11-5-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

11-05-2009, 04:32 PM

BURNS

I'm playing on Virginia Tech and East Carolina to finish OVER the total. Having cashed quite a few 'under' tickets on them over the past couple of seasons, including last week, I'm well aware that Hokies have been a profitable 'under' team on Thursday nights. This is an entirely different matchup though, one which I expect will prove quite a lot more high-scoring than many are expecting. I won with the Pirates when they defeated Memphis 38-19 in their last game. I wasn't that surprised that they managed 38 points. After all, they'd scored 49 the previous week. However, a closer look shows that the Pirates were actually somewhat fortunate to only allow 19 points. That's because they allowed nearly 400 (397) total yards, including a whopping 313 through the air. That makes it six of seven opponents that have thrown for more than 260 yards against them. I expect the revenge-minded Hokies, who average greater than 30 points per game, to have plenty of success moving the ball, both on the ground and through the air. Two of the last three meetings between these teams have finished above the total. Including those results, the Pirates have seen the OVER go 5-2 their last seven against teams from the ACC. Note that they combined with North Carolina, a very strong defensive team with a mediocre offense, for 48 points. Facing a stronger offense, they combined with WVU for 55 the previous week. Including those results, the Pirates have seen the OVER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were listed as underdogs. As for the Hokies, including their earlier 52-10 victory over Marshall they've seen the OVER go 4-1 their last five against teams from Conference USA. Including their 34-26 win at Duke, the Hokies have seen the OVER go 3-1 the last four times that they were listed as road favorites and 6-3 the last nine times that they were favored by greater than eight points. Overall, they've seen the OVER go 11-6 their last 17 road games. More of the same here. *10 Top Thurs Total

I'm taking the points with MIAMI OHIO. The majority of the betting public would prefer to back the stronger team. They'll generally only take points with an underdog if that underdog is at home and/or is perceived to be a 'good' team. That's not the case here. Not only is Miami Ohio on the road but the RedHawks also come in with an ugly 1-8 record. Therefore, its not that surprising to see the line on favored Temple climb significantly from its opening number. I believe that has given us excellent value with the visiting underdogs. Yes, the Red Hawks have just one victory. However, that victory game in their last game(31-24 vs. Toledo) so they've got some positive momentum for this game. Additionally, despite the record, they've been quite competitive for six straight games now. They went 4-2 ATS over those games. Only one loss came by three touchdowns (lost by 24) and that was at Cincinnati, vs. a very powerful Bearcats team. Three of their last five losses have come by 10 points or less. Prior to the victory over Toledo, Miami Ohio lost by only five points vs. Northern Illinois. Bringing an impressive six game winning streak to the table, the Owls are to be respected. However, they just became bowl eligible with a big win over Navy last time out and I feel that they may start to get a little over-confident here, particularly when facing the "lowly RedHawks." As impressive as their season has been, the Owls haven't been blowing out teams. In fact, none of their last five victories has come by more than 16 points. For all the RedHawks problems, they're still 6-2 ATS their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 22-13 ATS their last 35 lined games against winning teams. The last meeting between these teams here was decided by a touchdown and I look for this one to also be closer than many are expecting. *9 Thurs GOW

I'm taking the points with EASTERN MICHIGAN. I believe that last week's results have helped to provide us with terrific line value here. The Eagles were blown out while the Huskies won by 17. However, the Eagles blowout loss came vs. an SEC team(Arkansas) and the Huskies' win (vs. Akron) was actually close the entire way. Off that victory, the Huskies are now being asked to win by three touchdowns. Yet, they've only beaten one 1-A team (Western Mich.) by more than 17 points all season. The Huskies do have a powerful running attack. However, they've got problems at the QB position and their passing attack isn't very good. That doesn't tend to lead to many huge blowouts. Prior to the win over Akron, their previous two games were decided by just six combined points. Despite their winless record, the Eagles have played some competitive games. Prior to the blowout loss vs. Arkansas, they lost by just two points vs. Ball State. While that was at home, earlier in the season, they went on the road and lost by only three at Northwestern. Note that they were 22 point underdogs in that one. Having been embarrassed 37-0 at home by the Huskies last season, the Eagles should bring some added motivation into tonight's game. Note that they won outright the last time that they played here at Northern Illinois. Additionally, note that the Eagles brought back 17 starters (most in the MAC) from last year's team while the Huskies brought back 11. Those 17 returning starters haven't forgotten last season. The Eagles are 6-4 ATS the last 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 14.5 to 21 point range. They've scored 27 points in back to back games and I look for them to score enough to hang within the number this evening. *7 Roast

I'm playing on UTAH. The Jazz have gotten off to a slow start. However, they're a very talented team and they've been very tough at home in recent seasons. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get on track this evening. The Spurs have won both home games. However, they lost their only road contest, a 92-85 setback at Chicago. Including that result, they're just 5-8 SU/ATS the past few seasons, when listed as road favorites of three points or less. During the same stretch, the Jazz have gone a profitable 4-1 SU/ATS as home underdogs of three points or less. Over that period, the Jazz have gone a very impressive 76-16 SU (including this season's 1-1 mark) at home, going a profitable 54-36-2 against the number. (San Antonio was 41-52-1 ATS on the road) The Spurs have had several days off since their blowout win on Halloween vs. Sacramento. That's not necessarily that big a positive though. They're a mediocre 7-6 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they played with three or more day's off between games. Additionally, over the same stretch, they're only 27-35-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory. While they've really struggled at San Antonio and have lost four straight overall in the series, the Jazz are still a solid 5-2 the last seven times that they hosted the Spurs. This is a big game for them and I expect them to respond with a big effort, bouncing back and moving to 4-0 ATS the last four times that they scored 85 points or less in their previous game. *7 TNT GOW