10-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3* San Diego

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Chargers

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Monday, October 19, 2009
4*Chargers (-3½) over Broncos

[Jason_W]

What will Lang's play be today? I'm sure it will be a 50 dimer bc he is down 55 from yesterday. He went 4-1 but lost his 100 dime on the G-men. It looks like the best bet for him is his free pick. I think he has won his last 4 or 5 in a row.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | MLB Money Line Mon, 10/19/09 - 8:05 PM

triple-dime bet 961 ANA (-130) BetUS vs 962 PHI
Analysis:
After two games facing the elements and the cold weather of the new Yankee Stadium, the Angels will return to Anaheim and get a near-perfect day for baseball on Monday afternoon (as Torii Hunter said, "Now I can work on my tan again"). The Angels blew numerous chances to win in Game 2 (which would have evened the series), losing 4-3 in 13 innings which took 310 minutes. The Angels batted just .154 in the two games in The Bronx (12 hits over 22 innings!) with only four extra-base hits (all doubles), giving them a pathetic slugging percentage of .205. All of a sudden A-Rod has turned into "Mr October" for the Yanks and while their pitching rotation isn't deep, Sabathia, Burnett and Pettite have combined for a 1.62 ERA. Andy Pettite gets his second straight Game 3 start, after beating the Twins 4-1 in the ALDS (6.1 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER / 7-1 ratio). The win allowed him to tie John Smoltz for most wins in the postseason all-time (15). The Angels face a daunting task against the Yanks (ML-best 103-59 in the regular season and 5-0 so far in the postseason) but the Angels owned MLB's second-best record this regular season (97-65), as well as its best moneyline mark at plus-$2,176 (just about $1,000 better than New York's plus-$1,178 mark). The Angels didn't rely on "the long ball" during the regular season but led all of MLB in team batting average (.285) and scored more runs (883) than any team other than the Yankees. They excelled at creating runs through multiple-hit rallies and heads-up base-running and had no trouble in three games against Pettite this year, getting 21 hits and scoring 14 ERs off him in 16.1 innings of work over three sta~rts (7.71 ERA). Meanwhile, the Angels counter with Jered Weaver, who had his best season since his 2006 rookie season when he went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA. Weaver was 16-8 in 2009, posting a 3.63 ERA. He made 33 regular season starts and then beat the Red Sox 4-1 in Game 2 of the ALDS here in Anaheim (7.1 IP / 2 hits / 1 ER). He was terrific at home all year, going 10-3 with a 2.72 ERA (allowed just 97 hits in 122.1 innings), as the Angels won 13 of his 18 starts (includes the postseason win). The Angels are 51-32 at home this year while averaging 5.46 RPG (includes ALDS) and are 38-17 vs lefties in 2009, after beating Lester 5-0 in Game 1 of the ALDS. Pettite's in their 'crosshairs' next in this "must-win" situation. Championship Series GOY 25* LA Angels.

[Mr. IWS]

brandon lang


Monday's Selections ...

NOTE
No excuses here.

Waited 2 years for what I really felt was great value with the Giants and I was wrong.

Picked the wrong day to go with the wrong team at the wrong time. Take my medicine like a man and move on.

To sit here today and go 3-1 on Sunday with a free pick on the Arizona Cardinals, and yet still have a losing day is flat out frustration.

Watching the Ravens come back. Watching New England win 59-0. Watching Arizona smash Seattle. Then the Falcons on Sunday night.

And having to see that Giants score flash on the screen every 5 minutes was a hard pill to swallow.

I did what I said I would do on Saturday with the 50 dime winner on Arkansas but one of the best road teams in NFL history got buried.

The crazy thing is I still feel like I am turning the corner with my opinion and a 7-1 Saturday and Sunday with paid and comp plays should tell you how close I am.

Just have to keep working harder to produce top play winners. Tonight I feel the Chargers are that top play.

30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Don't get beat by the hook ever.) - The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers.

Their offensive line needed a week off, and coming out of their bye week and playing at home on Monday night against a team they will be supremely confident against is a perfect situation for a big win.

I give Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan all the credit in the world for this turn around but let's not put the cart before the horse here just yet.

Denver's 5 wins have come at Cincinnati in week one courtesy of the tip ball miracle, week two at home over Cleveland, week 3 at Oakland and the last 2 weeks at home over Dallas and New England.

Yes, they are 5-0 SU and ATS on the year, but I question just how good this team really is based on their level of competition and where they have played them.

Beating the Bengals and the Raiders on the road is not enough for me to anoint you the second coming just yet. I will make the Broncos prove it to me with a win over their current nemesis.

San Diego has beaten Denver 3 in a row at home and beaten them big to the tune of 48-20 in 2006, 23-3 in 2007, and 52-21 in 2008.

Yes, I understand it's a new regime with McDaniels and Nolan, but I'm just not sold on the fact Denver can turn this horrific defense from last year around so quickly and tonight will be Denver's biggest test yet.

I feel they will fail and fail miserably against this Charger bunch who need a big win, are fresh off their bye week and will attack this Denver defense all night long.

San Diego has 2 losses this year at home to the Ravens, and at Pittsburgh against the Steelers and even though they lost, they put up 26 and 28 points while doing so.

At the end of the day this game tonight is going to come down to who makes more plays, Kyle Orton or Philip Rivers and for my dollar, it's Philip Rivers.

San Diego is the play tonight.

10 DIME - LA ANGELS - Must win. Simple as that.

And I look for the Angels to play today as if their lifes depend on it.

Jered Weaver was as dominant as any pitcher was at home this year, and his 10-2 home mark and 1-0 in this years playoffs is good enough for me.

Andy Pettitte isn't facing the Twins here folks, he is facing an Angels team that can light him up in a hurry and I believe they will.

In his last 2 appearances in Los Angeles he has given up 9 earned in losing both and I feel the Angels will get to him early tonight.

The Yankees have lost 3 of his last 5 starts overall, so it's not like they have been performing really well behind him and let's remember this isn't a place the Yankees have played particular well either.

At the end of the day I am more impressed with Weaver's 7 1/3 innings at home against the Red Sox in the ALDS allowing 2 hits and 1 run than I am anything Pettitte did against the Twins.

Angels get on the board in this series today.

LA ANGELS (Weaver over Pettitte)

10 DIMER - LA DODGERS - Just as Kuroda of the Dodgers was the sacrificial lamb last night for Los Angeles in their pitching rotation, such is the case with Joe Blanton tonight.

Blanton's last 2 starts of the regular season - starts he knew would determine whether or not he got a post season start - saw him implod against both the Marlins and the Brewers, lasting less than 6 innings in both being tagged for 5 runs in each.

As for Randy Wolf, he has been a savior for the Dodgers down the stretch allowing more than 2 runs in just 2 of his last 10 starts.

Now he is back at Citizen Bank Park, a place he will be very comfortable having spent 9 seasons with the Phillies.

He started the first game ever played in the stadium with the Phillies on April 12, 2004.

Overall he is 9-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 27 starts including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 17 strikeouts in his only two starts there as a visitor.

Much like the Angels who are in a must win, so are the Dodgers here and with Wolf on the mound, I like my chances with the small dog Dodgers.

Los Angeles is the play.

LA DODGERS (Wolf over Blanton)

FREE SELECTION - DENVER-SAN DIEGO OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns 9* Main Event

Play Title *5-1 L6 NFL, 21-10 L31 Totals* Burns' MAIN EVENT!!
Play Selected Total: 44/-106
I'm playing on San Diego and Denver to finish UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a pair of "shootouts" against each other last season. Those games both produced a ton of points and those results remain in many people's memories. However, this is an entirely different Denver team. The Broncos aren't scoring as many points - they've only gone over 23 once in five games and they have yet to score more than 27. However, they're also allowing less than they did last year. A lot less. In fact, they're allowing a mere 8.6 points per game (best in the NFL) and only five points per game (and just 222 total yards) in their two road games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in their five games. Yes, the Chargers are explosive on offense. However, that's been the case for awhile now and yet the UNDER remains a very healthy 12-7-1 their last 20 home games. That includes a perfect 4-0 record when playing a home game with an over/under line ranging from 42.5 to 45. Their most recent game here finished with a final score of 23-13. It should also be noted that the UNDER is 12-7 the last 19 times that the Chargers were coming off a bye, including 2-0 the last couple of seasons. All things considered, I feel that tonight's total is generous. 9* Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob:

3 Star Selection
Denver (+3.5) 23 SAN DIEGO 17
19-Oct-09 05:35 PM Pacific Time
Denver has upset Dallas and New England in consecutive weeks to run their record to a perfect 5-0 and there are still enough non-believers that the Broncos are an underdog against an inferior Chargers team that the public thinks is better than they actually are (they're only 11-11 straight up and 9-13 ATS under coach Norv Turner). The Chargers have the reputation of being a very good offensive team, but the poor play of the offensive line (opening holes for just 2.7 ypr) has hurt that attack and San Diego is just 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Denver's defense played their worst game of the season last week, which says a lot given that they only allowed 5.1 yppl and 17 points to the Patriots. For the season the Broncos' quick and aggressive defense has yielded just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit. That includes holding a very good Dallas offense to just 4.4 yppl two weeks ago. The Broncos have a pretty significant 0.6 yppl advantage over the Chargers' one-dimensional offense and even the part of San Diego's offense that is good (the pass attack is 0.9 yards per pass play better than average) is not as good as Denver's pass defense (1.1 yppp better than average).

Denver's offense is just average at moving the ball (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, not including the fluke 87 yard tipped pass that beat Cincinnati in week 1), but Kyle Orton has done a great job of taking care of the football, as his only interception was on a hail mary pass at the end of the half last week. Denver's offense is actually 0.2 yppl worse than average without RB Correll Buckhalter, who is doubtful to play this week and also missed last week. Rookie Knowshon Moreno is a decent back (4.2 ypr), but Buckhalter has averaged 7.2 ypr on his 37 rushes this season. Even without Buckhalter the Broncos' attack is still better than a San Diego defense that has allowed 5.7 yppl this season to teams that would average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. That defense even made the Raiders' offense look good (366 yards at 5.7 yppl) and should allow Denver to grind out enough points to win this game.

The Broncos' only flaw is their horrible special teams (and San Diego has good special teams), but my math model still favors Denver by 4 points in this game and teams playing well usually continue to play well under the lights of Monday Night Football. In fact, teams that have won and covered consecutive games are 44-13-2 ATS on Monday night since 1995 when facing a team that is not also off consecutive straight up and spread wins. Denver also applies to a very good 96-39-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I'll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars as a dog of less than 3 points.