10-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

20 DIME - UTEP MINERS - Dangerous home dog tonight.

UTEP has perhaps one of the more impressive wins of the year in college football and the general sports fan probably knows nothing about it.

Playing at home, which is where they are tonight, they shredded a Houston team 58-41 as a 14 1/2 point home underdog.

A Houston team that was coming off a huge win at Oklahoma State out of the Big 12.

Now I also understand this UTEP team lost at home to Kansas, and went on the road and lost to Memphis but is Tulsa really that good to be laying more than a touchdown here?

I look at Tulsa on the road at Rice, a game they won 27-10 against a Rice team that gave up 63 at home to Navy and just had a 49-spot put on them by East Carolina.

It was an inspired effort by Tulsa at home last Wednesday against Boise State but if weren't for Boise head coach Chris Petersen kicking a field goal on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line instead of punching it in with 3 minutes to go 3rd quarter, they don't cover that game.

UTEP can play folks, and like I said, you don't start hanging a 58-spot on Houston at home unless you have some talent to get it done in this spot here.

I will gladly grab the touchdown and a hook with UTEP and just like Tulsa last week, look for this home dog to hunt and figure out a way to stay within the number.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | CFB Side Wed, 10/21/09 - 8:00 PM

triple-dime bet 302 UTEP 8.0 (-110) Bodog vs 301 Tulsa
Analysis: I'm taking the points with UTEP. The Miners came through for me in a big way a few weeks ago. Listed as double-digit underdogs, they blew out Houston by a score of 58-41. That victory showed what this team is capable of, when "clicking on all cylinders." However, the Miners had a letdown in their next game (I didn't play them in that one) suffering a disappointing 35-20 loss at Memphis. That result has helped to provide us with a very generous line to work with this week. Note that further value has been provided by the fact that the line has climbed from its opener. While I have a lot of respect for Tulsa, I expect the Miners to bounce back here and for them to look a lot more like the team which defeated Houston than the one which lost at Memphis.

Note that the Houston victory was here at home while the Memphis loss was on the road. Speaking of the Memphis loss, it should ensure that the UTEP players are focused on practicing and improving and keep them from becoming over-confident. (Off the big win over Houston, if they'd also beaten Memphis, they might have started to pat themselves on the back a little.)

The Miners have the schedule in their favor here. Tulsa is coming off a hard-fought loss on National TV (vs. Boise State) last Wednesday. Everyone saw Tu‡lsa hold its own and get the cover, further helping us in terms of line value. UTEP, on the other hand, is coming off a bye, having last played on Oct. 10. That gives them plenty of time to prepare.

The Miners should also have a motivational edge. In addition to playing a nationally televised game in front of their home fans, they were destroyed at Tulsa last season. In fact, "destroyed" may not even be a strong enough word. Indeed, the Golden Hurricane scored 77 points (77-35) and racked up nearly 800 (791) total yards of offense. With 55 returning lettermen (most in CUSA) and 15 returning starters, it's safe to say that the Miners haven't forgotten that game and that they've had this year's matchup circled ever since.

The home team has dominated this series recently, having won five straight. I'll grab the points but I believe that the Miners are more than capable of keeping that streak alive with an outright victory. 10* Top Wed. Report

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Wednesday, October 21, 2009
3*TexasEl Paso (+8) over Tulsa
8:00 PM -- Sun Bowl

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

Strong Opinion UNDER (59 1/2)
UTEP quarterback Trevor Vittatoe is starting to show the impressive form that he played with his first two years as a starter, as the Miners have averaged 8.3 yards per pass play their last two games (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback). Vittatoe started the season playing horribly and is still averaging just 5.6 yppp for the season (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp). Vittatoe will have to be at his best tonight to stay close to a solid Tulsa team that has been 0.4 yards per play better than average in 5 games against Division 1A opponents (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). UTEP is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively but they're improving and should do a decent job moving the ball in this game.

The Miners' defense has been a problem, as that unit has allowed 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but Tulsa isn't as explosive offensively as they've been in recent years. In fact, Tulsa is just average offensively with 5.4 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A foes that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. My math model comes up with a fair line of Tulsa by 9 1/2 points but the Hurricanes apply to a very negative 78-187-2 ATS letdown situation that has a 55% chance of covering at a fair line and UTEP has an overall 53.6% chance of getting the money at +8 1/2 points.

The value on this game appears to be on the Under, as Tulsa is not the explosive offensive team that the public perceives them to be, as the Hurricanes are actually better defensively than they are on offense. In fact, Tulsa's 5 games against Division 1A opponents have resulted in an average of just 47 points, which is lower than the national average of 49.2 points per game and 4.2 points lower than the 51.2 points that is the average total points of their opponents this season. UTEP's average total points is 59.3 points, but the Miners' opponents' average total points is 54.3 points, so their games have only been 5 points higher scoring than what an average team would yield against the same schedule. That compensated points model projects just 50 total points in this game (Tulsa -4.2, UTEP +5.0, national average 49.2 = 50.0) and a more accurate model using projected stats comes up with 50.5 total points in this game. The only teams that Tulsa's good defense has allowed more than 13 points to are Oklahoma and Boise State and UTEP's sub-par attack obviously isn't in that company. UTEP, meanwhile, has scored more than 20 points only against bad defensive teams New Mexico State and Houston. I just don't see UTEP getting much more than 21 points in this game, which would mean that Tulsa's mediocre attack would have to score close to 40 points for this game to go Over. The 59 1/2 point listed total is more about reputation than reality. Based on the historical performance of my model, a 9 point difference in a total from my prediction and the actual line is a 56% play. However, if UTEP quarterback Vittatoe's last two games are an indication that he's back to being his old self then the predicted total would be higher. In fact, if Vittatoe were just as good as he was last season (0.7 yards per pass play better than average rather than 1.0 yppp worse than average) then I would get a predicted total of 54 1/2 points, which is still considerably lower than the 59 1/2 point line. I'll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 58 points or higher.