11-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

lang

Tuesday's Selection ...
Note:
Don't think I could have broken down that game any better for you.

Big Ben or Kyle Orton? Simple as that.

Bottom line folks is you don't have 2 weeks to prepare for someone, 2 weeks to gameplan, 2 weeks to be 100% ready only to go to Baltimore and look like you never ran a play in your life.

Did you really think Denver was going to execute for 60 minutes against the Steelers defense if they couldn't score more than 7 points against the Ravens?

Like I said, you give me the Steelers laying a 3 number against anybody on the planet with a week to prepare and I will jump all over it.

In a really good rhythm right now going 3-0 Saturday, 2-0 Sunday and 1-0 Monday. I've gone 7-1-1 last 9 weekly college football releases last 3 weeks Tuesday thru Friday.

Just have to keep it going. Keep building off the winning week last week. The +100 dimes the last 3 days.

I am very aware of how much work stills needs to be done and I am taking on that challenge head on.

10 DIME - BUFFALO BULLS - There will be no quit in Turner Gill's squad tonight.

First of all, this line is coming down as people are starting to jump on Ohio in this football game. Jump all you want.

From the outside it looks like Ohio has everything to play for at 6-3, and competing for the MAC East title and a date in the MAC championship game, and has had 10 days to get ready for this game but there is a game they just played that concerns me in this spot here.

3 weeks ago ago at home to Kent State, the Bobcats lost 20-11 mustering up 164 yards total offense against the 56th ranked defense in the country. I'm talking 11 points and 164 total yards here folks.

Now you are facing a defense in Buffalo ranked 55th but this time you are on the road.

Here are other concerns for me in trying to make a case for Ohio in this game.

Against a schedule that features just 2 BCS opponents in UConn and Tennessee with the rest being MAC opponents and Cal Poly, Ohio's offense comes in ranked 93rd running the football, 90th passing all adding up to the 105th total offense out of 120 teams.

Conversely, Buffalo has played Pittsburgh, UTEP, UCF, and the two best teams in the MAC in Temple and Central Michigan, and through a much tougher schedule have managed the 50th best running attack, 35th passing for the 35th best offensive team in the country.

Yes, defensively Ohio is ranked 37th overall to the Bulls 55 but again, in my opinion, Buffalo has played a much tougher schedule. Simple as that.

I am impressed with Ohio's performance at Tennessee but to lay the kind of egg they laid at home to Kent State has me a bit concerned here.

Let's not lose sight of one thing here. Buffalo was one 3rd down conversion away from beating Bowling Green, and they are also one or two plays away from being 7-2. This is fantasitic value with the Bulls tonight.

They have beaten Ohio by double digits the last 2 years, and like I said at the top, there will be no quit in Turner Gill's team tonight. They are on national TV for the 2nd straight week and from a recruiting standpoint, they will take this game as serioius as any game this year.

Finally, it's not out of the question for Buffalo to finish 6-6 and still get a bowl game and I truly believe that will be Gill's mantra besides the fact he will not want to lose back to back home games in the MAC.

I am going against the public line move, with the home team, with the better offense, against a team they have manhandled the last 2 years to win this game and keep their slim bowl hopes alive.

10 dime BUFFALO

FREE SELECTION - OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

Ohio 26 BUFFALO (-1.5) 24
Over/Under Total: 46.0
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-10

Buffalo will be without top back Ike Nduka (598 yards at 6.2 ypr) but freshman Jeffvon Gill ran for 172 yards on 23 carries last week in his first extensive time, so Nduka may not be missed. Bulls' quarterback Zach Maynard will miss the first quarter due to suspension, but Buffalo will probably run the ball more with backup Jerry Davis in and that probably won't hurt too much since I expect Buffalo to average 5.0 yards per rushing play in this game. Ohio defends the pass pretty well (5.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.6 yppp against an average team), but Maynard is a pretty decent passing quarterback (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB), so the Bulls should move the ball at about an average rate in this game.

Ohio is 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but Buffalo is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so Ohio should also be able to move the ball. The big difference in this game is special teams, which is an area that Buffalo really struggles in and Ohio's good field goal kicker or Buffalo's bad one could be the difference in what should be a close game. I'll lean with Ohio.