11-13-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

DR Bob

#116 Cincinnati (-9) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -13 1/2.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang 11/13/09

Friday's Selections ...
NOTE: Guess I knew I was in trouble when Miami-Ohio fumbled the opening kickoff, and less than 2 minutes into the game was down 7-0.

Just can't play catch up all night long when your QB throws 3 interceptions at home. My god. This kid was money on the road at Temple against a defense 3 times better than Bowling Green but as I always say, you can't handicap turnovers and in this case, 5 of them.

Did manage to hang on with NFL winner #4 in a row on the Niners. NFL looks good again this weekend as well off the 2-0 Sunday and the Steelers on Monday night.

Feel good about Temple and the NBA tonight. Feel really good. Just want the winning Friday and the weekend will take care of itself.

Weeknight football run Tuesday thru Friday the last 4 weeks, 9-3-1. Overall football run the last 6 days 10-2 including 4 straight NFL winners. Time to build on that tonight.

Now here is why I love Temple.

15 DIME - TEMPLE OWLS - You give this Temple Owls team a manageable number and they will get it done.

This year they have covered every single number in front of them with exception of two ball games and in those ballgames they were asked to cover double digits.

Laying 14 1/2 at home to Ball State they won by 5, and laying 17 at home to Miami-Ohio they won on the last play of the game 34-32.

Let's talk about that game for a moment.

They were up big 31-13, and had Miami pinned back on their own 11 facing a 2nd and 25. They somehow convert that, move to midfield and once again face an even more horriffic 2nd and 29.

They somehow get it to 4th and 4, and another breakdown in coverage gives Miami a 25 yard TD and following a 3-and-out, Temple's soft prevent allows Miami to go on a 9 play, 62 yard drive, and all of a sudden a 31-13 destruction turns into a 31-26 ballgame.

My feeling is this kind of game couldn't have come at a better time for Temple. With their first ever MAC championship game within their fingertips, I look for a complete renewed focus facing a 2-7 Akron team they should dominate defensively.

Temple runs the football. It's what they do and they have one of the best freshman running backs in the country in Bernard Pierce.

In their 9 games this year Akron's defense has been gashed for over 100 yards in 7 of those 9 games, including Central Michigan for 326, Syracuse for 234 and Northern Illinois for 275.

Teams have been putting 8 in the box the last 3 weeks to stop Temple's run game all year long and the Owls still have put up impressive numbers.

How about 211 at Toledo, 274 at Navy and 224 last week versus Miami-Ohio.

Temple has all the edges here and with best defensive front in the MAC facing a freshman QB, pressure gets the best of Akron tonight and Temple covers another ball game here.

5 DIME - PHILADELPHIA 76ERS - Love Philly in this spot here.

Now I understand both of these teams have been terrible against the number, as they have both only covered 2 games this year.

So the bottom line is something has to give here.

However, you look a little closer and you will see the fact Utah has yet to cover on the road, while the Sixers two home losses were to Boston and Phoenix.

My feeling is the Sixers at home as a small dog is the way to go, as the Jazz continue to struggle along at 3-5, just 1-3 on the road and as I said above, 0-4 ATS on the road as well.

Look for Philly to push tempo and get the Jazz out of their halfcourt set and for the Sixers to get the home win.

5 DIME - PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS - Love going against a team that just fired their coach.

This New Orleans team is in trouble. Simple as that, and having a GM come down from the front office and coach isn't going to make a damn bit of difference. Hornets are on the way down.

Just as well Byron Scott doesn't coach this team. Let the GM come down and deal with it since it was his moves that created this mess.

New Orleans is 3-6 SU and ATS, and catch a Blazers team that is completely on the other side of that at 6-3 SU and ATS, including 4 straight wins and covers.

This game tonight is about one team knowing who they are, know how they are supposed to play and everyones roles are defined and set in place.

I'm rolling with the Blazers and the small chalk tonight

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Friday, November 13, 2009
3*Cincinnati (-9½) over West Virginia

8:00 PM -- Nippert Stadium

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Big Al McMordie
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets - Friday November 13, 2009 10:35 pm
Pick: 1 unit ATS: Denver Nuggets -3 (-110)

At 10:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Lakers. Los Angeles is starting to right itself from its poor start in Las Vegas. The World Champs dropped their first five games against the spread, but have won three straight ATS since last Friday. However, those three spread victories came at home at Staples Center, and it will be a lot more difficult getting the cover tonight at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets will have revenge from last season's playoff loss to Los Angeles, and they also come into the game tonight off an upset loss at the hands of Milwaukee. That game was Denver's fourth ATS loss in a row, and they lost three of those four games outright (with a 1-point win at Chicago on Tuesday being the only triumph). But off these string of ATS losses, Denver falls into a super 63% ATS system of mine that plays on certain teams off three or more ATS losses vs. unrested foes off 3 ATS wins. The Nuggets have had this game circled on their calendar since the schedule was announced, and they'll get the cover tonight. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns 11/13


7* Friday Feast

AKRON ZIPS (+6) over Temple Owls

Reason: I'm taking the points with AKRON. I successfully played against Temple last week. The Owls were laying 17 points and they only won by two. While I respect the Owls, I feel that they're over-valued once again and that this will prove to be a difficult spot. The Owls, who will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks, have now seen back to back games decided by three points or less. Their next two games come against Kent State and Ohio, the two schools directly behind them in the MAC East Division. In other words, it wouldn't be difficult to imagine them looking past "lowly" Akron. The Zips have admittedly had a disappointing season. However, I believe that they're more talented than their record indicates and they put it all together last week. In that game, they beat Kent State outright, winning 28-20 as +3.5 point underdogs. After having played three straight on the road, they're playing their second straight home game here. Last week's victory will provide some confidence and I expect them to be fired up to play a Friday night home game on "ESPNU." While the Owls covered at Eastern Michigan earlier, they're still 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites. During that stretch, the Zips have gone 5-3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Its also worth noting that the Zips are 15-5 SU their last 20 home games played in November and that each of their last two November home losses have come by only three points. I expect this one to also come down to the wire. *7 Friday Feast

[Mr. IWS]

Ness Legend- Denver Nuggets

[Mr. IWS]

PPP hoops

5% Oregon

4% Georgia, Seton Hall & Blazer

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS

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My 25* Big East GOY is on West Va at 8:00 ET. Brian Kelly was named Big East coach-of-the-year in each of his first two seasons at Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 22 wins the last two seasons (best two-year run in school history) and two bowls. The school's trip to last year's Orange Bowl was its first-ever BCS bowl, or prior to the BCS, first major bowl. The Bearcats were not expected to compete for the Big East title in 2009, even though the Big East did not place a single school in any of the major preseason polls (lone BCS conference not to do so). However, Cincinnati made an early statement by CRUSHING Big East preseason favorite Rutgers (Sep 7) to open the year, winning 47-15 at Rutgers. The Bearcats had just one returning defensive starter but this year's team is allowing just 16.4 PPG (T-15th in the nation) and 329.8 YPG (T-32nd). Cincy had allowed 19.6, 18.8 and 20.1 PPG the last three seasons with a D which was highly praised. This year's unit has out-preformed the previous ones, despite last week's awful effort (more on that later). The offense has been outstanding, ranking 3rd in the nation with 482.6 YPG and ranking fifth by scoring 40.0 PPG. QB Tony Pike got hurt in the team's sixth game of the season (at USF), having completed 64.3 percent of his passes with 15 TDs and just three INTs. He was getting mentioned as a dark-horse Heisman candidate but his replacement, freshman Zach Collaros, has brought another dimension to the position. Collaros ran for 132 yards with two TDs (one for 75 yards), in finishing off the team's 34-17 win at South Florida. He's since started the last three games and while he's still shown an ability to run (149 yards / 4.5 YPC), he's completed 80.5 percent of his passes (66-of-82) for 1,028 yards and eight TDs without an interception! Cincy WR Gilyard (65 catches / 8 TDs) ranks among the nation's best but don't forget Binns, who is averaging 16.2 YPC with seven TDs on 39 catches. The running game is averaging 157.9 YPG (5.2 YPC) with both Pead (51 2 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Ramsey (419 YR / 6.3 YPC) making significant contributions. Collaros helped Cincinnati rack up a school-record 711 total yards in Saturday's 47-45 win over Connecticut, throw for 480 yards and a TD plus running for 75 yards and two scores. However, what happened to Cincy's D? U Conn scored 45 points on a Cincinnati defense which entered the game allowing just 12.9 PPG plus ran for 201 yards with four TDs. Let's not be to quick to sell West Va short. The Mountaineers are 7-2 and ranked 23rd by the coaches' and 25th in the BCS. Jarrett Brown is a big and mobile QB plus RB Devine (1,010 YR / 6.0 YPC / 10 TDs) is as explosive a RB as there is in CFB. Both players have sore ankles but missing this game is "not an option!" The West Va D matches up favorably vs Cincy's, allowing 331.1 YPG and 20.9 PPG. West Va is 3-1 in the Big East (Cincy and Pitt are 5-0) but with Pitt up next in Morgantown (the day after Thanksgiving), West Va still controls its own fate. The Bearcats have won 11 in a row at home and they won 26-23 at West Virginia last year. However, the Cincy offense was held to just 260 yards in that game, its lowest total over the last two seasons. The pressure is mounting on this team, as it still has an outside chance at making the BCS title game. A Cincy team has never reached 10-0, as the 1951 team which also opened 9-0, lost its 10th game. Is that ancient history? Sure it is but remember, the last school to win at Nippert Stadium was West Va, 28-23 in November of 2007 when West Va was ranked 5th and Cincy 21st. What really has me liking West Va in this game is what's happening with the QB position at Cincy. After Collaros's fabulous performance vs U Conn, HC Kelly said he was no longer committed to Pike as his starter. "He's made it hard," Kelly said. "OK, I've changed my mind based on the way he's played the last three games. I think I have to reconsider my decision." The coach switched his stance this past Monday, saying Pike still had the job as soon as he's fully healthy. Then, a day later, Kelly named Collaros the starter for Friday's game but added that Pike will get some snaps vs West Va and would be the likely starter on November 27 against Illinois. What's going on here? "This is new territory for me," Kelly said. "I can't say that in 19 years of being a head coach that I've had this kind of a dilemma, if you will. Again, the nice part about it is that our football team has absolutely no concerns over who's leading them, if it's Zach or Tony. That's a great thing to have. Where controversies come in is when your room is split. There is no split. They know they can win and win at a high level with both these guys. That's a very unique circumstance." He hasn't convinced me, as I believe this could be a distracting situation. West Va watched the U Conn game film and MUST be confident. The Bearcats have been a bowl team in each of the last three years with the Mountaineers beating them 42-24 in 2006, 28-23 at Cincy in 2008 and then lost 26-23 last year in OT but as mentioned, held Cincy to 260 yards. I want all those points here! Big East GOY 25* West Va.