11-9-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
*DENVER (+3 at -120 odds) 21 Pittsburgh 16
05:30 PM Pacific, 09-Nov-09
I've won twice with Denver as 3-Star Best Bets this season, at home against New England and at San Diego, but I passed on the underrated Broncos last week because the situation was against them (although I still made them a strong opinion). I was sort of glad that Denver lost last week at Baltimore because it assured that the Broncos would remain an underrated team. That blowout loss sets up Denver in a 48-18-3 ATS home bounce-back situation that plays on mediocre or good teams after a loss of 20 points or more. I certainly don't expect Denver to play poorly at home, where visiting teams have so much trouble with the thin air at high altitude. Good teams have regularly been beaten at Mile High, including Dallas and New England as favorites this year. Denver is particularly good at home when they are considered the inferior team (i.e. favored by 2 or less or getting points). The Broncos are an incredible 33-7-2 ATS at home as a favorite of 2 or less, a pick, or an underdog since 1981 and that trend has worked for every coach that's been here. The Broncos are 19-1-1 ATS in their last 21 home games from -2 to dog, including the 2 wins this season. Pittsburgh's injured riddled defensive line rotation will have players gasping for air, as you need a deep rotation of defensive linemen in order to survive the high altitude and that is something that Pittsburgh does not have with DE Aaron Smith's backup Travis Kirschke now also out with an injury.

Not only does Denver have a great history at home against good teams but the Broncos are just as good as Pittsburgh and should be a 3 point favorite in this game. Let's take a look at the numbers. Pittsburgh has averaged 6.3 yards per play on offense against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate the Steelers' attack at 1.0 yppl better than average with Rashard Mendenhall as the main ball carrier. Denver's defense is actually slightly better than Pittsburgh's offense, as the Broncos have allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, which makes that unit 1.1 yppl better than average. Denver actually played just as well as normal on defense in their 7-30 loss last week, allowing just 4.8 yppl to a Baltimore offense that would average 5.9 yppl at home against an average team. They just didn't force any turnovers for the first time all season and the offense set them up in bad field position.

Denver's offense did play poorly last week (3.5 yppl) and the offense now rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Pittsburgh's defense is good, but not great this season, as the Steeler rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team.

Pittsburgh does have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Denver's offense and an overall advantage of 0.3 yppl over the Broncos, but Denver has a 2.5 points edge in projected turnovers with quarterback Kyle Orton still without a meaningful interception this season (his lone pick was on a Hail Mary at the end of the half against New England). Both teams are bad in special teams and my math model favors Denver by 3 points overall.

In addition to Denver's great history at home in this price range, the Broncos also apply to a 48-18-3 ATS Monday night home team angle while Pittsburgh's long tradition of failure as a road favorite the week after a victory (23-42-3 ATS since 1980) has continued under coach Mike Tomlin (1-8 ATS). I'll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -115 or better.

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Monday, November 09, 2009

4*Broncos (+3) over Steelers

8:30 PM -- Invesco Field at Mile High
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

15 Dime - Pittsburgh Steelers

[kreekor]

BEN BURNS

7-1 RUN

AFC GAME OF THE WEEK!

I'm laying the points with PITTSBURGH. The Broncos come in with both the better record and home field advantage. However, they finally got exposed in last week's blowout loss at Baltimore. I had the Ravens in that game and I feel that the Broncos are in for another very tough match this week. The Steelers are off a big win over a strong Minnesota team. Including that victory, in addition to having won four straight overall, they're now a highly profitable 47-27-3 ATS (55-22 SU) their last 77 "Week 5 through Week 9" games. They've had a bye since then, too. Note that they're 4-0 SU the last four times they were coming off a bye, including a 38-10 road win last season. Both teams like to run the ball and both teams have been great at stopping the run. However, the Steelers are even stronger in that area. Indeed, they're #1 at stopping the run in the league (Broncos are #3) and they haven't allowed an opposing back to reach the 100 yard mark in their last 25 regular season games. Perhaps more importantly, the Steelers have the superior passing attack. Rothlisberger, a proven winner, currently ranks third in league with over 2000 passing yards already. The Steelers have won 22 of their last 30 Monday Night games while Denver has gone just 15-19 on Monday Nights during that time. I look for the champs, 14-6 their last 20 November games, to continue that primetime success, covering the small number along the way. *8 AFC GOW

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer


(429) PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs (430) DENVER BRONCOS
Take under
I'm playing the Under between the Steelers and Broncos on Monday night. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger had to lead this offense more with his arm at times this season than he's used to. He's been one of the best for a while now at throwing the ball on the run when teams bring a pass rush up the middle. Denver normally likes to rush the interior, but they know better against Big Ben. Best of all, Denver owns the talent to rush the QB from the outside. When this happens, Pittsburgh is forced to keep their TEs and backs in, as extra protection. Subsequently, the Steeler spread offense becomes much less effective. Pittsburgh is going to have to commit to the ground game enough to keep the Denver defense from teeing off from the perimeter. Obviously, this means less deep chances through the air for Ben; a clock that keeps running; and the potential for a low scoring game. The Broncos have played outstanding defense at home, holding their three "guests" to an average of 11 ppg on just 273.3-total yards per game. That includes a run defense that gives up just 74.7-yards per game on 3.07-yards per carry at home. Denver's pass defense has allowed just two passing TDs at home with a couple of picks. I also expect the Bronco offense to have their problems in this one. Kyle Orton will face a steady diet of blitz packages if the Broncos don't get the ground game in gear. Orton tends to look underneath for short routes when the blitz package is heavy. That means the passing game is going to be more of an extension of the running game in all likelihood, and not many chances to go deep. I expect the Denver coaching staff to look to bang away at the bruised Pittsburgh defensive line to off-set the Steelers' blitz-happy appro ach. Once again, we have a plan of attack that leads to shorter gains, the need for sustained drives, and the potential for a low scoring contest. Denver has had their way, so to speak, against good offenses...those averaging 350-yards or more per game. The Broncos have forced those teams into lower scoring games than expected, posting a 6-0 mark to the Under. The average final score in those six games is in the mid-30s. Six of Denver's seven games this season have stayed beneath tonight's total, and last week's final was misleading, yet still went Under tonight's number. The two teams combined for a grand total of 492-yards on just 4.1 yards per play. And there were only 23-total points on the board two minutes into the fourth quarter. Everything adds up to a low scoring game tonight, and having a pair of the better pass-rushers in the league on the field doesn't hurt. My Monday Night Total of the Year is a play on the Under. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns MNF TOY

Under Steelers/Broncos