10-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Rotation #325 South Florida (+7) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars down to +4.
Rotation #318 Purdue (-10) 2-Stars at -10 or less, Strong Opinion up to -11.
Rotation #321 Indiana (+6) 2-Stars at +3 1/2 or more.
Rotation #348 Alabama (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -17 or less, 3-Stars at -14.
Rotation #393 Auburn (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars down to +5.

Strong Opinions
Strong Opinion - Rotation #311 Maryland (+5) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #340 Ohio (-9 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #358 Missouri (+13) Strong Opinion at +11 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +14.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #384 Michigan State (pick) Strong Opinion at -1 or pick, 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #398 USC (-20 1/2) Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #332 Nebraska (-17 1/2) Strong Opinion at -18 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -17.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns 10*
Play Title ***THE BIG ONE*** Burns' BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!
Play Selected Point Spread: -20.5/-110
I'm laying the points with USC. I had a big play (2008 Sept. GOM) on Oregon State when the Beavers upset the Trojans last season. I'll admit that I didn't call for the outright upset. However, I did feel the number was much too high, for a game at Corvallis. Not only is this season's rematch being played in Southern California, but we've actually got a lower number to work with. With the Trojans coming in with "payback" on their minds, I feel that lower number provides us excellent value on the favorite. USC doesn't lose too many games - the Beavers were the only ones to beat them last year. This season's loss at Washington nothwithstanding, the Trojans don't lose many conference road games either. When they do, they almost always avenge those losses when they host the team the following season. Prior to last year's loss at Oregon State, the Trojans last Pac-10 road loss was at Oregon in 2007. Last year, the Trojans hosted the Ducks and won 44-10 as 16 point favorites! In 2006, they lost at UCLA and at Oregon State. In 2007, when hosting those teams, they won by a combined score of 48-10. That included a 24-3 win and cover over the Beavers, as 15 point favorites. Including that victory, the Trojans are a perfect 21-0 the last 21 times that they hosted the Beavers. The last three of those victories all came by a minimum of three touchdowns, each also resulting in a pointspread win. Including the 24-3 win here in 2007, the Trojans beat the Beavers by a score of 52-28 here in 2005 and 22-0 here in 2003. While the Trojans haven't been blowing their opponents out quite as much as they have in past years, their 30-3 victory at California (vs. a really good Bears team) proved that they're still fully capable of crushing teams, when properly motivated and when everything is clicking. Despite playing a relatively difficult schedule, the defense ranks in the top 5 in the country and allows a mere 2.1 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards overall. Meanwhile, the offense put up 500 yards and 34 points last week with QB Barkley, who was out in USC's lone loss, threw for 380 yards. Pete Carroll had this to say of his young quarterback: "I think you see Matt Barkley is really something. I love him, the way he plays, battles, competes, the plays he's capable of making. There's no limit." I expect the Trojans defense to do a MUCH better job stopping the run and also for Barkley to build off last week's big game. I also expect Carroll to "keep the pedal to the metal" the whole way, leading to a convincing win and cover. *10 Blowout GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
PICK: Stanford Your pick will be graded at: -6.5 WSEX EXPERT: Larry Ness TITLE: Larry Ness' 10* LEGEND Play (12-4 s/'05) REASON FOR PICK: ASU and Stanford square off on the West Coast Saturday night in the PAC 10. Both are coming off games which ended in "wild finishes," ASU getting a 'miracle' win and Stanford suffering a heartbreaking loss. The Huskies and Sun Devils were tied at 17-all in Tempe last Saturday and seemingly headed for OT. However, Washington used poor clock management in the final minute or so and wound up having to punt the ball back to ASU with 22 seconds remaining. ASU senior QB Danny Sullivan, who has faced calls from critics to be replaced by highly-touted freshman Brock Osweiler, threw a 50-yard TD pass to Chris McGaha with five seconds to play, giving ASU a stunning 24-17 victory. It marked the longest completion of the embattled QB's career and was the only catch of the night for McGaha, who had missed practice all week with illness but somehow got behind the ENTIRE Washington secondary and was WIDE OPEN! As for Stanford, the Cardinal would blow a 15-point lead to Arizona, including a 38-29 lead in the 4th quarter. The Wildcats closed within 38-36 with 10 minutes to go on a 43-yard TD run and then stopped Stanford on downs at their own eight-yard line. A 37-yard pass got them near mid-field and on a 3rd and 17 play, Arizona broke a 57-yard TD run. With the Wildcats up 43-38, Stanford again reached the Arizona red zone (as far as the 12) but again came up empty. So what happens here? ASU has dominated the last three years of this series , outscoring the Cardinal 120-23 in three wins but a closer look at the recent history shows the home team going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in this series. Sullivan is NOT a good QB (54.5% with a 5-5 ratio) and the ASU running game has no 'star' while averaging 141.8 YPG. The defense is excellent (247.8 YPG / 16.0 PPG allowed) but will be severely tested here on "The Farm." Stanford is led by an outstanding 6' 4" freshman QB, Andrew Luck (57.7% / 227 YPG / 9-3 ratio) and senior RB Toby Gerhart (869 YR / 5.2 YPC / 12 TDs) leads the way for a running game which averages 201.1 YPG (5.2 YPC) with 15 TDs. The Stanford defense is middle-of-the-pack but the ASU offense doesn't own the 'tools' to expose those weaknesses. Stanford is 3-0 SU and ATs at home this year (outscoring opponents on average, 33.3-15.7 PPG) and is 7-1 SU at home since the beginning of last year, losing only USC. In its two Pac 10 home games of 2009, the Cardinal have dominated the line of scrimmage in beating both Washington and UCLA, running for an average of 247.5 YPG (5.3 YPC) while holding their two conference foes to just 97.5 YPG (3.5 YPC). Note that ASU is just 9-19-2 ATS (32.1 percent!) as an away dog this decade. I used a 10* on Stanford back on Sep 26 and the Cardinal CRUSHED Washington, 34-14. Same score here! LEGEND Play on Stanford (10*).

[Mr. IWS]

THE WAYNE ROOT COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR

==== byu =====

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

50 Dime - Duke Blue Devils
15 Dime - Kansas Jayhawks
15 Dime - Washington Huskies

Saturday's Selections ...

Note:

Time to build off Arkansas last Saturday.

As solid a top play in college football as I have had in the last few years. A 24 1/2 point dog almost wins the game outright. By banging home this 2nd straight 50 dime winner today I will have pushed 50 dime football releases here in 2009 to 5-1. I'm talking 5 out of 6 with 50 dime top play winners this year. If can hit 5 out of every 6 top play releases with 50 dimers, I would take that for the rest of my handicapping career. Today is the day I get to push that record to 5-1 and I really feel, just as I did with Florida over Oklahoma, Arizona over Steelers, Saints over Jets and Arkansas over Florida, this game does the same thing today. WIN. Today is the day things continue turn for me. To continue something truly special in college football and keep this current rally going.

Now sit back and enjoy the ride because trust me my friends, it's going to be a wild ride.



50 DIME - DUKE BLUE DEVILS - I know it's hard for people to accept Duke as nothing more than a basketball school but trust me folks, it's becoming a football school right before your very eyes. And the reason why is David Cutcliffe. If you don't know who he is then allow me to introduce him to you. He was Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator at Tennessee and he was Eli's head coach at Ole Miss. The man knows how to coach offense. The Duke passing attack is the 8th best passing attack in the country and coming off a bye week facing a Maryland defense ranked 67th defending the air game, well let's just say Cutcliffe will be flat out dialed in on how to attack this young secondary of Maryland having 2 weeks to prepare. I had this team when they went into NC State as a 16 point underdog and not only won the game outright but they won it outright by 3 touchdowns. Duke has the better offense, the better defense, and without question the better QB in Thaddeus Lewis, and the better coach and not a single ounce of doubt in my mind they win this game by 14 points or more. Maryland can't get out of their way offensively ranked 88th in the country but even more alarming that that, how about 20 turnovers in 7 games this year. They can't hold on to the football. When you start turning the ball over 5 times at home to Rutgers, 4 times to Middle Tennessee State and Virginia, well let's just say it's time to call it a year. Another problem facing this young Maryland team today is this is only their 3rd road game of the year having lost the first two by an average margin of 25 points. This game today is a game about 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Duke is on the rise while Maryland is on the fall and they will be waving bye to each other as they pass each other on the ladder of success. with Duke being the team on the rise. All about Duke having all the success they want through the air versus a Maryland team that quite frankly can't get out of their own way.



50 dime winner Duke.



15 DIME - KANSAS JAYHAWKS - Motivation. Will Bob Stoopes be able to motivate his team to play this game today off the loss to Texas and BCS dreams gone? My answer is no. Kansas is in a great spot here catching a boat load of points at home against a team deflated and playing with a backup QB. You couldn't ask for a better spot for Kansas to get the Sooners than they get today. The offenses match up very well with each other as the Sooners come in #15 in the country while Kansas comes in #16 so there will be some points scored. However, with losses to BYU and Texas on a neutral field and the loss to Miami/Florida on the road, this Oklahoma team is 0-3 away from Norman this year. Listen, no doubt about it, Kansas got caught looking ahead to this game last week at Colorado and they paid for it dearly but now with that out of the way, this game means everything to them and they have the talent to compete. I just don't believe Oklahoma will be able to run away from Kansas in this game and I will gladly grab a full touchdown with the Jayhawks today.

15 dime dog shocker - KANSAS


15 DIME - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - They were good to me over USC and I will go to the well with them here. I know Oregon has been putting up some great numbers but I truly believe the linemaker has over adjusted the line here based on public perception of this Oregon team. They shouldn't have beaten Utah at home but the QB of the Utah imploded in the 4th quarter and handed them the win. Yes, they hammered a flat CAL team who didn't show up because they were already mentally facing USC at home the next week and last week UCLA turned it over 3 times losing by 14. This Washington team is good folks and they have been competitive in every game this year with exception of their game at Stanford but who could blame them in that one coming off the upset of USC the week before. The bottom line is you are getting great value with the Huskies and it's value I will not pass up and it wouldn't suprise me if they stepped up and delivered the outright win just like they did over USC. In a game I feel will go down to the wire and is without question a single digit game, I will gladly back the juicy home dog to bark loudly today.

15 dime dog shocker - WASHINGTON


FREE SELECTION - MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

[Mr. IWS]

Root:
10 * Michigan State
6* Clemson
4* Viriginia
GOY BYU

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns

10* usc
10* ill
pac 10 best bet wash

mlb annihilator nyy

nhl gow det

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer

blowout goy/ florida

[Mr. IWS]

big al 5-star
kansas state

[Mr. IWS]

Spriezter
5* byu
5* bc/nd OVER
TKO (blowout GOM) USC
TKO Auburn
TKO So. Flr
KO Neb.
KO Tx Tch
KO Cinci

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

5% Stanford

4% Wash
4% N Tex Ov58
4% AForce
4% FAU
4% Oregon St
3% Marshall
3% C Mich
3% Ark
3% Duke
3% Miss

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al Highroller

Nebraska

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Vegas Legend - Auburn
Millionaire - Virginia
Billionaire - Clemson
Personal - Mich St
No Limit GOY - BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-CFB (3-1 or 75% FB '09)-Sat
My 20* Club-80 Play is on Nevada at 4:00 ET. Idaho joined Div I-A back in 1996 but entered this season without a winning record this decade (23-82, .219 since 2000). In comparison, Nevada had gone to four straight bowl games (2005-2008) while posting a 30-21 mark. Head coach Robb Akey was 3-21 in two seasons at Moscow and when his team opened the 2009 season with a 21-6 win at New Mexico St, it ended the school's 14-game road losing streak. Meanwhile, a fifth straight bowl berth was almost considered a shoo-in for Chris Ault's Nevada team, as many were predicting the school's first-ever 10-win season as a FBS member. Heading into Saturday's game in Reno, Idaho comes in 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS overall while sitting in first-place in the WAC at 3-0. Boise St, the No. 4 team in the season's first BCS standings and solidly the WAC's premier team, has played just one league game (1-0). Everything is different In Idaho this year. Last year's team averaged just 19.6 PPG but this year's team is averaging 29.6 PPG. The running game (led by WSU transfer Woolridge who has 531 YR / 5.8 YPC / 12 TDs) ia averaging 161.0 YPG (4.5 YPC), up from 133 YPG in 2008 (3.8 YPC). QB Enderele is also greatly improved, completing 64.4 percent and averaging 247.9 YPG, up from 54.3 percent and 173.1 YPG last season. The defense is hardly of the "shut-down" variety but after allowing 42.8 PPG and almost 475 YPG in 2008, this year's averages of 25.1 PPG and 364.0 YPG seem almost Florida (8.7 PPG) or Alabama-like (226.6 YPG). Nevada opened by losing 35-0 at Notre Dame and then lost 35-20 at Colorado St (oops!). The Wolf Pack lost 31-21 at home to Missouri on September 25 but one could tell, the team was "getting close!" I'll say. Nevada has won three straight (2-0 in the WAC) since the Missouri loss, beating UNLV 63-28, La Tech 37-14 and winning 35-32 at Utah St. The Wolf Pack lead the nation in rushing (292.8 YPG / 6.8 YPC / 15 TDs), after rushing for an almost unheard of average of 405.7 YPG (8.0 YPC) in their three-game winning streak. Idaho ranks No. 14 in rush D ((95.6 YPG / 3.4 YPC) but the Vandals haven't seen anything like what they'll experience at Mackay Stadium on Saturday. Nevada's trio of QB Kaepernick plus RBs Lippincott and Taua is really special. Idaho is 7-0 ATS in 2009 and 10-1 ATS going back to last year's final four games but on second thought, the Vandals may not be surprised by what they see on Saturday. Plus, they may not be able to do anything about it. Nevada has won the last four meetings between these two schools (1-3 ATS) since they renewed the series as WAC foes. The final scores have been 62-14, 45-7, 37-21 and 49-14. I realize Idaho is 4-0 ATS this year as an away underdog but remember the Vandals did lose 42-23 at Washington and entered this year an 11-22-1 ATS run as an away dog. The Vandals have had a near-perfect season so far but reality is about to catch up to them. Nevada (2-0 in the WAC) can take over first-place with a win and could very easily be on an eight-game winning streak when it heads to the "Blue Turf" of Boise on November 27. No one has been a better 'bully' than Chris Ault, as the veteran coach has gone an amazing 17-3, that's 85% ATS as a home favorite since returning to Reno in 2004. With all the fundamental advantages as well, that gives me a 20* Club-80 Play on Nevada.