFC, losing fights to the likes of Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, and Chuck Liddell. At 185 pounds, however, Belfort has looked stunning, beating up Terry Martin and Matt Lindland while take very little amounts of damage. A Vitor Belfort fight is always difficult to predict because of his lapses in psychosis that sometimes diminish his obvious talent. I see Belfort being equal in the grappling, so the standup is where this fight will take place. Franklin has a penchant for taking punishment in the standup because of average defense, and I think Belfort will explode somewhere in this fight, destroying Franklin and setting him up for a fight eventually with Anderson Silva.
Pick: Belfort
As said before, I am willing to help anyone with betting should I be messsaged, as this is a hobby of mine. Thanks. Any feedback would be great! I don't have a proof reader so if you find mistakes, let me know!
__________________
Lean on me for your betting needs!!!!!! I am here to help and typically bet around a 75 percent clip.
Jason Brillz vs Elliot Marshall
After an upset vs Tim Boetsch at UFC 96, Brillz comes back to fight a decent grappler in TUF vet Elliot Marshall. Look for Marshall to be overmatched with the punishing takedown style that Brillz brings to the table. Brillz is simply too good a wrestler with too much control of Marshall’s posture. I do not see a sub being pulled off.It really is too bad that Brillz is not sold on fighting full time, because the former Nebraska wrestler is already one of the top wrestlers in the division, and he has decent sub defense to boot. He could be a decent threat to a lot of guys, as Boetsch was a former Lock Haven wrestler who had no answer. Brillz really isn’t a great finisher at this level, so look for a unanimous decision.
Vladimir Matsuyshenko vs Igor Pokrajac-
This could be an upset pick, but Matsushenko has been on an impressive role since his first set of UFC fights. In a battle of wrestlers, usually the fight stays standing. I think Matshshenko will upend this trend, and win a boring decision victory. I also think he will be the better wrestler than the Cro Cop fight team alum.
Nik Lentz vs Rafaello Olivera
A tough fight to call, I have to admit I have not seen much of Olivera. While Lentz holds a tough win over Drew Fickett, I have to say that Olivera’s win over Wigman Big Big is much more impressive strictly because that name is simply awesome. All picks aside, I have to watch some tape of both before I revise this prediction, but based on highlight videos alone, I think Lentz takes this with a good bout of top control. He trains on a daily basis with top wrestlers at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, and I think he will control this fight with top control.
Tomasz Drwal vs Drew McFederies-
McFederies is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC, and will stay around strictly because of his boom or bust status. However, he lacks the grappling to ever be competitive as a contender. Drwal is simply too well rounded- being technical in the standup and being a decent grappler (at least compared to McFederies). Drwal can take this to the ground and submit McFederies assuming he doesn’t beat him on the feet. Look for a Drwal submission or TKO.
Pick: Drwal
Paul Daley vs Brian Foster-
Daley is a UK draw with great kickboxing and a great nickname. “Semtex” is the African American version of Paul Taylor in a sense, lacking grappling but very exciting. Overall, Daley is going to overwhelm foster early and often, look for a KO victory for the dynamic standup of Daley, and cross your fingers for a Taylor vs Daley on short notice at UFC 105 in England, as Daley will not accrue much damage.
Pick: Daley
Jim Miller vs Thiago Tavares-
In the battle of Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu studs, Miller vs Tavares is a solid fight. The difference will be Miller’s dynamic top control, that has wilted the likes of Matt Wiman. Tavares for all his talent has had trouble maximizing it, and this will be no different. While I’m not convinced Miller submits him, he is a very solid 155 prospect. Look for Miller to look outstanding in a unanimous decision.
Pick: Miller
Cole Miller vs Efrain Escudaro-
Escudaro, last seasons TUF winner, looked excellent in his takedown game vs Phillpe Nover in the finale. Miller, always tough, has looked very good as of late, beating down Junie Browning and showing submission acumen against BJJ black belt Jorge Gurgel. I think Escudaro will have a tough time in this fight, and it really is a toss up. Should Miller stop the takedown, I think he wins this fight. Escudaro himself has a upper-echelon grappling game though, so I doubt Miller pulls a sub. His length and reach will give Escudaro problems in the standup, and I think you see a decision victory for Miller.
Tyson Griffin vs Hermes Franca
A solid fight, Franca’s Achilles heal has always been his wrestling. It cost him his title defense against Sean Sherk, constantly dominating the standup before wilting under Sherk’s top control. Griffin is quite solid in this department, and quite hard to submit, as Robert Drysdale has said on numerous occasions he rarely is able to tap Griffin. I’m also not convinced Franca will beat the very-sturdy Griffin in the standup. Look for a sterling unanimous decision victory for the Xtreme product.
Pick: Griffin
Josh Koscheck vs Frank Trigg
One of the first signings for the UFC’s senior tour, Trigg is back to fight another AKA standout, Josh Koscheck. I don’t see anyway that Trigg wins this fight, but Koscheck did lose in the standup to Paulo Thiago of all people. Overall, in a battle of two wrestlers, usually the fighter that wins in the standup is crowned. While Koscheck has become too complacent on his overhand right, Trigg will have nothing for him in this area, and Koscheck should look impressive in a resurgent 2nd round TKO.
Pick: Koscheck
Mike Swick vs Martin Kampmann-
In a battle to get slaughtered by perennial champion Georges St. Pierre, “Quick” and “The Hitman” square off. While I would favor St. Pierre should the UFC decide to scrap this fight and make it a tag team match against Swick and Kampmann, I favor Swick in this fight. Both have dropped down from middleweight and have been unbeaten, but I think the quickness that Swick has shown will be the difference. Both are decent in the grappling game, but I think Swick takes the standup. Kampmann is a good striker, but hardly possesses the knockout power that Swick possesses. I also think the takedown defense that Swick possesses will neutralize the ever-improving submission game that Kampmann has. Look for a unanimous decision for the AKA standout.
Pick: Swick
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Junior Dos Santos
Dos Santos has looked scary in his first two fights, landing a murderous set of uppercuts on Stefan Struve and Fabricio Werdum. Filipovic is a mystery, looking excellent against lesser opposition in Mustapha Al-Turk but looking terrible against Alistair Overeem, Cheick Kongo, and Gabrial Gonzaga in recent memories. The problem against Kongo was not the knees to the family jewels, but the fact that he is quite easy to bully for big strong heavyweights with powerful strkes. Overeem, Fedor, and Kongo have all taken care of this. Dos Santos comes straight forward, and I think the power he has will test Cro Cop’s chin. I also think the vaunted left head kick that Filipovic possesses is no longer a secret, and thus he will be prone to bad fights. Look for Dos Santos to finish this fight by bullying Mirko, setting him up as yet another excellent prospect in this division.
PICK: Dos Santos
Rich Franklin vs Vitor Belfort-
Belfort debuts to regain some of his lost UFC glory. The Phenom has had mixed results in the UFC, losing fights to the likes of Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, and Chuck Liddell. At 185 pounds, however, Belfort has looked stunning, beating up Terry Martin and Matt Lindland while take very little amounts of damage. A Vitor Belfort fight is always difficult to predict because of his lapses in psychosis that sometimes diminish his obvious talent. I see Belfort being equal in the grappling, so the standup is where this fight will take place. Franklin has a penchant for taking punishment in the standup because of average defense, and I think Belfort will explode somewhere in this fight, destroying Franklin and setting him up for a fight eventually with Anderson Silva.
Pick: Belfort
As said before, I am willing to help anyone with betting should I be messsaged, as this is a hobby of mine. Thanks. Any feedback would be great! I don't have a proof reader so if you find mistakes, let me know!
__________________