10-9-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[mike d]

Will have a GOLD SHEET SUPER PLAY later tonight for Saturday College

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
NEVADA (-10.5) 38 Louisiana Tech 24
Over/Under Total: 58.0
06:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Oct-09

Nevada is now 17-3 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault after destroying UNLV 63-28 last week while racking up 775 total yards at 10.8 yards per play. That was Nevada's first win of the season, but the Wolf Pack are better than a 1-3 team and have been quite unlucky in being -8 in fumbles lost margin in just 4 games. After starting the season with a blowout loss at Notre Dame, the Wolf Pack lost to Colorado State because of a -5 in turnover margin (they out-gained CSU), lost by 10 at home to a good Missouri team, and then beat up on UNLV last week. Overall, Nevada has averaged 6.9 yppl and allowed 6.3 yppl this season against a better than average schedule of teams and they should continue their climb back towards .500 with a win tonight over a worse than average Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), average defensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl), and worse than average in special teams. Tech's defense did a good job last week at home against a good Hawaii pass attack, but they gave up over 300 rushing yards to both Auburn and Navy, the two good rushing teams that they've faced and Nevada should run all over them tonight given that the Wolf Pack have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play or more in all 4 of their games and are averaging 7.6 yprp for the season. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is also more than capable of having success throwing the ball and my math model calls for an 11 point victory. There is extra home field advantage here in Reno, so I'll call for a 14 point margin.

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Friday, October 09, 2009
3*Nevada (-10½) over Louisiana Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Sprietzer

I'm laying the points with Nevada on Friday night. The Wolf Pack are not built to battle toe-to-toe with top BCS squads. Instead, HC Chris Ault chooses to build his teams to whack the WAC. The "Pistol" offense may not fool teams like Notre Dame and Missouri, but works wonders against the level of competition they'll face tonight. And for that matter, they did run the ball well two weeks ago against Missouri. The Wolf Pack did gain 218-yards at 4.84 per carry against the Tigers in a 10-point home loss. The main problem for Nevada has been turnovers. They self-destructed earlier in the season, but the offense put it all together last week. The "light went on" and the Pack crushed in-state rival UNLV, 63-28, scoring 35-unanswered points in the final quarter. Lousiana Tech slammed Hawaii last week in the second half of their game. They led just 10-6 at the half, but slowly wore down Hawaii's horrible tackling defense after intermission. It didn't hurt that UH starting QB Greg Alexander was knocked from the game in the third quarter. If Tech can't run, they're basically done. They averaged just 97.3 rypg through their first three contests, with the only win coming against Nicholls State. The passing game fared well against the out-manned Colonels, but not in their other three contests, where Ross ******* has passed for an average of just 120.3 yards per game at just 4.30 per attempt. The La Tech QB had just one passing TD with a couple of INTs and he was sacked eight times in those three outings. After facing multiple-set offenses in Notre Dame, Missouri, and even UNLV, this is defintiely a step-down in competition for the Wolf Pack defense! Offensively, Nevada went nuts last week gaining 773-yards on 10.45-yards per play against the Rebels. They piled up all of those yards and all of those points despite losing four fumbles. I really believe Nevada caught fire last weekend and will continue to be red-hot over the next 3-4 weeks, including this game. Nevada is 23-13 ATS as a favorite under Ault, scoring 38 ppg. They're an even better 16-3, 84% winners when favored at home, with an average final score of 42-22! The Pack whipped La Tech 49-10 as a seven-point home fave two seasons ago. I expect another big win and cover in Reno on Friday. I'm laying the points with Nevada. Thanks! GL! Scott.