UFC 104: Machida vs Rua - Oct 24th Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/185.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[Mr. IWS]

Still cant believe how big a dog Rua is. Have to put 10 or 20 on him just for the hell of it.

I hope they show that Pat Berry/Hardonk fight on the main card. This is gonna be a real nice standup fight.

[SPX]

I got Shogun for .25u @ +400 a little while back.

I don't expect him to win the fight and honestly I hope he doesn't. Machida's the man. If he loses my winning's will only be a consolation prize.

I also have 2u on Stevenson and am thinking about dropping someone on AJ and Schafer.

[Mr. IWS]

Undercard fights are on spike. That is sweet. I hope they put the Berry/Hardonk fight on.

[Luke]

With all the football I havent even had a chance to look at this card.Hell I missed boxing last Saturday and had to watch the replay

[Luke]

You can get shogun at +400 at matchbook at the moment

[Mr. IWS]

I got a free play, im putting 20 bucks on him for the hell of it.

[Luke]

I got a free play, im putting 20 bucks on him for the hell of it.


Is that the only thing you are going to bet on this card?

[Mr. IWS]

Yeah. If I had to put my cash on it, I wouldnt. I think this is the longest I have gone between betting on MMA.

Last one was Penn over Florian for me.

[SPX]

Here's what I got:

.25u on Shogun @ +400
.25u on Eric Schafer @ +350
3u on Rumble @ -300
2u on Stevenson @ -200
.43u on Neer @ +105

[Mr. IWS]

FUCK! I forgot the prelims were on spike.

[Luke]

FUCK! I forgot the prelims were on spike.

::lmao::


LOL me too but I forget everything

[Luke]

Dogs mostly covering so far this event

[SPX]

FUCK! I forgot the prelims were on spike.

I think they only showed two fights:

Hardonk VS Barry
Schafer VS Bader

[Mr. IWS]

I caught the Bader fight, but I really wanted to see Hardonk and Barry.

SPX, looks like you came up last night with the two big plays. Nice job.

[zY|]

I went 1-3 and lost my ass on Okami.

Lost on okami, hardonk, and the LHW champion.

Won a unit in Rumble by tko. The line was fantastic, -105. Shouldve hit it harder but what are you gonna do?

Overall down 2.775 units for the night, and I don't even want to talk about the complete assraping I took betting on the SEC yesterday.

[SPX]

I caught the Bader fight, but I really wanted to see Hardonk and Barry.

SPX, looks like you came up last night with the two big plays. Nice job.

Yeah, up 1.08u for the event. It's definitely nice to have a positive result after losing all my picks for MFC and then getting crushed for DREAM 11.

[Mr. IWS]

In re: to Cain.

I like the kid, and he will have a bright future, but I think if he fights Brock, he will get raped.

He couldnt hold rothwell down, and with all the shots he put on Rothwell, he couldnt KO him. I think he will get schooled by Lesnar.

[zY|]

On the contrary, I wouldn't be surprised if he just kicks Lesnar's ass. The intensity and pace that Cain sets is insane for a heavyweight. And he's almost certainly a better wrestler, who has no problem dumping huge guys on their ass.

[Mr. IWS]

And he's almost certainly a better wrestler,

If he couldnt keep Rothwell on the ground, how do you think he would out wrestle Lesnar?

[SPX]

I think Lesnar would fuck Cain up, just like I think he's going to fuck Carwin up. As a matter of fact, I don't see anyone in the UFC beating Lesnar any time soon, and . . . I think Lesnar even has a shot to beat Fedor.

There . . . I said it.

[Mr. IWS]

Another thing about Cain that gets overlooked, his punching power.

He mauled Kongo for 3 rounds, landed a ton of punches and couldnt finish him.

He was hitting Rothwells face, which was wide open, and Rothwell was in the midst of getting up while the fight was stopped.

I look at Mir's face after a round and a half with Lesnar, and he was mangled up.

[Mr. IWS]

compustrike stats from the Rua/Machida fight.

http://compustrike.com/stats_files/ufc_ ... da-Rua.HTM (http://compustrike.com/stats_files/ufc_104/MacHida-Rua.HTM)

Overall, Rua landed more strikes. They were even with punches, but Rua had more than a 2-1 ratio in kicks.


Round by round

Round 1
Rua landed more and had a better percentage

Round 2
Rua landed more and had a better percentage

Round 3
Rua landed more and had a better percentage

Round 4
Rua landed more and had a better percentage

Round 5
Rua landed more and had a better percentage


Just more stats to back of the obvious,that Rua won that fight.

[Mr. IWS]

The more I think about it, I would like to see Cain vs. Big Nog, winner gets the winner of the Lesnar/Carwin fight.

[SPX]

Just more stats to back of the obvious,that Rua won that fight.

I've heard some people say that the stats aren't accurate, i.e. Rua was given 15 leg kicks in one round when he only landed 10, etc. That sort of thing.

Here's Cecil Peoples' reasoning for why he scored the fight the way he did. One thing we do have to keep in mind is that we are not trained observers. There have been plenty of fights where in my opinion on looked like fighter A clearly won and then the Compustrike numbers come out and I was way off at least in terms of strikes landed. These guys are out there throwing techniques at lightning speed. Did that one land? Was it blocked? DID YOU EVEN SEE IT? It's very hard to properly judge these things if they're close.

With that said, yeah, I think Rua won the fight but upon closer inspection it's clear that Lyoto did a lot more than I was giving him credit for at the time.




The main-event of UFC 104 saw Lyoto Machida defend his Light heavyweight title by winning a unanimous decision over Shogun Rua but not without controversy as many spectators felt the scorecards reflected poorly upon the fight. Long time MMA judge and referee, Cecil Peoples provided us with his reasoning behind his issued score of 48-47 in favour of the champion, Lyoto Machida.

"First of all what you need to understand is that from where the judges are sitting, we get to see things that the fans at home may miss. Mauricio Rua was being aggressive but it wasn't effective aggressiveness which is what we as the judges look for when scoring a fight. The way I saw it, Lyoto was landing the more cleaner and damaging strikes throughout the fight - if you take a look at the judging criteria clean strikes are valued more-so than the quantity of strikes landed. Although Rua threw a lot of low kicks they were not as damaging as Lyotos diverse attack in the earlier rounds which is why I scored the first three rounds for Machida. You have to keep in mind we always the favour the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don't do that."

"When both fighters are engaged in a striking match what I always look for is the fighter who is being judicious, picking his spots, being accurate and landing the cleaner strikes which ultimately is what Lyoto did more effectively than Rua. Lyoto made Shogun come after him, he determined where the fight took place which in my opinion constitutes as effective Octagon control. I recognize the fact that Rua did have a few takedown attempts during the course of the fight however Lyoto defended them all successfully which counts as effective grappling in his favour, where as ununsuccessful takedown attempts are not scored at all. Therefore going by that criteria, I believe Lyoto won the fight clearly. I'm just glad the other judges on the panel saw it the same way and I'm sure the fans who understand the technicalities of the sport agree with the decision too."


Source: http://cagereport.net/Cecil-Peoples-I-b ... early.html (http://cagereport.net/Cecil-Peoples-I-believe-Lyoto-won-the-fight-clearly.html)

[Mr. IWS]

This is beating a dead horse at this point, but I thought this was pretty cool.

I wanna check these out for future fights.

[Luke]

You have to keep in mind we always the favour the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don't do that."

Ah ok

then why dont we just take out legs kicks and we can call the sport boxing.


This was a horrible decision plain and simple

[zY|]

[quote="zY|":1z8skrhd] And he's almost certainly a better wrestler,

If he couldnt keep Rothwell on the ground, how do you think he would out wrestle Lesnar?[/quote:1z8skrhd]

Don't be fooled. He could've kept Rothwell down all day if he wanted to. He just knew he could slam him back down again at will, and was busy trying to punch his face in, giving Ben room to scramble up. Agreed that Cain lacks real KO power, but I don't really think that's relevant given the beating he can put on dudes. Although it's fairly ridiculous that people take credit away from Cain for not finishing Kongo instead of giving credit TO Kongo for NOT being finished. You certainly can't call Kongo a frontrunner or a quitter after that performance.

Honestly I'm not saying Cain would or wouldn't beat Lesnar, I'm saying it wouldn't surprise me. It's just the sheer intensity that he fights with is extremely impressive. It's like GSP, I don't see many HWs being able to handle Cain's riddum.

[Mr. IWS]

riddum.

::lmao::