10-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Chase Black]

Ben Burns

Thursday Roast Nebraska

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT
2009 Football Upset Club

Thursday, October 08, 2009
4*Missouri (+3½) over Nebraska

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Thursday's Selection ...
20 DIMER - MISSOURI TIGERS - This has trap number written all over it.

Nebraska opened a 1-point favorite and Joe Public has steadily moved this number up to 3 1/2 with a few 4's popping up as of this morning.



Now from what I gather, everyone is jumping on Nebraska mainly because of their effort at Virginia Tech, a game they should have won outright except when you settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, you are asking to lose.



Maybe it's just me but I personally think Virginia Tech is overrated and I won't base anything on that game in handicapping this game here.



This is conference play. This is "I know you and you know me" and it is a matter of who is going to do it better.



Both teams off a bye week so both will be ready to roll.



Missouri isn't just going to lay down and hand Nebraska this win. They will fight for their life against a team they have owned the last 2 years.



At home in 2007 Missouri as a 6-point favorite wins 41-6 and last year at Nebraska as a 10-point road favorite wins 52-17.



Now this year the Cornhuskers are all of a sudden a 3 1/2 to 4 point road favorite? As I said at the top, this has trap written all over it.



It wouldn't surpise me in the least to see this game as a field goal game and that put's the value right smack dab on the underdog.



It's easy to pad your defensive stats against the likes of 3 Sun Belt teams, and Virginia Tech. Now they step up and face the best offense Nebraska has seen all year and you are asking them to lay points here? I just don't see it.



I love value on Thursday night and the underdog is barking again tonight. Who is listening to that bark? I AM.



Grab the home dog with Missouri.



FREE SELECTION - BOSTON RED SOX

[Mr. IWS]

Drbob:

#21 Nebraska (-3.5) 28 #24 MISSOURI 26
Over/Under Total: 52.5
06:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-08
Missouri certainly entered this season underrated and the Tigers are a good team, but they may be overrated a bit right now. Missouri's offense has averaged a healthy 6.6 yards per play in their 4 games when starting quarterback Blaine Gabbert has been in the game, but they've faced 4 sub-par defensive teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team, so the Tigers are actually only 0.8 yppl better than average offensively and are up against a very good Nebraska defense that has yielded just 4.4 yppl (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and held Virginia Tech's good offense to just 4.3 yppl on the road a few of weeks ago.

Missouri has an excellent defense that has given up just 4.8 yppl (excluding the final two series against Furman when the backups played) against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. Nebraska is 1.4 yppl better than average offensively when their starters are in (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl), but the Huskers were just 0.6 yppl better than average in their only game against a good defensive team - averaging 5.2 yppl against a Virginia Tech defense that would allow 4.6 yppl at home to an average attack. So, it's not a reach to think that Missouri's defense can neutralize Nebraska's offense.

My math model actually favors Nebraska to cover in this game and gives the Huskers a profitable 54% chance of covering at -3 1/2 points, but Missouri applies to a very strong 62-13 ATS home underdog momentum situation while Nebraska applies to a negative 23-63-3 ATS situation. The situational analysis favoring Missouri has a 59% chance of working and I'll lean with Missouri plus the points based on the strong technical analysis.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns Write up

NEBRASKA Game: Nebraska vs. Missouri Game Time: 10/8/2009 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Nebraska Reason: I'm laying the points with NEBRASKA. I've had plenty of success with home underdogs on Thursday nights over the years. However, that doesn't mean that I'm not willing to back the occasional road favorite. In this case, I believe that the road team is offering us plenty of value. Naturally, this is a very big game. These teams are bitter rivals and both are very anxious to kick-off conference play with a victory. The Tigers have been tough at home in recent years. However, I feel that the Huskers are a stronger team and that they come in with a little more to prove. I say that as the Huskers have had little success on the road vs. ranked teams and they'd really like to get that monkey off their back. Additionally, the Tigers have blown out them out in back to back meetings and this is their chance to settle the score. Doing so at Faurot Field on National TV would be a statement that "Nebraska's back" and there would be nothing sweeter to the Huskers. The Tigers do come in with the better record. They're 4-0 while the Huskers are 3-1. However, the Huskers' lone loss came at Virginia Tech (Hokies were ranked #13 at the time) and that loss came by only one point, (16-15) with the Hokies scoring with 21 seconds left to earn the win. While the Tigers have beaten a pair of capable teams in Illinois and Nevada, both those programs have struggled so far. Their other two wins came against the likes of Furman and Bowling Green. The combined record of those four opponents is just 6-12, with Furman (a Football Championship Subdivision team) accounting for three of those victories - those coming against its Southern Conference foes. In other words, Nebraska and Missouri could easily have the same record, if they'd played the same schedule. The loss to V-Tech notwithstanding, the Huskers have been dominating their opponents. In fact, they've outscored Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Lafayette by a combined margin of 142-12. The offense ranks 19th in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 440 yards per game and ninth with 39.3 points per game. The defense has been even better. Indeed, the Huskers are first in FBS in scoring defense, allowing just seven points per game, and their 28 points allowed are their fewest yielded through four games since 1990. Last year was Bo Pellini's first year as coach of Nebraska and last year's game vs. Missouri was his very first within the conference. Not only did the Huskers lose but they were blown out by a score of 52-17. That was their most lopsided defeat at Memorial Stadium since 1955. Its safe to say that Pellini and co. haven't forgotten. While it hasn't been noticable yet, this year's Tigers had the fewest number of returning starters in the Big 12 and were tied (with OSU) for the fewest number of returning lettermen. Look for those personnel losses to finally catch up with them this evening, as the revenge-minded Huskers get some payback, covering the small number along the way. *8 Roast

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

25-6 ATS NEBRASKA/MIZZOU ESPN TV WINNER

Nebraska at Missouri
Missouri +4

Analysis: At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers plus the points over Nebraska. I did a double-take when I saw this pointspread, as I certainly didn't expect the Tigers to be installed as a 3.5-point home underdog. Clearly, Nebraska is being strongly rated for its #1-ranked defense (7 ppg), and its ninth-ranked offense (39.3 ppg). Still, the 'Huskers have played three creampuffs (Florida Atlantic, Arkansas St, and La-Lafayette) to go along with its game at then-No. 13 Virginia Tech. But the Huskers lost that game to the Hokies, 16-15, and QB Zac Lee's numbers were less-than-mediocre vs. Virginia Tech (11-for-30 passing; 136 yards; 2 Interceptions). Last year, Missouri drilled Nebraska 52-17, and the Tigers have opened up this 2009 season with a 4-0 record, including a blowout 37-9 win over Illinois. Granted, Mizzou had Heisman Trophy contender Chase Daniel at quarterback last season, but sophomore Blaine Gabbert (who once had committed to Nebraska, before going to Missouri) has taken over the reins this season, with nary a drop-off. Gabbert is leading an offense that's 15th in points scored (36.8 ppg) and 16th in yards (453 ypg). Overall this season, he's passed for over 1100 yards, 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Tigers also have played great at home at Faurot Field, winning 23 of their last 27 games, including three straight over Nebraska. And although not as good as Nebraska's defense, this 2009 Tigers squad is playing much better 'D' under first-year coordinator Dave Steckel. Unlike Matt Eberflus, who co-ordinated the defense last season, Steckel prefers to keep his blitz packages in check, and instead play a lot of zone. The result is that Missouri is giving up a lot of "dink-and-dunk" yards, but not big plays (only three plays have gone for 20+ yards vs. Missouri this season). The 'Huskers have also only won once in their previous 15 road games vs. ranked opponents, and they're a dreadful 6-25 ATS away from home off a double-digit home win. Finally, Missouri falls into 35-12, 37-13, and 111-47 ATS systems of mine that each play on certain rested home dogs off a straight-up win. Take the points with the home dog.