11-1-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***BUFFALO 23 Houston (-3.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -115 odds or better.

2 Star Selection
**Jacksonville 25 TENNESSEE (-3.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
I'll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17
05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09
I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Denver 21 BALTIMORE (-3.5) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
In other words, Baltimore only dominated mediocre and bad teams at home.

Strong Opinion
Carolina 16 ARIZONA (-10.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 01-Nov-09
I'll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more based on the strong technical analysis.

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns plays


8* Blue Chip - Titans/Jags Under
9* Top NFC Play - Carolina
9* Non Conf TOM - SF/Ind Under
9* Personal Fav - Baltimore
10* Top AFC East Tot - Jets/Phins Under

[Mr. IWS]

wayne root goy
NFL KO GOY:
Eagles +1

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Sunday's Selections ...
30 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. if 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2 1/2) - They should have beaten them on that Monday night.



That's right. First possession of the game Aaron Rodgers fumbles at the Minnesota 25. He throws a terrible pick at the Vikings 20 in the 2nd quarter as well. So as you can see, 6 points or maybe even 10 points off the board right there.



This is as perfect a situation for Green Bay to get a win here as you could ask for.



They catch the Vikings playing their 5th road game of the year and 8th straight game overall. They also catch the Vikings off 2 very emotional games at home to the Ravens and last week at Pittsburgh.



My question is how much can they have left in the tank for this huge game at Lambeau?



Teams who have faced Pittsburgh the week before have gone 1-5 ATS their next game out. Don't try to tell me the Steelers don't take a little bit out of a team because I know they do.



Green Bay is fresh. They came out of their bye and have just manhandled both the Lions and the Browns, and they couldn't be more ready than they are today for this game right here.



They have changed their base defense a bit from the Monday night affair, and the homefield will be just what the doctored ordered for this big win here.



Hats-off to the Vikings. They have gotten off to a great start but they just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. End of story.



I am all over the Packers to win this game by 10 points or more going away today.



30 dime Green Bay Packers



15 DIME, 3-TEAM - 10-POINT TEASER - Just like last week I have 3 favorites that I am taking away 10 points from to protect myself from any backdoor madness. Last week it was Indy 45-9, Patriots 35-7 and the Steelers 27-17.



Today it's the Colts again, Dallas and the Arizona Cardinals.



Indy has won their last 4 games by 21, 17, 22 and 36. I don't care who they are playing, or where they are playing, does not matter. They are killing people and their is no doubt in my mind they are the best team in the NFL.





If Matt Ryan can shred this Niners defense, what do you think Peyton Manning is going to do? Exactly. I am taking Indy from -13 to -3 as I type this, and calling for them to handle their business today.



Dallas is going to destroy this Seattle team today. The Seahawks are 1-10 ATS last 11 coming out of their bye week and you add the fact they are rolling with a 3rd string offensive guard, and a 4th string offensive tackle, it will not bode well facing this Dallas defensive line. Can you say sack party in Big D? I can!



This Cowboy team has their swagger back and I will gladly take them from -9 1/2 to a pickem game as I type this, and call for them to take care of their business as well.



Last but not least, Arizona. Panthers will not be able to run the ball versus the Cardinals. That means big Jake will be airing it out against a Cardinals team that forced him into 6 turnovers in their playoff win. Demons come back to haunt Jake today.



Arizona is in the go zone right now after that win over the Giants on the road, and I have full confidence they will do enough to win this game today. Let's take them from -10 to a pick'em game as I type this, and call for them to take care of their business.



Indianapolis, Dallas, and Arizona ALL teased down!



10 DIME MONEY LINE DOG LOCK - ST. LOUIS RAMS - Who are the Detroit Lions to be favored over anybody in the NFL!?!?



Seriously, bye week or no bye week, they are not winning today.



This Rams team comes off getting beat by the best team in the NFL. I don't care if it was by 20 points, or 50 points, no shame in losing to Peyton Manning and the Colts.



Now they are back on the road where they have been very competitive at Washington and at Jacksonville, a game they really should have beaten the Jags.



The bottom line is the Rams are the better team here and in my mind they should be laying -3 not getting +4. That is why I like them on the money line. I feel the wrong team is favored.



I really like Steve Spagunola. Loved him with the Giants, and I do feel he will do great things with this franchise when all is said and done. He does have some talent to work with starting with Stephen Jackson.



Mathew Stafford is banged up along with Calvin Johnson, and even if both play they won't be 100%.



This is the perfect situation and the planet's are aligned for the Rams to get their first win of the year and I truly feel they will do just that.



I am grabbing the Rams on the money line to upset the Lions today.



FREE SELECTION - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Sunday, November 01, 2009

6*Seahawks (+9½) over Cowboys
1:00 PM

7*Bills (+3½) over Texans
1:00 PM

Paid/Confirmed

ROOT NFL GOY is:
Eagles +1

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Perfect Play Club:
10*
Panthers (+10) over Cardinals
4:15 PM

[Mr. IWS]

scott spreitzer
packers/ div. goy

[Mr. IWS]

PPP
4 dallas
3 denver
3 houston
3 jacksonville
3 jets under
3 dallas over

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 25* AFC Game of the Year (Five in a row?)
My 25* AFC Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Both the Broncos and Ravens are coming off a bye but there is little argument that this game is of much greater importance to the Ravens. The Broncos are 6-0 and three games up in the AFC West over the Chargers while the 3-3 Ravens find themselves 1 1/2 games behind both the 5-2 Bengals and Steelers in the AFC Central. A loss here for Baltimore would put its division hopes in bad shape and less than halfway through a 16-game season, the Ravens would also have to start 'sweating' a wild card spot. The Broncos have to be the NFL's biggest surprise team in 2009. They ended last year by losing a three-game divison lead with three games to go and suffered through a highly contentious off-season. Longtime head coach Mike Shanahan was let go and untested Josh McDaniels was hired. QB Jay Cutler got into a dispute with ownership and management and was eventually traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton (among others), who few considered a "big time" QB. Denver's defense needed a complete overhaul after allowing over 400 points in each of the last two seasons and very few experts expected Denver to be better than the 8-8 mark it posted in 2008. Clearly, the Broncos have exceeded expectations. The defense is allowing 11.0 PPG (down from 25.6 and 28.0 PPG the last two years), the fewest of any team in the NFL. Denver is allowing 262.5 YPG, second-best to the Giants (262.0). The rush D ranks third (79.7 YPG / 3.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and the pass D allows a modest 183.0 YPG with three TDs and six INTs (with 21 sacks, only the Vikings have more, who have played one more game). The running game has been sound with rookie Moreno (381 YR / 3.8 YPC) and Buckhalter (313 YR / 6.7 YPC) both contributing while Orton has been FAR better than expected at QB. He's completing 63.9 percent with nine TDs and just one INT in attempts (100.1 QB rating). Considered no more than a "game-manager," Orton is now 27-12 (.692) as an NFL starter. As good as Denver has been, like the Vikings last week, they are LONG overdue for a loss. The Ravens have struggled at times defensively this year but Baltimore is still a quality team. Flacco has made HUGE strides at QB in 2009. After averaging just 186.0 YPG passing as a rookie, he's averaging 279.0 YPG in '09. His TD-to-INT last year was 14-12 but it's 11-5 after six games in '09, while his QB rating has gone up to 93.8 from 80.3. His receiving corps is much deeper in 2009, with vet Mason (26 catches / 816 in his career, one of 23 all-time with more than 800) joined by Clayton and Washington (20 catches each) as WRs plus TE Heap (24 catches) getting better by the week. Ray Rice has blossomed at RB, gaining 441 YR (6.0 YPC / 3 TDs) and a team-leading 33 catches (he ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage). McGahee (202 YR / 4.5 YPC / 5 TDs) has taken a backseat but he's still a contributor. Baltimore opened 3-0 against a 'soft' schedule and while the Ravens have dropped three in a row but let's look at the losses. They outgained the Pats in New England but got 'homered' in a 27-21 loss by some questionable calls by the officials. The Ravens also outgained the Vikings but lost 33-31 at Minnesota when they lost on a missed 44-yard FG at the end of the game. Baltimore lost at home to the Bengals 17-14, when Carson Palmer threw a 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds left to cap an 80-yard drive. That drive was fueled by Baltimore penalties. An illegal contact penalty against Chris Carr and an unnecessary roughness call against Ray Lewis preceded the topper, a pass interference penalty against Frank Walker on a third-and-16 from the Baltimore 30 (although the infraction was called by the officials against Ed Reed). Carson connected on his game-winner on the next play. The Ravens will not fall to 3-4 here and I'm NOT worrying about the reasonable pointspread. AFC Game of the Year 25* Bal Ravens.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (81% over L11-plus years)-Early
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Jets at 1:00 ET. The Dolphins secured the AFC East title with a 24-17 victory over the Jets in Week 17 of the 2008 season and on MNF in Week 5 of this year, when RB Ronnie Brown took the snap with 10 seconds left and scored on a two-yard keeper with six seconds left for the fifth lead change of the final period in a 31-27 Miami win. It marked Chad Henne's second career start, as he completed 20-of-26 for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins totaled 413 yards in that MNF win, converting nine of 14 third-down chances and controlling the ball for 33 1/2 minutes. Miami had 151 rushing yards in its Week 5 win over the Jets, gaining 110 yards out of the wildcat formation. However, mark me down as one who believes the Dolphins will struggle against all three AFC East opponents the second time around. Jets head coach Rex Ryan was embarrassed by his team's performance that Monday night and I'm betting he'll have his defense much better prepared this time. Henne completed 73.9 percent of his passes in his first two starts (3-0 ratio) but the "third time was NOT the charm" for him last week against the Saints. Yes, the Dolphins jumped out to a 24-3 lead against New Orleans, but the Saints outscored Miami 36-10 in the second half, totaling 302 yards compared to the Dolphins' 159 yards after halftime (outscored the Dolphins 22-0 in the fourth quarter). Brees had his worst day of the season, with three interceptions, a lost fumble and five sacks but he led TD drives of 82, 79 and 60 yards on successive possessions in the second half to put New Orleans ahead to stay. Miami's wildcat netted just 30 yards in 14 plays, while Henne went 18-of-36 with two INTs (both returned for TDs) and a QB rating of 45.0. His second half numbers were 11-of-26 with two INTs (QB rating of 29.2). Will Miami be ready to bounce back right away against the revenge-minded Jets? I think not. The Jets opened 3-0 but then lost three straight as Sanchez completed just 45.0 percent with one TD and eight INTs in the slide. He didn't need to do much last Sunday, as the Jets ran for 316 yards vs the Raiders in a 38-0 win. Jones topped 100 yards (had 121) for the third time in '09 (612 YR / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Shonn Greene replaced the injured Leon Washington by running for 144 yards (7.6 YPC) with two TDs. The Jets now rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (184.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), which helps keep the pressure off Sanchez. Sanchez is expected to get Cotchery back at WR this week and Braylon Edwards can't be as bad as he was in Oakland. The Miami 2ndy is allowing over 50 YPG more than the Jets and it doesn't help that starting CB Will Allen tore his ACL against New Orleans and will miss the rest of the season. The Miami rush D is better than New York's (Miami allows 86.7 YPG and 3.7 YPC / Jets allow 116.1 YPG and 4.2 YPC) but the Jets are one of just 10 NFL teams which are allowing less than 300 YPG (297.6). Miami allows 320 but as always, the most important defensive stat is points allowed and the Jets easily win that 'battle,' allowing 14.9 PPG, to the Dolphins' 25.3! Now let's get to series domination! Entering last season, the Jets had gone 16-2-2 ATS against the Dolphins (that's 89%) the last 10 seasons (1998-2007) but after winning and covering at Miami in Week 1 of 2008, lost that Week 17 game at home and then lost this year in Miami on Week 5. Still, that gives the Jets a 17-4-2 ATS run over the Dolphins that stands at 81% the last 11-plus years! Club-80 Play 20* NY Jets.