11-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[sobenkoma]

Karl Garrett 20 DIMER - BUFFALO BULLS....10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS 20 DIMER - BUFFALO BULLS

A pair of 3-5 teams go at it, and to me 2 factors favor Buffalo, as # 1 head coach Turner Gill rates the edge over 1st year coach Dave Clawson, and # 2 Buffalo is at home under the primetime lights for this game.

That's really it for me. Small home chalk in a "must-win" situation, and after last week's overtime loss at Western Michigan, I expect the Bulls to be right back in the saddle, and handle their business in this home date.

This is the Falcons 3rd road game in their last 4 weeks, and after winning their previous 2 in conference play, I look for them to come up a little shy tonight.

Stick with Buffalo,

10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS

Indiana hasn't shown much through their first 2 games, losing both by double-digits.

Denver is off to a 3-0 start, covering in 2 of the 3, and the Nuggets have covered 7 of their last 8 on the road dating back to last season.

The Nuggets are also 8-2 against the spread the last 10 times they have faced the Pacers, and with this being the start of a lengthy road swing for Denver, I expect them to beat up on a team they should beat up on.

Lay the road wood with the Nuggs.

[sobenkoma]

Royal Sports

10* Play-Bowling Green Falcons

[Mr. IWS]

Kyle Bales
15* Suns/Heat under 216
10* Bowling Green/Buffalo Under 53.5
10* Denver Nuggets -4.5

Free: 1* Utah +5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan today
He has been losing everything lately...

400? BOWLING GREEN FALCONS - I'm a big fan of Turner Gill. Unfortunately this season, he just didn't have the thoroughbreds he had in 2008, and duplicating last year's magical campaign has been impossible.

Eight games into the season, the Bulls are a disappointing 3-5 and come into this one pretty dinged up to face a Bowling Green team that has won two of three and needs every win possible to have a shot at playing in a Bowl Game.

Remaining on the schedule are the Bulls tonight, Miami-Ohio (1-8), Akron (1-7) and Toledo (4-5). Tonight's game figures to be the toughest, even over Toledo since the Rockets will be visiting Bowling Green.

And the Falcons couldn't ask for a better situation than it's in at Buffalo. They bring in the fourth-ranked passing game, which averages 341.3 yards per game, and take on a team that ranks 101st in the nation with just 1.25 sacks per game and 50th-ranked pass-efficient D.

But here's the real concern: Buffalo's defensive backfield is an area injuries have hurt the team significantly. And the lack of depth in the defensive backfield is going to hurt against Bowling Green’s offense. Junior cornerback Josh Thomas is one of four defensive backs listed as out, doubtful or questionable for this tonight's game.

Senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan and senior wide receiver Freddie Barnes are a deadly combination, and make up for the putrid running game (ranked 120th) the Falcons put on the field. Barnes leads all NCAA with 99 receptions and 1,054 yards, while his nine touchdowns are tied for second in the nation.

And get this, Barnes isn't just any receiver - this kid forgot he ain't in high school any longer - he does it all. He can pass, catch, run ... he does it all. And to get this road win under the belt and move closer to the bowl eligibilty plateau, I'm banking on this kid to be the star for us tonight.

Take the road team tonight, as I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons won this game outright.

NOTE - I noticed the line on this game has dropped off from 3-1/2 to 3, and since I know those are wise moves and not public money, I suggest you try grabbing the 1/2-point and buying the hook back onto the field-goal spread. I spoke a big game up above, and yes I do believe Bowling Green can win this outright; but that's irrelevant. The smart move is to take 3-1/2 with a road dog in conference play

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover
Tuesday's Plays 50- Dime BOWLING GREEN

NOTE - I was hoping the Falcons and Saints would score field goals rather than touchdowns, but that wasn't the case. The combined eight touchdowns took care of my under play saddling me with a five-dime loser.

This was the highest total of the season, but it didn't matter. The Saints offense is clicking on all cylinders. From now on it's either play New Orleans over or don't get involved with the total.

I did win on my complementary play of the Sacramento Kings to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies. This was my fifth straight winning free pick selection, but I was fortunate with Sacramento prevailing in overtime.

I've won on my last four NBA plays. I have a free NBA play again today along with one of my strongest plays of the college season and easily my strongest Tuesday play of the year on the Bowling Green-Buffalo matchup.

50- Dime BOWLING GREEN - Buffalo's dream season of a year ago has become a faded memory. Multiple injuries and Mid-American Conference losses to Temple, Central Michigan and Western Michigan have zapped much of the spirit from the Bulls.

The defending MAC champion Bulls have a losing record, both straight-up and against the spread. They gave up more than 500 yards of total offense in their last game, a 34-31 overtime loss at Western Michigan.

Worse, the Bulls lost two more players. Defensive end Willie Mosely and safety Chris Storr are both out for the season after getting injured in that loss to Western Michigan. The Bulls have a cluster injury problem at several spots, including their secondary. They have only one healthy defensive back among their first and second string units.

Bowling Green is a heavy passing team with a ratio of 408 passes to 165 rushes. Tyler Sheehan is one of the top quarterbacks in the country and he has one of the best targets in Freddie Barnes, who is No. 1 in the nation in receptions (99) and yardage (1,054 yards). He's scored nine touchdowns.

No foe has stopped the Sheehan/Barnes combination yet. Buffalo isn't going to end that streak with its battered secondary.

The Bulls also have injuries in their offensive line and at running back where their two best ball carriers, Ide Nduka and Brandon Thermilus, are each questionable with ankle injuries.

Buffalo has a good passing attack, too. But the Falcons have come on defensively holding Ball State to 17 points and high-scoring Central Michigan to 24 points, nearly a touchdown below its season average.

Bowling Green has covered nine of the past 11 times it has been a road underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the past five times it has been a home favorite. This has been a 'dog series lately with the underdog covering in each of the past four meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

Buffalo-5 Dimer

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Pick: 5 units Utah Jazz +5.5

The Dallas Mavericks won impressively at LA and came back with a win over the Clippers, but they will have an angry Jazz team to deal with here, seeking redemption for a 130-101 loss at Dallas late last season. It was a game Dallas had well in hand but piled it on in the fourth quarter putting up 37 more points, and it won't go forgotten by the Jazz. Utah put a similar hurt on the Mavericks earlier in the season 115-87 but called off the dogs in the fourth where the teams finished even at 21-21, so the Jazz took it personally that the Mavs not only got redemption, but rubbed it in. I expect a full-focused effort here by the Jazz that have covered four straight off a loss going back to last year vs. a Mavs team that is just 8-21 ATS against the Northwest in their last 29. The Jazz get the call.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover

Phoenix at MIAMI

One the heels of an overtime winner on the Kings, we take the Under in this Interconference clash.

One of the hardest lines for the oddsmaker to make is an NBA total where there are contrasting styles. You won't have a bigger example of this than the Suns-Heat matchup.

The Suns are No. 1 offensively averaging 117.3 points. The Heat rank first in defensive field goal percentage at 38.6 percent and are tops in 3-point defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 21.6 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is yielding 87.7 points per game, the fifth-lowest in the NBA.

The situation, spot and handicap favor defense over offense in this matchup.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has always stressed defense since taking over in Miami two years ago. It's not a fluke the Heat are playing so well on defense.

Jermaine O'Neal suffered a broken nose in Miami's last game. He'll probably play but may be limited. That could open up more playing time for reserve big man Joel Anthony. O'Neal is a scorer. Anthony is a shot-blocker ranking sixth in the category despite playing just 18 minutes per game.

The Suns are running again under Alvin Gentry. Steve Nash still is highly effective. However, Amare Stoudamire isn't 100 percent yet and Leandro Barbosa has a sore wrist.

The Suns are 3-0, but their victims have been the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. These teams have a combined record of 2-9 with none expected to make the playoffs. None of the three rank among the top 13 teams in scoring defense either.

So the Suns are stepping up in class for the first time. This is the beginning of a five-game, seven-day road journey for the Suns. They will travel nearly 7,000 miles during this trip.

If the Heat were to get a big lead, Gentry very well could save his team's legs by joining the Heat in slowing the ball down while going more to his bench.

3? UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
7 Unit Play. #701. NBA GOM. Take the Washington Wizards +11.5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Tuesday @ 7pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

3U Thunder +7.5
3U Thunder game under 193.5
4U Suns game under 216.5

[Mr. IWS]

BALFE
Suns/Heat Under 216

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.

Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and nine TD's.

It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.

On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.

The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.

It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.

Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.

As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season! *9* BOWLING GREEN.

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

The Falcons have major revenge from a 40-34 2OT loss last year to Buffalo where they blew a 27-7 4th quarter lead, enabling the Bulls to clinch the MAC East Title. Bowling Green has covered nine of its last 11 road games (8-1 ATS as an underdog) and won 7 of its last 8 November games SU. Buffalo has beaten just two FBS opponents all season and just one since the opening upset of UTEP. In fact, they have not covered as a favorite all season and just allowed 350 yards passing in their last game, a 34-31 loss to Western Michigan. For a bad and banged up Buffalo defense, the news gets worse against the Falcons passing attack of QB Sheehan and WR Barnes, the latter of whom leads the nation in receiving. The offense has thrown for 343+ yards passing in each of its last four games. Bowling Green is our 15* MAC Game of the Week.

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Bowling Green (+3.5) over Buffalo

Bowling Green has covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 road games and they have also won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off a conference loss. Bowling Green has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games in the month of November and they are averaging over 315 passing yards a game this season.

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman

ANAHEIM DUCKS -110

Anaheim is 5-2 SU and ATS at home vs Pittsburgh since 1996. Ducks are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Penguins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Anaheim. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the NHL this season so far. Anaheim has played below average this season. I think all that changes tonight. We'll play Anaheim for 4 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.

Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and nine TD's.

It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.

On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.

The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.

It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.

Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.

As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season! *9* BOWLING GREEN.

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections
NCAA Football
2 (**) Bowling Green +3

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
NBA Basketball
2 (**) Philadelphia +7
2 (**) Washington +11.5
2 (**) Utah +5.5

[Mr. IWS]

BALFE

Suns/Heat Under 216

[Mr. IWS]

MALINSKY

MIAMI HEAT (-3) over Phoenix Suns

4* #314 MIAMI over PHOENIX

In favoring Miami by less than the value of the court they are making a long-term statement that we do not agree with in this one, and with the style matchup strongly favoring the Heat we can call for a much easier win than the oddsmakers are projecting. We are not Phoenix fans. The chemistry on the defensive end of the court is awful, with Steve Nash and Grant Hill getting long on the tooth, Amare Stoudemire rarely showing interest, and no shot blocker in the middle to make up for the deficiencies (until Robin Lopez returns, and he is still awfully raw). And a lack of quality depth makes it even more difficult to play with defensive intensity for 48 minutes. It will make them hard-pressed to beat quality opponents on the road, but they get thrown into the wrong price range here because of that ridiculously weak opening schedule of the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. Miami is a different story at the defensive end of the court. The Heat have held each of their first three opponents to their season low in scoring, rating #2 in the NBA on our best charts, and #1 in FG percentage allowed. It has been the solid work of Erik Spoelstra bringing that young roster together quickly, and the leadership on the court of Dwayne Wade creating a win-first, me-second focus. And while the Suns have those depth issues that accentuate their weaknesses, Spoelsta?s decision to bring Udonis Haslem off the bench is creating a much better game flow for the Heat, while Joel Anthony is also making major defensive contributions, rating 6th in the league in blocked shots in only 18 minutes per game. Dwayne Wade is a ?finisher?, and now that the cast around him has grown up the Heat are going to be difficult to close out on this court ? since the All Star break LY they are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the favorite?s role, and the Suns do not bring what it takes to alter that flow

[Mr. IWS]

ATS

buff 4unit

[Mr. IWS]

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
NHL Hockey



25* Play Detroit (-165) over Boston

[Mr. IWS]

st bernadine sports advisors
john Keelan(abats computer simulator) -
1*Bowling Green+3.5 (no write up)

Matt Dennehy(lillefty) -
1* miami heat -3.5 over phoenix suns
1st of a 5 game east coast swing for the suns. Everybody is on the suns bandwagon with their 3-0 start. It is nice but they beat the t-wolves, clippers and warriors. I know you can only play the games on your schedule but this isn't much different than the Football giants racking up the #1 defense by playing cupcakes. Eventually you get exposed. I think Miami exposes them some tonight. The heat just come off a tough win over a pretty good bulls team. Phoenix always struggles in Miami. They have covered only 1 of the last 8 meetings there. The home team is 8-3 L11 meetings between the 2 teams.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

Celtics
Wizards

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - BUFFALO BULLS....
10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS



20 DIMER - BUFFALO BULLS

A pair of 3-5 teams go at it, and to me 2 factors favor Buffalo, as # 1 head coach Turner Gill rates the edge over 1st year coach Dave Clawson, and # 2 Buffalo is at home under the primetime lights for this game.

That's really it for me. Small home chalk in a "must-win" situation, and after last week's overtime loss at Western Michigan, I expect the Bulls to be right back in the saddle, and handle their business in this home date.

This is the Falcons 3rd road game in their last 4 weeks, and after winning their previous 2 in conference play, I look for them to come up a little shy tonight.

Stick with Buffalo,

10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS

Indiana hasn't shown much through their first 2 games, losing both by double-digits.

Denver is off to a 3-0 start, covering in 2 of the 3, and the Nuggets have covered 7 of their last 8 on the road dating back to last season.

The Nuggets are also 8-2 against the spread the last 10 times they have faced the Pacers, and with this being the start of a lengthy road swing for Denver, I expect them to beat up on a team they should beat up on.

Lay the road wood with the Nuggs.

[Mr. IWS]

Evan Altemus

Phoenix vs. Miami

Phoenix has played the LA Clippers, Minnesota, and Golden State to start the season, a very weak schedule. They have also played two of those teams at home. The Suns are still being regarded as the highest scoring team in the league of a few seasons ago, but their line-up is nowhere near as good as it used to be. Miami will be the best defensive team that the Suns have faced this season, and the Heat don’t want to run up and down the floor with Phoenix. The Heat has held their first three opponents to 87 points per game and 38% from the field. I look for this game to be lower scoring with Miami controlling the tempo. Both teams will be fully rested for this game as well, which will help them play better defense.

3 UNIT SELECTION UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond

Denver/Indiana Under

When DENVER played as a road team - During Last 4 Years - Won Last Game by 10 Points or More; the UNDER is 40-22-1 for the Nuggets in this role the L4Y

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George

Utah vs. Dallas

Utah same ol same ol, they beat everyone at home and lose damn near every night on the road. A bad road team, and when your defense is allowing 108 ppg, that is just what Dallas needs, uncontested shots at the basket to jump start their 92 ppg average, at home. Dallas allows just 88 ppg, that is 20 ppg less than Utah, plus they also hold a solid rebounding edge here. Like the Mavs at home here to get rolling.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Black Widow

* Widow Wise guy MAC Tuesday Night BLOOD BATH on Buffalo -3(+105 at Bodog)

Buffalo wins running away Tuesday on ESPN 2. Both the Bulls and the Bowling Green Falcons sit at 3-5 right now, but Buffalo is the superior team and home field gives them a big advantage here. Bowling Green is a 1-man wrecking crew, and Buffalo will be prepared to stop Freddie Barnes tonight. To put it in perspective, Barnes has 99 catches this season which is tops in the nation. He has 56 more grabs then the next closest on the team. So really, Buffalo just needs to stop Barnes and they'll run away with this game. The Bulls can beat you in a variety of ways with playmakers all over the field. They have a two-headed attack in the backfield with Ike Nduka and Brandon Thermilus as each has more than 78 carries this season and they have combined for 861 rushing yards on the year. At receiver, they have two studs in Naaman Roosevelt and Brett Hamlin who have combined for 1,436 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Roosevelt has 60 catches for 768 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Hamlin has 50 grabs for 666 yards and 2 scores. Then you throw in red-zone target Jesse Rack, who has 5 touchdowns catches on just 20 grabs this season. We'll side with this dynamic Buffalo offense every time against a team that really only has one big weapon. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. The Bulls are 12-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Take Buffalo and lay the points.


5* N BA "S TE AL" of the Week on Washington Wizards +11.5(-103 at 5dimes)

Washington is one of the most underrated teams in the league to start the season. This line is inflated tonight, and if there's one team that Washington would like to beat in the NBA, it's certainly the Cleveland Cavaliers. These teams have had some fierce battles in the playoffs when Gilbert Arenas was healthy, and now that he's healthy this season the Wizards are a force to be reckoned with in the East. Washington has opened the season 2-1 with a nice road win at Dallas and a blowout home win over the Nets. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cleveland, including winning 2 out of 3 outright against Cleveland last season when they weren't at full strength. This team just gets up to face the Cavs because of their history. The underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Washington and the points.


4* on Indiana Pacers +6(-105 at SIA)

The Pacers have opened the season 0-2 while the Nuggets are 3-0 to start the 2009 season. With these starts also comes serious line value on Indiana at home Tuesday night. The Pacers are very hungry for their first win of the season, and we think they get it tonight against Denver. The Nuggets have played just one road game this year, winning by 3 points at Portland. Denver also struggled to beat the Grizzlies at home last time out, winning by 10 points as an 11-point favorite. In fact, all 3 of their wins have come by 10 points or less. We strongly feel the Nuggets are overrated right now. Indiana is 9-4 S.U. in their last 13 home meetings with Denver. The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central. The Pacers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Pacers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take Indiana and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS financial fb 11/3

Fball 3 units over

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast Marquee : Buffalo / BG over

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner
3* Buffalo -2.5
3* Cleveland -11
2* Cleveland Over 197

[Mr. IWS]

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends.com
2-0 last night 6-1 in two days!
*200 Toronto Maple Leafs Over 6
*200 Bowling Green +3
*200 Indiana Pacers +5.5

Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends.com
1-1 Last Night.
*200 Oklahoma City Thunder +8
*200 Miami Heat -4

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

NBA

50* Philly
50* LAL
100* "steam"- Denver

NCAAF

100* BG/Buff under (he has it at 54)