10-5-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT is a beast on MNF!

2009 Football Upset Club

Monday, October 05, 2009
4*Packers (+4½) over Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns:

PACKERS Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Time: 10/5/2009 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Green Bay Packers Reason: I'm taking the points with GREEN BAY. (10* Main Event) I'm taking the points with GREEN BAY. This line has climbed from its opener and I feel that's provided us with plenty of value with the visiting Packers. As you're probably well aware, this game has some major implications in the suddenly competitive NFC North division. Then, of course, there's the Favre vs. Rodgers and Favre vs. GB story-lines... The betting public has quickly fallen back in love with Favre, forgetting about last year's late-season meltdown with the Jets. Rodgers isn't getting as much attention, but he's still highly capable - arguably even more so. Let's not forget that he threw for more than 4000 yards with 28 touchdowns last season. Both defenses are very capable. The Vikes have slightly better overall stats. However, they've allowed two of three opponents to reach 20 points. The Packers, on the other hand, have held two of three opponents to 17 points or less. Both teams are 2-1 ATS. The Packers are 1-0 ATS on the road though while the Vikes are 0-1 ATS at home. The Packers, 6-1 ATS their last seven 'dome games,' are 10-3 ATS in division games the past two seasons. During the same stretch, the vikes are just 4-8-1 ATS in their divisional games. Looking at last year's meetings and we find that both were close. The Packers won by five points when the teams played at Lambeau - Rodgers' debut as a starter. The game here at Minnesota was even closer, as it was decided by just a single point. Looking back a bit further and we find that the Packers have won five of the last six meetings and that they've gone 4-0 ATS the last four of those. In fact, the Vikings have only beaten the Packers three times since 2005 and all three victories came by a field goal or less. I expect tonight's important game to also come down to the wire and feel that having more than a field goal to work with is generous. *10 main event

UNDER packers/vikes Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Time: 10/5/2009 8:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on GB and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. With the Favre vs. Rodgers QB matchup, most are expecting a shootout and that's provided us with a very high total. I believe that its too high. Yes, both teams have seen the 'over' go 2-1 to start the season. However, a closer look reveals that all four of those 'overs' came when these teams played outside the NFC North. Both teams have seen the 'under' go 1-0 when matched up against divisional foes. Many were expecting the Week 1 Packers/Bears (Rodgers vs. Plummer) clash to be high-scoring, as that game had an over/under line which was very similar to this evening's game. I played the 'under' in that one though and the teams combined for only 36 points. The Vikings saw their lone divisional game (Week 2 at Detroit) finish with 40 points. Yes, both quarterbacks are more than capable and its also true that both of them probably are a little extra motivated for tonight's big head to head matchup. That said, I also have a lot of respect for both these defenses and also believe that both those units will be fired up for tonight's big game. Additionally, even though Favre will get all the attention, the Vikes will still be running the ball with regularity. The Vikings are fourth in the league in total defense, allowing just 259.7 yards per game. They're allowing 19 points per game. The Packers are allowing 21 per game. However, they've held two of their three opponents to 17 points or less. The Vikes have seen the UNDER go 19-10-1 the last 30 times that they played a home game with a total ranging from 45.5 to 49 points. I expect those numbers to improve as the shootout many are expecting never materializes and the final combined score stays below the generous number. *9 NFC TOW

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
Minn

[Mr. IWS]

Lang

Monday's Selection ...

10 DIMER - GREEN BAY PACKERS - I will gladly take this inflated number today.

The Vikings are undefeated but they haven't looked all that great doing it.

Yes they pulled away from Cleveland in the 2nd half to win by double digits, and did the same at Detroit. Are those two quality teams? I think not.

They came home and shouldn't have beaten the Niners, but a Farve miracle saved them.

Now they face a division opponent who is familiar with them who has covered 5 straight in the series and 6 of the last 7. More than a field goal is way to much in my opinion.

It's all about hype, and Favre wanting to get his revenge, but I see it as much more than that.

I see a Green Bay team that matches up very well with this Vikings squad and will stand toe to toe with them tonight.

One thing about this version of the Packers is the fact you can't get away from their impressive underdog numbers.

Over their last 17 situation where you have thrown them points, they are an impressive 13-4 ATS including 4-1 last year.

Now the last time something like this happened it was Joe Montana facing Steve Young when Joe went to the Chiefs and the Niners had to travel to Kansas City on a Sunday afternoon.

Chiefs killed them.

However the difference in this matchup is it's not AFC versus NFC, it two teams that know each other very well. In fact, they know each other about as good as two teams can.

When you face teams in your division twice a year every year where there hasn't been a big turnover in coaching staffs, their are no secrets.

It's about "We know what you are going to to, you know what we are going to do".

Tonight it's about who does it better and I think both teams will have success.

In what I feel will be one of the most watched game in NFL history, especially after what Favre pulled off last week, I will take the dog and look for a field goal game.

Green Bay plus the ponts is the way to go.

FREE SELECTION - GREEN BAY-MINNESOTA OVER