11-2-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

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[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
**NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17
05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09

05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09
New Orleans suffered a letdown last week and they still managed to come from behind and cover the spread in Miami. The Saints are now 6-0 ATS and I see no reason why that streak will end at home on Monday Night Football. The Saints' offense is averaging 40 points per game and the only two games in which they did not score 45 points or more were against the Jets and Bills, the two best pass defenses that the Saints have faced. Atlanta does not have a good pass defense (6.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), so I don't see Drew Brees being stopped in this game. The Saints also have a good rushing attack and Atlanta is worse than average defending the run too (4.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average team).

The Falcons have a reputation for having a good offense, but that unit is actually barely better than average with 5.4 yards per play coming against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. New Orleans, meanwhile, has a good defense has allowed 4.9 yppl this season and rates at 0.5 yppl better than average.

My math model favors New Orleans by 13 points and the Saints apply to a very good 67-15-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 14-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 7 points. Atlanta's loss last week may have them fired up to play well tonight (they're 5-1 ATS after a loss), but winning teams that are coming off a loss are just 18-44-1 ATS as Monday night visitors, including 12-39-1 ATS if the home team has a win percentage of .400 or higher. New Orleans, meanwhile, is now a perfect 10-0 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of more than 3 points, so they're not the type of team to let up. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.
I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

For the Lang Lovers:

LANG RESULTS for 11/1/09

30 DIMES - PACKERS - LOSER
15 DIMES - 10-POINT 3-TEAM TEASER - LOSER
10 DIMES - RAMS MONEY LINE - WINNER

20 DIMES - PHILLIES IN SERIES - PENDING

-37 DIMES


LANG 2009: 347-396-12, -1184.5 Dimes




Lang By Month:

January: +61.5 Dimes

February: -170 Dimes

March: +14.5 Dimes

April: -308.5 Dimes

May: -13.5 Dimes

June: -81.25 Dimes

July: +17 Dimes

August: +50 Dimes

September: -312.25 Dimes

October: -405 Dimes

November: -37 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

2009 Football Upset Club

Monday, November 02, 2009
4*Falcons (+12) over Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

30- NO
20- teaser NO & Over
10- NYY

Comp- Grizz



Monday's Selections ...
30 DIME - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - The New Orleans Saints and head coach Sean Payton get to show the world on Monday night they are the greatest show in the NFL this year.



And when they do that tonight against this beaten up Falcons defense, I am not going to be on the wrong side of this blowout.



Forget the line move. It can work it's way up to as much as 13 because it won't matter if the Saints win by 14 or more will it? The Saints have the ability at home tonight to destroy Atlanta by 3 touchdowns. This current edition of Atlanta doesn't have that same capability.



We saw it at New England earlier this year when they lost 26-10, and at Dallas last week 37-21.



This game is about one matchup and one matchup only, the Saints offense against a beaten up Falcons defense.



In their 3 games versus the NFC this year, the Saints beat Detroit 45-27 to open the year, put up 48 at Philadelphia destroying the Eagles 48-22 and destroyed the Giants 48-27 at home 3 weeks ago.



With injuries along their defensive front, the Falcons can't get pressure on the QB as evidenced by last weeks loss to Dallas. When you can't get pressure with your front 4 in the NFL it's common knowledge you have to then blitz. That leaves your secondary in man to man coverage.



Against the same defense Drew Brees will see this week Tony Romo went 21 for 29 for 299 yards. Let us make no mistake about it, Romo ain't no Drew Brees.



Here is the dilemma facing the Falcons tonight. Blitz and Brees will own you. Rush 4 or 5 and play zone behind it, and Brees will pick you apart. Pick your poison and either way, the Saints offense will be to much for this Falcons defense. Simple as that.



As we have seen with the Falcons all year long, they are not able to sustain drives and execute offensively for 60 minutes. They are not going to shut down the Saints tonight. They are going to have to match them score for score and when they don't they will be down 2 scores just like that.



And once you are down 2 scores, you have to abandon your running game and start throwing and that leads to turnovers and that leads to another Saints blowout.



Just ask the Lions, Eagles and Giants how it feels to play catch up versus the Saints. It's no fun. Especially in New Orleans in the dome.



I am laying this big number and forcing Atlanta to do something they weren't able to do against both Dallas and New England and that is stay within 14 points on the road.



20 DIME, 2-TEAM - 6-POINT TEASER - If Atlanta is going to cover this number tonight it's going to be a backdoor situation with the Saints up 14 to 17 points late. So to protect myself with any backdoor madness with a number like this I am going to tease the Saints and the Over.



I like the Saints tonight. I like the OVER tonight. Simple as that.



However, in a crazy Monday night shootout which I believe we will get, Atlanta does have the offensive weapons that if they get down big and the Saints fall asleep a little bit, I can see the Falcons having the ball down 17 with 3 minutes to go trying to backdoor the world.



My case and point is last week versus the Cowboys. Let's say Dallas was laying 11 in that game last week instead of 4. Up 16 with 2:16 to go, the Falcons got the ball back with a perfect chance against the Dallas prevent defense to get a backdoor score.



Granted, Matt Ryan was picked off on the first pass play but as you can see, they did get the ball back down 16 with a chance to work on their 2 minute drill versus the Cowboys prevent defense.



That same situation could prevent itself in this game tonight with the Saints laying this double digit number.



So as protection against the backdoor, I am going to a 2-team teaser to protect the side and total I absolutely love.



SAINTS and OVER in a 6-point tease.



10 DIME - NY YANKEES - This is strictly a hedge play on my 20 dime series play on the Phillies.



Just trying to minimize the damage of the Phillies series play as their bats went queite in the World Series and as we saw last night, Brad Lidge couldn't get it done under the bright lights of this year's World Series.



So in trying to soften the blow of the 20 dime series play on the Phillies, I come with a 10 dime play on the Yankees tonight.



FREE SELECTION - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

[kreekor]

Ben Burns

Monday Night *TOTAL* MAIN EVENT!

ATL/NOS UNDER

[kreekor]

Larry Ness

Weekly Wipeout Winner-NBA
UTAH JAZZ

20* NFC South G.O.M
ATL

25* World Series GOY
PHILLIES