View Full Version : MMA Junkie's Performify Analyzes Vera/Couture
Interesting stuff here. He is not always right, but is ahead overall. . .
UFC 105 appears not only a mediocre card from this fan's perspective, but also is extremely uninteresting from a gambling perspective. As such, there is only one fight I'm remotely interested in betting, and due to some significant limitations on my time this week I'll apologize in advance but I'm only able to break down that one fight, which is Brandon "The Truth" Vera (+100) vs Randy "The Natural" Couture (-120).
At 46 years old, Randy Couture (16-10 MMA, 13-7 UFC) is a legend of the sport. Already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame, Couture's biggest strength outside of his legendary fight IQ is his wrestling; he was a three time All-American and four time Olympic Team alternate. "The Natural" is most dangerous from the clinch, where he is equally likely to punish you with dirty boxing as he is to dump you to the ground. Once he has you down, Couture holds top position well and depends on ground-and-pound punishment rather than submissions.
Couture traditionally displayed decent standup skills with good head movement throughout his career, but his striking skill, and especially his defensive skills, appear to have declined moderately as he looked supremely sub-par while getting picked apart on the feet by Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuria at UFC 102.
Once a highly touted heavyweight prospect, Brandon Vera (11-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC) was run out of the division by consecutive losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum. Now Vera is 3-1 as a light heavyweight with the lone loss via split decision to Keith Jardine at UFC 89.
"The Truth" is a strategic striker who efectively utilizes his length to traditionally fight using his Muay Thai skills from distance. Not many realize that Vera also has a strong wrestling background: he went to Old Dominion on a wrestling scholarship before dropping out to join the Air Force; there he was on the force's wrestling team and trained at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs. Vera has also competed in Abu-Dhabi and has eight championships from Grappler's Quest.
A former two-time light heavyweight title holder, Couture returns to the 205-pound division for the first time since a 2006 loss to Chuck Liddell. The drop shouldn't be drastic for the 46-year-old, as Couture weighed just 220 pounds for his August headlining loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at "UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira."
I believe Vera to be a solid bet at these odds. I believe, as evidenced by Couture's previous outing, that Vera should be able to find significant success on the feet from range with his Muay Thai skills. I believe Vera's wrestling background and athleticism should help him dictate where the fight takes place -- while Couture will most certainly look to put Vera on his back, I believe Vera's Muay Thai training should mean danger for Couture's clinch work, and I believe Vera's underrated wrestling -- while definitely not better than Couture's, should help him neutralize Couture's gameplan and allow him to keep more of the fight standing where he has the most significant advantage.
If he can close ground on his opponent, and if Vera's wrestling does end up to be more towards the equalizer I'm expecting, Couture will most likely look to keep Vera pressed against the cage for much of this fight, to neutralize his range and his Muay Thai. Vera should still be dangerous with knees inside and with elbows over the top, but there is certainly a possibility that Couture can neutralize Vera against the cage for sufficient time to win a decision. But I believe Vera has several clean and clear paths to victory, compared to only essentially one for Couture. With decreased mobility and speed, Randy has apparently struggled defending looping blows to the side of his head in his past few fights, and I see Vera stumbling his legendary opponent with a well-placed shin or a heel to the side of the head before finishing with a flurry.
Vera +100, which you might also see listed as "EV," as "Even," or "-100" -- all mean the same, that for every dollar you risk, you'll win a dollar (as opposed to Couture -120 meaning you'll win a dollar for every $1.20 risked). I believe this to be a close fight, thus potentially a high-variance outcome. Still, I believe the betting line offers us an opportunity to bet what should be a moderate favorite at even odds, swinging the potential outcome in our favor. Still, if I'm right about Vera having a reasonable edge in this contest, you'd still expect to lose at minimum 35%-40% of the time, so once again practice good bankroll management techniques.
http://mmajunkie.com/news/16829/perform ... fc-105.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/16829/performifys-picks-for-ufc-105.mma)
Mr. IWS
11-12-2009, 03:03 PM
Good stuff. I can see this fight going either way, but If I had a gun to my head, I would back Couture.
I agree. I am hoping Couture pulls it out, and probably favor him, but unlike Luke I don't think this is going to be a walk in the park for either guy.
This guy is nuts Vera stands no chance .I'm wrong about a lot of things but I dont think this fight is one of them
This guy is nuts Vera stands no chance .I'm wrong about a lot of things but I dont think this fight is one of them
Have you dropped dollars on Couture yet? If not, are you going to?
Mr. IWS
11-12-2009, 04:05 PM
I can definatly see the fight going the way this guys says. Just a gut feeling on my part that couture grinds it out though.
But would not be suprised at all if Vera KO's him.
I can definatly see the fight going the way this guys says. Just a gut feeling on my part that couture grinds it out though.
But would not be suprised at all if Vera KO's him.
I agree completely. To me, this is a fight that will tell us a lot about Couture. We're going to find out if he "still has it." There are a lot of ???s surrounding him right now and this fight will provide a lot of answers.
For the record, I hope Couture wins. He's the man.
This guy is nuts Vera stands no chance .I'm wrong about a lot of things but I dont think this fight is one of them
Have you dropped dollars on Couture yet? If not, are you going to?
Yeah I'm putting 5 units down on Couture .Might lock it in tonight since I can get +100 on him
Too many people are looking at Randys last two fights and thinking he's done. These fights were against people bigger and stronger then Couture . Its hard to grapple and and throw around a fighter bigger and stronger than you. In this fight Randy will be the same size as Vera. I see Randy closing the distance against Vera putting him against the cage and that sholuld be it for Vera and his chance to win
Randy has fought A level fighters in every fight for the past 8 years except for one or two fights.Vera is not a A level fighter ,I dont even consider him a B level fighter. His only win of his career than can even be spoken of is that over a fat out of shape Mir . A in shape Mir would destroy him
You know Luke, we have ridden together in the past and it's worked out pretty well. You make some good points, especially regarding the fact that Randy will not be oversized this time around. I am really on the fence with this one but your confidence emboldens me. Maybe this is more of a bet with the heart than with the head, but I just put 1.25u on him @ -120.
Let's hope the old man pulls it out!
I think looking at Randy's last 2 fights is applicable in this case considering how old he is. We're not looking at anomalies, we're looking at depreciation. Nog has slowed down quite a bit and Randy still looked slow compared to him. Vera is going to be significantly faster and I don't think Randy will be able to handle it. Even if Randy finds some success with his predictable gameplan of clinchwork and takedowns, I don't believe he has the offense required to really hurt Vera, nor do I think he can win 2 of 3 rounds. Randy can really only win a decision here. Vera can also win a decision just as easily, or he can catch Randy and knock him out at any time, possibly even submit him. I think Vera ends Randy's career Saturday night.
You know Luke, we have ridden together in the past and it's worked out pretty well. You make some good points, especially regarding the fact that Randy will not be oversized this time around. I am really on the fence with this one but your confidence emboldens me. Maybe this is more of a bet with the heart than with the head, but I just put 1.25u on him @ -120.
Let's hope the old man pulls it out!
I've been wrong before man.I'm much much better at boxing than MMA betting.I want to hear Zaks thoughts on this fight he's better at MMA than me. I really like Randy in this one but remember I liked Randy against NOG. I just dont think much of Vera or hi ability
BTW there is definitely variance and I'm going small on Vera simply because he has the capacity to just go full retard and throw the fight away.
I've been wrong before man.I'm much much better at boxing than MMA betting.I want to hear Zaks thoughts on this fight he's better at MMA than me. I really like Randy in this one but remember I liked Randy against NOG. I just dont think much of Vera or hi ability
Well I've been thinking from the beginning that I was going to go with Couture or not at all. I've been contemplating it quite a bit. I can't say I'm confident in this one, but fuck it. Let's roll.
WAR COUTURE!
I think looking at Randy's last 2 fights is applicable in this case considering how old he is. We're not looking at anomalies, we're looking at depreciation. Nog has slowed down quite a bit and Randy still looked slow compared to him. Vera is going to be significantly faster and I don't think Randy will be able to handle it. Even if Randy finds some success with his predictable gameplan of clinchwork and takedowns, I don't believe he has the offense required to really hurt Vera, nor do I think he can win 2 of 3 rounds. Randy can really only win a decision here. Vera can also win a decision just as easily, or he can catch Randy and knock him out at any time, possibly even submit him. I think Vera ends Randy's career Saturday night.
I know one thing for sure Randy isnt getting submitted .If Nog couldnt do it Vera has no chance of submitting him.
You like Vera please explain why he has only won 3 of his last 6 fights
Wins against Krzysztof Soszynski ,Michael Patt ,and Reese Andy bum ,bum ,bum
Losses against Keith Jardine ,Fabricio Werdum ,and Tim Sylvia B level fighter,B level fighter, B level figter
Silvia is as slow as a fighter gets and he couldnt beat him
He cant even beat guys B level fighters how is he going to beat a legend that knows everything there is to know about MMA fighting ,game plainning ,and closing the distance?
BTW there is definitely variance and I'm going small on Vera simply because he has the capacity to just go full retard and throw the fight away.
full retard ::lmao::
I've been wrong before man.I'm much much better at boxing than MMA betting.I want to hear Zaks thoughts on this fight he's better at MMA than me. I really like Randy in this one but remember I liked Randy against NOG. I just dont think much of Vera or hi ability
Well I've been thinking from the beginning that I was going to go with Couture or not at all. I've been contemplating it quite a bit. I can't say I'm confident in this one, but fuck it. Let's roll.
WAR COUTURE!
Lets roll .I'm going big and am confident ::handshake::
Wins against Krzysztof Soszynski ,Michael Patt ,and Reese Andy bum ,bum ,bum
Patt and Andy, maybe, but K-Sos is a damn good fighter. He might not be a contender, but he's solid and very respectable competition.
I think looking at Randy's last 2 fights is applicable in this case considering how old he is. We're not looking at anomalies, we're looking at depreciation. Nog has slowed down quite a bit and Randy still looked slow compared to him. Vera is going to be significantly faster and I don't think Randy will be able to handle it. Even if Randy finds some success with his predictable gameplan of clinchwork and takedowns, I don't believe he has the offense required to really hurt Vera, nor do I think he can win 2 of 3 rounds. Randy can really only win a decision here. Vera can also win a decision just as easily, or he can catch Randy and knock him out at any time, possibly even submit him. I think Vera ends Randy's career Saturday night.
I know one thing for sure Randy isnt getting submitted .If Nog couldnt do it Vera has no chance of submitting him.
You like Vera please explain why he has only won 3 of his last 6 fights
Wins against Krzysztof Soszynski ,Michael Patt ,and Reese Andy bum ,bum ,bum
Losses against Keith Jardine ,Fabricio Werdum ,and Tim Sylvia B level fighter,B level fighter, B level figter
Silvia is as slow as a fighter gets and he couldnt beat him
He cant even beat guys B level fighters how is he going to beat a legend that knows everything there is to know about MMA fighting ,game plainning ,and closing the distance?
Christ. If you wanna go all Sherdog on me then two can play that game. :)
When was Randy's last win at LHW? 2005? Mike Van who?
Vera has lost 3 of his 6. Ok let's see, Randy has lost....3 of his last 6. Also he hasn't won a fight at all in over 2 years.
As far as Brandon's losses go...
If Jardine is a B level fighter then Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin must be some real chumps to lose to such a can. Besides his fight with Vera was a razor thin decision that realistically could've gone either way.
Werdum is a B level fighter? Why? Because he lost to JDS? Dos Santos would smash Randy too. Werdum beat Gonzaga just like Randy. Twice actually. And faster than Randy. Beside, the stoppage in the Werdum/Vera fight was absolutely godawful terrible, and one of Dan MIragliotta's finest moments. How this is considered a legit loss is beyond me.
The Sylvia fight is his worst loss, and even then he wasn't taking much damage. If I remember correctly it was a boring clinch war. Tim may be slow and awkward but he knows how to use his physical tools well, namely his reach/jab and his size in the clinch. He may be a B level fighter by today's standards considering how fat and sloppy he showed up to get knocked out by Ray Mercer, but 2 years ago he was anything but the sort. The same Sylvia turned Nogueira into hamburger meat for 2 rounds. I hate to get too much into MMA math but that's the same Nogueira that just dominated Randy in September.
Although I have to admit, for 46 years old(or any age for that matter), Randy Couture is in TREMENDOUS shape!
http://i34.tinypic.com/23h3pd1.jpg
I'm a little over half his age and much sloppier. ::lmao::
^^^ He'd kick MY ass, that's for sure.
Also, it's undoubtedly the angle, but he looks YOUNG there, even in his goofy ass face he's sporting.
Vera is a bum
j/k lol
that fight could hve went either way on the scorecards. ::handshake::
Mr. IWS
11-14-2009, 11:13 PM
Hell of a 3rd round, could have went either way.
I think Handy took it on the escape/exchange at the end of the 3rd round.
Terrible decision. Randy was holding onto the clinch for dear life. This clinch and do nothing and win a fight shit is killing MMA. Even Clay Guida would've balked at this decision.
BTW Fuck Dan Hardy. I was big on Swick. I like the guy but I can't wait to see him destroyed by GSP.
BTW Fuck Dan Hardy. I was big on Swick. I like the guy but I can't wait to see him destroyed by GSP.
sorry man about the Swick fight ::handshake::
Vera couldnt get away and Randy sure wasnt letting him get away
You can't win a fight by forcing a stalemate. It was actually a bad matchup for Randy. His only way to win was to do what he did, but the guy he was fighting is an accomplished Greco guy as well, so it ends up being a boring fench fight.
Although if Vera had finished it in the 2nd round like he should have, we wouldn't be having this conversation. How you gonna knee a man in the body so hard he doubles over and turns away from you, then fall in his guard, throw one punch and lay there? I don't know what Vera's problem is. He has the skills to compete with anyone, but he seems to make poor decisions in fights.
Randy doesn't take damage well at all anymore. I hope for his sake they don't have him fight Shogun or Machida. Talk about a bloodbath.
Mr. IWS
11-15-2009, 11:29 AM
How you gonna knee a man in the body so hard he doubles over and turns away from you, then fall in his guard, throw one punch and lay there?
Couldnt agree more.
You can't win a fight by forcing a stalemate. It was actually a bad matchup for Randy. His only way to win was to do what he did, but the guy he was fighting is an accomplished Greco guy as well, so it ends up being a boring fench fight.
Although if Vera had finished it in the 2nd round like he should have, we wouldn't be having this conversation. How you gonna knee a man in the body so hard he doubles over and turns away from you, then fall in his guard, throw one punch and lay there? I don't know what Vera's problem is. He has the skills to compete with anyone, but he seems to make poor decisions in fights.
Randy doesn't take damage well at all anymore. I hope for his sake they don't have him fight Shogun or Machida. Talk about a bloodbath.
Veras a bum thats why.I think all the laying on him by Randy made him tired or he's just that dumb.
How do you say:
You can't win a fight by forcing a stalemate and then say:
His only way to win was to do what he did You're counterdicting yourself
He did what he knew he had to do to win the fight
[quote=zY|]You can't win a fight by forcing a stalemate. It was actually a bad matchup for Randy. His only way to win was to do what he did, but the guy he was fighting is an accomplished Greco guy as well, so it ends up being a boring fench fight.
Although if Vera had finished it in the 2nd round like he should have, we wouldn't be having this conversation. How you gonna knee a man in the body so hard he doubles over and turns away from you, then fall in his guard, throw one punch and lay there? I don't know what Vera's problem is. He has the skills to compete with anyone, but he seems to make poor decisions in fights.
Randy doesn't take damage well at all anymore. I hope for his sake they don't have him fight Shogun or Machida. Talk about a bloodbath.
Veras a bum thats why.I think all the laying on him by Randy made him tired or he's just that dumb.
How do you say:
You can't win a fight by forcing a stalemate and then say:
His only way to win was to do what he did You're counterdicting yourself
He did what he knew he had to do to win the fight[/quote:3ognz1vy]
Stop trolling me. Randy is a bum and will lose his next fight guaranteed. 17-10 what a legendary record.
I'm not contradicting myself. I'm saying his gameplan was the only thing that could possibly work. I'm at the same time saying it failed.
Natural Born Thriller
11-15-2009, 01:03 PM
its all relative to who you bet on. coutour backers say he had the right strategy to win, vera backers say all coutour did was hold him on the fence. i tend to agree with the latter.
Stop trolling me. Randy is a bum and will lose his next fight guaranteed. 17-10 what a legendary record.
I'm not contradicting myself. I'm saying his gameplan was the only thing that could possibly work. I'm at the same time saying it failed
Trolling you lol grow up.You made the last comment in this thread so I was commenting on it is all.
If Couture is a bum at 46 and he just won whats Vera then?
Making fun of Coutures record lol ::lmao:: You must really be sour. 17-10 is what happens when you fight top level competition every fight something Vera doesnt do or he'd be 4-11 instead of 11-4.Lets see how Vera does at 46 since he's not that good at 32
Truth is Couture was old whe the UFC started.He was almost 34 in his first fight .Had he been 24 his record would be much better.Liddell is only 37 and has a 21-7 record ,not much better than 17-10 and if he would fight until he was 46 he'd probably have a losing record.
I said this fight could have went either way on the cards so lets just move on from this fight and try to win the next one together ::handshake::
its all relative to who you bet on. coutour backers say he had the right strategy to win, vera backers say all coutour did was hold him on the fence. i tend to agree with the latter.
I agree .I'll be the first to admit when the scorecards were being read I didnt know whos hand they were going to raise.Had it went Vera's way I wouldnt be complaining because I know the fight was that close
Stop trolling me. Randy is a bum and will lose his next fight guaranteed. 17-10 what a legendary record.
I'm not contradicting myself. I'm saying his gameplan was the only thing that could possibly work. I'm at the same time saying it failed
Trolling you lol grow up.You made the last comment in this thread so I was commenting on it is all.
If Couture is a bum at 46 and he just won whats Vera then?
Making fun of Coutures record lol ::lmao:: You must really be sour. 17-10 is what happens when you fight top level competition every fight something Vera doesnt do or he'd be 4-11 instead of 11-4.Lets see how Vera does at 46 since he's not that good at 32
Truth is Couture was old whe the UFC started.He was almost 34 in his first fight .Had he been 24 his record would be much better.Liddell is only 37 and has a 21-7 record ,not much better than 17-10 and if he would fight until he was 46 he'd probably have a losing record.
I said this fight could have went either way on the cards so lets just move on from this fight and try to win the next one together ::handshake::
Responding that "Vera is a bum" is a troll comment and I was just responding in kind, LOL. I do think Randy is extremely overrated but can't deny he always fights great competition. Of course, GSP is 19-2 against arguably the toughest schedule ever, but I digress. We can drop it.
Chuck Liddell turns 40 next month too btw. ::hammertime::
Responding that "Vera is a bum" is a troll comment and I was just responding in kind, LOL. I do think Randy is extremely overrated but can't deny he always fights great competition. Of course, GSP is 19-2 against arguably the toughest schedule ever, but I digress. We can drop it.
Chuck Liddell turns 40 next month too btw.
I cant add ::lmao::
He may have been 37 the last time he won a fight. :)
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