10-15-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Thursday, October 15, 2009
3*Cincinnati (-2½) over So Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

Opinion (1*): LA Dodgers
Opinion (1*): LA/Phi Under

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

20 Dime
South Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Burns- USF

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns

big east goy s fla

roast lad

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's NHL THURS NIGHT **POWER PLAY!** (4-0, 100% L12 Days)
I'm laying the price with the Canadiens on Thursday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' NHL #1 Game Of The Week! *6-1 L7, 24-7 L31
I'm laying the price with MONTREAL

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

#21 S. FLORIDA 26 #8 Cincinnati (-2.0) 25
Over/Under Total: 48.5
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-15

Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the nation so far this season, as the Bearcats have been very good on both sides of the ball while out-gaining their 4 Division 1A opponents 7.5 yards per play to 4.4 yppl. Those stats were posted against a decent schedule of teams that would combine to both average 5.3 yppl and allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. As good as the Bearcats have been this game figures to be a battle against a good South Florida team with a better than average offense and a very good defense. South Florida is not as good offensively as their 6.9 yppl average would indicate, as the 5 teams that they've faced would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team. Dynamic freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels has been fantastic in 2 starts since taking over for injured senior veteran Matt Grothe, as Daniels has led the offense to 6.4 yppl in games against Florida State and Syracuse, who would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati's defense appears to have an advantage, but running quarterbacks like Daniels, who has 321 yards on 44 rushing plays, can create problems for even the best defensive teams.

If South Florida is to win this game it will be All-American DE George Selvie and the defense that will have to win the battle against Tony Pike and the potent Cincinnati attack. South Florida hasn't faced an offense as good as Cincy's, but the Bulls did limit a very good Florida State attack to just 4.5 yppl in a 17-7 road win a couple of weeks ago and the Bulls are in a very good situation tonight.

Cincinnati applies to a negative 34-85-2 ATS road letdown situation and 5-0 teams are just 94-151-2 ATS in their 6th game as a favorite of 2 points or more (1-2 last week with Auburn, Iowa, and Alabama). USF, meanwhile, applies to an 80-31-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations give South Florida a solid 55% chance of covering at a fair line and my math model says that the line is close to fair (it favors Cincy by 3 points). I will resist making USF a Strong Opinion here because Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly has a tendency to win competitive games. In fact, Kelly is 12-1 ATS in his coaching career in regular season games when the line is less than 7 points (dog or favorite), including wins this season at Rutgers and Oregon State. I would still rather have the home dog here.

[Mr. IWS]

LANG

20 DIME - SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

Joe Tresey. Bet you can't guess who he is can you? Well, get a load of this.

He was fired by Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly last year for supposedly interviewing for the Miami-Florida defensive coordinator job but there are other rumors flying around as well.

He put the Bearcats defense together, and after getting fired he was immediately hired by South Florida to run their defense.

So for 2 years he schemed, game planned and went against this Bearcats offense and more importantly, knows Tony Pike better than he knows himself.

You can't discount knowledge in a game like this. You just can't, and it's knowledge I am banking on with this small home dog tonight.

South Florida opened as a 1-point favorite and the public has hammered Cincinnati to a current 2 1/2 point favorite as of this morning.

Does the public have a fascination with the Bearcats? I believe they do and still fresh in their minds is the win at Rutgers to start the year and at Oregon State as well.

This game comes down to the offense of Cincinnati versus the defense of South Florida, and Tresey must feel like he is a mad scientist getting to attack this Bearcats offense with this defense of South Florida, a defense that is loaded.

I feel they have one of the best defensive lines in the country and at home, defense rises up and gets the win. I am rolling with the home dog and going against the public line move and staying with South Florida tonight.

25 DIME - LOS ANGELES DODGERS SERIES WINNER –
Pitching wins championships and in this series match up, the Dodgers have the better pitching and a better manager.

Don't get me wrong, I like Charlie Manuel but let's be honest here, he is not Joe Torre and the Dodgers have answered the bell all year long, with Manny, without Manny, and with Manny again.

Over a 7 game series normally the deepest pitching staffs get the win and the Dodgers have been pretty stable in that regard all year long.

I give the Phillies credit, they did what they had to do against a Rockies team that was filled with holes all over the place. Not so with this Dodgers team.

Los Angeles is a complete team doing everything right and they will get their revenge from last year from this Philly crew. Believe me they will.

It's just to hard to repeat right now in baseball and the Phillies will fall short in this series because of their starting pitching and bullpen.

Dodgers win this series in 6 games.

5 DIME - LOS ANGELES DODGERS - Just don't like what I am seeing in Cole Hamels right now.

Down the stretch he has been terrible. Just terrible and all you need to do is look at his last 3 regular season starts to prove how terrible.

In 16 2/3 innings, he was touched for 13 earned runs on 20 hits and five walks. Just not confidence building number now are they?

Now you really can't fault him for his poor playoff start against the Rockies which saw him give up 5 earned in 5 innings. His wife was in labor so I will give him a pass on that.

But the last 3 regular season starts show me this late in the year he just doesn't seem like the Cole Hamels of last year.

Rookie Clayton Kershaw is a different now than the Phillies have ever seen, and I really believe the Phillies will be quite suprised at the growth of this young kid tonight.

He was masterful in going toe to toe with Wainwright in his first playoff start, and I don't think this stage is too big for him as well.

Over his last 5 home starts he has been as good as it gets. Take a look at the following numbers.

How about 6 2/3 innings of 2 run ball versus the Cards? How about 6 shutout innings of 3 hit ball against the Rockies? How about 6 innings of 2 run ball against the Padres with one of those runs being unearned?

How about 2 earned in 3 2/3 innings against those same Cards preceded by 7 shutout innings of the Braves allowng just 2 hits.

This kid is on his game while Hamels is not and that is why you have Kershaw the favorite in the game. The Dodgers are supposed to win and they will.

This game may be tied late and turned over to the bullpens and if that is the case, advantage Dodgers. In a very big way.

Dodgers are the Game One play.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Kershaw over Hamels)

FREE SELECTIONCincinnati-South Florida UNDER

[Chaseace]

Who's big AL like?

[Mr. IWS]

Who's big AL like?

already posted